G Huxley Posted October 18, 2015 Report Posted October 18, 2015 (edited) Nope. Liberals will beat the Tories by at least fifteen seats, probably more like twenty. Hey man I can only hope, but I'm not so sanguine. Edited October 18, 2015 by G Huxley Quote
ReeferMadness Posted October 18, 2015 Report Posted October 18, 2015 Conservatives will pick up at least 20 seats in Quebec. Bq will be getting 25. Maybe in some parallel universe..... Quote Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists. - Noam Chomsky It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it. - Upton Sinclair
Moonlight Graham Posted October 18, 2015 Report Posted October 18, 2015 I still predict the Liberals will do better than the polls show because of last-minute strategic voting, at the expense of the other parties obviously. So hard to predict exact seats but something like: LPC: 145-150 CPC: 117 NDP: 70 BQ: 2 GRN: 1 Man that looks really high for the Liberals to me, maybe it will be a little closer. I really don't care about final seats as long as we have a minority and the CPC isn't leading it, which is likely. Quote "All generalizations are false, including this one." - Mark Twain Partisanship is a disease of the intellect.
blueblood Posted October 18, 2015 Report Posted October 18, 2015 My seat prediction... Cpc 110-140 Lpc 120-160 Ndp 36-100 Others: the rest Quote "Stop the Madness!!!" - Kevin O'Leary "Money is the ultimate scorecard of life!". - Kevin O'Leary Economic Left/Right: 4.00 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -0.77
ToadBrother Posted October 18, 2015 Report Posted October 18, 2015 (edited) My seat prediction... Cpc 110-140 Lpc 120-160 Ndp 36-100 Others: the rest That's a little like predicting the sun will come up tomorrow! Edited October 18, 2015 by ToadBrother Quote
blueblood Posted October 18, 2015 Report Posted October 18, 2015 (edited) That's a little like predicting the sun will come up tomorrow!I dont know about that ekos poll vs the nanos. It will be interesting. Im taking into account the "stranger things have happened" play. Im guessing a lib minority govt unfortunately for me.I am wondering if the tories did pull of a minority would be how fast party brass turfs harper as part of a temporary agreement... Edited October 18, 2015 by blueblood Quote "Stop the Madness!!!" - Kevin O'Leary "Money is the ultimate scorecard of life!". - Kevin O'Leary Economic Left/Right: 4.00 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -0.77
ReeferMadness Posted October 18, 2015 Report Posted October 18, 2015 I am wondering if the tories did pull of a minority would be how fast party brass turfs harper as part of a temporary agreement... in favor of.... a panda? Quote Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists. - Noam Chomsky It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it. - Upton Sinclair
ToadBrother Posted October 18, 2015 Report Posted October 18, 2015 I dont know about that ekos poll vs the nanos. It will be interesting. Im taking into account the "stranger things have happened" play. Im guessing a lib minority govt unfortunately for me. I am wondering if the tories did pull of a minority would be how fast party brass turfs harper as part of a temporary agreement... You mean a temporary agreement with the NDP? Quote
blueblood Posted October 18, 2015 Report Posted October 18, 2015 in favor of.... a panda? Or a gorilla Quote "Stop the Madness!!!" - Kevin O'Leary "Money is the ultimate scorecard of life!". - Kevin O'Leary Economic Left/Right: 4.00 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -0.77
blueblood Posted October 18, 2015 Report Posted October 18, 2015 You mean a temporary agreement with the NDP? With whoever i suppose Quote "Stop the Madness!!!" - Kevin O'Leary "Money is the ultimate scorecard of life!". - Kevin O'Leary Economic Left/Right: 4.00 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -0.77
ReeferMadness Posted October 18, 2015 Report Posted October 18, 2015 With whoever i suppose oh, that's so inspiring. No wonder you're so loyal. Quote Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists. - Noam Chomsky It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it. - Upton Sinclair
blueblood Posted October 18, 2015 Report Posted October 18, 2015 oh, that's so inspiring. No wonder you're so loyal. Its a what if scenario. If harper is turfed, one would wonder if a party would "play ball" (arrange to abstain from votes) for a time. Thats if (a big if) the tories pull it off. Quote "Stop the Madness!!!" - Kevin O'Leary "Money is the ultimate scorecard of life!". - Kevin O'Leary Economic Left/Right: 4.00 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -0.77
ToadBrother Posted October 18, 2015 Report Posted October 18, 2015 With whoever i suppose I had hypothesized that if the Tories were to achieve a minority that they might quickly push Harper out, install a placeholder PM and see if the NDP might support them. I can't imagine the Liberals ever supporting a Tory minority again after Ignatieff's support from 2009 to 2011. The NDP might at least consider it in the hopes of creating a bidding war between the Liberals and Tories, I'm just not sure the Tories would want to pay the kind of coin the NDP might demand in return. Would the Tories create a national daycare program? Would they accept electoral reform? Would they create a carbon tax? My thinking is that even a Harper-less Tory government would have to pony up some serious coin (real and political) to pull it off, and I'm not sure the leadership or rank and file would go along with it. I also imagine that even if the Tories pull off some sort of slim plurality that the Governor General might, as Lord Byng did 80 years ago, suggest that it was unlikely the Tories could maintain the confidence of the House, and might put sharp limitations on the Tories ability to prorogue or dissolve Parliament. In other words, the GG's position is going to be that the Tories have a right to stay in government, but they're not going to be permitted to stack the deck if the opposition truly wants them gone. Quote
ReeferMadness Posted October 18, 2015 Report Posted October 18, 2015 I had hypothesized that if the Tories were to achieve a minority that they might quickly push Harper out, install a placeholder PM and see if the NDP might support them. I can't imagine the Liberals ever supporting a Tory minority again after Ignatieff's support from 2009 to 2011. The NDP might at least consider it in the hopes of creating a bidding war between the Liberals and Tories, I'm just not sure the Tories would want to pay the kind of coin the NDP might demand in return. Would the Tories create a national daycare program? Would they accept electoral reform? Would they create a carbon tax? My thinking is that even a Harper-less Tory government would have to pony up some serious coin (real and political) to pull it off, and I'm not sure the leadership or rank and file would go along with it. I also imagine that even if the Tories pull off some sort of slim plurality that the Governor General might, as Lord Byng did 80 years ago, suggest that it was unlikely the Tories could maintain the confidence of the House, and might put sharp limitations on the Tories ability to prorogue or dissolve Parliament. In other words, the GG's position is going to be that the Tories have a right to stay in government, but they're not going to be permitted to stack the deck if the opposition truly wants them gone. And how are you going to explain this to the Harper base, most of whom think they're electing a PM, who, according to people around here, is like a CEO? Quote Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists. - Noam Chomsky It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it. - Upton Sinclair
Smallc Posted October 18, 2015 Report Posted October 18, 2015 The position is like that of a a CEO. I don't see what that has to do with anything. Quote
ToadBrother Posted October 18, 2015 Report Posted October 18, 2015 And how are you going to explain this to the Harper base, most of whom think they're electing a PM, who, according to people around here, is like a CEO? By telling them that it was the only way there could be any kind of Tory government. What are the core of Harper's supporters going to do? Leave the party? Hold their breath? Besides, even in Tories' most ideal of circumstances, a majority government, Harper was almost certainly going to retire somewhere around the half way mark of this next term. I can't imagine even Harper imagined he could push his luck with a fifth term. Quote
blueblood Posted October 18, 2015 Report Posted October 18, 2015 The position is like that of a a CEO. I don't see what that has to do with anything. Saw the video of doug ford leading a cpc rally. On ctv website It seems like hes circling harpers carcass and making baby steps to try and get in. Which makes the cpc party look like clowns. Quote "Stop the Madness!!!" - Kevin O'Leary "Money is the ultimate scorecard of life!". - Kevin O'Leary Economic Left/Right: 4.00 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -0.77
Smallc Posted October 18, 2015 Report Posted October 18, 2015 Saw the video of doug ford leading a cpc rally. On ctv website It seems like hes circling harpers carcass and making baby steps to try and get in. Which makes the cpc party look like clowns. They ran a terrible campaign overall second half. Quote
ReeferMadness Posted October 18, 2015 Report Posted October 18, 2015 By telling them that it was the only way there could be any kind of Tory government. What are the core of Harper's supporters going to do? Leave the party? Hold their breath? Besides, even in Tories' most ideal of circumstances, a majority government, Harper was almost certainly going to retire somewhere around the half way mark of this next term. I can't imagine even Harper imagined he could push his luck with a fifth term. There's a big difference between Harper stepping down in a couple of years vs Harper stepping down before delivering a throne speech. The NDP would either be negotiating with Harper (which would be suicidal) or with an interim leader(which would be idiotic). And in the NDP base, heads would be exploding. I don't see it. Quote Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists. - Noam Chomsky It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it. - Upton Sinclair
ReeferMadness Posted October 18, 2015 Report Posted October 18, 2015 The position is like that of a a CEO. I don't see what that has to do with anything. Other than you proving that you don't understand democracy - nothing. Quote Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists. - Noam Chomsky It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it. - Upton Sinclair
Smallc Posted October 18, 2015 Report Posted October 18, 2015 Other than you proving that you don't understand democracy - nothing. How does the fact that the positions are similar in function show that I don't understand democracy? Quote
ToadBrother Posted October 18, 2015 Report Posted October 18, 2015 There's a big difference between Harper stepping down in a couple of years vs Harper stepping down before delivering a throne speech. The NDP would either be negotiating with Harper (which would be suicidal) or with an interim leader(which would be idiotic). And in the NDP base, heads would be exploding. I don't see it. If the NDP could get a better deal from the Tories, why not? After all, that's going to be the price of NDP support whomever forms the next government. Quote
ReeferMadness Posted October 18, 2015 Report Posted October 18, 2015 Saw the video of doug ford leading a cpc rally. On ctv website It seems like hes circling harpers carcass and making baby steps to try and get in. Which makes the cpc party look like clowns. Even the National Post is mocking the Conservatives desperate reach-out to the Ford brothers here and here. The paper (or at least its owner) is still endorsing them, though. Pathetic. Quote Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists. - Noam Chomsky It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it. - Upton Sinclair
ReeferMadness Posted October 18, 2015 Report Posted October 18, 2015 If the NDP could get a better deal from the Tories, why not? After all, that's going to be the price of NDP support whomever forms the next government. Who are they going to do a deal with? An interim leader that won't be around to live up to his/her end? A headless caucus? Stephen Harper? Quote Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists. - Noam Chomsky It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it. - Upton Sinclair
cybercoma Posted October 18, 2015 Author Report Posted October 18, 2015 (edited) That's a little like predicting the sun will come up tomorrow! My seat prediction CPC 0-338 LPC 0-338 NDP 0-338 GRN 0-338 BQ 0-78 OTH 0-338 Edited October 18, 2015 by cybercoma Quote
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