Federal Election Polls

[Keepitsimple]

why the personal shot... are you feeling flustered, flummoxed, forlorn, fevered...? So you think sending over a few bomb-trucks... that really aren't flying to speak of... is that your interpretation of "HarperHammering"?

Nothing personal - just a fact......but to answer your question - no. I wasn't referring to our shared responsibility with allies to deal with this blight on humanity.....I was referring to those in Canada or coming to Canada - including Canadians - who would aid or abet such barbarism. Hammer them - and hammer them hard.

[cybercoma]

There's other threads for this discussion, guys.

[cybercoma]

Tories have slipped below 30 in Forum and Léger polls released today. The Liberals are also closing the gap on the NDP.

Forum: 36% NDP, 32% LPC, 24% CPC
Léger: 31% NDP, 30% LPC, 28% CPC

[Derek 2.0]

Tories have slipped below 30 in Forum and Léger polls released today. The Liberals are also closing the gap on the NDP.

Forum: 36% NDP, 32% LPC, 24% CPC

Léger: 31% NDP, 30% LPC, 28% CPC

Actually, from the previous Forum and Leger (and EKOS and Abacus earlier in the week) polls both the Tories and Liberals have improved, with the NDP dropping an average of 2-4 points in each of the four most recent polls, from each firms previous polls.

[cybercoma]

If 24% is an improvement for the Tories, you're in trouble.

[waldo]

Tories have slipped below 30 in Forum and Léger polls released today. The Liberals are also closing the gap on the NDP.

Forum: 36% NDP, 32% LPC, 24% CPC

Léger: 31% NDP, 30% LPC, 28% CPC

and the respective provincial numbers from that Leger Poll... "ABC" baby... ABC! Other than MB, SK and AB... it appears Harper is... coming undone! But you wait, you just wait - once Harper Conservatives turn their "truth ads" toward Mulcair... you just wait!

[Derek 2.0]

If 24% is an improvement for the Tories, you're in trouble.

Not worried the slightest, as Forum polls the Tories low historically, but the trending for both the Tories and Liberals in all of last weeks polls, at the expense of the NDP, should indicate the NDP are in trouble, namely in Ontario and BC..........one has to ask, why are the NDP dropping in two important regions?

[cybercoma]

They've been polling exactly where they've polled in the last two months between 30-35, the LPC between 27-30, and the CPC was between 29-32. Now we're seeing CPC numbers in the low 20s. That's bad. You may not be worried, but that's almost half the popular support from the last federal election. Make sure you shut the lights off when you're the last one to leave.

Edited September 5, 2015 by cybercoma

[Smallc]

Now we're seeing CPC numbers in the low 20s.

The last poll from the same firm a few weeks ago actually had them 1 point lower.

[waldo]

Tories have slipped below 30 in Forum and Léger polls released today. The Liberals are also closing the gap on the NDP.

Forum: 36% NDP, 32% LPC, 24% CPC

Léger: 31% NDP, 30% LPC, 28% CPC

typo on the LPC Forum number... 22% not 32%. The respective provincial numbers show only AB in the Harper column!

[cybercoma]

The last poll from the same firm a few weeks ago actually had them 1 point lower.

And? You can see their numbers falling.

[cybercoma]

typo on the LPC Forum number... 22% not 32%.

Thanks. I'll correct it above.

Edit: Actually, it's correct. http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/1370/minority-government-with-liberal-opposition-seen

Edited September 5, 2015 by cybercoma

[Smallc]

And? You can see their numbers falling.

I agree, they're in real trouble. I'm not really sad about that. What I'm sad about is the idea that Trudeau may become PM.

[cybercoma]

I agree, they're in real trouble. I'm not really sad about that. What I'm sad about is the idea that Trudeau may become PM.

I'm still wondering what debate these people watched because it wasn't the one you and I watched.

[Smallc]

I'm still wondering what debate these people watched because it wasn't the one you and I watched.

I guess I was right about people wanting a reason (any reason) to vote for the Liberals. I'm just not sure where they found it. Maybe it was his lack of substance, or the appearance that he was simply acting that won them over.

Edited September 5, 2015 by Smallc

[waldo]

Thanks. I'll correct it above.

Edit: Actually, it's correct. http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/1370/minority-government-with-liberal-opposition-seen

sorry... I got caught with that "decided/leaning" versus "expected to win" category distinction.

[cybercoma]

It was his "no one believes you!" comment.

[Smallc]

It was his "no one believes you!" comment.

Maybe it was when he told us, at the end of the speech, "that's why I'm in this - that's why I want to be your prime minister."

[cybercoma]

There is something interesting in that full Forum report though. NDP has its strongest support from voters aged 45-54 (42%). 18-34 isn't even second at 34% of the vote. They're behind both 35-44 year olds (38%) and 55-64 (35%). That's an interesting story that people won't be talking about. It isn't just the youth vote that's supporting them. In fact, the youth vote is behind every age group between 35-65 years old.

Moreover, the Conservatives have more support from 18-34 year olds (24%) than 35-44 (22%) and 45-54 (20%) year olds. There's a lot of youth indicating Conservative voting intentions. I guess making it harder for students to vote might have been a bad move, if the Tories thought it would help.

Regional breakdowns show that the Conservatives are close to being shut out of the Atlantic Provinces with only 16% support. Given that they've lost nearly all of their incumbents in Nova Scotia, this is a significant uphill battle. We know that Québec supports the NDP the way Alberta supports the Conservatives. So as it stands now the Conservative Party is looking at really abysmal numbers in 6 of the 10 provinces when you add BC to that list. Unless they're really focused on winning close ridings, they're in serious trouble. Atlantic Canada swings between the Liberals and the Conservatives. This election the pendulum is clearly swinging away from the Tories.

Edited September 5, 2015 by cybercoma

[waldo]

CBC (aggregate) Poll Tracker just updated... Harper Conservatives now in 3rd place!

[Shady]

I have no idea after watching the debate how anyone could prefer Justin over Mulcair.

[Vancouver King]

There are plenty of surprises in these newest polls but none more important (or shocking) than this set of numbers for the Ontario regional battleground (Forum):

Liberal - 42

NDP - 32

CPC - 21

Given the absolute necessity of Ontario forming the nucleus of any positive Conservative result, if these numbers reflect anywhere near current reality then this campaign is all but over for Stephen Harper.

Confirmation of anything approaching this split will move many New Democrats, myself included, into the Liberal camp.

Edited September 5, 2015 by Vancouver King

[cybercoma]

I have no idea after watching the debate how anyone could prefer Justin over Mulcair.

Mulcair's smile was creepy as hell and Trudeau gave a Disney speech at the end.

[cybercoma]

Given the absolute necessity of Ontario forming the nucleus of any Conservative result, if these numbers reflect anywhere near current reality then this campaign is all but over for Stephen Harper.

Regional numbers bounce around a lot because of the sampling methods. But if 75% of Ontario voters are casting ballots for other parties and that sticks, Harper will be crushed. It won't even be close. The CPC's seat count will be disproportionately lower than their popular support if that happens. Especially when local polling in Alberta shows the Tories behind in key ridings around Calgary and Edmonton, as well as Fort Mac.

[Vancouver King]

Despite character assassination attack ads in heavy rotation, Poll Tracker has Trudeau's Liberals poised to elect 58 seats in Ontario. I wonder what proportion of this surge is related to voter rejection of sleazy Tory campaign tactics.