Christy Clark is the new Premier Designate

[scouterjim]

Who did that analysis? I spent over two grand on life saving surgery for my dog last July and because of HST it cost over $150 more than it would have in June. Try buying a home in the Vancouver area. It will cost you a hell of a lot more. Need your home painted or a new roof? You will now be paying an additional 7% on every hour of labour that went into doing the job. HST boosters pooh pooh criticism by just talking about haircuts and restaurant bills but it is far more than that. It's everything that wasn't taxed before.

Plus the fact that it took taxes off the businesses, and stuck them on the consumer.

[sharkman]

I have mixed feelings about Christy's win. On one hand, she's been out of the game for several years and doesn't have the experience that some of the other contenders do. She has little connection with the present cabinet and so on.

On the other hand, had any of the others won, the next NDP leader could draw a connection between them and Gordon Campbell and the establishment. Now they can't do that, so will dredge the past trying to find anything embarrassing or controversial. The bottom line is having an option that is not directly connected to Gordon Campbell's goverment will be tough for the NDP to beat, and for that I breathe a sigh of relief. I think they would have beaten Campbell, and he knew it which is probably at least in part why he resigned. BTW, if Chretien had done likewise a couple of years earlier his party may not have been defeated, and that is a big part of his legacy.

[GWiz]

The anti-HST outrage is almost entirely a result of angry mooks, with no idea what the HST actually means, shouting "tax BAD! gobermint BAD!" loudly enough to create a news item.

The anti-HST outrage has been fueled by people smart enough to realize that 12% is more than 5% or 7% yet too dumb to realize that 5% + 7% = 12%.

Anti-HST outrage has fizzled dramatically now that people have seen it and realized that the HST makes barely any difference to their sad little lives. The only time people even notice the difference is when they dine out, which for the knuckle-dragging deadbeats behind the anti-HST outrage, is when they take their long-suffering spouse out for their birthday dinner to a Denny's or Swiss Chalet for the truly swank among them.

The anti-HST recall campaigns targeting MLAs have all fizzled badly, as the anti-HST crowd has been distracted by much more pressing matters like whether Stone Cold Steve Austin will defeat The Undertaker at WWF Revenge next month.

-k

Are you saying that the HST is really just a "tempest in a teapot?

The REALLY FUNNY thing about it is it's 100% on the backs of HARPER and the FEDERAL CONSERVATIVES in the first place and how he "bribed" Ontario and BC with BILLIONS in dollar benefits (Cdn TAX DOLLARS btw) to those two provinces if they sign on to the HST... I know because they tried just as hard in Manitoba and Saskebush where the Govs just said NO because they realized the "effect" it would have on "perceptions" if not anything to do with reality...

[ToadBrother]

The anti-HST outrage is almost entirely a result of angry mooks, with no idea what the HST actually means, shouting "tax BAD! gobermint BAD!" loudly enough to create a news item.

The anti-HST outrage has been fueled by people smart enough to realize that 12% is more than 5% or 7% yet too dumb to realize that 5% + 7% = 12%.

I think mocking the vast majority of the electorate probably isn't a good idea. The Liberals tried that last year, and look what happened.

Anti-HST outrage has fizzled dramatically now that people have seen it and realized that the HST makes barely any difference to their sad little lives. The only time people even notice the difference is when they dine out, which for the knuckle-dragging deadbeats behind the anti-HST outrage, is when they take their long-suffering spouse out for their birthday dinner to a Denny's or Swiss Chalet for the truly swank among them.

The anti-HST recall campaigns targeting MLAs have all fizzled badly, as the anti-HST crowd has been distracted by much more pressing matters like whether Stone Cold Steve Austin will defeat The Undertaker at WWF Revenge next month.

-k

I don't think you know a damned thing about what's going on. The desire to punish politicians has receded. The anger at the HST has not. It will almost certainly be defeated in a referendum that will likely happen in June, or possibly earlier if Clark decides to call an early election.

As to the recall, the requirements for recalling an MLA are far stricter. It was highly unlikely in even optimum circumstances that it would be recalled.

You mock the anti-HST crowd, but they wiped out a Premier, nearly brought a government smashing to the ground, and still may. BC has been down this road before, and the ruling party was all but wiped out in the process.

[ToadBrother]

Economic analysis showed that the HST would cost the average person .7% more per year than the PST and GST. That's less than a 1% increase in cost. Kimmy is, for all intents and purposes, right.

It's a much better tax, but it will be killed not because of economic arguments, but because a government lied about the state of the finances to win an election, and then needed money very quickly, too quickly to ease the notion in on voters.

I'm for the HST, myself, but think the Liberals needed a severe beating. You can be sure that in the future no government will ever try a stunt like that in BC again.

[ToadBrother]

Who will oppose her? Other than the HST, and being a woman, I think her NDP opponent is another key question.

I'm thinking the NDP, if they're given a chance, will go with Mike Farnworth. He's generally well-respected, a very experienced Parliamentarian, not exactly charismatic but more centrist than the other NDP leadership hopefuls. He certainly has the smarts and wits to take on Clark, and as I said, Clark isn't without her own baggage. The BC Rail scandal still has some major ripples, and Clark, while not implicated, was certainly a little too close to that particular action.

I think she'll have an uphill battle. Not necessarily insurmountable, but certainly no cakewalk.

[Smallc]

Who did that analysis? I spent over two grand on life saving surgery for my dog last July and because of HST it cost over $150 more than it would have in June. Try buying a home in the Vancouver area. It will cost you a hell of a lot more. Need your home painted or a new roof? You will now be paying an additional 7% on every hour of labour that went into doing the job.

Those aren't the majority of purchases though. Some years, it will cost some people more money. Most won't notice the difference.

[msj]

Who did that analysis? I spent over two grand on life saving surgery for my dog last July and because of HST it cost over $150 more than it would have in June. Try buying a home in the Vancouver area. It will cost you a hell of a lot more. Need your home painted or a new roof? You will now be paying an additional 7% on every hour of labour that went into doing the job. HST boosters pooh pooh criticism by just talking about haircuts and restaurant bills but it is far more than that. It's everything that wasn't taxed before.

You mean buying a NEW home.

Sure, there's HST on some of the closing costs but it's the additional 7% on the cost of a new home that hurts.

Of course, with the BC portion of the HST credit the cost is mostly mitigated except for people stupid enough to spend 9 times their earnings on a new home (i.e. they are spending more than $625,000 so are getting hit with the BC portion of HST pretty hard - by their own choice, of course).

As for services - yes, hair cuts and registered massage, and getting my hairy back waxed, is all taxable at 12%.

Why the heck shouldn't it be?

What's so special about me doing up a client's tax return that they should only pay 5% instead of 12% sales tax?

Why should my business be more special than, say, futureshop when it sells the same person a computer and computer program (and charges 12% tax) to do their own income tax return?

But no, instead HST will get voted down and we'll end up with a PST and higher income taxes.

Edited February 27, 2011 by msj

[ToadBrother]

Those aren't the majority of purchases though. Some years, it will cost some people more money. Most won't notice the difference.

That's not quite true. Industries with more input credits will be better off, but industries with fewer will in fact lose money. Restaurants, for instance, have very few input credits, most of the purchases being non-taxable. This is a problem with consumption taxes the world over.

All in all, consumption taxes are far better taxes, and I will vote in favor of the HST, but let's not pretend that it doesn't unduly burden certain industries. Heck, everyone recognizes consumption taxes unfairly target low income earners, which is why in pretty much all VAT jurisdictions low income earners get a rebate cheque in the mail on a regular basis, because this is indeed a serious flaw.

Another aspect of VAT/consumption taxes that opponents do not consider is that PST sales taxes are quite onerous on businesses. I can't speak for Ontario, but in my bookkeeping days I took part in a couple of PST audits here in BC, and the rules were positively arcane. I never took part in or heard of a PST audit that didn't come up with a different answer than what the business had calculated. Rules were complex, often difficult to understand, and this was very much an unseen burden on businesses big and small. VATs are incredibly easy to calculate. A business takes what they spent in VAT against what they took in on sales, and if it's a positive number, they send a cheque to the government, and if it's negative, they get a cheque. I remember when the GST first began being charged, and after an initial confusion over some of the rules (again, rules made to make the tax more equitable), I remembered saying repeatedly "Why can't they make the PST as easy as the GST."

I'm hoping that Clark and whoever she picks as Finance Minister can convince Harper to let the provincial portion drop a couple of points. If they took the billion bucks sitting there waiting for them and used that to shore up the shortfall from cutting the HST from 12% to 10%, there might be some chance to save the tax.

[Wilber]

I'm undecided on the HST even though being on a fixed income there is no doubt in my mind it lowers my standard of living.

What we need is a proper debate that covers all the pros and cons of this tax. If Campbell had done this he would still be premier.

[sharkman]

Yes, it was poorly done by Campbell who seemed to use a "trust me" strategy. This adds weight to my theory that politics, being power, tends to make people arrogant at the least, and corrupt in worst cases.

[wolfd]

That really depends. I think Mike Farnsworth would have a decent shot, he's certainly well-respected.

I have this bad feeling that the BC Liberals have just chosen the next Bill Vanderzalm.

Agreed.

For those who do not recall, Cristy Clark was deputy premier when the Basi / Virk BC Rail scandal broke. The RCMP also found secret govt documents at the home of Cristy's brother, Bruce Clark who was only an outside consultant at the time. Cristy did not rerun for her MLA seat at next election. She then decided to run for Vancouver Mayor and was beaten by Sam Sullivan. Now that there is an opening for premier and the BC rail scandal 'believed' to be over, she thinks she can come out again. We can expect to see the opposition all over her about setting up an inquiry on the BC Rail issue which saw BC taxpayers pay the $6 million legal fees for the defence - even though they lost.

Only one caucus member openly supported Cristy's run for the leadership. The others supported Falcon, Abbott or Dejong.

I predict lots of trouble ahead for Cristy Clark.

Edited February 28, 2011 by wolfd

[Posc Student]

We now have women as PMs in Canada's two extremeties - but neither have been elected.

I barely follow BC politics so Christy Clark is but a name on the page for me. I think the HST will possibly be the deciding factor in any election. (That's a whole other thread. The VAT killed the Japanese LDP and killed Canada's Progressive Conservative Party. If the US Democrats were to adopt a federal sales tax, it would kill them too.)

-----

Women can become leaders of parties. They can get elected as Mayors of small towns, federal MPs or to provincial legislatures. But we balk at electing them to the position of PM. US Democrats chose Obama over Clinton. Despite Charest's deep unpopularity, Pauline Marois is not picking up support.

In simple terms: women are not electable as leaders in the West. The obvious exception is Thatcher but she was a force to be reckoned with.

We've had two "elected" female premiers in Canada and we will have at least a third one by the end of the year.

[sharkman]

Agreed.

For those who do not recall, Cristy Clark was deputy premier when the Basi / Virk BC Rail scandal broke. The RCMP also found secret govt documents at the home of Cristy's brother, Bruce Clark who was only an outside consultant at the time. Cristy did not rerun for her MLA seat at next election. She then decided to run for Vancouver Mayor and was beaten by Sam Sullivan. Now that there is an opening for premier and the BC rail scandal 'believed' to be over, she thinks she can come out again. We can expect to see the opposition all over her about setting up an inquiry on the BC Rail issue which saw BC taxpayers pay the $6 million legal fees for the defence - even though they lost.

Only one caucus member openly supported Cristy's run for the leadership. The others supported Falcon, Abbott or Dejong.

I predict lots of trouble ahead for Cristy Clark.

Spoken like an NDP supporter.

[ToadBrother]

Spoken like an NDP supporter.

I'm not sure what in the post was false. She did only have support of one member of caucus, she was at least distaffly related to the BC Rail inquiry.

I'm not confident that she has the makings of a good premier. She's charismatic, to be sure, but to be honest charisma over the last quarter century has not spelled a good government. The last two charismatic engaging premiers; Vanderzalm and Glen Clark were disasters.

I hope for the best. It could have been worse. We could have had Gordon Campbell's clone, Kevin Falcon, but all in all, I would have preferred Abbot.

[August1991]

What's so special about me doing up a client's tax return that they should only pay 5% instead of 12% sales tax?

Why should my business be more special than, say, futureshop when it sells the same person a computer and computer program (and charges 12% tax) to do their own income tax return?

I entirely agree with msj here. The GST/HST is a "good" tax.

With that said however, I have to admit that VAT is a very unpopular tax and usually it kills political careers.

I'm undecided on the HST even though being on a fixed income there is no doubt in my mind it lowers my standard of living.

How do you come to that conclusion? And anyway, tax policy is not merely a question of who-pays-what. It's also a question of setting the right incentives so you don't get unintended consequences.

-----

To return to the thread's topic:

We've had two "elected" female premiers in Canada and we will have at least a third one by the end of the year.

Neither Christy Clark nor Kathy Dunderdale has been elected in a general election. Kim Campbell was also PM but she was never elected either.

[sharkman]

I'm not sure what in the post was false. She did only have support of one member of caucus, she was at least distaffly related to the BC Rail inquiry.

I'm not confident that she has the makings of a good premier. She's charismatic, to be sure, but to be honest charisma over the last quarter century has not spelled a good government. The last two charismatic engaging premiers; Vanderzalm and Glen Clark were disasters.

I hope for the best. It could have been worse. We could have had Gordon Campbell's clone, Kevin Falcon, but all in all, I would have preferred Abbot.

I don't understand, I never claimed anything in the post was false.

I said it was spoken like an NDP supporter because only a narrow perspective or view of Clark's history. Like I had said previously, now her competitors will be dredging the past to try and embarrass or distort.

The truth, as always, is somewhere in between 2 extremes.

[kimmy]

I entirely agree with msj here. The GST/HST is a "good" tax.

With that said however, I have to admit that VAT is a very unpopular tax and usually it kills political careers.

Gordon Campbell has graciously taken the fall for HST.

People will have the chance to vote against it in a binding referendum before they vote in the next provincial election. If it's shot down, Clark can say "the people spoke, and I listened." She can even boast that she fulfilled her pledge to move up the date of the HST referendum. If it's not shot down, then obviously it's not the great political liability people believe it to be anyway.

Whatever the outcome, I don't believe Clark will wear the HST.

To return to the thread's topic:Neither Christy Clark nor Kathy Dunderdale has been elected in a general election. Kim Campbell was also PM but she was never elected either.

Catherine Callbeck (PEI) and Pat Duncan (Yukon). I had to look it up too.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_female_premiers_in_Canada

It's a fair point, though. Why do women not do well as leaders in Canada? A number of 3rd world countries have elected female leaders. A number of European countries. There have been no female Presidents of the United States, but I believe a good number of female state governors. What's different in Canada?

-k

[August1991]

Catherine Callbeck (PEI) and Pat Duncan (Yukon). I had to look it up too.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_female_premiers_in_Canada

I vaguely remembered the Yukon and thinking that it was Audrey McLaughlin, I checked her wikipedia entry which obviously said nothing. It's the Yukon though so it hardly counts. As to PEI, I didn't know about that.

I think that Dunderdale has the most likelihood of getting elected but it's Clark's election in a large population like BC that would be significant.

It's a fair point, though. Why do women not do well as leaders in Canada? A number of 3rd world countries have elected female leaders. A number of European countries. There have been no female Presidents of the United States, but I believe a good number of female state governors. What's different in Canada?

India and Sri Lanka have had female leaders but usually as famil members of popular previous male leaders.

Europe? Thatcher in the UK and now Merkel in Germany. IMV, Thatcher is the key example because she dominated the political scene s one would expect of a good male leader. Merkel arrived to power through an odd series of events.

We can promote women through positive discrimination but that doesn't mean they will be good leaders. And all leaders in Canada must bear the weight of stereotypes. For example, the federal Liberals have chosen their leaders through a form of quota system and all federal leaders have had to face prejudice on one linguistic side or the other.

It will be interesting to see how Dunderdale carries her authority.

[ToadBrother]

Gordon Campbell has graciously taken the fall for HST.

People will have the chance to vote against it in a binding referendum before they vote in the next provincial election. If it's shot down, Clark can say "the people spoke, and I listened." She can even boast that she fulfilled her pledge to move up the date of the HST referendum. If it's not shot down, then obviously it's not the great political liability people believe it to be anyway.

Whatever the outcome, I don't believe Clark will wear the HST.

I don't know if I would phrase it like that. Let's be blunt here, the HST killed Gordon Campbell's political career and nearly smashed the Liberal caucus to pieces. Clearly it was a massive political liability, and Campbell and Hansen's comically inept attempts to justify themselves just made it worse.

The only reason the Liberals are still afloat now is because the NDP bizarrely decided to take the knives to their own leader, instead of just sitting back and letting the Liberals self-destruct.

I think the anger from the HST has faded, but the anti-HST campaign has created some serious implications for future governments in BC. I doubt any government will ever try to spring a tax on an electorate again, no matter how much the fiscal gun may be pointed at their head. At the end of the day, as much as I agree with the HST, it was introduced in disastrous fashion, and I think it's appropriate that the Liberals were pounded for it.

As to what happens next, well I think that's up to the NDP. If they have any brains they'll elect Mike Farnsworth, who has the best chance of standing up to the charm offensive of Clark. But they'll probably do something incredibly inept like select Adrien Dix and Clark will cakewalk the Liberals to a fourth term.

[Posc Student]

I vaguely remembered the Yukon and thinking that it was Audrey McLaughlin, I checked her wikipedia entry which obviously said nothing. It's the Yukon though so it hardly counts. As to PEI, I didn't know about that.

I think that Dunderdale has the most likelihood of getting elected but it's Clark's election in a large population like BC that would be significant.

India and Sri Lanka have had female leaders but usually as famil members of popular previous male leaders.

Europe? Thatcher in the UK and now Merkel in Germany. IMV, Thatcher is the key example because she dominated the political scene s one would expect of a good male leader. Merkel arrived to power through an odd series of events.

We can promote women through positive discrimination but that doesn't mean they will be good leaders. And all leaders in Canada must bear the weight of stereotypes. For example, the federal Liberals have chosen their leaders through a form of quota system and all federal leaders have had to face prejudice on one linguistic side or the other.

It will be interesting to see how Dunderdale carries her authority.

Why does the Yukon hardly count? How is that any different then in the 10 provinces?

The next year will be an interesting one for women in Canadian politics. Kathy Dunderdale will lead her party to victory in October, Christy Clark will likely lead her party to victory if they have an election relatively soon, Alberta may possibly have a female premier by September, over the next year there will be an election in Quebec which as it looks right now will lead them to electing their first female premier. PEI is also having an election soon, their opposition leader is a woman though the current government is very popular so she probably won't become premier.

[August1991]

Why does the Yukon hardly count? How is that any different then in the 10 provinces?

Hey PoliSci, you're making my argument for me.

I'm the one who usually argues that regionalism dominates Canadian federal politics - not ideology.

The next year will be an interesting one for women in Canadian politics. Kathy Dunderdale will lead her party to victory in October, Christy Clark will likely lead her party to victory if they have an election relatively soon, Alberta may possibly have a female premier by September, over the next year there will be an election in Quebec which as it looks right now will lead them to electing their first female premier. PEI is also having an election soon, their opposition leader is a woman though the current government is very popular so she probably won't become premier.

Danny Williams handpicked Dunderdale and as I say, let's see how she carries authority. (To be honest, I don't know her at all but she strikes me as a positive discrimination/affirmative action/quota choice.)

I agree however that she has a good chance for election.

Christy Clark, I dunno.

Danielle Smith, the little I know, I'm not impressed. She expresses platitudes but I reckon that Alberta is ripe for a change, as it is every 40 years or so. Smith is invited to Montreal in a month or so and I'll see her speak then.

-----

My basic point remains. Voters around the world are reticent to choose a woman as leader.

As for whether female CEOs increase shareholder value, the sample size is too small to be statistically significant.

The stock performance of female CEOs in the Fortune 500 has been tracked for years. The annual examination began in 2003, when female CEOs so out-performed men, and again in 2004, that it looked like there might be something to the gender advantage, or at least something to the theory that the glass ceiling was so difficult to crack that the women who made it to the top were more talented than their male counterparts.

Then came 2005, the ouster of Carly Fiorina at Hewlett-Packard, the decline in the number of female CEOs from nine to seven, and a 12 percentage-point stock market under-performance among the women who remained. In 2006 and 2007, performance of men and women was almost identical.

Link

I liked that, "nine to seven".

Edited March 2, 2011 by August1991

[Posc Student]

The Alberta PCs have a good chance of electing a female leader as well, that's more of what I was getting at then Danielle Smith.

[Pliny]

Well, since I live in BC I guess I should make a comment.

There's trouble ahead for Christy Clark. I know someone already said that but I think that about sums it up.

[ToadBrother]

Well, since I live in BC I guess I should make a comment.

There's trouble ahead for Christy Clark. I know someone already said that but I think that about sums it up.

There's always trouble ahead for BC premiers. BC is a province that eats its leaders and spits out the chewed remains. Heck, even when they haven't done anything wrong, like Mike Harcourt, somehow the whole political system is geared towards humiliation of premiers.