maplesyrup Posted May 30, 2004 Report Share Posted May 30, 2004 The Globe has a great (historial to present) graph here: Poll Tracker Ipsos-Reid May 22/04 Canada Libs: 35%, down 4% Cons: 26%, flatlined New Dem: 18%, up 3% Bloc: 12%, up 1% Green: 5%, flatlined Oth: 4 % Total: 100% Environics May 26/04 Canada Libs 38%, down 1% Cons 29%, flatlined New Dem: 21%, up 2% Bloc: 11%, flatlined Oth: 1% Total: 100% EKOS May 28/04 Canada Lib 38%, down 3% Con 30%, up 2% New Dem 18%, up 2% Bloc 11% Oth 3% Total: 100% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted May 30, 2004 Author Report Share Posted May 30, 2004 Canada Company Date--------Li Co ND Bl Gn Leger Marketing 02/06/2004 35 30 17 12 5 SES 01/06/2004 36 25 22 13 5 Ipsos-Reid 31/05/2004 34 30 16 ? 6 SES 31/05/2004 36 26 20 13 5 SES 30/05/2004 34 31 19 12 3 EKOS 28/05/2004 38 30 18 11 SES 28/05/2004 40 31 16 10 3 SES 27/05/2004 42 29 17 10 2 Environics 26/05/2004 38 29 21 11 SES 26/05/2004 41 28 18 11 3 Compas 22/05/2004 39 31 17 11 Ipsos-Reid 22/05/2004 35 26 18 12 5 Ipsos-Reid 20/05/2004 39 26 15 11 5 Ipsos-Reid 15/05/2004 40 24 15 11 5 Ipsos-Reid 08/05/2004 38 26 16 10 5 Compas 03/05/2004 39 27 20 12 EKOS 01/05/2004 41 28 16 Ipsos-Reid 30/04/2004 40 23 18 11 5 Environics 23/04/2004 39 29 19 11 Ipsos-Reid 13/04/2004 35 28 18 10 5 Ipsos-Reid 27/03/2004 38 27 15 10 5 Ipsos-Reid 09/03/2004 38 26 17 12 4 EKOS 28/02/2004 42 32 15 9 Ipsos-Reid 20/02/2004 36 27 17 11 4 Praxicus 20/02/2004 36 28 21 13 2 Ipsos-Reid 17/02/2004 35 27 17 11 5 Ipsos-Reid 14/02/2004 39 24 18 10 5 Compas 03/02/2004 49 19 17 9 SES 02/02/2004 48 23 15 11 3 Ipsos-Reid 24/01/2004 48 19 16 10 4 EKOS 21/12/2003 56 25 12 9 Ipsos-Reid 14/12/2003 48 21 14 9 4 Data copied from another internet website Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
playfullfellow Posted May 30, 2004 Report Share Posted May 30, 2004 Nice work MS, glad to see someone has some free time on the weekends to seek out info This is not a poke or jab at you MS, some of us poor saps have to keep working through the weekends to keep the boss happy. Saved me a ton of time reading through endless reports and going buggy eyed. Any poll that shows the Liberals losing support is a good poll. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted May 30, 2004 Author Report Share Posted May 30, 2004 Check this out!!! Polling May 28th to 30th (Random Telephone Survey of 600 Canadians, MoE ±4.1%, 19 times out of 20). Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Decided Voters (Change from May 25th, 1st Nightly Tracking Poll Results) LIB - 34% (-7) CP - 31% (+3) NDP - 19% (+1) BQ - 12% (+1) GP - 3% (0) *20% of Canadians were undecided (-1) Appetite for Change (Change from May 25th, 1st Nightly Tracking Poll Results) Time for Change - 55% (+3) Liberals doing a good job - 26% (-2) Agree with neither - 11% (0) Unsure - 9% (-1) Best PM (Change from May 25th, 1st Nightly Tracking Poll Results) Martin - 32% (+1) Unsure -22% (-2) Harper - 17% (0) Layton - 12% (+3) None - 11% (-5) Duceppe - 7% (+4) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted May 30, 2004 Author Report Share Posted May 30, 2004 Liberals are looking at a minority, Tobin says Minority, but whose minority? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
takeanumber Posted May 30, 2004 Report Share Posted May 30, 2004 They better come up with alternatives at that Cabinet meeting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted May 30, 2004 Author Report Share Posted May 30, 2004 WE'VE GOT A HORSE RACE Lib support collapses, down 7 % ... Both Conservatives and NDP up 3 % each ... 1/5 Canadians undecided"Pierre, Friday and Saturday realized noticeable drops in support for the Liberals. Based on our national polling completed last night, the Liberals are at 34% and the Conservatives at 31%. With a MoE of 4.1, last night the parties are in a statistical tie. Although Liberal support has dropped, there has been no significant change in Martin's personal numbers. Looks like voter angst may be directed at the Liberal brand." - Nik Nanos, SES Research Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted June 1, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 After a couple days of heavy opposition attacks on the Liberals late last week (Ontario Budget/ Homelessness), the Liberal numbers did dip for two days. By the weekend, the Liberals started to de-couple from the Ontario Liberal Budget and pushed back on the homeless issue. These voter shifts are indicative of a volatile environment. Under the right confluence of events, this election is up-for-grabs. Polling May 28 to 30 (Random Telephone Survey of 600 Canadians, MoE ±4.1%, 19 times out of 20). Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Our tracking polls allow for a daily barometer on the activities of the respective campaigns. Decided Voters (Change from May 25th, 1st Nightly Tracking Poll Results) LIB: 36% (-5) CP: 26% (-2) NDP: 20% (+2) BQ: 13% (+2) GP: 5% (+2) *19% of Canadians were undecided (-2) Appetite for Change (Change from May 25th, 1st Nightly Tracking Poll Results) Time for Change: 53% (+1) Liberals doing a good job: 28% (0) Agree with neither: 11% (0) Unsure: 9% (-1) Best PM (Change from May 25th, 1st Nightly Tracking Poll Results) Martin: 32% (+1) Unsure: 25% (+1) Harper: 16% (-1) Layton: 10% (+1) None: 12% (-4) Duceppe: 6% (+3) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay Dee Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 I find polls and ratings a bit hard to swallow including exit polls.... Has anyone called you as to who you will be voting for or what radio station you listen to or TV news you watch? At 66 I'm still waiting for the first pollster to call me.....other than sell me a vacuum cleaner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted June 1, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 Look at the strength of the Bloc here: Libs 36% Cons 26% New Dem 20% Bloc 13% Grn 5% I don't think I have ever seen the Bloc polling figures so high. How may seats is this going to translate into, for them, in Quebec? -------------------------------------------- Someone who posts here stated he was contacted by a pollster awhile back. What do you mean by exit polls? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay Dee Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 Do you think when a pollster discovers a trend after calling 100 people when he/she should have called 687...they have a tendency to make up some numbers and go home early? Just curious as Canucks should be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay Dee Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 Exit polls are often used south of the border although they are starting to catch on here.......a team of reporters, or party faithful, stand outside polling stations and ask voters who they voted for....thus getting a trend to report back to candidate(s), supporters and media......... Mind you...one wonders how many folks fib a bit to keep media et al at bay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay Dee Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 Speaking of polls...it is my understanding that the brass at CBC have decided not to refer to polls during the weeks leading up to the federal election......inasmuch as Mother CBC feels polls might influence voters not to vote if it appears one party is ahead by a considerable amount prior to folks officially going to the polls. The heavily federally tax funded national communications giant is to be commended (for a change) for taking the high road...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted June 1, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 I think if you look back, say at the Ipsos-Reid polling results just before the last federal election, they were almost dead on. Exit polling does not sound very healthy. What about time zones? We have media blackouts but with the communications today, using the 'net, wireless equipment, the people in western Canada can find out the results before they vote - this appears to potentially be a significant issue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
takeanumber Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 At 66 I'm still waiting for the first pollster to call me.....other than sell me a vacuum cleaner. It's pretty neat how they do polls. Because the way the math works out, they only really need 3100 people for a good national sample. The problem is that these national samples suck for inferring regional results. I've done data analysis and found that they only interviewed 8 francophones outside Quebec etc... Chances are good you'll go your entire life without anybody ever calling you. I've been called exactly once. The heavily federally tax funded national communications giant is to be commended (for a change) for taking the high road...... I agree. 'bandwagon effect'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 I don't think I have ever seen the Bloc polling figures so high.The sample size is 600 which means that the margin of error is large. In the case of the BQ, there's a 95% chance the true number is somewhere between 12% and 14%. I'd say they are closer to 12%.The front page headline in La Presse today was about Harper organizing a transition team. That kind of headline is a killer for the Liberals because their main argument (sole argument?) is for people to have an MP in government. In general though, there is little interest in the campaign here. I think people have already decided. Do you think when a pollster discovers a trend after calling 100 people when he/she should have called 687...they have a tendency to make up some numbers and go home early?Unlikely. The callers wouldn't recognize any trend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted June 1, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 Speaking of polls...it is my understanding that the brass at CBC have decided not to refer to polls during the weeks leading up to the federal election......inasmuch as Mother CBC feels polls might influence voters not to vote if it appears one party is ahead by a considerable amount prior to folks officially going to the polls.The heavily federally tax funded national communications giant is to be commended (for a change) for taking the high road...... Or, another way of looking at it, the CBC is not very comfortable with the current polling results. CBC is a huge rah, rah Liberal fan with the exception of Cons supporters like Rex Murphy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted June 1, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 Ipsos-Reid: May 31,2004, May 22, 2004 CANADA Libs: 34%, down 1%, 35% (down 4%) Cons: 30%, up 4%, 26% (flat) New Dem: 16%, down 2%, 18% (up 3%) Bloc: Grn: 6%, up 1%, 5% Oth: 2%, down 2%, 4% Undecide/Not Voting: 12% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted June 1, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 Company Date--------Li Co ND Bl Gn Ipsos-Reid 31/05/2004 34 30 16 ? 6 SES 31/05/2004 36 26 20 13 5 SES 30/05/2004 34 31 19 12 3 EKOS 28/05/2004 38 30 18 11 SES 28/05/2004 40 31 16 10 3 SES 27/05/2004 42 29 17 10 2 Environics 26/05/2004 38 29 21 11 SES 26/05/2004 41 28 18 11 3 Compas 22/05/2004 39 31 17 11 Ipsos-Reid 22/05/2004 35 26 18 12 5 Ipsos-Reid 20/05/2004 39 26 15 11 5 Ipsos-Reid 15/05/2004 40 24 15 11 5 Ipsos-Reid 08/05/2004 38 26 16 10 5 Compas 03/05/2004 39 27 20 12 EKOS 01/05/2004 41 28 16 Ipsos-Reid 30/04/2004 40 23 18 11 5 Environics 23/04/2004 39 29 19 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stoker Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 NDP down two points Not far behind is the Conservatives, who have jumped four points to 30 per cent. Support for the New Democratic Party has dropped slightly to 16 per cent, down two points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stoker Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 I didn't see that you posted the latest results MS......You see you usally BOLD the NDP's numbers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kliege Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 In British Columbia the NDP is 14%...so much for Ladys Man..Mans Mans..Man about town Jack Layton or as i like to call him now Wacko Jacko Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted June 1, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 Tide turning Harper's way The worst may still be to come. A full two-thirds of those questioned in the latest poll believe it is time for a change of government. Only 29 per cent think the Liberals deserve to be re-elected.This suggests, Mr. Bricker said, that some of the 34 per cent of voters who support the Liberal Party might turn against them. The momentum is certainly not with the governing party. Only 11 per cent of voters say their opinion of the Liberals and Mr. Martin has improved in recent weeks, compared with 47 per cent who say it has worsened. This score of "negative 36" compares to "plus 18" for the Conservatives and Mr. Harper, and "plus 15" for the NDP and Leader Jack Layton. The score in Quebec for the Bloc Québécois and Leader Gilles Duceppe is "plus 17." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay Dee Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 News reports this morning seem to indicate Martin has been reading the tea leaves and has called on a couple of Chretien p.r. people to help bolster Grits' cause out on the hustings......reminds me of Bush NOW seeking UN help to sort out things in Iraq ............. Most of the networks and dailies today talking about Liberals losing as many as 30 seats this time around........ Sure pleased Mrs. Martin hasn't decide on painting rooms in the Prime Minister's official residence............ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay Dee Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 Always amazed at election promises that result in hard earned tax dollars often being squandered. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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