maplesyrup Posted June 1, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 SES poll released June 1, 2004 (Day 7) Canada Libs: 36%, down 5% Cons: 25%, down 3%, New Dem: 22%, up 4% Bloc: 13%, up 2% Grn: 5%, up 2% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted June 1, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 Company Date--------Li Co ND Bl Gn SES 01/06/2004 36 25 22 13 5 Ipsos-Reid 31/05/2004 34 30 16 ? 6 SES 31/05/2004 36 26 20 13 5 SES 30/05/2004 34 31 19 12 3 EKOS 28/05/2004 38 30 18 11 SES 28/05/2004 40 31 16 10 3 SES 27/05/2004 42 29 17 10 2 Environics 26/05/2004 38 29 21 11 SES 26/05/2004 41 28 18 11 3 Compas 22/05/2004 39 31 17 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay Dee Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 One has the feeling, MAPLESYRUP, that all parties are going to track polls 24/7 until the bitter end. Not certain if this is the Year of the REat or Year of the Polls........ As for news outlets.......it is easy to report as well as write columns and editorials about since there is very seldom any heavy lifting. I confess...been there, done that....long retired from chasing ambulances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay Dee Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 One has the feeling, MAPLESYRUP, that all parties are going to track polls 24/7 until the bitter end. Not certain if this is the Year of the Rat or Year of the Polls........ As for news outlets.......it is easy to report as well as write columns and editorials about since there is very seldom any heavy lifting. I confess...been there, done that....long retired from chasing ambulances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay Dee Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 Newly minted Tory Party seems to be catching second wind...at rate polls are showing up on an almost daily basis now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted June 1, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 Subject: Day 7 CPAC- SES Tracking - Positive Signs for NDP Coming Out of Weekend Side Note - Canada's Top Pollsters Agree - Comparison of CPAC-SES Nightly Tracking to Ekos and Ipsos Numbers. May 25 to 27 Sample (SES - 600, Ekos - 1,306) Margin of Accuracy (SES ±4.1, Ekos ±2.7) Liberals (SES 40, Ekos 38) Conservatives (SES 31, Ekos 30) May 27 to 29 Sample (SES - 600, Ipsos - 1,000) Margin of Accuracy (SES ±4.1, Ipsos ±3.1) Liberals (SES 34, Ipsos 34) Conservatives (SES 31, Ipsos 30) But with CPAC-SES you get nightly numbers the next day, throughout the campaign. As of last night, compared to the beginning of the campaign, NDP support is up 4 points and Layton as best candidate for Prime Minister, is also up 4 points. The aftermath of last week saw the Liberals and Conservatives in a virtual dead heat. Now, beyond the weekend, we see some movement in favour of the NDP. Polling May 29 to 31 (Random Telephone Survey of 600 Canadians, MoE ±4.1%, 19 times out of 20). Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Our tracking polls allow for a daily barometer on the activities of the respective campaigns. Decided Voters (Change from May 25th, 1st Nightly Tracking Poll Results) LIB - 36% (-5) CP - 25% (-3) NDP - 22% (+4) BQ - 13% (+2) GP - 5% (+2) *17% of Canadians were undecided (-4) Appetite for Change (Change from May 25th, 1st Nightly Tracking PollResults) Time for Change - 53% (+1) Liberals doing a good job - 28% (0) Agree with neither - 11% (0) Unsure - 8% (-2) Best PM (Change from May 25th, 1st Nightly Tracking Poll Results) Martin - 33% (+2) Unsure -22% (-2) Harper - 17% (0) Layton - 13% (+4) None - 10% (-6) Duceppe - 6% (+3) On the SES website (www.sesresearch.com), we post updated daily longitudinal tracking charts and details on the questions and the methodology each afternoon. For any media use of the polling data, we need to clearly identify the sponsor (CPAC). Please refer to the research as the CPAC-SES Nightly Tracking. Feel free to forward this e-mail. Cheers, Nik Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kliege Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 Regional Breakdown: Canada: LIB: 34 CPC: 30 NDP: 16 BQ: 12 Atlantic: LIB: 44 CPC: 25 NDP: 25 Québec: LIB: 29 BQ: 44 Ontario: LIB: 36 CPC: 36 NDP: 20 Sask/Manitoba: LIB: 36 CPC: 30 NDP: 25 Alberta: CPC: 49 LIB: 27 NDP: 14 British Columbia: CPC: 39 LIB: 34 NDP: 14 Seat Projection: LIB: 122-126 CPC: 107-111 NDP: 15-19 BQ: 56-60 (Liberals destroyed in Québec.) SEC as no record in political polling and there sample is much to small(200 each day), plus they have yet to come out with regional numbers which has to send off red flag about the credibility. Ipos has decades of a record in political polling in this country. Its lot more credibility coming from Ipsos than SES Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted June 1, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 I guess you didn't read this: Side Note - Canada's Top Pollsters Agree - Comparison of CPAC-SES Nightly Tracking to Ekos and Ipsos Numbers. The latest polling results for SES are for 600 people Margin of error: +/- 4.1%, 19 times out of 20 So, as a result, it shows: Conservatives and NDP in a dead heat for second place Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kliege Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 I doubt that with a leader Wacko Jacko. The race is between the Liberals and CPC with the NDP way back. Where are the regional numbers in the SEC poll? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted June 1, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 Compare the survey dates for the most recent SES and Ipso-Reid polls. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kliege Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 I have and the poll that SEC had Friday seems to reflect what the Ipos had on Monday. But seriously there is no way that the NDP or the CPC are in a dead heat and that will present itself on election when the CPC gets over 100 seats and the NDP 25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted June 1, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 When polls show the New Dem rising, I don't expect Libs or Cons supporters to be happy, and the same when polls show the Cons rising, the New Dems and the Liberals won't be happy. Kliege you look at polls through Conservative coloured glasses. The NDP has risen 4% nationally, showing them in a dead heat with the Cons for second place, and Jack Layton has risen 4% as best choice fror Prime Minister, in the most recent SES poll. Don't shoot the messenger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kliege Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 But what does 20% mean when its all located in Toronto, Vancouver and Halifax. What does mean? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
idealisttotheend Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 Big time seats for the NDP if it were true, if the NDP could copncentrate their support like that they'd surely take 40 or 50 seats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kliege Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 No not really because its so concetrated that means they are in the running for less seats then the CPC. Ontario most NDP support is located in Toronto and Parts of the North, Windsor and Hamilton. The rest of the province they pretty much a third party protest vote. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kliege Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 Maple: SES just released the long awaited regional breakdown based on the 5 day poll of 1,000 May 26-30. They are as follows: Atlantic Libs. 41% Cons. 30% NDP 26% Green 2% Quebec BQ 49% Libs. 30%( this is what is given the Liberals a higher poll then in Ipos) Cons. 13% NDP 5% Green 3% Ontario Libs. 39% Cons. 32% NDP 25% Green 3% Man/Sask Libs. 41% This seems strange Cons. 35% NDP 23% Green 1% Alberta Cons. 53% ( reason why the CPC as loss % in overall poll) Libs. 31% NDP 11% Green 5% BC Libs. 34% ( Now this is odd and im not believeing it, The race out in B.C is going to be between the NDP and CPC, the Liberals just have to much baggage with Campbell and the appointed candidates) Cons. 29% NDP 29% Green 8% Overall I think think what is proping up the Liberals and the NDP is the race in British Columbia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted June 1, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 Kliege....can you post a URL link for those SES regional polls. Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
takeanumber Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 3 way race in BC. And here John Renolds was on last night saying that they could sweep the province. Thank you for posting the SES polls. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kliege Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 for the most part the regional numbers in SES and in Ipsos-Reid are not that far apart except in BC, where the Ipsos numbers seem absurd. The EKOS poll had Cons. 37, NDP 30, Libs. 29 in B....something isn't right in that province. I have a feeling that someones numbers are being over polled and i think its the Liberals Regional numbers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kliege Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 Regional numbers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted June 1, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 Kliege.....sorry to bother you but am unable to access that SES link for the regional polling you posted. Could you post a highlighted link here so we can all just clink on it and it will bring us to the article. Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay Dee Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 Barrie TV station noted tonight.....Grits and Tories deadlocked at 36 percent each in Yours to Discover in Battle for Ontario, according to most recent polls today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay Dee Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 If approved, every four years we will be going to the polls in a provincial election (first Tues in Oct.) if Queen's Park has its way. There are reports that Ontarians are turning their backs in record numbers on federal Grits after provincial Grits tabled their budget over a week ago....which resulted in many a campaign promises biting the dust. :angry: :angry: :angry: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 Here it is here: SES Research 30 May Regional Comparison I frankly would not put a lot of credence in this particular poll. (Take a look at the sample sizes in the regions. Be careful about the outliers, or that one weird case in 20.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted June 1, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 August1991.....thanks. The sample size is identical as the Ipsos-Reid poll that came out yesterday - 1,000 Canadians, Canadawide. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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