Slavik44 Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 guys these two polls technically fall in line... Ipsos-Reid Liberal 34 Cons 30 NDP 16 Green 6 SES Liberal 36 Cons 26 NDP 20 Bloc 13 Green 5 SES has an error margin of 4% The liberal results are within 2% of each other The CPC results are within 4% of each other The NDP results are within 4% of each other The Bloc results are within 1% of each other (assumes missing 14% in ipsos is bloc) The Green's results are with in 1% of each other Personally i will put more emphasis on the Ipsos poll simply because it's margin of error is a percent lower. The SES poll error margin allows for the ipsos to be correct, the ipsos error margin however does not allow for the SES to be completely correct, In other words the cons are most likely 27% or higher and the NDP is most likely 18-19%, the liberals are msot like 34-36%, and the block is most likely 13-14%, and yes the greens are most likely 5-6% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted June 1, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 Actually for SES if the margin of error is 4% the NDP could have 24%, and the Conservatives 22%. Having said that, I will just accept what the polls say without putting a Cons, or Lib, or New Dem spin on them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kliege Posted June 1, 2004 Report Share Posted June 1, 2004 After Paul Martin and his gangsters ran some very powerful Liberals out of power, I have begun to wonder if they are set to strike back at the end of this election. The Liberal civil war is still raging, with infighting and calls for resignations after only the 1st week. The people making these statements are not stupid; they are playing right into the media. The plan now may be to totally self-destruct this election right on top of Paul Martin's head. Chretien Liberals are pissed at Paul Martin and know that a total loss of power would not only humiliate the former Finance Minister, it will also push him out of power within the Liberal Party. By the end of next week will we hear subtle calls for Paul Martin's head? Liberals that have been publicly humiliated and driven from power may be the final trump card that topples Paul Martin's hand. They can take their grassroots supporters and help their friends while ensuring that grassroots base does not help Paul Martin's puppets in key areas like BC and Ontario. If they do it right, Paul Martin takes the fall for ADSCAM, the Liberal loss etc while they look like the heroes, rebuilding their party from the ashes. I doubt we, or Paul Martin, has heard the last from Jean, Allen, Brian, Herb, Sheila or John. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slavik44 Posted June 2, 2004 Report Share Posted June 2, 2004 Actually for SES if the margin of error is 4% the NDP could have 24%, and the Conservatives 22%. Having said that, I will just accept what the polls say without putting a Cons, or Lib, or New Dem spin on them. no you missed what i said. We have two polls from basically the same time frame. They differ but by no more then 4%. The Margin of error for one of the polls is 4%...that adds up..both polls are acurate, However the more accurate poll 3% M.E suggest that the cons must be atleast a percent higher then what is shown in the SES poll, and the NDP atleast a percent lower then what is shown in the SES poll to make it line up with the more acurate poll. It is not about putting a spin on anything it is about correlating the M.E to come to some conclusions from those polls if they fit into the 19 in the 19 out of 20. to suggest what you suggest would require the Ipsos poll to be that 1/20 and even then most of the 1 in 20 polls are still accurate by about 6%, which would still put the cons lowest possible popularity at 24% not 22, you simply saw some numbers and did not look into what i was saying, which was: Technically these polls both are correct, but due to the ipsos lower M.E it cna be assume that the Cons are atleast 1% higher then the SES poll shows to fit with the 3% M.E of the Ipsos poll and the NDP are atleast 1% lower to fit with the Ipsos poll as well. that is what i was sayign and if you look at the numbers, it has nothign to do with spin, it has everythign to do with observable fact. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted June 2, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 2, 2004 Leger Marketing polling results released June 2, 2004 Canada Libs: 35% Cons: 30% New Dem: 17% Bloc: 12% Grn: 5% Canada Company Date-----------Li Co ND Bl Gn SES CPAC 02/06/2004 37 29 19 11 05 Leger Marketing 02/06/2004 35 30 17 12 5 SES 01/06/2004 36 25 22 13 5 Ipsos-Reid 31/05/2004 34 30 16 ?? 6 SES 31/05/2004 36 26 20 13 5 SES 30/05/2004 34 31 19 12 3 EKOS 28/05/2004 38 30 18 11 SES 28/05/2004 40 31 16 10 3 SES 27/05/2004 42 29 17 10 2 Environics 26/05/2004 38 29 21 11 SES 26/05/2004 41 28 18 11 3 Compas 22/05/2004 39 31 17 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay Dee Posted June 2, 2004 Report Share Posted June 2, 2004 Not even two weeks into the campaign and all parties can't help but check the polls......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay Dee Posted June 2, 2004 Report Share Posted June 2, 2004 Add it to a crowded poll takers' view on the pending 38th national election: Ipsos Reid's latest seat count: Tories and Bloc could form a coalition.........Grits and NDP could not........ Armed with this information chances are all camps are really scrambling to get out the votes in every knook and cranny in the country. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Hardner Posted June 2, 2004 Report Share Posted June 2, 2004 Tories and Bloc could form a coalition.........Grits and NDP could not........ But Liberals and Bloc could. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted June 2, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 2, 2004 If these trends continue minority government may be a mute point. We may be getting a Conservative majority government. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Hardner Posted June 2, 2004 Report Share Posted June 2, 2004 That's a VERY tall order. Without Quebec, and a strong showing in Atlantic Canada, they would need to win something like 3/4 of the seats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted June 2, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 2, 2004 I wonder if some Quebeckers, not necessarily the Bloc supporters, as well as voters in other provinces, when they see the trends, not to be left out of government, will switch to the Conservatives. The bandwagon effect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
takeanumber Posted June 2, 2004 Report Share Posted June 2, 2004 Partisans tend to overhype their expectations of how their party will do. (Blais et al., Anatomy of a Liberal Victory, 2001) (See: 2000 "Stockwell Day" fiasco in Ontario, Calgary Herald Coverage.) (See: 1993 Federal Election) (See: 2003 NB Election) It's neat to see though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kliege Posted June 2, 2004 Report Share Posted June 2, 2004 It very clear now that the CPC has the big mo in this election, it seems to be building up week by week. The debates will be central to any victory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay Dee Posted June 2, 2004 Report Share Posted June 2, 2004 ....."but Liberals and bloc could".........gosh that would be a marrriage made in hell......since there never has been any love loss/lost between these two parties....but then again politics makes strange bed fellows...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted June 2, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 2, 2004 Third publicly released poll mirrors CPAC - SES Nightly Tracking. Sample (SES - 600, Leger - 3,107) MoE (SES 4.1, Leger 1.8) Liberals (SES 37, Leger 35) Conservatives (SES 29, Leger 30) NDP (SES 19, Leger 17) BQ (SES 11, Leger 12) Green (SES 5, Leger 5) CPAC-SES polling was the first to show the Liberal-Conservative gap narrowing (LP 34, CP 31) last Saturday. New Liberal campaign tactics seem to be working. In the current scenario, McGuinty taking shots at Martin is good for federal Liberal support. As of last night, the Liberals lead the Conservatives by eight points. Polling May 30 to June 1 (Random Telephone Survey of 600 Canadians, MoE ±4.1%, 19 times out of 20). Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Our tracking polls allow for a daily barometer on the activities of the respective campaigns. Decided Voters (Change from May 25th, 1st Nightly Tracking Poll Results) LIB - 37% (-4) CP - 29% (+1) NDP - 19 (+1) BQ - 11% (0) GP - 5% (+2) *14% of Canadians were undecided (-7) Appetite for Change (Change from May 25th, 1st Nightly Tracking Poll Results) Time for Change - 55% (+3) Liberals doing a good job - 29% (+1) Agree with neither - 8% (-3) Unsure - 8% (-2) Best PM (Change from May 25th, 1st Nightly Tracking Poll Results) Martin - 32% (+1) Unsure -22% (-2) Harper - 20% (+3) Layton - 12% (+3) None - 10% (-6) Duceppe - 4% (+1) On the SES website (www.sesresearch.com), we post updated daily longitudinal tracking charts and details on the questions and the methodology each afternoon. For any media use of the polling data, we need to clearly identify the sponsor (CPAC). Please refer to the research as the CPAC-SES Nightly Tracking. Feel free to forward this e-mail. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted June 2, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 2, 2004 Canada Company Date-----------Li Co ND Bl Gn SES CPAC 03/06/2004 35 32 19 09 04 SES CPAC 02/06/2004 37 29 19 11 05 Leger Marketing 02/06/2004 35 30 17 12 5 SES 01/06/2004 36 25 22 13 5 Ipsos-Reid 31/05/2004 34 30 16 ?? 6 SES 31/05/2004 36 26 20 13 5 SES 30/05/2004 34 31 19 12 3 EKOS 28/05/2004 38 30 18 11 SES 28/05/2004 40 31 16 10 3 SES 27/05/2004 42 29 17 10 2 Environics 26/05/2004 38 29 21 11 SES 26/05/2004 41 28 18 11 3 Compas 22/05/2004 39 31 17 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kliege Posted June 2, 2004 Report Share Posted June 2, 2004 I don't understand SES' nightly tracking. Yesterday, it published these results: Liberals - 35% Conservatives - 25% NDP - 22% Bloc - 13% Green - 5% Today, it publishes these results: Liberals -- 37% (-4%) Conservatives -- 29% (+1) NDP -- 19% (+1) Bloc -- 11% (0) Green -- 5% (+2) Would it be wrong for me to think that the +/- changes should show: Liberal: +3 CPC: + 4 NDP: -3 BQ: -2 Green: 0 Regardless SEC numbers are all over the map and unreliable in my opinion. The voting public doesn't change intentions so rapidly and overnight. Something is going on at SEC and I don't think its kosher Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted June 2, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 2, 2004 SES CPAC are dead on (see their press release today), and completely in tune with the other polling that have come out during the election campaign. From analysing their polling data, SES CPAC are the first to spot trends. BTW those SES CPAC + or - are not the changes from the previous day. They are the changes from May 25, when they started polling, I believe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kliege Posted June 2, 2004 Report Share Posted June 2, 2004 Maple do you work for SES? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Hardner Posted June 2, 2004 Report Share Posted June 2, 2004 ....."but Liberals and bloc could".........gosh that would be a marrriage made in hell......since there never has been any love loss/lost between these two parties....but then again politics makes strange bed fellows...... Probably less strange than a BLoc/CPC marriage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted June 3, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 3, 2004 Characterizations of the Liberal campaign as desperate over the past two days have put the Conservatives into striking distance of the Liberals as of polling completed last night: Liberals 35%, Conservatives 32%, NDP 19%. The percentage of Canadians saying it is time for a change is also up to 58%, 6 points higher than the start of the campaign. Polling May 31 to June 2 (Random Telephone Survey of 600 Canadians, MoE ±4.1%, 19 times out of 20). Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Our tracking polls allow for a daily barometer on the activities of the respective campaigns. Decided Voters (Change from May 25th, 1st Nightly Tracking Poll Results) LIB - 35% (-6) CP - 32% (+4) NDP - 19 (+1) BQ - 9% (-2) GP - 4% (+1) *13% of Canadians were undecided (-8) Appetite for Change (Change from May 25th, 1st Nightly Tracking Poll Results) Time for Change - 58% (+6) Liberals doing a good job - 26% (-2) Agree with neither - 10% (-1) Unsure - 7% (-3) Best PM (Change from May 25th, 1st Nightly Tracking Poll Results) Martin - 30% (-1) Unsure -20% (-4) Harper - 22% (+5) Layton - 13% (+4) None - 11% (-5) Duceppe - 5% (+2) On the SES website (www.sesresearch.com), we post updated daily longitudinal tracking charts and details on the questions and the methodology each afternoon. Watch PrimeTime Politics at 8 pm EST (Monday to Friday) to get a detailed briefing of the numbers. For any media use of the polling data, we need to clearly identify the sponsor (CPAC). Please refer to the research as the CPAC-SES Nightly Tracking. Feel free to forward this e-mail. Cheers, Nik Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted June 3, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 3, 2004 Canada Company Date-----------LI CO ND BL GN Ipsos-Reid 04/06/2004 32 31 17 11 ?? SES CPAC 04/06/2004 37 34 17 09 03 SES CPAC 03/06/2004 35 32 19 09 04 SES CPAC 02/06/2004 37 29 19 11 05 Leger Marketing 02/06/2004 35 30 17 12 5 SES 01/06/2004 36 25 22 13 5 Ipsos-Reid 31/05/2004 34 30 16 ?? 6 SES 31/05/2004 36 26 20 13 5 SES 30/05/2004 34 31 19 12 3 EKOS 28/05/2004 38 30 18 11 SES 28/05/2004 40 31 16 10 3 SES 27/05/2004 42 29 17 10 2 Environics 26/05/2004 38 29 21 11 SES 26/05/2004 41 28 18 11 3 Compas 22/05/2004 39 31 17 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kliege Posted June 4, 2004 Report Share Posted June 4, 2004 The June 4th numbers (polled June 1-3) have: 37% Lib 34% Con 17% NDP 09% BQ 03% Grn The Liberals seems to have stop the bleeding in Quebec, but I think that may be short lived Gilles will go after Martin like never before in the French debate. Harper and Layton will be second thoughts two them. Conservatives support seems to have risen mostly due to the coalition of former P.C and Allience voters determined to ousted the Liberal. NDP is stable going from 16-to 19% in very poll i see, this may be they are doing very well in urban areas of the country. End Of week 2 Election 2004. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted June 4, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 4, 2004 Canada Company Date-----------LI CO ND BL GN SES CPAC 04/06/2004 37 34 17 09 03 SES CPAC 03/06/2004 35 32 19 09 04 SES CPAC 02/06/2004 37 29 19 11 05 Leger Marketing 02/06/2004 35 30 17 12 5 SES 01/06/2004 36 25 22 13 5 Ipsos-Reid 31/05/2004 34 30 16 ?? 6 SES 31/05/2004 36 26 20 13 5 SES 30/05/2004 34 31 19 12 3 EKOS 28/05/2004 38 30 18 11 SES 28/05/2004 40 31 16 10 3 SES 27/05/2004 42 29 17 10 2 Environics 26/05/2004 38 29 21 11 SES 26/05/2004 41 28 18 11 3 Compas 22/05/2004 39 31 17 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kliege Posted June 4, 2004 Report Share Posted June 4, 2004 Maple I wish you would stop doing that. What is the point? Please stop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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