South Korean Warship Allegedly Torpedoed by North Korea

[dre]

Eraserhead and pinpong say they will declare war if there are any repecussions for their actions. No one is suggesting that war will be bloodless but we have to be prepared to fight to the last korean...

No one is suggesting that war will be bloodless but we have to be prepared to fight to the last korean...

Whos "we"? You got a mouse in your pocket?

And its not just a matter of it being bloody. If things flashed up there you would have one of the bloodiest days in human history. Theres more than 10 million people in range of two of the largest concentrations of artillary in the world today. Its not unreasonable to think that hundreds of thousands or even a million people might die in the first few hours.

Good luck gettin parts for your Hyundai.

[M.Dancer]

Its not unreasonable to think that hundreds of thousands or even a million people might die in the first few hours.

Not unreasonable...just fanciful. You seem to assume that the NK artillery would have free reign to fire...most likely the majority would be hors de combat with in 24 hours.

[nicky10013]

Not unreasonable...just fanciful. You seem to assume that the NK artillery would have free reign to fire...most likely the majority would be hors de combat with in 24 hours.

You assume this stuff isn't heavily fortified. Most of the Northern side of the DMZ is filled with concrete dugouts designed to withstand nuclear blasts. Furthermore, at 500,000 rounds an hour, 24 hours isn't good enough.

[M.Dancer]

You assume this stuff isn't heavily fortified. Most of the Northern side of the DMZ is filled with concrete dugouts designed to withstand nuclear blasts. Furthermore, at 500,000 rounds an hour, 24 hours isn't good enough.

I will assume a lot of things..you just as much. Dug in positions means that they are well known...like the maginot line....imagine the logistical tail of 500,000 rounds an hour...which by the way translates to about 62,500 artillery pieces...which is about 5 times as many as they actually have..Seoul is 50km from the border, out of range for most artilery except the 170mm Koksan (and they have only 36 )...and if they are dug in (which in most cases is true) they aren't going to advance far or fast before they are destroyed.

Then there are the missiles....they will reach seoul..South Korea has amongst it anti missile inventory 48 patriot missile batteries (48x 8) as well the US has two patriot battalions stationed there.

[M.Dancer]

Theres more than 10 million people in range of two of the largest concentrations of artillary in the world today.

Seoul is in range of 36 artillery pieces that wouldn't last 15 minutes after their 1st shot...

[Army Guy]

You assume this stuff isn't heavily fortified. Most of the Northern side of the DMZ is filled with concrete dugouts designed to withstand nuclear blasts. Furthermore, at 500,000 rounds an hour, 24 hours isn't good enough.

Nothing made of concrete can withstand a nuclear blast, even the old NORAD HQ built under a solid granite mountain could not with stand a direct nuclear hit. Both the SK and US forces have a wide selection of wpns sys able to defeat any fortified postion, Ask Sadam how his concrete postions made out...

Fortified postions with reinforced cielings restrict Arty from using their max range...and are for more or less a direct fire role, Since they are fixed, SK and US forces have had years to site them in, work out a battle plan to ensure the maximum destruction in the shortest time with the least amount of ammo.....Aside from counter bat fire plans , the SK and US forces have fast air, attack helo's, diect tank fire, direct anti tank missles, naval guns, ground lanuched and naval launched cruise mis, along with special forces and or ground or air assualt forces all with one mission to clear and elelment as much as they can....

besides this conflict is not going to just start with a NK arty barrage of soul ...any minor military movement is observed and reported and comes with a counter movement from SK and US forces...since the reaction time is limited, each side can't fart without the other knowing it....once the first round is fired, it will cascade into a all out war....and before NK starts pounding Soul, it needs to get rid of SK and US forces on the front...i doubt by the end of the first hour NK could put out half that number of rounds...

[M.Dancer]

...i doubt by the end of the first hour NK could put out half that number of rounds...

Baed on a very liberal 8 rounds per minute, with every NK piece firing...you are looking at 48,000 rounds per hour...in a day (assuming these are super duper artillery peices that never heat up and can fire without cleaning, maintenance..) that's 11520 rounds per day, per piece...

How many deuces you think they would need to keep them supplied?..how many roads would they need?

If a war came, and it was a set piece match a la trench warfare...NK is focked..their only winning solution is the hail mary, go long go fast and overwhelm the defenders...like they did once before..and even then, that option may not present itself.

[nicky10013]

I will assume a lot of things..you just as much. Dug in positions means that they are well known...like the maginot line....imagine the logistical tail of 500,000 rounds an hour...which by the way translates to about 62,500 artillery pieces...which is about 5 times as many as they actually have..Seoul is 50km from the border, out of range for most artilery except the 170mm Koksan (and they have only 36 )...and if they are dug in (which in most cases is true) they aren't going to advance far or fast before they are destroyed.

Then there are the missiles....they will reach seoul..South Korea has amongst it anti missile inventory 48 patriot missile batteries (48x 8) as well the US has two patriot battalions stationed there.

Who are you to comment on the range of the weapons? Range on artillery pieces can range anywhere from a few hundred meters for the smallest guns to the 180 miles for the largest guns.

As for patriot missile batteries, there has never been a confirmed intercept of an incoming scud by any patriot anywhere. There were reported shoot downs of Iraqi scuds over Israel, but the US military sheepishly admitted later that they hadn't hit anything at all.

[nicky10013]

Nothing made of concrete can withstand a nuclear blast, even the old NORAD HQ built under a solid granite mountain could not with stand a direct nuclear hit. Both the SK and US forces have a wide selection of wpns sys able to defeat any fortified postion, Ask Sadam how his concrete postions made out...

Fortified postions with reinforced cielings restrict Arty from using their max range...and are for more or less a direct fire role, Since they are fixed, SK and US forces have had years to site them in, work out a battle plan to ensure the maximum destruction in the shortest time with the least amount of ammo.....Aside from counter bat fire plans , the SK and US forces have fast air, attack helo's, diect tank fire, direct anti tank missles, naval guns, ground lanuched and naval launched cruise mis, along with special forces and or ground or air assualt forces all with one mission to clear and elelment as much as they can....

besides this conflict is not going to just start with a NK arty barrage of soul ...any minor military movement is observed and reported and comes with a counter movement from SK and US forces...since the reaction time is limited, each side can't fart without the other knowing it....once the first round is fired, it will cascade into a all out war....and before NK starts pounding Soul, it needs to get rid of SK and US forces on the front...i doubt by the end of the first hour NK could put out half that number of rounds...

Fair enough. However, I still fail to see how there wouldn't be mass casualties which is the main reason why there hasn't been a second conflict.

[DogOnPorch]

N Korea's military, while capable, still relies on tactics like human wave attacks. The Somme didn't pan-out too well, somebody should tell them.

[M.Dancer]

Who are you to comment on the range of the weapons? Range on artillery pieces can range anywhere from a few hundred meters for the smallest guns to the 180 miles for the largest guns.

Yeah and how many of these 180 mile artillery pieces are there in existance?

I'm not sure if you can properly categorize something with the range of a few hundred yards as an artillery piece...motars aren't usually considered artillery...

The average maximum range of most artillery falls with 10-30 K

105 howitzer

155 howitzer

[M.Dancer]

Fair enough. However, I still fail to see how there wouldn't be mass casualties which is the main reason why there hasn't been a second conflict.

The main reason for the armistice was Chinese intervention which made winning unlikely (losing too) and the main reason the armistice has held is because peace is often preferable. But when you enemy is torpedoing your ships, is there still peace?

[DogOnPorch]

Who are you to comment on the range of the weapons? Range on artillery pieces can range anywhere from a few hundred meters for the smallest guns to the 180 miles for the largest guns.

As for patriot missile batteries, there has never been a confirmed intercept of an incoming scud by any patriot anywhere. There were reported shoot downs of Iraqi scuds over Israel, but the US military sheepishly admitted later that they hadn't hit anything at all.

The Paris Gun?? "Only" 75 miles.

Edited May 27, 2010 by DogOnPorch

[bush_cheney2004]

.... But when you enemy is torpedoing your ships, is there still peace?

Nope....."B-5"...."You sunk my Battleship!!!!"

[Army Guy]

Fair enough. However, I still fail to see how there wouldn't be mass casualties which is the main reason why there hasn't been a second conflict.

Yes mass cas is small consideration, NK is expecting mass cas, and is willing to except that ...but i think it has more to do with the number of tac nucs that are being held by US forces and the threat that NK would glow for many years to come.And that the Leadership of NK would be the first to glow is what scares them....

[dre]

Baed on a very liberal 8 rounds per minute, with every NK piece firing...you are looking at 48,000 rounds per hour...in a day (assuming these are super duper artillery peices that never heat up and can fire without cleaning, maintenance..) that's 11520 rounds per day, per piece...

How many deuces you think they would need to keep them supplied?..how many roads would they need?

If a war came, and it was a set piece match a la trench warfare...NK is focked..their only winning solution is the hail mary, go long go fast and overwhelm the defenders...like they did once before..and even then, that option may not present itself.

All your facts are wrong Morris.

First of all you think theres 36 Koksan guns when theres 500-700. They are configured in 36 vehicle batteries which I assume is how you got that wrong. All those guns can reach Seoul. As can the 200+ rocket launchers and Scuds.

Heres a realistic analysis.

The biggest military concern in striking North Korean nuclear facilities is the threat of North Korean counter-attacks. Seoul, the South Korean capitol, lies within range of North Korean long-range artillery. Five hundred 170mm Koksan guns and 200 multiple-launch rocket systems could hit Seoul with artillery shells and chemical weapons, causing panic and massive civilian casualties. North Korea has between 500 and 600 Scud missiles that could strike targets throughout South Korea with conventional warheads or chemical weapons. North Korea could hit Japan with its 100 No-dong missiles.[7] Seventy percent of North Korean army ground units are located within 100 miles of the demilitarized zone separating North and South Korea, positioned to undertake offensive ground operations. These units could fire up to 500,000 artillery rounds per hour against South Korean defenses for several hours.[8] Finally, if North Korea does have one or two deliverable nuclear weapons, nuclear retaliation (or nuclear threats) would also be available to North Korea leaders.

Heres a realistic assessment based on what western intelligence believes the numbers to be.

[nicky10013]

The main reason for the armistice was Chinese intervention which made winning unlikely (losing too) and the main reason the armistice has held is because peace is often preferable. But when you enemy is torpedoing your ships, is there still peace?

Exactly. Peace has been preferable for the past 57 years. Despite the fact the ship has sunk, I challenge anyone to seriously argue it still isn't preferable.

[nicky10013]

Yes mass cas is small consideration, NK is expecting mass cas, and is willing to except that ...but i think it has more to do with the number of tac nucs that are being held by US forces and the threat that NK would glow for many years to come.And that the Leadership of NK would be the first to glow is what scares them....

Unless first attacked by the north with nuclear , there is absolutely no way the US can ever justify launching a pre-emptive nuclear strike, even on North Korea. Furthermore, the Koreans know it. I mentioned above why no one wants war, and until something changes within the governments of all sides involved, it'll remain that way.

[M.Dancer]

Yes you are correct I misunderstood the phrasing.

According to one report, a South Korean security analyst suggested that DPRK artillery pieces of calibers 170mm and 240mm "could fire 10,000 rounds per minute to Seoul and its environs." The number of Koksan guns is not publicly reported, but it is reliably reported that North Korea has about 500 long-range artillery tubes within range of Seoul, double the levels of a the mid-1990s. Large caliber self propelled artillery pieces typically have a sustained rate of fire of between four and eight rounds per minute. This suggests a total rate of fire of artillery alone of between 2,000 and 4,000 rounds per minute. The DPRK's two hundred 240mm MRLs fire either 12 or 22 rounds, providing a maximum single salvo of no more than 4,400 rounds.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/dprk/m-1978-170.htm

[dre]

Yes you are correct I misunderstood the phrasing.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/dprk/m-1978-170.htm

Yeah that seems right.

Heres some analysis that was written in the context of a strike to take out NK nuclear facilities, but is relevant to the current showdown as well...

http://cns.miis.edu/north_korea/dprkmil.htm

[Army Guy]

I think that both intel assessments are very liberal, for a couple of reasons 170mm Koksan guns have a rate of fire of (1 or 2 rounds every 5 mins) Link provided below...not 4 to 8 rounds a min. but rather 12 rounds every hour....x 700 guns = 8400 rds per hour...or the first min 700 rds, assuming that each gun was allowed to fire for a full hour without being destroyed highly unlikely....

My linkwww.military-today.com/

Rate of fire for NK MRLs is on the outside 2 loads per hour, each load consists of 22 to 44 rockets depending on the size of rocket used...200 x 44 = 8800 every 30 mins....0r 17600 every hour. once again highly unlikely that this priority assets would be allowed to survive a full hour is unlikely.

Add them all together and divide by 60 as in 60 mins in one hour and we have 440 rounds per minute....providing that there is NO counter bat fire by SK and US forces, or no other attacks by fast air, etc etc.

Aside from the counter attack from US and SK forces, the intel assessment fails to mention that NK forces will not be pounding SK civilian postions first, but rather heavily engaged in dealing with US and SK forces...NK ground forces rely heavily on their arty assets as they lack ground attack aircraft....

that and the fact that hitting soul accomplishes only one objective causing civ cas, and mass panick in the rear...which is limited in effect by the fact most military units are already on the front lines, civs will be fleeing south not north into the battle fields....so they wont be effective in blocking supply routes.....

[M.Dancer]

Exactly. Peace has been preferable for the past 57 years. Despite the fact the ship has sunk, I challenge anyone to seriously argue it still isn't preferable.

That type of appeasement will lead to war ...if they get away with sinking a warship...will they get away with downing a jet, or bombing a railway...and so on.

Just like the Israelis, they had a just to live under daily rocket attacks or to fight. I think fighting is better than being a sucker and getting killed anyway.

[Wild Bill]

That type of appeasement will lead to war ...if they get away with sinking a warship...will they get away with downing a jet, or bombing a railway...and so on.

Just like the Israelis, they had a just to live under daily rocket attacks or to fight. I think fighting is better than being a sucker and getting killed anyway.

I'm surprised it took so long for someone to make this point, Morris! This is NOT the first time North Korea has done such a thing. It's not the second, either. Every few years it seems to happen.

How long can a country let such go on? Every couple of years some other country will kill 50-100 of your citizens and threaten total war if you retaliate! Do you continue to pay such blood tribute forever?

It's funny how appeasement is always such a popular policy when it has such a miserably poor record in the long term. It also seems it's never championed by the victim but rather by the bystanders, who think it's a reasonable price for SOMEONE ELSE to pay, if it keeps the status quo from getting out of hand and affecting themselves.

[dre]

That type of appeasement will lead to war ...if they get away with sinking a warship...will they get away with downing a jet, or bombing a railway...and so on.

Just like the Israelis, they had a just to live under daily rocket attacks or to fight. I think fighting is better than being a sucker and getting killed anyway.

Problems is if youre the South Korean leader you have to weigh the isolated incidents that have taken place over the last 60 years against the cost of full scale war, and that equation isnt very tough to understand. Hes also aware of the fact that the Koreans who would die on both sides in such a war have nothing to do with these attacks. Not to mention he's likely being stenuously advised against it by all of their allies and every single military analyst on earth.

In any case... I have no doubt you WOULD start a massive war and quite possibly a nuclear war over a sunk boat. In that respect is lucky for Koreans on both sides that your knee jerk reactionism doesnt project itself beyond internet forums.

[dre]

I'm surprised it took so long for someone to make this point, Morris! This is NOT the first time North Korea has done such a thing. It's not the second, either. Every few years it seems to happen.

How long can a country let such go on? Every couple of years some other country will kill 50-100 of your citizens and threaten total war if you retaliate! Do you continue to pay such blood tribute forever?

It's funny how appeasement is always such a popular policy when it has such a miserably poor record in the long term. It also seems it's never championed by the victim but rather by the bystanders, who think it's a reasonable price for SOMEONE ELSE to pay, if it keeps the status quo from getting out of hand and affecting themselves.

It also seems it's never championed by the victim but rather by the bystanders, who think it's a reasonable price for SOMEONE ELSE to pay

Thats funny I see the opposite... It's South Korea thats taking a very carefull approach to this and trying to avoid the type of kneejerk reactionism you guys are recommending... VS a couple of guys on an internet forum thousands of miles outside potential blast radius that are beating the drums of war. Go figure.