Canadian Political Polls

[ToadBrother]

Rhetoric aside, there have been some decent NDP provincial governments. One can afford say a lot of things in opposition that one would never do as government.

Unfortunately for the NDP they had two notoriously bad Provincial governments; BC and Ontario, during the 1990s, and as much as the Federal party tries to distance itself from the Bob Rae and Glen Clark governments, it's very easy for the other parties to point to them and go "Oh-ho!" But it is true, there have been some good NDP governments, who have, when push comes to shove, tended to govern from the center.

But let's be realistic here. The one thing we can be sure of is that Jack Layton is not a centrist. He's very a much a preach to the converted kind of guy.

[punked]

Cons - 37%, up 3%

Libs - 27%, down 1%

NDP - 15%, down 3%

Bloc - 10%, up 1%

http://www.montrealgazette.com/Tories+point+lead+over+Liberals+poll/2789877/story.html

[LastViking]

Momentum still with CPC. TrendLines Research gives Harper a 130-105 seat projection lead over Ignatieff, had a writ been dropped last week. OTOH, when this result is averaged with the four other models, their riding projection chart shows the Conservatives have a 131-96 lead over the Liberal Party.

[bloodyminded]

There's this old joke here in BC that probably still applies to the BC Liberals, but it was always that publicly everyone you talked to would be pro-NDP and down on the Socreds, but when they went into the booth, they'd still put an X beside the Socreds.

I think, to some extent, people tend to view the NDP as the moral bloc of Parliament. Everyone's happy they're there to hold the Liberals and Tories feet to the fire over social issues, but no one seriously wants them in a position of power. Idealists have their place, but having their hands on government can lead to serious problems. That's why I view the Greens with some fear. There's too much of this "True Believer" syndrome, and politics truly is the art of compromise.

I somewhat agree, though I'm a bit ambivalent about my own agreement. I'm not convinced that the Liberals and Tories are't ideologues as well, quite severe ones, but we're just used to their "practical" [sic] ideologies.

Having said that...I usually (though not always) vote NDP; not in hopes of getting them in power, but in the hopes of giving them enough seats so that they can continue to perform the function which you rightly point out.

[waldo]

Cons - 37%, up 3%

Libs - 27%, down 1%

NDP - 15%, down 3%

Bloc - 10%, up 1%

http://www.montrealgazette.com/Tories+point+lead+over+Liberals+poll/2789877/story.html

hmmm... which is the outlier? The 10 point CPC BrickerCanwestInTheBag poll or the latest EKOS poll?

CPC - 31.4%

Liberals - 29%

NDP - 16.4%

Green Party - 11.1%

Bloc - 8.8%

[Dave_ON]

hmmm... which is the outlier? The 10 point CPC BrickerCanwestInTheBag poll or the latest EKOS poll?

CPC - 31.4%

Liberals - 29%

NDP - 16.4%

Green Party - 11.1%

Bloc - 8.8%

Interesting indeed, though I don't think we'll see the full effects of this until the next poll. This one ended before the bomb dropped on Guergis.

[Wild Bill]

hmmm... which is the outlier? The 10 point CPC BrickerCanwestInTheBag poll or the latest EKOS poll?

CPC - 31.4%

Liberals - 29%

NDP - 16.4%

Green Party - 11.1%

Bloc - 8.8%

Well, if you apply the margin of error on the high side of one poll and the low side of the other...

[ToadBrother]

Well, if you apply the margin of error on the high side of one poll and the low side of the other...

We're still stuck in the rut. These numbers keep flipping, the Tories get close, they fall back, the Liberals never get close enough to dare pull the pin. An election before the fall is out, and I'd wager we won't even have it then. The only thing that I can see forcing the issue is if the Speaker rules against the Government on the question of privilege, and Harper says "screw it all!" and calls or forces an election.

[wyly]

Interesting indeed, though I don't think we'll see the full effects of this until the next poll. This one ended before the bomb dropped on Guergis.

or the latest testimony from the detainee issue...Canadian troops routinely handed over innocent afghan men to be interrogated/tortured by the Afghan security with full knowledge of what would happen, as well as the killing of an innocent man which they attempted to cover up...

[Jerry J. Fortin]

I don't like the way this topic is going! Do you people not realize that the military follows orders and procedures established by the government? The Canadian Armed Forces does what its told to do. They don't have the luxury of questioning their instructions, because in their line of work they are orders to be obeyed. Its not all that complicated, you tell the soldiers what to do and they will literally die trying to fulfill those instructions. Lets not mistake the true issue here, and that is the source of the instructions.

[normanchateau]

latest EKOS poll?

CPC - 31.4%

Liberals - 29%

NDP - 16.4%

Green Party - 11.1%

Bloc - 8.8%

Same April 15th EKOS poll broken down by level of education:

High school or less:

CPC - 36.4%

Liberal - 23.8%

NDP - 12.8%

Other - 27.0%

University or higher:

CPC - 25.8%

Liberal - 36.2%

NDP - 18.3%

Other - 19.7%

Source: http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_april_15.pdf

How unfortunate for Harper and his ilk that those with the least education are those least likely to vote.

[Shakeyhands]

Same April 15th EKOS poll broken down by level of education:

High school or less:

CPC - 36.4%

Liberal - 23.8%

NDP - 12.8%

Other - 27.0%

University or higher:

CPC - 25.8%

Liberal - 36.2%

NDP - 18.3%

Other - 19.7%

Source: http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_april_15.pdf

How unfortunate for Harper and his ilk that those with the least education are those least likely to vote.

Ouch... kind of talks to the urban/rural divide though...

[Dave_ON]

Latest EKOS

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2010/04/21/ekos-poll-100422.html

CPC - 31.7%

Liberals - 27.1%

NDP - 16.3%

Green Party - 12.6%

Bloc - 9.5%

2.15% margin for error.

Not a lot of movement although if we didn't realize we were in a rut already here's a notation from the pollster.

The results also create a virtually unprecedented situation: an electorate which has for 16 polls in a row stopped short of giving any party more than 33 percentage points in support.

Edited April 22, 2010 by Dave_ON

[ToadBrother]

Latest EKOS

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2010/04/21/ekos-poll-100422.html

CPC - 31.7%

Liberals - 27.1%

NDP - 16.3%

Green Party - 12.6%

Bloc - 9.5%

2.15% margin for error.

Not a lot of movement although if we didn't realize we were in a rut already here's a notation from the pollster.

Looks like we aren't the only ones. It's almost a given now that the UK will have a "hung parliament" (as they call a minority government), and the situation is oddly reminiscent of ours (two mainline parties incapable of getting the numbers necessary to achieve a majority, an upstart third party, and even an independence party in the SNP).

I think the bigger picture is that voters in both Canada and the UK have little or no trust in the political classes, and don't want to deliver any of them the vast powers available to a majority government.

[M.Dancer]

I think the bigger picture is that voters in both Canada and the UK have little or no trust in the political classes, and don't want to deliver any of them the vast powers available to a majority government.

Well, that and the Liberal Democrats have been campaigning for what? 22 years to gain some credibility.

[eyeball]

I think the bigger picture is that voters in both Canada and the UK have little or no trust in the political classes, and don't want to deliver any of them the vast powers available to a majority government.

The path to power should be wide open to anyone with the brains and guts to realize that complete openness and total transparency is their friend and not their enemy.

What we really need is the political equivalent of a couple of guys or gals working in a garage on a new idea. The old way is just waiting there to be swept aside.

[Dave_ON]

The path to power should be wide open to anyone with the brains and guts to realize that complete openness and total transparency is their friend and not their enemy.

What we really need is the political equivalent of a couple of guys or gals working in a garage on a new idea. The old way is just waiting there to be swept aside.

Indeed and it'll be rainbows and kittens all around. What colour is the sky in your world? It's all well and good to stand on principles, but fact of the matter is they quickly go out the door once the party achieves power. I believe transparency was a mainstay plank in the CPC's platform, one that has oddly been conspicuously absent heretofore. Pragmatism, not principle is a necessary evil in politics.

[eyeball]

Indeed and it'll be rainbows and kittens all around. What colour is the sky in your world? It's all well and good to stand on principles, but fact of the matter is they quickly go out the door once the party achieves power. I believe transparency was a mainstay plank in the CPC's platform, one that has oddly been conspicuously absent heretofore. Pragmatism, not principle is a necessary evil in politics.

Like Conrad Black's files?

I believe transparency had a lot to do with him now being in jail.

[ToadBrother]

The path to power should be wide open to anyone with the brains and guts to realize that complete openness and total transparency is their friend and not their enemy.

What we really need is the political equivalent of a couple of guys or gals working in a garage on a new idea. The old way is just waiting there to be swept aside.

It's hard to take you seriously when you write this kind of thing. You are either idealistic to a fault or have little comprehension of human nature.

Suffice it to say there are two key points:

1. Most people don't really want to be in positions of power.

2. No matter who achieves power, the old axiom that power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely still holds true.

Surely a review of the last five or six thousand years suggests a common theme; regardless of governmental system, the government and the governed will always be separated by a wide gulf. Democracy attempts, at least, to limit the government's capacity to monopolize power, but there's not going to be a perfect system.

I guarantee you that even if we selected our leaders by lottery, once they achieved power, they would, as the powerful have always done, pursued policies that first and foremost guaranteed the perpetuation of their power. In fact, I think sometimes the idealists are the most dangerous people to give power to. At least the cunning and the Machiavellian types can be constrained by a rational view of the world and self-interest, but it is the overly idealistic are constrained by nothing, infected by self-righteousness, they'll lead their people into unimaginable catastrophes, each step taking with absolute surety that what they do they do for their people.

The very best we can do, in a democracy, is to stay involved in the process, and not to become detached and allow the political classes and the aristocracy (whatever form it takes) to monopolize power. Just look at BC, where the BC Liberal government's popularity, and its new sales tax regime, are in a tailspin. Thus far some 70,000 British Columbians have signed a petition using the BC NDP's almost impossible citizen initiative legislation, and the odds now seem to be in their favor. What's more, British Columbians, in the latest poll, have shown a distinct desire for a third party. This is the kind of revolution that a peaceful democracy can achieve, no mobs in the streets, no battles with the police, just the ultimate expression of the citizen's real power, when he or she decides to flex their muscle.

[Alta4ever]

CBC pollster accused of Liberal bias

By DON PEAT, QMI AGENCY

onservative Party of Canada president John Walsh sent a letter Thursday to the CBC's Ombudsman charging that EKOS pollster Frank Graves' comments reported in the Globe and Mail that day raise "serious questions about the impartiality of Canada's publicly funded national broadcaster."

"Why is a pollster who conducts polling for Canada's national broadcaster, the CBC, also giving partisan advice to the Liberal Party of Canada?" Walsh writes in a letter obtained exclusively by QMI Agency.

"Is the CBC aware they were sharing resources with the Liberal Party of Canada, if so, how long have they been aware? Can the CBC assure us that data collected at the expense of taxpayers is not shared with the Liberal Party of Canada?

"Does the CBC share Mr. Graves' call for a "culture war" that pits Canadian against Canadian?"

Since 2001, Graves has donated at least $11,042.72 to the Liberals, according to the Elections Canada website, including money toward the leadership campaigns of current party leader Michael Ignatieff and leadership candidate Bob Rae.

http://www.lfpress.com/news/canada/2010/04/22/13688261.html

[capricorn]

The president of the Conservative Party has accused a CBC pollster of advising federal Liberals to incite a “culture war” that pits Canadians against Canadians.

http://www.torontosun.com/news/canada/2010/04/22/13687981.html

The Liberals cannot deny they have at least partially accepted Graves' advice to launch a culture war to malign the Tories in the minds of Canadians. Almost all Liberal MPs speaking publicly now repeat the phrase "culture of deceit" regardless of the issue addressed. This was most notable in this morning's Question Period. Even John McCallum is into the act.

The NDP are leaning toward "culture of secrecy" as their preferred choice of vocabulary to describe the Tories.

[ToadBrother]

http://www.torontosun.com/news/canada/2010/04/22/13687981.html

The Liberals cannot deny they have at least partially accepted Graves' advice to launch a culture war to malign the Tories in the minds of Canadians. Almost all Liberal MPs speaking publicly now repeat the phrase "culture of deceit" regardless of the issue addressed. This was most notable in this morning's Question Period. Even John McCallum is into the act.

The NDP are leaning toward "culture of secrecy" as their preferred choice of vocabulary to describe the Tories.

Well, it doesn't help that the Tories are violating a constitutional right that Parliament has enjoyed for over three centuries.

[M.Dancer]

Well, it doesn't help that the Tories are violating a constitutional right that Parliament has enjoyed for over three centuries.

That is yet to be decided...the speaker is to rule on that issue, whether the Governement is in gviolation or not.

[capricorn]

Well, it doesn't help that the Tories are violating a constitutional right that Parliament has enjoyed for over three centuries.

Perhaps the Liberals think they will be better served by repeating a phrase they hope will resonate, rather than trying to explain a centuries old constitutional matter to the masses.

[waldo]

Well, it doesn't help that the Tories are violating a constitutional right that Parliament has enjoyed for over three centuries.

That is yet to be decided...the speaker is to rule on that issue, whether the Governement is in gviolation or not.

oh really? If the Speaker rules against the Opposition motions... wouldn't that suggest a change to our system of governance... that the executive would no longer be accountable to the House of Commons?