Canadian Political Polls

[nicky10013]

No Olympic/Budget Bounce for the Tories: Nik Nanos

Conservative 34.7% (-0.9)

Liberal 34.6% (+0.7)

NDP 17.8% (+1.4)

BQ 7.7% (-0.8)

Green 5.2% (-0.4)

http://www.nikonthenumbers.com/topics/show/160

[Dave_ON]

No Olympic/Budget Bounce for the Tories: Nik Nanos

Conservative 34.7% (-0.9)

Liberal 34.6% (+0.7)

NDP 17.8% (+1.4)

BQ 7.7% (-0.8)

Green 5.2% (-0.4)

http://www.nikonthenumbers.com/topics/show/160

Indeed it will be a very long time before the CPC manages to dig themselves out of this hole, if they ever do at all. One thing this poll does point to is we won't see an election until this fall at the absolute earliest.

The Tories are in a tough way atm as they have to sell huge spending cuts to Canadians, this might not hurt the CPC per se but it's certainly not going to impact them positively. Though budget cuts are generally easier to sell then are tax hikes which are likely to come in the not to distant future as well.

[ToadBrother]

No Olympic/Budget Bounce for the Tories: Nik Nanos

Conservative 34.7% (-0.9)

Liberal 34.6% (+0.7)

NDP 17.8% (+1.4)

BQ 7.7% (-0.8)

Green 5.2% (-0.4)

http://www.nikonthenumbers.com/topics/show/160

I didn't think there would be. It's hard for the Fed's to take that much credit. For the most part it is us poor witless taxpayers in BC that are going to bear the brunt of Olympic costs.

I think it's time for the Tory supporters here to admit that Harper screwed up in a huge way in proroguing Parliament, and whatever small benefit he could get from hiding whatever documents the Feds have on the Afghan prisoner abuse issue certainly wasn't worth sacrificing the good polling figures the Tories had last fall.

Harper blundered once again, and the only thing keeping the Tory ship afloat right now is that the Liberals have been just as weak and prone to miscalculation.

[Wild Bill]

I didn't think there would be. It's hard for the Fed's to take that much credit. For the most part it is us poor witless taxpayers in BC that are going to bear the brunt of Olympic costs.

I think it's time for the Tory supporters here to admit that Harper screwed up in a huge way in proroguing Parliament, and whatever small benefit he could get from hiding whatever documents the Feds have on the Afghan prisoner abuse issue certainly wasn't worth sacrificing the good polling figures the Tories had last fall.

Harper blundered once again, and the only thing keeping the Tory ship afloat right now is that the Liberals have been just as weak and prone to miscalculation.

What's new, TB? We have the choice of either a bastard or a buffoon! Neither sparks enthusiasm. Still, if push comes to shove people will still likely favour Harper over Ignatieff. Harper may be a bastard but a bastard is more likely to at least do an acceptable job, even if he's not very nice about it. Ignatieff doesn't have the same advantage as far as public perception.

I've only had one choice I actually LIKED in my whole life! Even then, I knew that it was an anomaly!

It's all just part of being Canadian, I guess.

[ToadBrother]

What's new, TB? We have the choice of either a bastard or a buffoon!

The problem I'm having right now is trying to figure out who the bastard is and who the buffoon is. I thought I knew five or six months ago, but now, I'm not too sure. Maybe it isn't a choice between bastard and buffoon at all, but between buffoon and buffoon. At that point, I'm stuck picking whoever has the riper banana, I guess.

Neither sparks enthusiasm. Still, if push comes to shove people will still likely favour Harper over Ignatieff.

I'm seeing little to suggest that. If these polling numbers hold, and they have held for three months now, it suggests that it might be as profitable to call the victor by a coin toss, because that's just about where the numbers sit. It's not clear to me who I would rather vote for, and that's even counting a budget that, while lackluster, still is better than I thought would come out of Ottawa.

Harper may be a bastard but a bastard is more likely to at least do an acceptable job, even if he's not very nice about it. Ignatieff doesn't have the same advantage as far as public perception.

But he's not just a bastard. A bastard I could handle, but he's shown enough times that he isn't some tactical wunderkind for me to ponder the possibility that his reputation for calculated strategy is just myth-making by his PR team. His sole substantial ability that I can see is that he's probably the best party manager we've seen since Chretien. That's an important skill, if you're a Tory, but for someone like me who has no particular ideological magnetic pole aligning with the Tories, it holds little weight when sitting in the voting booth preparing to mark the ballot.

I've only had one choice I actually LIKED in my whole life! Even then, I knew that it was an anomaly!

It's all just part of being Canadian, I guess.

My disappointment is that both Iggy and Harper have been sold as giants, supermen of glorious powers, gods among men, and what I'm seeing is one guy who seems to be the political equivalent of an adrenalin junkie and another who seems extraordinarily perplexed by leadership specifically, and possibly politics in general.

[wyly]

No Olympic/Budget Bounce for the Tories: Nik Nanos

Conservative 34.7% (-0.9)

Liberal 34.6% (+0.7)

NDP 17.8% (+1.4)

BQ 7.7% (-0.8)

Green 5.2% (-0.4)

http://www.nikonthenumbers.com/topics/show/160

I have found nanos polls to be inaccurate...

[Dave_ON]

I have found nanos polls to be inaccurate...

Given how consistant these numbers are with the other polls to date, I'd say these are pretty close to the mark.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Given how consistant these numbers are with the other polls to date, I'd say these are pretty close to the mark.

Close race or not, the reality is that the right side of the equation has been galvanized to their benefit into a single political entity, the same thing can be done from the left as well. Vote splitting is problematic for all parties, but the biggest problem is the Bloc. They are only a regional party, but they own a vast chunk of popularity that plays heavily on the rest of the nation. Any viable real political solution to the now normal deadlock will have to address both the Bloc, as well as the left/right split.

I suggest that sooner or later some person will go after the apathetic voter and seize the largest demographic in the nation. Until then, a unite the left movement has the next best hope for success. Even so, the entire Quebec issue will continue to create a fog of political war in this nation.

[nicky10013]

Close race or not, the reality is that the right side of the equation has been galvanized to their benefit into a single political entity, the same thing can be done from the left as well. Vote splitting is problematic for all parties, but the biggest problem is the Bloc. They are only a regional party, but they own a vast chunk of popularity that plays heavily on the rest of the nation. Any viable real political solution to the now normal deadlock will have to address both the Bloc, as well as the left/right split.

I suggest that sooner or later some person will go after the apathetic voter and seize the largest demographic in the nation. Until then, a unite the left movement has the next best hope for success. Even so, the entire Quebec issue will continue to create a fog of political war in this nation.

Divide the Right has far more potential. There are huge differences between the NDP and the Liberals. It would take a lot to get them together. There are also huge differences between the Alliance members and the PC members within the CPC. Harper galvanized the right through sheer authoritarianism within the party. When he's gone, will anyone be able to keep that group together? I'm betting no.

[wyly]

Divide the Right has far more potential. There are huge differences between the NDP and the Liberals. It would take a lot to get them together. There are also huge differences between the Alliance members and the PC members within the CPC. Harper galvanized the right through sheer authoritarianism within the party. When he's gone, will anyone be able to keep that group together? I'm betting no.

I'm betting your right, once they lose an election or Harper steps down it'll all come apart there will be no shutting up nutters like Rob Anders without Harper around gagging him...I look at those in the cabinet now and fail to see anyone as ruthless as Harper to step in, maybe Baird but he's quite abrasive and won't endear himself to many voters...

[ToadBrother]

I'm betting your right, once they lose an election or Harper steps down it'll all come apart there will be no shutting up nutters like Rob Anders without Harper around gagging him...I look at those in the cabinet now and fail to see anyone as ruthless as Harper to step in, maybe Baird but he's quite abrasive and won't endear himself to many voters...

I'm not so sure. Maybe some of the fringe wingnuts might leave, but the coalition is the only chance the conservative movement in Canada has any hope of forming a government.

Let's face it. The Tories have long been a coalition between Red and Blue, and a coalition that, at times, created lots of sparks. Mulroney was a breaking point, but look what the break lead to, a decade of Liberal dominance. I doubt there are many even in the Reform wing who have much desire to return to those years.

I don't find the notion of another breach credible. If Harper does walk away, or somehow screws up enough that he's thrown out, the circle-the-wagons mentality will hold fast and someone else will come along.

[nicky10013]

I'm not so sure. Maybe some of the fringe wingnuts might leave, but the coalition is the only chance the conservative movement in Canada has any hope of forming a government.

Let's face it. The Tories have long been a coalition between Red and Blue, and a coalition that, at times, created lots of sparks. Mulroney was a breaking point, but look what the break lead to, a decade of Liberal dominance. I doubt there are many even in the Reform wing who have much desire to return to those years.

I don't find the notion of another breach credible. If Harper does walk away, or somehow screws up enough that he's thrown out, the circle-the-wagons mentality will hold fast and someone else will come along.

See, the problem with that argument is you assume that a lot of the crazier reformers have what we call common sense. A lot of these people believe that dinosaurs walked the earth with humans.

I'm willing to bet a lot of these people are going to get caught up in the Canadian Tea Party AKA Wildrose. They'll see the huge popularity of it in Alberta and want to hop on board the populism train.

Either that, or the CPC will become inherently ineffective. The PC party suffered from "the blue curse" in that the party never had strong leadership and they were always tearing each other up. After Harper, who is going to keep those people in line? Internal yapping cost Harper the election in 2004.

[wyly]

I'm not so sure. Maybe some of the fringe wingnuts might leave, but the coalition is the only chance the conservative movement in Canada has any hope of forming a government.

Let's face it. The Tories have long been a coalition between Red and Blue, and a coalition that, at times, created lots of sparks. Mulroney was a breaking point, but look what the break lead to, a decade of Liberal dominance. I doubt there are many even in the Reform wing who have much desire to return to those years.

I don't find the notion of another breach credible. If Harper does walk away, or somehow screws up enough that he's thrown out, the circle-the-wagons mentality will hold fast and someone else will come along.

it's an abnormal alliance, moderate conservatives have no more in common with the reformers than the Liberals do with the NDP...I've no doubt a lot of conservatives only accept aligning themselves with the right wingnuts as long as they're muzzled, chained and neutered...

[wyly]

Given how consistant these numbers are with the other polls to date, I'd say these are pretty close to the mark.

it's not those that I question, it's when they're way off the mark where I become doubtful...confidence once lost is hard to regain...if nanos nails an election or two it'll gain more credibility with me...

[Wild Bill]

See, the problem with that argument is you assume that a lot of the crazier reformers have what we call common sense. A lot of these people believe that dinosaurs walked the earth with humans.

I'm willing to bet a lot of these people are going to get caught up in the Canadian Tea Party AKA Wildrose. They'll see the huge popularity of it in Alberta and want to hop on board the populism train.

Either that, or the CPC will become inherently ineffective. The PC party suffered from "the blue curse" in that the party never had strong leadership and they were always tearing each other up. After Harper, who is going to keep those people in line? Internal yapping cost Harper the election in 2004.

You seem to have a handle on the different types of CPC members but you don't seem to be very accurate as to the numbers.

The Bible Thumpers and the "Bubbas" were always a small minority. The old PC party held onto the Red Tory wing until the very end but you could have filled a phone booth with the low membership they had left when they finally merged with Reform/Alliance. Stockwell Day never represented the majority of Reformers. As soon as they saw threw his camouflage he was ousted from leadership faster than he had been voted in!

The Blue Tories were always the overwhelming majority. If the present CPC were to fall apart it's much more likely they would lose the Red Tories, or the former PCs. Both of them! So who cares?

Whether you like it or not, several million Canadians strongly support the Blue Tory faction. They are NEVER likely to vote Liberal! Certainly not NDP!

Sometimes when reading your scenarios it would seem that your idea of an ideal parliament is Red Tories, Liberals and NDP. All choices would essentially be leftwing, just differing in degree. There would be no effective Blue choice at all!

The ideological split is really a split between completely different philosophies. The Blues are "head" people. They think in terms of what's steak and what's only sizzle, of what adds up and what sounds like hype. They tend to be more utilitarian, trusting more what seems to work rather than what seems more academic.

The Red folks seem more about "feelings", leading with their heart. They look for inspiration. They have lofty goals. They don't worry about the numbers if they have confidence in the goals and those they elected to achieve them.

I don't think its possible to bridge the gap between these two camps. What the Reds call inspiration the Blues would call hype.To a Red, obsessing about numbers seems anal retentive and refusing to see "the big picture". To a Blue, phony numbers are the first tactics of dishonest spin.

I've been slowly coming to the conclusion that the cultures of the different regions of Canada are drifting so far apart that perhaps separation will become the only viable option. Albertans are NEVER going to accept the modern Liberal party! They will always be a wild pipe dream for any Jack Layton. Other regions of the country have become so leftwing, wrapped in a sense of entitlement for government handouts and seeing bigger government as a solution rather than a problem, that they will never be happy with anything BUT a Liberal government!

Breaking up the country would be painful, especially when it came to divvying up the national debt. Still, in the long run we might get along better as neighbours than as rivals for the government teat.

Czechoslovakia had an amicable split. Now the Czech Republic and Slovakia are each free to follow the political philosophy that suits each best.

Perhaps we could do the same.

[Smallc]

Is that like when I post numbers and you tell me that your experience is more important?

As for breaking up the country, there is literally no reason that I can think of to do so. It would be stupid economically for the country as a whole, and it would only give each of the countries less of a voice on the international stage. We aren't the only country with a bit of internal turmoil. I'm sure that we can get over it. We have for nearly 150 years.

As for the country drifting farther apart, again the numbers disagree with you. This forum is not representative of the real outside world. Albertan's according to polls that count, support Canada and have no desire to leave. The same goes for citizens of every other province. That sentiment (Canadian patriotism and nationalism) has been increasing, not decreasing.

Edited March 17, 2010 by Smallc

[Dave_ON]

New EKOS Poll

CPC 33.1 (+1.2)

LPC 28.9 (-.07)

NDP 15.7 (-.03)

GRN 10.8

BLOC 9.2

Other 2.3

Margin for error 2% 19/20

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2010/03/17/ekos-poll-mar18.html

Only a slight change, too soon to tell if it's indicative of any real movement. This is one of the few polls in the past 3 months that have had the CPC and LPC separated by more than the margin of error.

[charter.rights]

New EKOS Poll

CPC 33.1 (+1.2)

LPC 28.9 (-.07)

NDP 15.7 (-.03)

GRN 10.8

BLOC 9.2

Other 2.3

Margin for error 2% 19/20

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2010/03/17/ekos-poll-mar18.html

Only a slight change, too soon to tell if it's indicative of any real movement. This is one of the few polls in the past 3 months that have had the CPC and LPC separated by more than the margin of error.

Given the margin of error, this confirms the Nanos poll that the Liberals and the Conservatives are neck and neck....

[Topaz]

When they do these polls, they ask about 800-1000 people and I'm wondering if they ask the same people, since Harper numbers don't move that much.

[Dave_ON]

When they do these polls, they ask about 800-1000 people and I'm wondering if they ask the same people, since Harper numbers don't move that much.

This specific poll was 2302 people. It's always a random sampling and EKOS is gernerally one of the more accurate ones.

[wyly]

Given the margin of error, this confirms the Nanos poll that the Liberals and the Conservatives are neck and neck....

what!...the EKOS poll has the Liberals 4 points lower, that is not neck and neck...both ekos and Nanos are unreliable...

[LastViking]

Nice little GDP/Olympics bounce for the CPC! TrendLines Research gives Harper a 122-117 seat projection lead over Ignatieff, had a writ been dropped last week. OTOH, when this result is averaged with the six other models, their riding projection chart shows the Conservatives have a 129-100 lead over the Liberal Party.

[ToadBrother]

Nice little GDP/Olympics bounce for the CPC! TrendLines Research gives Harper a 122-117 seat projection lead over Ignatieff, had a writ been dropped last week. OTOH, when this result is averaged with the six other models, their riding projection chart shows the Conservatives have a 129-100 lead over the Liberal Party.

In other words we're circling the same airport we were in 2008.

[Jack Weber]

Nice little GDP/Olympics bounce for the CPC! TrendLines Research gives Harper a 122-117 seat projection lead over Ignatieff, had a writ been dropped last week. OTOH, when this result is averaged with the six other models, their riding projection chart shows the Conservatives have a 129-100 lead over the Liberal Party.

Interesting...If that math is reliable,a coalition between the two FEDERALIST parties would be possible.The seperatist arguement goes away...By the way,I don't think Ignatieff would ever go for it.I just point out that that possibility now has a real potential to exist.

[ToadBrother]

Interesting...If that math is reliable,a coalition between the two FEDERALIST parties would be possible.The seperatist arguement goes away...By the way,I don't think Ignatieff would ever go for it.I just point out that that possibility now has a real potential to exist.

I can't see that happening. There's way too much bad blood, even though I felt that the economic crisis would have been an opportunity for a "national government".