Inner-circle exodus spells trouble for Tories

jdobbin · February 11, 2009

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=1274822

MPs confide there's a darkening mood in the big guy himself, hardly surprising given the stormy economic challenge Mr. Harper faces. One source says there was a blowup between a furious Prime Minister and key players last week. And PMO chief of staff Guy Giorno is now plotting the second major internal shuffle in eight months.

According to Don Martin.

He is wondering if Harper is next.

But there is circumstantial evidence to back the possibility of a shocking departure by Stephen Harper later this year or next.

Vancouver King · February 11, 2009

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=1274822
According to Don Martin.

He is wondering if Harper is next.

Sounds like discord in Toryland. Maybe selling out the final vestiges of conservatism in exchange for an tenuous extension of minority power has left a bad taste in the mouths of MPs and the party faithful.

Perhaps the gloom results from a lack of options - despite burgeoning party coffers, the CPC cannot do an advertising hatchet job defining Ignatieff as they did successfully to Dion as such a partisan campaign in the midst of our current downturn would spell disaster for the party.

Meanwhile the Liberal leader continues a mistake-free apprenticeship, a keen strategist with, so far, all the right moves and his confident performance has been rewarded with steady increases in polling numbers.

Contrast that picture with Stephen Harper's - an impotent prisoner of the ever deepening malaise.

Progressive Tory · February 11, 2009

Sounds like discord in Toryland. Maybe selling out the final vestiges of conservatism in exchange for an tenuous extension of minority power has left a bad taste in the mouths of MPs and the party faithful.

I predicted that he would probably resign within the next few months, and maybe even sooner. The Conservatives must know there's an election on the horizon, so they either have to get a new leader soon or try to run again with Stephen Harper. I don't see him getting in next time. With so much discontent in the West, his base; the writing is on the wall.

I never bet any steaks, but...

Moonbox · February 11, 2009

I think Harper is done by now. He's become such a polarizing figure in Canadian politics and the people the CPC need to woo over will never vote for him. He personally lost Quebec last election and people just generally don't like him. At this point I really don't see what the upside is for him could be.

capricorn · February 11, 2009

I think Harper is done by now.

I've been thinking he's had enough and wants out. Other than at Question Period he just doesn't seem to be enthusiastic about anything. This seeming lack of dynamism is bound to have a trickle down effect to the rest of the party. Yet, I think his pride will prevent him from leaving until after the next election and I doubt the party will squeeze him out beforehand. He did, after all, unite the right and lead the party to its strongest showing in the October elections.

punked · February 11, 2009

This is great news for Harper!

Progressive Tory · February 11, 2009

He did, after all, unite the right and lead the party to its strongest showing in the October elections.

Ah, but he didn't. Harper and those behind him know exactly what the results of the last election meant. Again, Dion attack ads drove 850,000 votes from the Liberals; but none of those went to the Conservatives. Instead they also lost 170,000 votes from 2006. One million votes up in smoke. Only vote splitting gave the illusion of a stronger mandate that garnered more seats, not more support. If he couldn't get a majority against Dion, he just can't do it.

I know his pride may keep him holding on, but he's not doing his party any favours. He should resign.

Edited February 11, 2009 by Progressive Tory

Progressive Tory · February 11, 2009

This is great news for Harper!

I'm curious. How so?

August1991 · February 11, 2009

Oh cripes.

A Toronto-based columnist writes an article of pure whimsy about Stephen Harper's political future, concludes that Harper is on the way out and some posters consider this as genuine insight.

Sorry, I have heard this story many times before. Harper himself knows how to bypass the MSM to get his message out. Heck, even the Canadian public is learning how to bypass the MSM.

I'll bet a steak dinner that the National Post will leave the public stage before Stephen Harper does.

Canada is bigger than Toronto and Don Martin is just some guy with a keyboard.

Edited February 11, 2009 by August1991

M.Dancer · February 11, 2009

I'll bet a steak dinner that the National Post will leave the public stage before Stephen Harper does.

I wouldn't take that bet if it was KD

blueblood · February 11, 2009

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=1274822
According to Don Martin.

He is wondering if Harper is next.

Like I've always said, party brass runs the show. If they aren't happy heads will roll. I didn't think there would be this much kerfuffle so soon.

However Ignatieff being fast tracked to lead the Liberals has turned Canadian politics on its side. The Liberal brass threw a hail mary and it paid off big time. Look for the Libs to win the next election with a strong minority, and the tories in house cleaning mode. Bernard Lord is the tories only hope of returning to power.

Tory Brass should not have made such a stink about the coalition. Party leaders are a dime a dozen.

Progressive Tory · February 11, 2009

However Ignatieff being fast tracked to lead the Liberals has turned Canadian politics on its side. The Liberal brass threw a hail mary and it paid off big time.

A New Poll today agrees with you.

Ignatieff making more favourable impression than Harper, Layton: Poll

Harper's anti-Coalition campaign was over the top and once the dust settled, he saw the destruction he'd created. If it was just the Canadian public against him, that's one thing, but there have been rumblings for some time from within. The Party blames him and I'm sure he has been given notice. He just needs to find a way to bow out gracefully, because he will never admit defeat. He gambled and lost and the Conservatives need a chance to rebuild.

blueblood · February 11, 2009

A New Poll today agrees with you.
Ignatieff making more favourable impression than Harper, Layton: Poll

Harper's anti-Coalition campaign was over the top and once the dust settled, he saw the destruction he'd created. If it was just the Canadian public against him, that's one thing, but there have been rumblings for some time from within. The Party blames him and I'm sure he has been given notice. He just needs to find a way to bow out gracefully, because he will never admit defeat. He gambled and lost and the Conservatives need a chance to rebuild.

The public does not like the coalition. It hates it. He played the war drums too soon. Had he played that in an election campaign, it would have been a disaster for the coalition parties. The only destruction occuring is the economy.

The Tories would have been better off letting the coalition take over, and watching them lead the country during tough times.

He can be turfed like Chretien, however party brass will probably look and see if Harper can put the ship back on course.

Shakeyhands · February 11, 2009

Oh cripes.
A Toronto-based columnist writes an article of pure whimsy about Stephen Harper's political future, concludes that Harper is on the way out and some posters consider this as genuine insight.

Who ISN'T in the MSM?

Canada is bigger than Toronto and Don Martin is just some guy with a keyboard.

phhhpppt.

ToadBrother · February 11, 2009

I've been thinking he's had enough and wants out. Other than at Question Period he just doesn't seem to be enthusiastic about anything.

Question Period is a joke. If that's all one is in politics for, a bit of over-the-top political theatre, then I suggest a radio call-in show is more appropriate.

This seeming lack of dynamism is bound to have a trickle down effect to the rest of the party.

When has Harper ever been particularly dynamic? He's a cold, hard man, stubborn and determined. Those are, in and of themselves, actually fairly positive attributes, but one thing he's never been is warm, dynamic and charismatic.

Yet, I think his pride will prevent him from leaving until after the next election and I doubt the party will squeeze him out beforehand. He did, after all, unite the right and lead the party to its strongest showing in the October elections.

No one is saying anything against his accomplishments, but the questions I'm sure swirling around Tory heads is whether the attributes that allowed him to force his social conservative rump into a union with the PCs are necessarily the attributes that can deliver a majority. The reality is that the Tories have one successive minorities more because of the weakness of the Liberals than because of their own strengths, and what's becoming clear is that now that the Liberals are finally putting a lot of the Chretien-year demons to rest and finally showing some unity (as fragile at this point as it may be), suddenly Harper and the Tories aren't looking so healthy. Any notion that they could hope to repeat last October, or ultimately to even form another minority is pretty questionable now.

I see Harper where Manning was before him, both strong, well-respected leaders who have hit brick walls. The real question is whether Harper has Manning's guts to put it on the line and take the bullet for the party, or whether he'll desperately try to hang on.

Unless an election happens very soon (within the next 6 to 12 months), I think Harper will likely bow out. He's compromised himself too much to go much further.

waldo · February 11, 2009

The Liberal brass threw a hail mary and it paid off big time. Look for the Libs to win the next election with a strong minority, and the tories in house cleaning mode.

I believe the correct analogy had the Liberal's intercepting the CPC pass, stopping the attempted CPC 'killer drive' in it's tracks. The injured Dion had to be taken out of the game... the alternate QB, Ignatieff, masterfully calling audibles, successfully managed to move the Liberal's forward, pushing the CPC ever farther away from the majority end-zone. The CPC have taken heavy hits, Harper is bloodied, their fans are booing loudly... it appears the Liberal's have the game in hand, the trophy in sight. All is well - the natural winning team is poised to assume it's rightful position.

capricorn · February 11, 2009

Oh cripes.
A Toronto-based columnist writes an article of pure whimsy about Stephen Harper's political future, concludes that Harper is on the way out and some posters consider this as genuine insight.

There is also the matter of the rumblings of discontent aired by some contributors to Conservative blogs. IMO, critiquing Harper's leadership is healthy and I would think the party brass is lending an ear.

capricorn · February 11, 2009

Question Period is a joke.

Correct. But Canadians tuned into politics tend to watch it. Their perception of Harper can be influenced by his performance (non-performance) in the House.

When has Harper ever been particularly dynamic?
He's a cold, hard man, stubborn and determined. Those are, in and of themselves, actually fairly positive attributes, but one thing he's never been is warm, dynamic and charismatic.

I was thinking of dynamic as in showing some fire. It seems to me the occasional spark he could muster is quickly being extinguished.

suddenly Harper and the Tories aren't looking so healthy. Any notion that they could hope to repeat last October, or ultimately to even form another minority is pretty questionable now.

IMO a loss or another minority spells the end for Harper as leader.

Unless an election happens very soon (within the next 6 to 12 months), I think Harper will likely bow out. He's compromised himself too much to go much further.

If he goes too quickly, the party is left in a lurch to select another leader. Canadians don't like uncertainty and a swift departure with no heir apparent would further harm the party in the polls. Mind you, if the party wants to voluntarily lose the next election then that would be the way to go.

normanchateau · February 11, 2009

Yet, I think his pride will prevent him from leaving until after the next election and I doubt the party will squeeze him out beforehand. He did, after all, unite the right and lead the party to its strongest showing in the October elections.

Yes, he did unite the right but the right wing vote has not increased.

2008 election

Conservative votes =5,205,334 % of votes=37.6%

2006 election

Conservative votes =5,374,071 % of votes=36.3%

2004 election

Conservative votes =3,994,682 % of votes=29.6%

2000 election

Alliance and PCs combined =4,843,927 % of votes=37.7%

1997 election

Reform and PCs combined =4,959,785 % of votes=38.2%

Brian Mulroney's numbers were far higher because he appealed to centrists more than to Reform types. Harper will not recapture those centrists which is why a new leader is required. But I agree with you that Harper won't step down until he loses another election.

This time it will be the Leader of the Opposition, and not Harper, who determines the timing.

Progressive Tory · February 11, 2009

The public does not like the coalition. It hates it. He played the war drums too soon. Had he played that in an election campaign, it would have been a disaster for the coalition parties. The only destruction occuring is the economy. The Tories would have been better off letting the coalition take over, and watching them lead the country during tough times.

You're right. Pulling out all the stops in December only gave Canadians a chance to learn of his own coalition in 2004 with Duceppe and Layton. He can't use that now. He should have waited. Instead the Liberals were able to put their ducks in a row, and present a leader with a much better chance of beating him.

It has been said that Stephen Harper usually looks at the picture. For him, if he had let the Coalition take over, with Dion at the helm, in 18 months he would almost be guaranteed a majority. Sitting in Opposition condemning the deficit, is better than sitting in gov't trying to defend it. He panicked and made a lot of mistakes.

I don't think he can turn this around. He's put himself in the middle of an economic crisis and the sitting gov't always wears the bad news.

BTW. This is not the first article on the subject. Our own newspaper (part of Sun Media) mentioned several weeks ago that the Conservative Party were putting out feelers for a new leader, suggesting, Jim Prentice, Jean Charest, Bernie Lord or Peter MacKay.

jdobbin · February 11, 2009

I think Harper is done by now.

Certainly there are a few observations from a few reporters as to Harper's disposition.

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/f...d-and-wait.aspx

A form of seasonal depression seems to have struck the House of Commons. The Prime Minister sat through Question Period looking lonely, moody and fatigued. Across the aisle, the Leader of the Opposition projected an air of futility.
There’s no secret why Stephen Harper has bags under his eyes — the economy continues to free-fall, with the latest figures revealing the first trade deficit in more than 30 years, led by exports to the U.S. that plunged 10%.

capricorn · February 11, 2009

Yes, he did unite the right but the right wing vote has not increased.

The Conservatives should have obtained more of the popular vote with the inept Dion as Liberal leader. Tomes are being written about that subject as we speak.

This time it will be the Leader of the Opposition, and not Harper, who determines the timing.

You may be right. But what if Harper decides to engineer his own defeat? In the process, the Liberals would have to govern during the worst time of the economy's descent and Harper would make way for a new leader.

jdobbin · February 11, 2009

I've been thinking he's had enough and wants out. Other than at Question Period he just doesn't seem to be enthusiastic about anything.

After reading John Ivison, it doesn't seem he in enthusiastic about Question Period either.

This seeming lack of dynamism is bound to have a trickle down effect to the rest of the party. Yet, I think his pride will prevent him from leaving until after the next election and I doubt the party will squeeze him out beforehand. He did, after all, unite the right and lead the party to its strongest showing in the October elections.

I think nothing short of a majority to change Canada would satisfy him at this point. If he feels he can't get it, he has shown a penchant for leaving office.

August1991 · February 11, 2009

There is also the matter of the rumblings of discontent aired by some contributors to Conservative blogs. IMO, critiquing Harper's leadership is healthy and I would think the party brass is lending an ear.

Huh?

From the poll posted by PT above:

By contrast, Harper was viewed favourably by 90 per cent of Conservatives but only 27 per cent of Liberals, 22 per cent of New Democrats, 14 per cent of Bloc supporters and 30 per cent of Greens.
...

On the bright side for Harper, the poll suggests Conservative voters have not deserted him despite a turbulent few months in which his government was nearly defeated and he was forced to introduce a big-spending, deficit-riddled budget.

"They love the guy," Walker said of core Conservative supporters.

"They've got nowhere else to go.

Harper's base is solid.

====

Indeed, the poll merely shows that Ignatieff is enjoying a "honeymoon" such as one exists for an opposition leader. Most Canadians (outside of the political drug addicts who post here) don't know who Ignatieff is. ("Ignatieff? Wasn't he one of those Soviet leaders who died?") When asked about him, they either say they like him or they don't know.

For myself, I think Ignatieff has a good chance of forming a minority government in the next election (likely in 2009) if only because of Quebec. I think teh BQ will lose seats to the Liberals. In turn, this will help the Liberals in Ontario.

In addition, many voters blame bad economic times on the incumbent and choose any alternative. In the past, it was unemployment. Now there is something far more generalized: many Canadians have seen their RRSPs collapse in value. Many will blame Harper.

jdobbin · February 11, 2009

A Toronto-based columnist writes an article of pure whimsy about Stephen Harper's political future, concludes that Harper is on the way out and some posters consider this as genuine insight.

Don Martin is Ottawa-based. And he came by way of Calgary where I think he has some good insights into the conservative mindset.

Sorry, I have heard this story many times before. Harper himself knows how to bypass the MSM to get his message out. Heck, even the Canadian public is learning how to bypass the MSM.

If Harper is hoping to get his message out via blogs, they are roasting him as well.

I'll bet a steak dinner that the National Post will leave the public stage before Stephen Harper does.

They both could be done in 2009.

Canada is bigger than Toronto and Don Martin is just some guy with a keyboard.

This sounds like some Quebec-based bashing of Toronto (which has nothing to do with that city) by someone on the far right with hates the media including the conservative friendly National Post. Canada is bigger than that and their keyboard.