Canadian Political Polls

[jdobbin]

I agree....we'll have to wait at least another week but the fact is, this past week is pretty well the first time that Canadians have seen Mr. Ignatieff "in action" and although one week's worth of polling doesn't mean the sky is falling, the media has made it clear that Canadians were less than impressed with his performance.

I think the media have been less than impressed with everyone everyone although more seem to find Harper more favourable.

[normanchateau]

I am officially pissed at Iggy!

I think he has dropped the ball and given Harper a nice little holiday as Prime Minister.

Based on these numbers, I think Ignatieff was wise not to trigger an election:

http://netnewsledger.com/index.php?option=...s&Itemid=90

"...new Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of Canwest News Service and Global Television reveals that a majority (53%) ‘agrees’ (20% strongly/34% somewhat) that ‘Stephen Harper and the Conservatives are doing a good job of managing the issues that are most important to Canadians and should continue to govern’."

"In contrast, only four in ten (39%) believe (13% strongly/26% somewhat) that ‘if elected, Michael Ignatieff and the Liberals would do a better job than Stephen Harper and the Conservatives of managing the issues that are most important to Canadians’."

Based on these numbers, you'd think that Conservatives would have now overtaken the Liberals in voting intentions. Almost but not quite:

"The Liberals (35%, down 1 point) and the Conservatives (34%, up 1 point) are in a statistical tie among decided voters, while the NDP (13%, up 1 point), and Green Party (8%, down 1 point) trail. The Bloc is at 10% support nationally (up 1 point), while 6% of voters remain undecided."

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Pollsters never bother to tell folks that only half the population ever shows up on election day to vote. So at best you can say there is actually 12% undecided, not including the other 50% who will likely not vote. So the whole focus of all parties are to drag citizens from the non-voter to voter category. There is where the potential gains in public support can be found, not in converting the left to the right or the right to the left, but from that big demographic of apathetic citizens who simple don't vote. Those folks need a carrot to get them into the game, and I think a lot of the partisan platforms are designed to grab these folks.

This most recent poll like all others is only one tool in the political box.

[normanchateau]

There is where the potential gains in public support can be found, not in converting the left to the right or the right to the left, but from that big demographic of apathetic citizens who simple don't vote.

Conversely, a party can make potential gains by having an opponent who makes voters apathetic, as Dion apparently did. Harper's surprisingly high 38% support in the October, 2008 election was likely influenced, at least in part, by the lowest voter turnout in the history of Canadian federal elections. Harper actually received less votes in October, 2008 than he did in January, 2006. Low voter turnout benefits the Conservatives. Older people, especially seniors, are more likely to vote. Younger people are less likely to vote. If Ignatieff hopes to increase his poll numbers, he'll need to appeal to younger voters who might not otherwise vote. This will be a challenge for him just as it has been a challenge for Harper.

[punked]

Let the free fall begin. Iggy has lost 10% in the polls in Quebec. This is where the Liberals stand to gain the most.

http://allpeopleunite.blogspot.com/2009/06...rity-among.html

[jdobbin]

Let the free fall begin. Iggy has lost 10% in the polls in Quebec. This is where the Liberals stand to gain the most.

Only the NDP would think a stronger Bloc is good for Canada.

[punked]

Only the NDP would think a stronger Bloc is good for Canada.

Funny no where did I say that. Infact my party has never stocked the Bloc flames as to scare Canada to vote for them.

[jdobbin]

Funny no where did I say that. Infact my party has never stocked the Bloc flames as to scare Canada to vote for them.

You didn't have to say it. It was implied in your cheering for the BQ rising in the polls versus a federalist party.

[punked]

You didn't have to say it. It was implied in your cheering for the BQ rising in the polls versus a federalist party.

Stoke the fear, just like you guys did in the 90's. "ONLY WE CAN BEAT THE BLOC" Do it already. Get a strong leader who has ideas that lean to the left so you can win Quebec and beat the bloc. Iggy is going to keep falling in Quebec if he keeps siding with Harper and keeps leaning to the right. He will do worse then Dion if Quebec gets to know him so call the election.

[jdobbin]

Stoke the fear, just like you guys did in the 90's. "ONLY WE CAN BEAT THE BLOC" Do it already. Get a strong leader who has ideas that lean to the left so you can win Quebec and beat the bloc. Iggy is going to keep falling in Quebec if he keeps siding with Harper and keeps leaning to the right. He will do worse then Dion if Quebec gets to know him so call the election.

I think you didn't read the article very well in terms of why support was down.

[jdobbin]

Looks like Ignatieff's build up to an election hurt him in the polls.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/090625/...ics_poll_canada

A weekly Ekos survey for the Canadian Broadcasting Corp put the Conservatives at 34.8 percent, up from 32.4 percent last week. The Liberals slipped to 32.6 percent from 33.7 percent, while the left-leaning New Democratic Party was at 14.3 percent, down from 16.3 percent.

The Liberals pushed Canada to the brink of an election last week by threatening to bring down the minority Conservative government unless it did a better job of explaining how it was tackling the economic crisis.

Now, we could face the prospect of the Tories calling a snap election in September.

[Moonbox]

THAT would go over well I'm sure. Two snap elections within a year. Ouch.

[jdobbin]

THAT would go over well I'm sure. Two snap elections within a year. Ouch.

I don't think Harper wants to go down in a confidence vote. He wants to be the one that calls the election. Ideally, he would call it one week after the Olympics in Vancouver and after giving a good news budget but I think he knows that he might be defeated before that. He may pull the trigger once the new ad campaign goes into effect in last weeks of August, first weeks of September.

[Alta4ever]

I don't think Harper wants to go down in a confidence vote. He wants to be the one that calls the election. Ideally, he would call it one week after the Olympics in Vancouver and after giving a good news budget but I think he knows that he might be defeated before that. He may pull the trigger once the new ad campaign goes into effect in last weeks of August, first weeks of September.

Doubt it, I would think the tories would want to go down on a confidence vote this, then they can say its all the liberals fault we are have our fourth election in 5 years. The first opposition day is the late part in September and Ignatieff will be itching to go before the jobless numbers improve. (Jobless numbers are the very last to drop going into a recession and the very last thing to improve when coming out of a recession).

[jdobbin]

Doubt it, I would think the tories would want to go down on a confidence vote this, then they can say its all the liberals fault we are have our fourth election in 5 years. The first opposition day is the late part in September and Ignatieff will be itching to go before the jobless numbers improve. (Jobless numbers are the very last to drop going into a recession and the very last thing to improve when coming out of a recession).

You see, I heard this stance that Harper was going to let his government fall in a confidence vote last time. I don't think Harper wants to leave it to chance. He'll blame the Liberals no matter what happens just as you did last election saying that Harper had no choice.

[Alta4ever]

You see, I heard this stance that Harper was going to let his government fall in a confidence vote last time. I don't think Harper wants to leave it to chance. He'll blame the Liberals no matter what happens just as you did last election saying that Harper had no choice.

he wouldn't get away with it twice, and I'm sure he knows it.

[jdobbin]

he wouldn't get away with it twice, and I'm sure he knows it.

Oh., I don't know about that. Blame the Liberals. That always works to get the Tory base to support it.

[Alta4ever]

Oh., I don't know about that. Blame the Liberals. That always works to get the Tory base to support it.

its pretty easy to blame the liberals when its been thier policies over the last 40 yras that have done damage to our country. You even have a party that wants to reverse its own Ei remforms from 96. As for the election, the tory base wouldn't care who called the election as the core base will never vote liberal or NDP any way, as the reform proved they will move but only to another centre right party.

[punked]

The new Angus reid poll is out as well.

"Canada’s main political parties are virtually even, according to a poll by Angus Reid Strategies. 32 per cent of respondents would vote for the governing Conservative party, while 31 per cent would support the opposition Liberal party.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) is third with 18 per cent, followed by the Bloc Québécois with 11 per cent, and the Green party with seven per "

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/33650...deral_politics/

[jdobbin]

Latest Nanos poll:

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/090627/...s_politics_poll

The Liberals were named as the top choice of 36 percent of committed voters if a federal election was held now, a Nanos Research poll showed, compared with 32 percent for the Conservatives.

The news story doesn't have any other numbers.

Edited June 27, 2009 by jdobbin

[normanchateau]

Latest Nanos poll:

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/090627/...s_politics_poll

The news story doesn't have any other numbers.

Here are the rest of the numbers:

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls...T-S09-T380E.pdf

In Ontario, Conservatives 42.4, Liberals 40.9

In British Columbia, Liberals 36.4, Conservatives 30.4

[Vancouver King]

Nik Nanos might be onto something with this:

"The sleeper issue in the next federal election might well be minority government fatigue. Prior to the first minority government in 2004, there was a sense that minority governments would have a positive influence on the political process as it would force parties and leaders to work together. Minority government was also seen as a positive factor in the first Harper government where Canadians could try an alternative to the Liberals while minimizing risks.

"However, the issue of continued minority governments in the context of an economic downturn, creates a different lens where voters may be more concerned about the distraction of brinkmanship politics and its possible negative impact on any minority government's ability to govern."

http://www.nikonthenumbers.com/topics/show/133

[punked]

Latest Nanos poll:

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/090627/...s_politics_poll

The news story doesn't have any other numbers.

Looks like a real out lier. The last two polls had the NDP showing some strength in Ontario, and the Cons in then Teens in Atlantic Canada. The numbers don't look right when you look at the regional break down.

[punked]

I know this poll says more about the Bloc and Libs in PQ but 15% for the NDP aint too bad.

http://farnwide.blogspot.com/2009/06/leger-poll.html

[punked]

Newest poll. Nothing has really changed

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/upl...t-_july-2_1.pdf

The only interesting thing about this poll is the assessment of the voters.

“If you leave aside regional patterns, which of course remain dramatic, the demographic profiles of a Liberal and Conservative voter are remarkably similar.”

We have been saying the Liberal and Conservative parties are the same for years. Finally someone does a poll and finds that to be true. Time for something different please.