Canadian Political Polls

[Hydraboss]

Leafless, the problem with your idea is that it's not just Kwebek that votes that way. Every region votes one of two ways (or a combination): who will give the most to my province & who do I NOT want in power. Ontario votes against the Conservatives; Alberta votes against the Liberals; the east coast votes for whomever gives them the most taxpayer's cash; and Kwebek...well...votes in a party for the same reasons as the east coast.

This is called regionalism to the extreme.

The west learned how there is little positive effect for them regardless of who they vote for (see: Mulroney). In the end, the only thing left is to vote for those that do the least amount of damage to their respective provinces. Federalism in this country is dead, and has been for many years. Now we just enjoy disliking each other.

The only thing most provinces agree on is that no one likes Kwebek.

[waldo]

There's a hell of a lot more than just two tiers of Albertans these days. The point is, Harper has done nothing of consequence for Alberta since being in power. Nobody really expected him to. The reality of the Canadian political system is that, once elected, politicians must do whatever they can to stay in the good graces of Kwebek and Ontario. The rest don't matter (except the east coast - they'll vote for whomever gives them the most money).

The ONLY reason Harper gets votes out here is because he's not Liberal. NDP and Green aren't even worth mentioning in Alberta, with the exception of the single NDP riding which is at the University of Alberta (it's a protest vote by people who don't pay taxes).

what?.....you mean there are Albertans... and then there are Albertans!

surprised you didn't associate the Strathcona results to the high percentage of francophones - you definitely are slipping

[Hydraboss]

what?.....you mean there are Albertans... and then there are Albertans!

Of course there are. There has been a huge influx of people from other parts of the country in recent years. The ones that come to make cash and get out tend to keep their political views. Those that move here and intend on staying change their views to a much more conservative one once they experience the financial benefits of being in this province. Of course, then there's also the fact that they're surrounded by people who make no secret of their political will and that tends to rub off on them. This is no different from any other part of the country. Harper is "from" Alberta the way Newfoundlanders living in camps in Ft. MacMurray are "from" Alberta.

surprised you didn't associate the Strathcona results to the high percentage of francophones - you definitely are slipping

Why am I slipping? The french vote would likely have nothing to do with the Strathcona vote. It's not a french center, it's a university center and that explains the block-voting that takes place. They vote based on their ideals and lack of experience in the "real world", and I would expect no less.

Want to blame the french? Okay. How about Beaumont? Oh wait. They voted for a Conservative too.

[normanchateau]

Is this how the radical left's mind works?

That the decision by Flaherty to end the tax loophole was influenced by Harper's evangelical religous beliefs?

Who from the radical left said that Harper's religious beliefs were behind ending the income trust loophole?

[normanchateau]

Harper was from Toronto, not the west. (he's not an Albertan, but he's played one on tv) Harper will get the vote out west, not because he's "from" here, but because he's not a Liberal. End of story.

Absolutely correct on all counts.

Harper even went to the University of Toronto for two months after graduating from high school. Then he dropped out and moved to Alberta.

[waldo]

Of course there are. There has been a huge influx of people from other parts of the country in recent years. The ones that come to make cash and get out tend to keep their political views. Those that move here and intend on staying change their views to a much more conservative one once they experience the financial benefits of being in this province. Of course, then there's also the fact that they're surrounded by people who make no secret of their political will and that tends to rub off on them. This is no different from any other part of the country. Harper is "from" Alberta the way Newfoundlanders living in camps in Ft. MacMurray are "from" Alberta.

typically..... transplants retain their political allegiance - although given the apparent strong sheep mentality within Alberta there could be "influence" at play. Your assessment doesn't align with the bleating heard far and wide... we hear so often about "Harper, the native Albertan son"... "Harper, he's one of ours"... bleat... bleat... bleat...

Why am I slipping? The french vote would likely have nothing to do with the Strathcona vote. It's not a french center, it's a university center and that explains the block-voting that takes place. They vote based on their ideals and lack of experience in the "real world", and I would expect no less.

Want to blame the french? Okay. How about Beaumont? Oh wait. They voted for a Conservative too.

apparently, you seem to be confused between the electoral map of Strathcona versus the Edmonton community of Strathcona... it appears the electoral map of Strathcona comprises some 30+ Edmonton communities, the majority of which are in no proximity to the UofA. The Edmonton community of Strathcona is stated as having the largest francophone numbers in all of Edmonton... so ya, I was having some fun at your self-professed "separatist bent" expense. The NDP winner won a close vote victory over the Conservative incumbent, Mr. Guergis; however, it appears that victory drew well across all polling stations within those 30+ Edmonton communities... so - it's quite a narrow skewed summation on your part to suggest a NDP victory won at the hands of those "UofA students not paying taxes"... n'est–ce pas?

[normanchateau]

typically..... transplants retain their political allegiance - although given the apparent strong sheep mentality within Alberta there could be "influence" at play.

Apparently so. Stephen Harper was a Young Liberal while in Toronto but switched to the Progressive Conservatives after moving to Alberta.

[M.Dancer]

Who from the radical left said that Harper's religious beliefs were behind ending the income trust loophole?

Just following the thread you wove. You started by saying Harpers beliefs made him do X and when it has been shown he has done nothing of the sort you show something else, in this case Income trusts.

Now don't blame me, I'm not one of the hateful anti christian bigots who see bogeymen everywhere...

[jdobbin]

There's a hell of a lot more than just two tiers of Albertans these days.

So what makes a real Albertan?

[normanchateau]

Just following the thread you wove. You started by saying Harpers beliefs made him do X and when it has been shown he has done nothing of the sort you show something else, in this case Income trusts.

Good, at least you acknowledge that I did not say that Harper's religious beliefs had anything to do with his position on income trusts. My point of course was that Harper has been known to break promises. Here are more examples:

http://trustbreaker.freehostia.com/

[normanchateau]

"Michael Ignatieff described his party as "fit to govern" Friday as a poll showed the Grits leading the Conservatives for the first time since the October election in an Ipsos Reid poll.

While the Liberal lead of 36 per cent to 33 could be enough to form government, the poll found Prime Minister Stephen Harper outranking Ignatieff on many counts on the eve of a national Liberal convention vote confirming his four-month-old leadership.

Pollster John Wright said the Liberals' biggest strength appears to be their brand, while the Conservatives' strength is seen as Harper's leadership.

"Ignatieff is still unknown or is still an enigma," Wright said. "When you compare him with Mr. Harper, Harper's much better defined and much more positive."

Those who regarded the Liberals as ready to return to power totalled 45 per cent of 1,001 adults polled.

"The rich base now of the Liberals put it in such a place they could probably form the government (because) of the voting tilt in the country," said Wright, senior vice-president of Ipsos Reid.

In Ontario, the Liberals have a 10-point lead over the Conservatives.

And while the Liberals in Quebec trail the Bloc Quebecois 34 per cent to 32 per cent, the Conservatives are far behind, with just 14 per cent of the support of decided voters.

The poll suggested six in 10 Canadians believe the nearly three decades Ignatieff spent outside Canada as a journalist and teacher do not make him any less qualified to lead the country.

he country."

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/Grits+lead+To...5148/story.html

Since the poll shows that Harper is in fact more popular than his party, I don't see the party dumping Harper in the foreseeable future.

[Hydraboss]

typically..... transplants retain their political allegiance - although given the apparent strong sheep mentality within Alberta there could be "influence" at play. Your assessment doesn't align with the bleating heard far and wide... we hear so often about "Harper, the native Albertan son"... "Harper, he's one of ours"... bleat... bleat... bleat...

apparently, you seem to be confused between the electoral map of Strathcona versus the Edmonton community of Strathcona... it appears the electoral map of Strathcona comprises some 30+ Edmonton communities, the majority of which are in no proximity to the UofA. The Edmonton community of Strathcona is stated as having the largest francophone numbers in all of Edmonton... so ya, I was having some fun at your self-professed "separatist bent" expense. The NDP winner won a close vote victory over the Conservative incumbent, Mr. Guergis; however, it appears that victory drew well across all polling stations within those 30+ Edmonton communities... so - it's quite a narrow skewed summation on your part to suggest a NDP victory won at the hands of those "UofA students not paying taxes"... n'est–ce pas?

Uhmmmmm....first of all, I made reference to the only NDP riding in Alberta...Old Strathcona (82ave area aka Whyte Ave). Second, Strathcona is not an Edmonton riding. It's a county outside of Edmonton (includes Sherwood Park, Ardrossan, etc). Third, the NDP MP beat out sitting Conservative MP Rahim Jaffer in Edmonton-Strathcona. Guergis is a Ms. not a Mr. and SHE'S in Ontario (Simcoe–Grey (Ontario)). She's also remarkably hot. And Jaffer's wife (but I assume that was the point of your misguided post).

Learn your politics, small one. Can you hear me now?

[Leafless]

Leafless, the problem with your idea is that it's not just Kwebek that votes that way. Every region votes one of two ways (or a combination): who will give the most to my province & who do I NOT want in power.

You make it sound as if every province has at least as many seats as Quebec.

They don't and outside of Ontario, Quebec has the most poltical influence of any other province in Canada.

This is called regionalism to the extreme.

Relating to Quebec it is called culturalism to the extreme with the emphasis on political power that in turn gives them what they want regionally and and to a degree nationally.

This is totally different than the normal regional demands of other provinces in Canada.

This is why I say we fight fire with fire, voting 'en masse', especially in Ontario, to keep Quebec from culturally and politcally controlling Canada.

[Smallc]

They don't and outside of Ontario, Quebec has the most poltical influence of any other province in Canada.

As they should. In fact, the 4 most populous provinces should actually have more seats.

[Shakeyhands]

As they should. In fact, the 4 most populous provinces should actually have more seats.

You know, I've never been able to make out why this point escapes so many....

[waldo]

The ONLY reason Harper gets votes out here is because he's not Liberal. NDP and Green aren't even worth mentioning in Alberta, with the exception of the single NDP riding which is at the University of Alberta (it's a protest vote by people who don't pay taxes)

surprised you didn't associate the Strathcona results to the high percentage of francophones - you definitely are slipping

Why am I slipping? The french vote would likely have nothing to do with the Strathcona vote.

apparently, you seem to be confused between the electoral map of Strathcona versus the Edmonton community of Strathcona... it appears the electoral map of Strathcona comprises some 30+ Edmonton communities, the majority of which are in no proximity to the UofA. The Edmonton community of Strathcona is stated as having the largest francophone numbers in all of Edmonton... so ya, I was having some fun at your self-professed "separatist bent" expense. The NDP winner won a close vote victory over the Conservative incumbent, Mr. Guergis; however, it appears that victory drew well across all polling stations within those 30+ Edmonton communities... so - it's quite a narrow skewed summation on your part to suggest a NDP victory won at the hands of those "UofA students not paying taxes"... n'est–ce pas?

Uhmmmmm....first of all, I made reference to the only NDP riding in Alberta...Old Strathcona (82ave area aka Whyte Ave).

no – you made a reference to the, as you stated, “single NDP riding which is at the University of Alberta”… you’ve only now, in your latest reply, added the “Old Strathcona” reference. You associated the riding populace base with the UofA… whereas, that UofA populace base is a very small component of the overall riding… the riding of Strathcona, the riding that composes the 30+ communities I made reference to (ya, ya… the riding of Edmonton-Strathcona). Point in fact: as I understand it, that direct UofA populace base that you attribute the NDP win to… is, in itself, rather small. Now, you might begin to gather numbers if you start extending out to surrounding communities adjacent to the UofA… like the Edmonton community of Strathcona (which apparently includes Old Strathcona) but that’s not what you said. You very precisely stated the “NDP riding which is at the University of Alberta”. You mistakenly (purposely, misguidedly) referred to the, as you stated, “single NDP riding which is at the University of Alberta”, because it gave you a hook to disparage the NDP win… attributing it simply to those, as you implied, “non tax paying” protest voting students.

now, I could have picked another surrounding adjacent community close to the UofA… but it seems I picked a good one since it’s the one you went to in your follow-up where you state, “I made reference to the only NDP riding in Alberta… Old Strathcona (82ave area aka Whyte Ave)”….. which, as I’ve just now stated, is a part of the greater Edmonton community of Strathcona. Thanks for validating that I chose a representative Edmonton community… of course, it suit my purpose since, as I stated, “the Edmonton community of Strathcona is stated as having the largest francophone numbers in all of Edmonton”.

Second, Strathcona is not an Edmonton riding. It's a county outside of Edmonton (includes Sherwood Park, Ardrossan, etc).

oh pleasssse… in a federal electoral district context, Strathcona is not an Edmonton riding… but Edmonton-Strathcona is an Edmonton riding? That’s what you’re grasping at? Talk about anal-retentive! As I understand it, there is the community of Strathcona within Edmonton (which includes Old Strathcona)… and there is the federal riding of Strathcona – and if you’d like to be anal about it – the federal riding of Edmonton-Strathcona. And yes, apparently there is also a county of Strathcona… at least there is for now – until regionalization initiatives eventually (probably) see Edmonton amalgamating it.

Third, the NDP MP beat out sitting Conservative MP Rahim Jaffer in Edmonton-Strathcona. Guergis is a Ms. not a Mr. and SHE'S in Ontario (Simcoe–Grey (Ontario)). She's also remarkably hot. And Jaffer's wife (but I assume that was the point of your misguided post).

not misguided at all… the jab at Jaffer obviously hit (your) home. Besides, Jaffer’s a buffoon so I certainly won’t hesitate to mock him at any point.

here’s looking forward to more of your pinhead, skewed, separatist leaning, Quebec biased rants… can you hear me now?

[Leafless]

As they should. In fact, the 4 most populous provinces should actually have more seats.

What the hell does that have to do with Quebec entrapping majority English Canada with a minority cultural French stranglehold?

[Hydraboss]

no – you made a reference to the, as you stated, “single NDP riding which is at the University of Alberta”… you’ve only now, in your latest reply, added the “Old Strathcona” reference. You associated the riding populace base with the UofA… whereas, that UofA populace base is a very small component of the overall riding… the riding of Strathcona, the riding that composes the 30+ communities I made reference to (ya, ya… the riding of Edmonton-Strathcona). Point in fact: as I understand it, that direct UofA populace base that you attribute the NDP win to… is, in itself, rather small. Now, you might begin to gather numbers if you start extending out to surrounding communities adjacent to the UofA… like the Edmonton community of Strathcona (which apparently includes Old Strathcona) but that’s not what you said. You very precisely stated the “NDP riding which is at the University of Alberta”. You mistakenly (purposely, misguidedly) referred to the, as you stated, “single NDP riding which is at the University of Alberta”, because it gave you a hook to disparage the NDP win… attributing it simply to those, as you implied, “non tax paying” protest voting students.

now, I could have picked another surrounding adjacent community close to the UofA… but it seems I picked a good one since it’s the one you went to in your follow-up where you state, “I made reference to the only NDP riding in Alberta… Old Strathcona (82ave area aka Whyte Ave)”….. which, as I’ve just now stated, is a part of the greater Edmonton community of Strathcona. Thanks for validating that I chose a representative Edmonton community… of course, it suit my purpose since, as I stated, “the Edmonton community of Strathcona is stated as having the largest francophone numbers in all of Edmonton”.

oh pleasssse… in a federal electoral district context, Strathcona is not an Edmonton riding… but Edmonton-Strathcona is an Edmonton riding? That’s what you’re grasping at? Talk about anal-retentive! As I understand it, there is the community of Strathcona within Edmonton (which includes Old Strathcona)… and there is the federal riding of Strathcona – and if you’d like to be anal about it – the federal riding of Edmonton-Strathcona. And yes, apparently there is also a county of Strathcona… at least there is for now – until regionalization initiatives eventually (probably) see Edmonton amalgamating it.

not misguided at all… the jab at Jaffer obviously hit (your) home. Besides, Jaffer’s a buffoon so I certainly won’t hesitate to mock him at any point.

here’s looking forward to more of your pinhead, skewed, separatist leaning, Quebec biased rants… can you hear me now?

My god are you dense! Edmonton-Strathcona and Strathcona are NOT THE SAME RIDINGS! Edmonton-Strathcona is NOT made up of "30+ communities", it's a part of the south side of Edmonton INCLUDING THE UofA and is where Linda Duncan (NDP) took out Jaffer. Strathcona is NOT part of Edmonton and contains federal ridings that ARE 100% CONSERVATIVE.

What part of this are having difficulty understanding????????????? I know that you're simply looking at Wiki, but try to understand the larger picture here.

Edited May 2, 2009 by Hydraboss

[CANADIEN]

What the hell does that have to do with Quebec entrapping majority English Canada with a minority cultural French stranglehold?

Nothing. One is a fact, the other one a delusion of yoor clueless mind.

[Smallc]

You know, I've never been able to make out why this point escapes so many....

Yes, if fact, I think that if we are to truly have rep by pop, at a time in the future when we open the constitution we should eliminate the floor on seats. Assuming we would allow provinces to round up (so that each could at least have one), that would mean (what they have right now in brackets):

YK - 1(1), NWT - 1(1), NU - 1(1), BC - 45(36), AB - 37(28), SK - 11(14), MB - 13(14), ON - 135(107), QC - 78(75), NB - 8(10), PEI - 2(4), NS - 10(11), and N + L - 6(7).

That means that when they are increased next time for BC, AB, and ON, (2011? I think) based on preliminary numbers (I can't remember them exactly right now), there will still not be enough seats for the 4 biggest provinces and still too many for the smaller ones.

[Wild Bill]

Yes, if fact, I think that if we are to truly have rep by pop, at a time in the future when we open the constitution we should eliminate the floor on seats. Assuming we would allow provinces to round up (so that each could at least have one), that would mean (what they have right now in brackets):

YK - 1(1), NWT - 1(1), NU - 1(1), BC - 45(36), AB - 37(28), SK - 11(14), MB - 13(14), ON - 135(107), QC - 78(75), NB - 8(10), PEI - 2(4), NS - 10(11), and N + L - 6(7).

That means that when they are increased next time for BC, AB, and ON, (2011? I think) based on preliminary numbers (I can't remember them exactly right now), there will still not be enough seats for the 4 biggest provinces and still too many for the smaller ones.

We can't have "rep by pop" until and unless we get a Triple E Senate. The Commons is supposed to be based on population but the more equal by pop you make it the more you screw the smaller provinces and regions out of any voice in Parliament.

What most sensible parliamentary democracies do is have an Upper House to represent the regions, where every state or region has the same number of Senators.

That way you have "rep by pop" in your lower House with 'rep by region' in an Upper House. Check and balance.

We've never had that. We have a flawed 'rep by pop' Lower House and we have a geriatic rest home for party bag men.

That's it. The Canadian way!

[Vancouver King]

Latest from Nik Nanos which confirms other recent polls with one interesting exception: How to explain the significant uptick in Tory support in Ontario?

Liberals: 36%

CPC: 33

NDP: 15

Bloc: 9

Green: 7

http://www.nanosresearch.com/main.asp

Edited May 2, 2009 by Vancouver King

[normanchateau]

Latest from Nik Nanos which confirms other recent polls with one interesting exception: How to explain the significant uptick in Tory support in Ontario?

Liberals: 36%

CPC: 33

NDP: 13

Bloc: 10

Green: 8

http://www.nanosresearch.com/main.asp

The Ontario numbers are surprising but the Liberals remain in first place in Ontario.

Another surprising finding is in the West. In the past month, the Conservatives have dropped 4% and the NDP has gone up 4%. The Conservatives are now not doing much better in the West than in Ontario

[Smallc]

What most sensible parliamentary democracies do is have an Upper House to represent the regions, where every state or region has the same number of Senators.

That's what our senate is (except for the anomaly that exists in Newfoundland). If the Canadian Senate were to be elected, it would change the way it works and make it a much more partisan place. Now that said, if a government were to hold a vote, and the people were to vote for an elected Senate, I would not be opposed. Perhaps you should be pushing the Conservative government to ask he Canadian people. I don't think any of the parties (besides possibly the Bloc) would be opposed to putting elections or even Triple E to a vote.

The reality is though, our system works as is right now. Maybe we shouldn't fix what isn't broken.

Oh, and Canada's senate does a great deal of work...all of the time. Just watch a Senate Committee.

[Smallc]

The Ontario numbers are surprising but the Liberals remain in first place in Ontario.

1 time out of 20 the polls are wrong. I think there is something wrong with those Ontario numbers as they don't fit with those from others.