Canadian Political Polls

[jdobbin]

Agreed. More hay can be made with with less risk and less effort with the opposition afraid of the numbers.

The risk is that Tory support since 2006 always goes down during Parliamentary sessions. Harper will know this.

He also knows that he has been given a lot of kicks at the can. Will his party want him for another minority?

As I see it, if he thinks he can get the majority by calling a snap vote, he will.

[Shady]

The risk is that Tory support since 2006 always goes down during Parliamentary sessions.

Any party in power usually sees a bit of a drop in support during Parliamentary sessions. However, Harper should not, and will not call an election. Perhaps something for end of October, or early November. But even that's unlikely. I think it's more likely next spring. When the economy has clearly come out of recession.

And I think the Libearls are losing support, because frankly, Canadian's don't wanna vote for an American for Prime Minister.

Edited August 24, 2009 by Shady

[Riverwind]

So you think it is impossible?

No just that it would be a very dumb move. OTOH, Harper has made some very dumb moves so it can't be ruled out but one would expect that he has learned something after the last near death experience.

[jdobbin]

No just that it would be a very dumb move. OTOH, Harper has made some very dumb moves so it can't be ruled out but one would expect that he has learned something after the last near death experience.

When Harper sees an opportunity to go for the throat, he often goes for it.

If he has 40% in the polls in September, I am sure he will feel a lot of pressure to go.

[jdobbin]

Any party in power usually sees a bit of a drop in support during Parliamentary sessions. However, Harper should not, and will not call an election. Perhaps something for end of October, or early November. But even that's unlikely. I think it's more likely next spring. When the economy has clearly come out of recession.

Why do you think he called the last election? I kept hearing it was impossible then too.

And I think the Libearls are losing support, because frankly, Canadian's don't wanna vote for an American for Prime Minister.

I haven't seen any numbers to suggest that. Have you seen a poll to indicate such?

[punked]

The really bad thing for the Liberals here is that IR always poll the number 3-5% lower then they should so are looking at really good NDP numbers. WOW though Harper at 40%, Iggy is just doing bad, maybe he will do good in China this week. Like anyone cares when someone is in China. He wont be in the news again for another week. He needs to stop acting like PM and start acting like Opposition leader that will serve him much better.

[jdobbin]

The really bad thing for the Liberals here is that IR always poll the number 3-5% lower then they should so are looking at really good NDP numbers. WOW though Harper at 40%, Iggy is just doing bad, maybe he will do good in China this week. Like anyone cares when someone is in China. He wont be in the news again for another week. He needs to stop acting like PM and start acting like Opposition leader that will serve him much better.

So you think this poll is completely accurate and that the Tories are headed for a majority in an election they call in the fall?

[punked]

So you think this poll is completely accurate and that the Tories are headed for a majority in an election they call in the fall?

No I think it is a terrible poll. I do however know that IR polls the NDP remarkably low while they can often be ok with the Liberal and Con number however in this case I think the Harper numbers are way too high. I do however think the Liberals need to rethink their strategy of offering no policy. Dobbin I don't want to see a Conservative majority either so I will work hard for the NDP(who is doing really well for the NDP) I suggest you work hard on telling the Liberals you know they need to get to their act together.

Edited August 24, 2009 by punked

[jdobbin]

No I think it is a terrible poll. I do however know that IR polls the NDP remarkably low while they can often be ok with the Liberal and Con number however in this cause I think the Harper numbers are way too high. I do however think the Liberals need to rethink their strategy of offering no policy. Dobbin I don't want to see a Conservative majority either so I will work hard for the NDP(who is doing really well for the NDP) I suggest you work hard on telling the Liberals you know they need to get to their act together.

I've said a couple of times that Tory fortunes rise every summer. Why not? When not in the House, the governing party does have to get legislation through the house and face the Opposition daily.

As far as policy goes, I full expect we will see more details in the fall. I'm concerned though that there are still too many inexperienced people in the leader's office who could harm the ability of the leader to get the message out. The caucus meeting next week will likely set the tone for what to expect in September.

If this poll is accurate and confirmed by others, I think Harper will be sorely tempted to go for an election.

[Visionseeker]

Mark my words:

There will be a fall election. The Conservatives will lose power. A Liberal majority has slim possibilities, but remains somewhat possible.

Why?

After fullfilling 4 of their five campaign promises from 2006, the Conservatives have governed as reluctant caretakers; eschewing much of their ideological leanings in favour of the easy road towards retaining power. Thus they have failed to promote their conservative substances whilst adopting a pseudo-liberal style of governance. In short, they come across as phony and, after 3 years at the helm, neglectful. The cupboard of accomplishments is not one to envy.

How much the Liberals manage to exploit this will largely determine the depth of their victory. But I can't help but see the parralellels to the Diefenbaker-Pearson era and wonder if another minority government isn't somehow preordained.

IMO, a BIG intangible influence will stem from the outcome of the health care debate in the States. If a robust public option appears, then I would wager that the right in all of North America will have lost a lot of credibility.

[August1991]

Well, at those numbers, we could see Harper call a snap election.

As I've said from the beginning, Liberal numbers always go down in the summer and then as soon as Parliament is in session, things settle back again.

Harper might want to take the opportunity now to get that majority.

I'm with Riverwind. Why would Harper call an election now? And why do Liberal numbers go down in the summer?

Two relevant quotes from the NP article:

"The problem is that people don't really know him very well. Even the people who want to be supportive are somewhat tentative," said Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Reid Public Affairs.

The problem with Igantieff is that there is nothing to know. Or, as one commenter put it: " Iggy is a twice removed from reality moron. He thinks he's clever and witty, but he's just a jerk."

And watch the Quebec numbers:

The Bloc Quebecois lead with 35%, followed by the Liberals at 29% and the Conservatives with 20%.

[capricorn]

After fullfilling 4 of their five campaign promises from 2006, the Conservatives have governed as reluctant caretakers; eschewing much of their ideological leanings in favour of the easy road towards retaining power. Thus they have failed to promote their conservative substances whilst adopting a pseudo-liberal style of governance. In short, they come across as phony and, after 3 years at the helm, neglectful. The cupboard of accomplishments is not one to envy.

This minority Conservative government may be holding onto power because of the shortcomings of the new Liberal leader. Or a lack of publicly enunciated policy. Who knows. But perhaps their survival can be attributed to the fact they are just delivering what Canadians want. Perhaps Conservatism as we knew it is dead in this country and the Conservative Party is adapting to a new reality. I think that's what the opposition need to fear the most.

[jdobbin]

I'm with Riverwind. Why would Harper call an election now? And why do Liberal numbers go down in the summer?

The same reason Tory numbers went down in summers when the Liberals were in power: Exposure with no daily questioning by the Opposition.

As for calling an election, you think the Tories will let a potential shift to majority numbers pass?

Two relevant quotes from the NP article:The problem with Igantieff is that there is nothing to know. Or, as one commenter put it: " Iggy is a twice removed from reality moron. He thinks he's clever and witty, but he's just a jerk."

And watch the Quebec numbers:

I suppose we will know more in a series of polls in the next days. If the Tories truly are up, why would they not consider going to the polls?

[punked]

I suppose we will know more in a series of polls in the next days. If the Tories truly are up, why would they not consider going to the polls?

Dobbin where is this question coming from. You have screamed like a thousand times about how Canadians don't want an election right now and how the Liberals are gods gift to Canada for not taking us there. Now if the Conservatives feel the same way it some how puzzles you?

[jdobbin]

Dobbin where is this question coming from. You have screamed like a thousand times about how Canadians don't want an election right now and how the Liberals are gods gift to Canada for not taking us there. Now if the Conservatives feel the same way it some how puzzles you?

Actually, I have said that while people say they don't want an election they also say they don't want a minority. Some also say they don't want election posturing but then they don't want votes in favour of this or that. It seems people are not sure anymore of anything.

It is contradictory and that is where we are at in this country.

[Malaclypse the Younger]

I suppose we will know more in a series of polls in the next days. If the Tories truly are up, why would they not consider going to the polls?

I would hope that it's because they've finally decided to follow their own policy on not calling opportunistic elections. But it's probably more likely because we're in tough economics times right now, and calling an election in an attempt to grab a few more seats would likely backfire and result in even fewer seats.

[Malaclypse the Younger]

Actually, I have said that while people say they don't want an election they also say they don't want a minority. Some also say they don't want election posturing but then they don't want votes in favour of this or that. It seems people are not sure anymore of anything.

It is contradictory and that is where we are at in this country.

I don't think it's all that contradictory. I think people are dissatisfied with the choices they are left with. There is a hardened minority of ignoramuses that will keep voting for the Conservatives no matter what they do (that is not to say that there is not a similar group who will do the same for the Liberals. But the leader of the Liberal Party is not the Prime Minister), who manage to keep them afloat as a minority government. The rest of Canada, the majority, is not interested in them, but are also not interested in all voting for the same party in order to form a majority government owned by one party.

A coalition government would actually make the most sense, if we had any parties that could be counted for and that were really committed to taking political risks to make our country better. Instead, we've got a choice between a bunch of selfish, floppy limp noodles that will spend a decade hesitating to implement even one policy that would create positive social change; another party that will say anything to get votes and get in bed with any strongly emotional idea without really thinking about it too much; a third that just wants to live in its mom's basement, acting surly and smug in a really inappropriate manner, and pretending it's independent when it asks for an allowance; and a fourth that is really trying hard but just can't seem to get its foot in the door of the House of Commons. And in the other corner, we've got a bunch of whiney, cynical, greedy kindergartners that think politics is a game of Monopoly.

Given this, it's rather hard to say "Yeah, let's have another election", because it won't change anything. It's like trying to buy a week's worth of groceries with a handful of change and hoping you'll be richer if you stare at it and blink hard enough.

Edited August 24, 2009 by Malaclypse the Younger

[madmax]

Actually, I have said that while people say they don't want an election they also say they don't want a minority.

NEWSFLASH!!! AUGUST 23rd.....

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=1918505

New poll suggests Canadians are warming to minority rule53.9% Supportive; Election-ready Conservative MPs focused on majority

[Keepitsimple]

I've said it before.....the longer the Conservatives govern, the more comfortable Canadians become. For years, Chretien and Martin demonized Conservatives as ultra right wing zeolots who would wreck the country....and a lot of people bought into it. People are not really buying that crap any more and as each month and year passes, the Conservatives continue to show that they are a capable centrist government - and getting better. The stars are aligning - the economy's recovering, the Olympics are around the corner. By the time the government's full term is up, Canadians will view the Conservatives as that comfortable rocking chair.....and maybe even a majority. They will NOT be calling a snap election unless the Liberals are dumb enough to force one. As someone else said - the Conservatives can effectively govern with their strong minority and strong support in the polls. I guess we'll see in September/October.

[Mr.Canada]

I've said it before.....the longer the Conservatives govern, the more comfortable Canadians become. For years, Chretien and Martin demonized Conservatives as ultra right wing zeolots who would wreck the country....and a lot of people bought into it. People are not really buying that crap any more and as each month and year passes, the Conservatives continue to show that they are a capable centrist government - and getting better. The stars are aligning - the economy's recovering, the Olympics are around the corner. By the time the government's full term is up, Canadians will view the Conservatives as that comfortable rocking chair.....and maybe even a majority. They will NOT be calling a snap election unless the Liberals are dumb enough to force one. As someone else said - the Conservatives can effectively govern with their strong minority and strong support in the polls. I guess we'll see in September/October.

This is great, finally some are waking up to reality. Welcome to Canada and thank you for this great post. I hope everyone reads it and the 416 stops voting Liberal. Fortress 416 is the Liberals only hope, if it wasn't for the 416 the Liberals would have been wiped out.

[August1991]

The same reason Tory numbers went down in summers when the Liberals were in power: Exposure with no daily questioning by the Opposition.

That's a specious argument unless you are comparing Michael Ignatieff to Stockwell Day.

I suppose we will know more in a series of polls in the next days.

Here you and I can agree. Is this Ipsos-Reid poll a rogue or has there been a shift?

...positive social change...

It's not quite clear to me what you're jabbering on there about Macopalypse (in a thread about polls no less) but then the phrase "positive social change" caught my eye.

Who says a change is positive and why this desire to involve the rest of us? What gives you the right? Are you Mussolini?

[Jerry J. Fortin]

The only poll that matters to me is the one with results posted after a general election. There is no doubt that public opinion will sway from day to day, and there is no doubt the politicians pay close attention to these wanderings of public sentiment because our system allows them to use these things against us. Even so, neither party leader is likely to be fool enough to use summer numbers for a reason to initiate an election call.

I would think with unemployment numbers trending higher that Iggy will use the summer long EI conference to push through changes to the current setup. Harper can resist or not, face an election or not simply based upon this one issue. He knows this but still refuses to play the game Iggy wants him to. Harper wanted the summer to provide evidence of economic improvements, what he got was typical. The recession may be in fact over in terms of the business cycle, but employment is still in the tank and consumer confidence is with it. The banks may be stable and the auto industry may be experiencing a rebirth, but the debt is rising and the cost of servicing it will explode when the economy finally turns around. Harper is not a fool, he knows this.

[jdobbin]

That's a specious argument unless you are comparing Michael Ignatieff to Stockwell Day.

I am not comparing to anyone.

The Tories have been able to go around making $2 billion of spending announcements. The prime minister has attended a few international summits and has been able to use to the full weight of the government to do what you have already identified as PR exercises.

The Opposition does not have that type of exposure in summer. Even if they attend every baby kissing function, it doesn't get or deserve national exposure.

Parliament is the great equalizer.

Here you and I can agree. Is this Ipsos-Reid poll a rogue or has there been a shift?

And if there has been a shift, will it survive into the fall?

[Mr.Canada]

This is great, finally some are waking up to reality. Welcome to Canada and thank you for this great post. I hope everyone reads it and the 416 stops voting Liberal. Fortress 416 is the Liberals only hope, if it wasn't for the 416 the Liberals would have been wiped out.

Whoa, dobbin, I thought that Mr. Ignotieff was to be the answer to your liberal prayers. What happened?

I remember people here saying that once Ignotieff got in the Liberal Leadership he would cruise to an easy victory and maybe majority...what happened?

You finally realizing that Toronto doesn't run the country anymore and never will the rest of us be held hostage by the will of Toronto?

Edited August 24, 2009 by Mr.Canada

[punked]

I am not comparing to anyone.

The Tories have been able to go around making $2 billion of spending announcements. The prime minister has attended a few international summits and has been able to use to the full weight of the government to do what you have already identified as PR exercises.

The Opposition does not have that type of exposure in summer. Even if they attend every baby kissing function, it doesn't get or deserve national exposure.

Parliament is the great equalizer.

And if there has been a shift, will it survive into the fall?

Dobbin What happened to Harper telling the people of the North they were shitty arseholes but misplacing an u in a word? What happened to the NDP convention being nothing? I mean honestly you push all this pro Liberal news you expect them to stay somewhere in the news. Iggy is losing this thing, not only that but I hear his whole inner circle is from the 416, you guys don't need the T.O. you have that get some people from outside.