Canadian Political Polls

Dave_ON · July 13, 2009

The EKOS pollster says the most danger seems to be with the NDP.
http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/upl...rt-_july-9_.pdf

Ontario goes back and forth between Liberals and Tories.

The Bloc remains strong although the large sample Leger and CROP polls showed the Liberals have come up quite a bit. The Tories face problems if they can't get their numbers up there.

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/f...-different.aspx

Here is the seat call based on the polls:

http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/

That’s an interesting link Dobbin thanks! Polls can be very misleading sometimes and don’t necessarily give a breakdown of how seats would fall. I would find it fascinating if in fact the seats did fall that way in a real election, 118 for the CPC and 117 for the Libs when we take out the speaker of the house that puts the CPC down to 117. Of course in that situation Mr. Harper might choose a speaker elsewhere. Either way the polls in the past few months have only confirmed what we’ve all been fairly certain of for quite some time, we’re headed for another minority government. Whether it’s a CPC lead or Lib lead remains to be seen.

As to the poster that suggested PR I would submit that if this system were implemented we would be forever locked into a minority government rife with shifting alliances and dare I say it, coalitions. For all the faults of our first past the post system, when a majority is in place it guarantees a level of stability that is unheard of in PR systems. We may be in a minority holding pattern for the next election and possibly even the election after that, but reality is it will break and we’ll return to the majority parliaments we all know and love.

capricorn · July 13, 2009

As to the poster that suggested PR I would submit that if this system were implemented we would be forever locked into a minority government rife with shifting alliances and dare I say it, coalitions. For all the faults of our first past the post system, when a majority is in place it guarantees a level of stability that is unheard of in PR systems. We may be in a minority holding pattern for the next election and possibly even the election after that, but reality is it will break and we’ll return to the majority parliaments we all know and love.

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey showed 64 per cent of respondents prefer a majority over a minority government, up from 52 per cent two years ago.
Only 24 per cent said they preferred a minority, as compared to 36 per cent in 2007.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/vot...y-50614947.html

Looks like Canadians are tiring of minority governments.

Dave_ON · July 13, 2009

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/vot...y-50614947.html
Looks like Canadians are tiring of minority governments.

Of that there is no doubt, though be that as it may I'm not certain when the trend will end. The CPC and the Grits have been pretty much neck and neck since Ignatieff took over. Really only the NDP and the Bloc have suffered loss at this point. With the intensifying regionalization and polarization of the electorate who knows how long we'll be stuck in this parliamentary minority rut.

jdobbin · July 13, 2009

Looks like Canadians are tiring of minority governments.

Yes. That polls says they prefer a Liberal majority.

capricorn · July 14, 2009

Liberal or Conservative. Increasingly, they are looking the same to me. So I wouldn't lose any sleep over having Ignatieff at the helm since it appears nothing much would change.

Machjo · July 14, 2009

Actually, if we keep minorities in long enough, they might eventually get sick of the partisanship themselves and start to learn to work together.

Personally, I'm so sick of the partisanship I can only hope to have an independent in my riding come next election. I can't guarantee he'd get my vote, but his independent status will certainly be a plus in my considerations.

ToadBrother · July 14, 2009

Liberal or Conservative. Increasingly, they are looking the same to me. So I wouldn't lose any sleep over having Ignatieff at the helm since it appears nothing much would change.

Increasingly? There hasn't been a noticeable difference since Peter Mackay sold the PCs down the river to unite the Right.

punked · July 14, 2009

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/vot...y-50614947.html
Looks like Canadians are tiring of minority governments.

When a poll ignores there are 3 other parties, NDP, Green, Bloc the Liberals win.........................this poll does not sit in reality. Like it or not push polls telling Canadians there are only two parties wont work becuase they know there are more options then Liberal majority, Liberal minority, Con majority, Con minority. Weak meaningless poll.

Smallc · July 14, 2009

Actually, as far as government outcomes are concerned (barring a coalition) those are the only reasonable options. It's also safe to assume that there are a larger number of people willing to accept a Liberal majority than a Conservative one based on recent history. There is also still a dislike for social conservatism in many parts of this country.

punked · July 14, 2009

Actually, as far as government outcomes are concerned (barring a coalition) those are the only reasonable options. It's also safe to assume that there are a larger number of people willing to accept a Liberal majority than a Conservative one based on recent history. There is also still a dislike for social conservatism in many parts of this country.

Actually, as far as governments are concerned a majority government is not an option. So look at the minority numbers, the Conservatives win that one? So now you are saying the Conservatives are winning becuase majority governments don't happen? See that is your logic.

There are 3 parties left out who spilt the vote, I might prefer a Liberal government over a Conservative one, however no amount of push polling to tell me there are only two parties is going to take my vote from the NDP. That is my point, voters like me are the reason why this poll is meaningless. You can tell me all you want there is only 2 options however when I step in the both there are usually like 8 names to pick from.

Smallc · July 14, 2009

See that is your logic.

No, it's not. There are only 4 options for government in this country. Those four options still exist, no matter how small the chances are right now. The NDP, Bloc, and Greens aren't going to form government. The Liberals or Conservatives will, and whether it will be a majority or minority is up to the voters.

benny · July 14, 2009

No, it's not. There are only 4 options for government in this country. Those four options still exist, no matter how small the chances are right now. The NDP, Bloc, and Greens aren't going to form government. The Liberals or Conservatives will, and whether it will be a majority or minority is up to the voters.

I see the importance of predictions on the weather and the prices, but I fail to see the importance of making predictions about politics.

punked · July 14, 2009

No, it's not. There are only 4 options for government in this country. Those four options still exist, no matter how small the chances are right now. The NDP, Bloc, and Greens aren't going to form government. The Liberals or Conservatives will, and whether it will be a majority or minority is up to the voters.

To say a majority government is possible at this point in time is like saying an NDP government is possible. Sure if everyone else acts like morons it is possible but otherwise it isn't. Like it or not there are 308 in parliament. Meaning that you need 154 seats right? The NDP is going to win 14-20 seats no matter what, the Bloc is going to win 30-40 seats, the Conservatives have 50-60 seats locked, and the Liberals also have 50-60 seats locked. That means there is best case 150 seats are in play from the base, and someone would have to win 67% of remaining seats to have shot. Wont happen, not with the greens stealing 7% of the vote., these seats in the best case go 60% to some party. Like it or not there are two options for the foreseeable future Conservative Minority, Liberal Minority. All the parties have too big of a base.

Smallc · July 14, 2009

Meaning that you need 154 seats right?

155. It's unlikely, but it's possible.

capricorn · July 14, 2009

To say a majority government is possible at this point in time is like saying an NDP government is possible.

If I recall, Paul Martin was leading in the polls in 2004 but the Conservatives won. There are too many variables to rely on polls. And yes, the way the vote is split, it's hard to imagine one of the two main parties winning a majority, regardless that Canadians may desire a majority.

punked · July 14, 2009

155. It's unlikely, but it's possible.

Not today, if the Conservatives vote is split the Liberals can form a majority government, but otherwise they can't becuase Bloc stops them from picking up 10-20 seats needed in Quebec to win the majority. The Bloc stops any party really form picking those last seats they need in Quebec. The NDP also steals but they a little less significant. Unless the Bloc dies or the Conservatives split again the Liberals can't form a majority they burned their bridge with the west too long ago.

The Conservatives can't do it becuase they hate the East a different story all together. No party can right now, and not unless there is some kind of game changer.

Smallc · July 14, 2009

Not today, if the Conservatives vote is split the Liberals can form a majority government, but otherwise they can't becuase Bloc stops them from picking up 10-20 seats needed in Quebec to win the majority.

If the Liberals can ever get back to the numbers thy had just before sponsorship broke (not for a while) they don't nee a divided right. The Conservatives almost got a majority last time. It's a possibility, though less likely than in the past.

benny · July 14, 2009

If the Liberals can ever get back to the numbers thy had just before sponsorship broke (not for a while) they don't nee a divided right. The Conservatives almost got a majority last time. It's a possibility, though less likely than in the past.

It is sad to see you reducing politics to such petty tactical considerations!

punked · July 14, 2009

If the Liberals can ever get back to the numbers thy had just before sponsorship broke (not for a while) they don't nee a divided right. The Conservatives almost got a majority last time. It's a possibility, though less likely than in the past.

The Conservatives got a best game scenario Weak Liberal, Strong Green and NDP numbers, strong economy while the US was failing and still could not do it.

As the numbers before sponsorship broke you have a huge problem there. In those polls the Conservatives were still split with the Alliance there. Like I said unless they are split a Liberal Majority is not possible otherwise.

Edited July 14, 2009 by punked

gc1765 · July 14, 2009

If I recall, Paul Martin was leading in the polls in 2004 but the Conservatives won. There are too many variables to rely on polls. And yes, the way the vote is split, it's hard to imagine one of the two main parties winning a majority, regardless that Canadians may desire a majority.

Do you mean 2006? Because Paul Martin won in 2004.

It's true that the Liberals were ahead of the polls in 2006...that is until the RCMP announced that they were investigating Ralph Goodale.

benny · July 14, 2009

The Conservatives got a best game scenario Weak Liberal, Strong Green and NDP numbers, strong economy while the US was failing and still could not do it.
As the numbers before sponsorship broke you have a huge problem there. In those polls the Conservatives were still split with the Alliance there. Like I said if they are split a Liberal Majority is not possible otherwise.

The Right is less prone to split than the Left because it is obsessed with power to a point where it cannot use it when it finally has captured it.

Smallc · July 14, 2009

As the numbers before sponsorship broke you have a huge problem there. In those polls the Conservatives were still split with the Alliance there. Like I said unless they are split a Liberal Majority is not possible otherwise.

The parties were not split then. The Liberal numbers were in the mid to high 40s.

punked · July 14, 2009

The Right is less prone to split than the Left because it is obsessed with power to a point where it cannot use it when it finally has captured it.

Regardless anyone claiming a majority government is possible with todays political climate and then is going to claim an NDP government is impossible has their blinders on. A majorty government has about as much as a chance as an NDP government both are so unlikely they should be put aside for the time being as real options.

Smallc · July 14, 2009

A majority government is possible, but improbable. An NDP government is possible, but extremely improbable. That's really the difference.

benny · July 14, 2009

Regardless anyone claiming a majority government is possible with todays political climate and then is going to claim an NDP government is impossible has their blinders on. A majorty government has about as much as a chance as an NDP government both are so unlikely they should be put aside for the time being as real options.

In a democracy no one will ever be able to put aside options just like that!