Canadian Political Polls

[punked]

The parties were not split then. The Liberal numbers were in the mid to high 40s.

They were split, and if you claim they weren't you really didn't fallow that election. February is when Sponsorship broke big, March 20, 2004 was when they picked Harper as leader, June is when the election was held.

So what you are really saying is that if the Liberals can pull the same numbers they pulled when the Conservatives didn't exist or didn't have a leader and were a brand new party they can win a majority? That is silly. Unless the right is split the Liberals can not win a majority. The Cons only won 29% that year down from the 36% the Alliance and PC's won in 2000 and still won a 100 sets. Majorities are a thing of the past.

Unless the progressives (and I think that would only include half the Liberals) unite we wont see one until there is some real game changer. The 5 parties have too big of a base. It is simple math.

[punked]

A majority government is possible, but improbable. An NDP government is possible, but extremely improbable. That's really the difference.

I would say they got about the same chance to be quite honest. I don't see how anyone can win the majority, the Conservatives had the best chance we will see for a long time I think. If Iggy can win show he is a Conservatives and still fool Liberals into voting for him in the future he might be able too, but those are some pretty big ifs.

[Smallc]

The media and the pundits don't consider it to be outside of the realm of possibility. It is simply improbable. That doesn't mean it can't happen. Oh, and when sponsorship broke, the party existed, but you're right, it didn't have a leader. Anyway, one of the polling companies has a chart that shows it, but I forget which one.

Edited July 14, 2009 by Smallc

[punked]

The media and the pundits don't consider it to be outside of the realm of possibility. It is simply improbable. That doesn't mean it can't happen. Oh, and when sponsorship broke, the party existed, but you're right, it didn't have a leader. Anyway, one of the polling companies has a chart that shows it, but I forget which one.

The media and the pundits don't really believe it can happen seriously look at the numbers. The Bloc takes up too much room in Quebec. Quebec use to be where elections lived or died now it is an after thought a maybe we can win 30 seats in Quebec type of thing.

[benny]

They were split, and if you claim they weren't you really didn't fallow that election. February is when Sponsorship broke big, March 20, 2004 was when they picked Harper as leader, June is when the election was held.

So what you are really saying is that if the Liberals can pull the same numbers they pulled when the Conservatives didn't exist or didn't have a leader and were a brand new party they can win a majority? That is silly. Unless the right is split the Liberals can not win a majority. The Cons only won 29% that year down from the 36% the Alliance and PC's won in 2000 and still won a 100 sets. Majorities are a thing of the past.

Unless the progressives (and I think that would only include half the Liberals) unite we wont see one until there is some real game changer. The 5 parties have too big of a base. It is simple math.

A political base is such a bizarre thing that may want to stay blind to the simple math.

[punked]

A political base is such a bizarre thing that may want to stay blind to the simple math.

Yep but they exist non the same, it takes parties 30-40 years to build one but when a party has one it is very hard to pull them away.

[benny]

Yep but they exist non the same, it takes parties 30-40 years to build one but when a party has one it is very hard to pull them away.

I said a base was bizarre because it can be passive since its inception and all of a sudden, out from nowhere creates a political schism.

[punked]

I said a base was bizarre because it can be passive since its inception and all of a sudden, out from nowhere creates a political schism.

Only if assume a majority government is needed for us to get things done. I think if people are willing to work together and make real deals the government can work.

[benny]

Only if assume a majority government is needed for us to get things done.

No need to assume a majority government to be able to say that a base is bizarre by its sudden outbursts.

Edited July 14, 2009 by benny

[normanchateau]

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/vot...y-50614947.html

Looks like Canadians are tiring of minority governments.

What that same poll also indicates is that 44% of Canadians would prefer a Liberal government and 33% would prefer a Conservative government.

[Keepitsimple]

What that same poll also indicates is that 44% of Canadians would prefer a Liberal government and 33% would prefer a Conservative government.

Actually, that's a telling fact and doesn't SEEM to make sense in terms of the ongoing neck and neck poll numbers. But given ONLY those choices (liberals or Conservatives), Far Left voters from the Bloc and NDP weould rather hold their noses and pick the left-leaning Liberals than EVER vote for a Center/Right Conservative party. In reality though, no majority is in sight because those voters will obviously continue to vote for their own parties.

It will be interesting though to see exactly what impact Mr. Ignatieff will have on the Liberals over time. Having such an affinity for America and being weaned on American politics, Mr. Ignatieff's instincts can't help but be more hawkish and to the right of Stephen Harper - that's the reality of American politics.

[Molly]

Having such an affinity for America and being weaned on American politics, Mr. Ignatieff's instincts can't help but be more hawkish and to the right of Stephen Harper - that's the reality of American politics.

Oh, my.

[normanchateau]

But given ONLY those choices (liberals or Conservatives), Far Left voters from the Bloc and NDP weould rather hold their noses and pick the left-leaning Liberals than EVER vote for a Center/Right Conservative party.

Ignatieff left-leaning?

I doubt that far left voters would go for Ignatieff. It will be the more moderate NDP and BQ voters who might strategically vote for the centrist Liberals. It's hard to imagine any middle-of-the-road or left-leaning voter EVER supporting a social conservative and apocalyptic evangelical type like Harper no matter how many times he tries to pretend that he isn't.

http://communities.canada.com/vancouversun...x?postid=250271

[punked]

Ignatieff left-leaning?

I doubt that far left voters would go for Ignatieff.

That is why this poll is useless. It is a push poll to try to put the idea in people's heads that their is only two parties.

[Smallc]

That's not the idea of the poll at all, because it has nothing to do with voting preference. It's asking who thy would like to se form the next government (there are only two choices), and what type of government thy would like it to be. That's all. It's not asking them about how they would vote.

[punked]

That's not the idea of the poll at all, because it has nothing to do with voting preference. It's asking who thy would like to se form the next government (there are only two choices), and what type of government thy would like it to be. That's all. It's not asking them about how they would vote.

See as I pointed out why ask about majority government because that isn't an option, it is push poll.

[normanchateau]

That's not the idea of the poll at all, because it has nothing to do with voting preference. It's asking who thy would like to se form the next government (there are only two choices), and what type of government thy would like it to be. That's all. It's not asking them about how they would vote.

That's it exactly.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

That's not the idea of the poll at all, because it has nothing to do with voting preference. It's asking who thy would like to se form the next government (there are only two choices), and what type of government thy would like it to be. That's all. It's not asking them about how they would vote.

Bogus poll! Two choices?

I will suggest that this poll was absolutely useless because it was based on a FALSE premise. There ARE more than two available choices.

[Smallc]

There are only two choices. The Bloc isn't going to form government any time soon.

[punked]

Bogus poll! Two choices?

I will suggest that this poll was absolutely useless because it was based on a FALSE premise. There ARE more than two available choices.

See the problem is people will say but their really isn't, ignoring the fact they asked about majority governments which are as about as possible as a NDP government.

In the end it is a push poll to influence people into thinking their is only two options. Canadians are smarter then that.

Edited July 14, 2009 by punked

[Jerry J. Fortin]

There are only two choices. The Bloc isn't going to form government any time soon.

So you eliminate their chosen vote? Anyone that choses to vote NDP, loose that vote too. Green Party, turf it, see there are only two choices after all.

REAL and useful poll............not.

[madmax]

So you eliminate their chosen vote? Anyone that choses to vote NDP, loose that vote too. Green Party, turf it, see there are only two choices after all.

REAL and useful poll............not.

I agree that this is a push poll. Of no use to anyone but spin doctors and those who want to form a mindset that there be only 2 choices next election.

Unfortuneately, while voter turnout is continuing to decline, not that many people are ready to sit home, or limit themselves to two mediocre choices.

[benny]

I agree that this is a push poll. Of no use to anyone but spin doctors and those who want to form a mindset that there be only 2 choices next election.

Unfortuneately, while voter turnout is continuing to decline, not that many people are ready to sit home, or limit themselves to two mediocre choices.

Pent-up frustrations are unpredictable.

[Smallc]

I really think some of you are misunderstanding this. It has nothing to do with voting intention or choice.

[benny]

I really think some of you are misunderstanding this. It has nothing to do with voting intention or choice.

What has nothing to do with voting intention or choice?