Canadian Political Polls

[BC_chick]

Imagine you're six years old and your one of 12 siblings (your mother took fertility drugs and adopted a couple of her cousins kids), she is supposed to love you all the same. When she comes home from shopping she always has a bag of jelly beans and gives all the kids 10 beans.

Most of the kids hold out their hands take the beans and put them in their pockets and eat them one at a time.

A few of the kids count them to make sure they got their fair share, some kids only want red beans, some only green.

One says he's a little small so he should get more so he can grow big. Other kids accuse their siblings of stealing their beans and before long everyone is crying and shouting and accusing your mother of playing favorites.

Essentially, that is the Canadian system.

I've often thought of the same "family' analogy in my view of Canada. Except that in my analogy most of the kids know how to get along, whereas two of them have serious developmental issues and need constant attention. If they ever see the other one (or anyone of the other kids for that matter) getting any attention from mom they throw temper-tantrums, stomp their feet, and bawl until mom finally gives in. The second oldest is especially jealous of mom's first-born son, and the baby of the household... well, he's just hates the whole family.

I think mom really needs to practice some tough-love, give them a time out, and remind them that this is what being a part of a family is all about.

Edited December 5, 2008 by BC_chick

[Vancouver King]

All we need is an election.

According to today's polls all the CPC does need is an election. However, giving his own party a 6 week reprieve also affords the Libs an oppourtunity to counter with an emergency leadership change. That should tighten up the polls.

[Slim MacSquinty]

I've often thought of the same "family' analogy in my view of Canada. Except that in my analogy most of the kids know how to get along, whereas two of them have serious developmental issues and need constant attention. If they ever see the other one (or anyone of the other kids for that matter) getting any attention from mom they throw temper-tantrums, stomp their feet, and bawl until mom finally gives in.

I think mom really needs to practice some tough-love, give them a time out, and remind them that this is what being a part of a family is all about.

The problem is when the family is so very dysfuntional even the sane appear suspect.

[blueblood]

Watch the tory "air force" or for the left "luftwaffe" take to the airwaves and unleash an air war of epic proportions. Dobbin is right, Harper will get his election come hell or high water. The coalition was good as a threat, but Harper turned the tables again!!!

Easy there big fella, thought the battle has been won the war continues. If Harper can't make it look like he's attempting to cooperate and pull this government back together the egg may very well be on his face.

The war's just begun. There are going to be attack ads upon attack ads in the next two months. Harper smells blood and has the polls and momentum to back it up. He can hammer the waves with attack ads and speeches. An election campaign would smash the opposition. The 2 opposition parties have said they oppose the government no matter what, plus a large amount of Liberals say the same thing. A majority is so close Harper can taste it. Sad thing is, when Harper gets it, the subsequent election, he is toast.

[Smallc]

I think mom really needs to practice some tough-love, give them a time out, and remind them that this is what being a part of a family is all about.

That's a very good assessment. Too funny.

[capricorn]

It's also a confirmation of Dion's weak leadership.

Without a doubt. The problem is this weakness is being projected onto the Liberal Party in the eyes of the public. I truly can't understand why the Liberal Party is allowing this charade to continue.

Harper turned the initial 3-day focus off the brinkmanship of the original economic update, went on the offensive by attacking the coalition's 'scary' Bloc involvement and sold Canadians on the idea the proposed change in govt was equal to a coup de tat.

Correct. In the meantime, mainstream Canadians go on with their lives and other things occupy their minds, i.e. the holidays. Things have developed so fast, I'm happy to see all the politicians leave Ottawa and give us a well deserved breather.

Dion was unable to counter this PR batlle, unable to even highlight some of the misinformation. His cause has now lost the initiative, his nemesis, furiously backpeddaling only a couple of days ago, is again in control of events.

Actually, proroguing Parliament could work in favour of the Liberal Party. They should just stop the coalition in its tracks and regroup, hopefully without Dion as leader. If not, momentum with the public will continue to favour the Conservatives.

[blueblood]

According to today's polls all the CPC does need is an election. However, giving his own party a 6 week reprieve also affords the Libs an oppourtunity to counter with an emergency leadership change. That should tighten up the polls.

That party has been painted with this coalition. The tories have enough popularity to guarantee a minority gov't. With the amount of disgust at recent events, all harper has to say is "this is what happens with minority gov'ts" If I were a Liberal, I'd be worried.

[Slim MacSquinty]

The war's just begun. There are going to be attack ads upon attack ads in the next two months. Harper smells blood and has the polls and momentum to back it up. He can hammer the waves with attack ads and speeches. An election campaign would smash the opposition. The 2 opposition parties have said they oppose the government no matter what, plus a large amount of Liberals say the same thing. A majority is so close Harper can taste it. Sad thing is, when Harper gets it, the subsequent election, he is toast.

Now that Harper has the momentum, the Liberals know two things for sure, they would lose an election right now and that they can't afford an election right now. Harper has to resist the temptation to deal the final death blow. His surge in the polls may well be because people now see him as more human since he's been knocked down a peg. He should take this momentum and prove himself the statesman and rise above it, show the olive branch and get on with government, he can keep the stick behind his back to make the others pay for their misadventures if he chooses to call an election at any time once all this has blown over and some time has passed.

[blueblood]

The war's just begun. There are going to be attack ads upon attack ads in the next two months. Harper smells blood and has the polls and momentum to back it up. He can hammer the waves with attack ads and speeches. An election campaign would smash the opposition. The 2 opposition parties have said they oppose the government no matter what, plus a large amount of Liberals say the same thing. A majority is so close Harper can taste it. Sad thing is, when Harper gets it, the subsequent election, he is toast.

Now that Harper has the momentum, the Liberals know two things for sure, they would lose an election right now and that they can't afford an election right now. Harper has to resist the temptation to deal the final death blow. His surge in the polls may well be because people now see him as more human since he's been knocked down a peg. He should take this momentum and prove himself the statesman and rise above it, show the olive branch and get on with government, he can keep the stick behind his back to make the others pay for their misadventures if he chooses to call an election at any time once all this has blown over and some time has passed.

he has his issue. This is like the 1960's. The next election will result in a majority. The ads have been made. There's no stopping this freight train. Those other two parties want harper gone. He finally has the electorate inspired to go to the polls. This is almost Obama-like, except much shadier. He can go to the people and say the parties aren't going to support me anyways, lets let the people decide. Harper will not win a vote of confidence in the house, and he's laughing. Only if some Liberals abstain, can the left fight another day.

[Slim MacSquinty]

Harper will not win a vote of confidence in the house, and he's laughing. Only if some Liberals abstain, can the left fight another day.

I'm quite sure there will be about 20 Liberals who don't make the vote on the budget, and they'll find plenty of ways of supporting the government without supporting the government to keep from having to either entertain this silly coalition thing or a federal election in the near future. All the more reason to use your inside voice and play nice. Harper must go back to being the sweatervest guy or risk loosing his lead in the polls.

[ToadBrother]

I done knowed it the whole time!!! Phase 2 is now underway. All we need is an election. If I were the left, I'd be giving confidence until my funds and leader and policy are in place. Layton is probably toast as NDP leader. Pat Martin is licking his chops, I did not see this normally rambunctious MP make any public statements...

Watch the tory "air force" or for the left "luftwaffe" take to the airwaves and unleash an air war of epic proportions. Dobbin is right, Harper will get his election come hell or high water. The coalition was good as a threat, but Harper turned the tables again!!!

This is still Harper's to lose. If the Coalition can keep it together and find someone besides Dion or Layton to run it, then they may very well hold it together (I wouldn't hold my breath).

But I think ticker-tape parades for Harper are premature as well. Yes, he appears to have won this battle, but he is the one who basically pulled the pin on the grenade, and then had to run like hell to the Governor General to keep him from certain defeat in the House. I still think that before this is through, the Conservatives are going to be asking him some very hard questions, and his long-term survival is still a question mark. The Conservatives are going to do their best to blast the coalition to bits, but they're not going to want to go down that road again, it's certain that the GG isn't going to let them hide behind a suspension of parliament if Harper decides to keep trying to zap the Opposition.

And I think the polls can be deceiving. Yes, most Canadians think the coalition was wrongheaded and the Conservatives are on the right course, but I guarantee you if Harper is permitted to keep goading the Opposition and keep Parliament lurching from crisis to crisis, that support will evaporate very quickly.

And I don't buy it that he wants an election. He could have got one easily enough by going into the House and Monday and going down in defeat. Heck, he wouldn't even have to wait that long. If he had asked the GG to dissolve Parliament, not only would he have completely defused the constitutional crisis, but according to the polls, he might have got his majority. Except I don't think anyone really believes that. I simply don't think the Conservatives can count on those numbers sticking around any length of time, and winning yet another minority government with no fundamental change would be a disaster for everyone.

[Slim MacSquinty]

Toad:

By god man you're starting to make sense!

[blueblood]

This is still Harper's to lose. If the Coalition can keep it together and find someone besides Dion or Layton to run it, then they may very well hold it together (I wouldn't hold my breath).

But I think ticker-tape parades for Harper are premature as well. Yes, he appears to have won this battle, but he is the one who basically pulled the pin on the grenade, and then had to run like hell to the Governor General to keep him from certain defeat in the House. I still think that before this is through, the Conservatives are going to be asking him some very hard questions, and his long-term survival is still a question mark. The Conservatives are going to do their best to blast the coalition to bits, but they're not going to want to go down that road again, it's certain that the GG isn't going to let them hide behind a suspension of parliament if Harper decides to keep trying to zap the Opposition.

And I think the polls can be deceiving. Yes, most Canadians think the coalition was wrongheaded and the Conservatives are on the right course, but I guarantee you if Harper is permitted to keep goading the Opposition and keep Parliament lurching from crisis to crisis, that support will evaporate very quickly.

And I don't buy it that he wants an election. He could have got one easily enough by going into the House and Monday and going down in defeat. Heck, he wouldn't even have to wait that long. If he had asked the GG to dissolve Parliament, not only would he have completely defused the constitutional crisis, but according to the polls, he might have got his majority. Except I don't think anyone really believes that. I simply don't think the Conservatives can count on those numbers sticking around any length of time, and winning yet another minority government with no fundamental change would be a disaster for everyone.

If you would look at my posts in other threads over the course of this mess, I was quite confident parliament would be prorogued. It turned out I was correct. I predicted attack ads would be produced, I was correct. Everyone is dancing to Harper's music. The GG will grant an election when the opposition votes no confidence. Harper has made the opposition look like fools. He has his issue in the next election.

Harper wants to release his budget so he has more ammunition to shell the opposition with. Harper will take every step he can to ensure he gets his majority and smash the opposition. next election harper will look like he has a solid plan for the economy, and looks like a champion for democracy and Canada. That's going to be a disaster to run against, especially with how heavy the coalition is being defended by opposition MPs.

I'll say it again, I'm enjoying watching this train wreck and tory brass is as well.

[August1991]

CPC supporters just can beleive or understand that not every Canadian is in love with Steven Harper. The cult of personality built around Harper is just plain scary.

Between Obama's cult of personality and Harper's cult of personality, quite frankly, which in your mind is more scary?

The scientific method is based on being an intelligent skeptic. Asking irrelevant questions is easy. Asking no questions is stupid. Asking intelligent questions is hard.

Harper has had no free pass, and the past week is perfect proof. I'm fearful of the free pass Obama has received.

[kimmy]

And I think the polls can be deceiving. Yes, most Canadians think the coalition was wrongheaded and the Conservatives are on the right course, but I guarantee you if Harper is permitted to keep goading the Opposition and keep Parliament lurching from crisis to crisis, that support will evaporate very quickly.

I think this is the essence of it.

Will he learn anything from this fiasco? Or will today's polls give him the mistaken idea that Canadians will back him on some kind of vendetta?

I think the essential message from today's polls is that Canadians want the politicians to STFU and get to work. The politician that ultimately comes away from this looking the best will be the one whose actions are most in keeping with that message.

-k

[blueblood]

Harper will not win a vote of confidence in the house, and he's laughing. Only if some Liberals abstain, can the left fight another day.

I'm quite sure there will be about 20 Liberals who don't make the vote on the budget, and they'll find plenty of ways of supporting the government without supporting the government to keep from having to either entertain this silly coalition thing or a federal election in the near future. All the more reason to use your inside voice and play nice. Harper must go back to being the sweatervest guy or risk loosing his lead in the polls.

That is if the Liberals find a way out of the hole they dug themselves in. This is the brilliance of Harper's plan, any situation comes up, he finds a way out and comes out of it in good shape. Harper wants the left to vote non-confidence. If not, no big deal, and the sweatervest strategy comes out and Harper tries to find an election elsewhere. Harper will goad the opposition coalition into election with advertising and a poison pill in the budget. The silent majority dragon has been awakened, Harper will not throw this opportunity away.

[blueblood]

I think this is the essence of it.

Will he learn anything from this fiasco? Or will today's polls give him the mistaken idea that Canadians will back him on some kind of vendetta?

I think the essential message from today's polls is that Canadians want the politicians to STFU and get to work. The politician that ultimately comes away from this looking the best will be the one whose actions are most in keeping with that message.

-k

or the one who lays the best trap.

[ToadBrother]

That is if the Liberals find a way out of the hole they dug themselves in. This is the brilliance of Harper's plan, any situation comes up, he finds a way out and comes out of it in good shape. Harper wants the left to vote non-confidence. If not, no big deal, and the sweatervest strategy comes out and Harper tries to find an election elsewhere. Harper will goad the opposition coalition into election with advertising and a poison pill in the budget. The silent majority dragon has been awakened, Harper will not throw this opportunity away.

If he wanted them to vote no confidence, then he would have let them. What you're saying is garbage. He ran as fast as he could to the GG to save his skin. He no more wanted to face the voters than this coalition did.

As it is, the January budget is going to be full of precisely what the opposition wanted anyways. The whole thing was pointless, put us in an unnecessary crisis and show each and everyone of them as anti-democratic operators.

[blueblood]

If he wanted them to vote no confidence, then he would have let them. What you're saying is garbage. He ran as fast as he could to the GG to save his skin. He no more wanted to face the voters than this coalition did.

As it is, the January budget is going to be full of precisely what the opposition wanted anyways. The whole thing was pointless, put us in an unnecessary crisis and show each and everyone of them as anti-democratic operators.

How is it garbage, when he releases his budget it's lights out for the coalition. Harper was not worried in the least going to the GG. Harper wants an election, he has momentum, and two issues to smash the left wing of this country with. It's hard to be an anti-democratic operator when you want an election. If I were a Liberal MP, I'd take off on a world wide vacation after Christmas and not return until the middle of Feb. The release of the budget is the lynch pin of Harper's plan and the final nail in the left's coffin. The silent majority has been awakened and it is not happy with this coalition. Harper will goad the opposition into an election and look good doing it.

[ToadBrother]

How is it garbage, when he releases his budget it's lights out for the coalition. Harper was not worried in the least going to the GG. Harper wants an election, he has momentum, and two issues to smash the left wing of this country with. It's hard to be an anti-democratic operator when you want an election. If I were a Liberal MP, I'd take off on a world wide vacation after Christmas and not return until the middle of Feb. The release of the budget is the lynch pin of Harper's plan and the final nail in the left's coffin. The silent majority has been awakened and it is not happy with this coalition. Harper will goad the opposition into an election and look good doing it.

Actions speak louder than words. He was absolutely terrified of being ousted now. If he was up for an election, he would have asked for it. As to the budget, it will, naturally, be everything the opposition wanted. Harper is looking more and more like Chretien all the time; a tyrant who uses a cowardly caucus like a cudgel and then steals his bloodied opponents ideas.

The GG did the right thing, but Harper is still a monster.

Edited December 5, 2008 by ToadBrother

[blueblood]

Actions speak louder than words. He was absolutely terrified of being ousted now. If he was up for an election, he would have asked for it. As to the budget, it will, naturally, be everything the opposition wanted. Harper is looking more and more like Chretien all the time; a tyrant who uses a cowardly caucus like a cudgel and then steals his bloodied opponents ideas.

The GG did the right thing, but Harper is still a monster.

He might have been terrified, but tory brass most definetely was not. Party Leaders are a dime a dozen, they would groom another one just like they did with Harper. It is smarter for Harper to wait for the budget to go to an election. Put yourself in Harper's shoes. He has the opposition pork barrelled, has momentum, and has began his public relations barrage. He will again humiliate the opposition with this budget, they aren't voting for it anyway.

His tactics are ruthless, yet effective.

[ToadBrother]

He might have been terrified, but tory brass most definetely was not. Party Leaders are a dime a dozen, they would groom another one just like they did with Harper. It is smarter for Harper to wait for the budget to go to an election. Put yourself in Harper's shoes. He has the opposition pork barrelled, has momentum, and has began his public relations barrage. He will again humiliate the opposition with this budget, they aren't voting for it anyway.

His tactics are ruthless, yet effective.

So is hiring hitmen to kill your opponents. Effective should not be not the sole category for judgement of tactics. He showed absolute contempt for Parliament. I support the GG, because the alternative was an equally contemptible but probably much more unstable coalition.

I find Harper a repugnant creature, and won't vote Tory again until he is out. Of course, my problem is I find Layton and Dion contemptible too, so I guess I'm stuck voting for an independent if there's an election next spring.

[blueblood]

So is hiring hitmen to kill your opponents. Effective should not be not the sole category for judgement of tactics. He showed absolute contempt for Parliament. I support the GG, because the alternative was an equally contemptible but probably much more unstable coalition.

I find Harper a repugnant creature, and won't vote Tory again until he is out. Of course, my problem is I find Layton and Dion contemptible too, so I guess I'm stuck voting for an independent if there's an election next spring.

Since your a Harper hater, you'll have to wait four years when Tory Brass cans Harper on their quest for a second majority. Harper will be canned about 2-3 yrs. in I think so the next leader can have distance from him and go for another majority. This fiasco has damaged both parties in the extreme long term. In the future, the Liberals will have revamped and the tories will need a fresh face to deal with this new threat.

[Alta4ever]

If he wanted them to vote no confidence, then he would have let them. What you're saying is garbage. He ran as fast as he could to the GG to save his skin. He no more wanted to face the voters than this coalition did.

As it is, the January budget is going to be full of precisely what the opposition wanted anyways. The whole thing was pointless, put us in an unnecessary crisis and show each and everyone of them as anti-democratic operators.

Why is this garbage Harper now has how many days before the spending on attack ads are capped by elections rules?

[ToadBrother]

Why is this garbage Harper now has how many days before the spending on attack ads are capped by elections rules?

Every attempt to make Harper sound clever makes me think him simply another Jean Chretien, a self-serving democracy-despising creature who deserves nothing but contempt.

Conservatives bring themselves to the gutter with this piece of filth, who was just as willing to hop into the sack with Duceppe as Layton and Dion.

Being a skilled Machiavellian operator may get from me some admiration for the skill, but at the end of the day, democracy suffers under such tyrants.