Canadian Political Polls

CrazeeEddie · October 11, 2008

And this is before the election day left-wing shift to the Liberals...

Really makes you wonder what will actually happen come election day....

BC_chick · October 11, 2008

You don't see western separation parties taking over the agenda of the entire country. Having a dissenting opinion is one thing. Even the protest vote for the Bloc the first couple of times was fine, but eventually you need to grow up.
The west had their protest vote too with Reform, but they very quickly realized that would not amount to anything more. Because they were intelligent, they realized that being part of the process was better than being just outside of it and/or getting in the way of it. Bloc supporters need to grow up.

I am a federalist who prefers to see Canada remain together from BC to Newfoundland, but let's face it, Quebec has more of a right to separate than Alberta.

Quebec joined the confederation out of will. At the time Quebec faced three possibilities - going on their own, annexing with the US, or joining the confederation. Even Cartier said that it's not an ideal decision, but that it's merely the least undesirable of the options. They signed on as a partner, out of choice.

Alberta, OTOH, was bought as a piece of Rupert's Land, and later divided into a province.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but you don't have the same contractual rights as Quebec when it comes separation. Canada "owns" you. :lol:

Bryan · October 11, 2008

Saturday's Harris/Decima shows CPC support widening:

The latest Canadian Press Harris-Decima poll put the Conservatives at 35 per cent, 10 points clear of Stephane Dion's Liberals - a gap that has more than doubled in the past four days.

Conservative 35%

Liberal 25%

NDP 18%

Green Party 11%

BQ 9%.

Gaining Ground in Ontario as well:

Conservative 35%

Liberal 32%

NDP 22%

Green Party 11%

Data (pdf):

http://www.harrisdecima.com/en/downloads/p...ses/101108E.pdf

Looks Like Nik Nanos is the only one who thinks the Liberals are on the come back right now. Either something is really off with his numbers, or NOBODY knows what their doing when it comes to polling. Actually, from the polls I have done this year (four of them so far), I tend to think the latter is indeed the case.

kengs333 · October 11, 2008

Saturday's Harris/Decima shows CPC support widening:
Conservative 35%

Liberal 25%

NDP 18%

Green Party 11%

BQ 9%.

Gaining Ground in Ontario as well:

Conservative 35%

Liberal 32%

NDP 22%

Green Party 11%

Data (pdf):

http://www.harrisdecima.com/en/downloads/p...ses/101108E.pdf

Looks Like Nik Nanos is the only one who thinks the Liberals are on the come back right now. Either something is really off with his numbers, or NOBODY knows what their doing when it comes to polling. Actually, from the polls I have done this year (four of them so far), I tend to think the latter is indeed the case.

Take the Green Party score and halve it; add one half to the Liberals

Take 2% points from the NDP; add to the Liberals.

The Cons are going to get very few seats in the Maritimes and maybe one in Quebec. They may do well in rural Ontario, but they will lose the urban areas.

Vancouver King · October 11, 2008

Take the Green Party score and halve it; add one half to the Liberals
Take 2% points from the NDP; add to the Liberals.

The Cons are going to get very few seats in the Mari times and maybe one in Quebec. They may do well in rural Ontario, but they will lose the urban areas.

As Tuesday night's election sweeps through time zones and borders, it is a reasonable estimate Conservative ridings won and leading will be down by 8 seats as the count hits the Ontario border.

Wrapped up in the Tory numbers is the 'Alberta bias', where the party will expend a huge portion of it's support to win only 10% of the nation's seats.

Can Liberal friendly Ontario grant Harper sufficient extra seats to offset losses to the East and buffer now-expected losses in B.C.? We shall see.

Jerry J. Fortin · October 11, 2008

We will know what happens on Tuesday. Before that is mere speculation. Most folks expect a minority Conservative government, I however believe that the Liberals and New Democrats will form an alliance of sorts to prevent that from happening if they have sufficient seats to accomplish the task.

jdobbin · October 11, 2008

Looks Like Nik Nanos is the only one who thinks the Liberals are on the come back right now. Either something is really off with his numbers, or NOBODY knows what their doing when it comes to polling. Actually, from the polls I have done this year (four of them so far), I tend to think the latter is indeed the case.

I'm starting to think holding the Tories to a minority might be slipping in way in the last days.

It is going to be close. If Harper had no blown it completely in Quebec, I think he would be looking at a majority no question.

The Liberals probably have recovered enough but the issue of who is Official Opposition remains a question. For the sake of the nation, I hope it is not the Bloc.

eyeball · October 11, 2008

I'm starting to think holding the Tories to a minority might be slipping in way in the last days.
It is going to be close. If Harper had no blown it completely in Quebec, I think he would be looking at a majority no question.

The Liberals probably have recovered enough but the issue of who is Official Opposition remains a question. For the sake of the nation, I hope it is not the Bloc.

I don't know, having the Bloc for Official Opposition could be the best thing that happens if it highlights just how ridiculous and poorly served Canadians are by our FPTP system.

jdobbin · October 11, 2008

I don't know, having the Bloc for Official Opposition could be the best thing that happens if it highlights just how ridiculous and poorly served Canadians are by our FPTP system.

The changes you want are only going to come when we start to see it at the provincial level, I think. Ask the NDP in Manitoba why it is not being done.

Vancouver King · October 11, 2008

I don't know, having the Bloc for Official Opposition could be the best thing that happens if it highlights just how ridiculous and poorly served Canadians are by our FPTP system.

Good point. Even a partial PR would force parties into formal coalitions lessening the Blocs ability to obstruct. Also coalitions are a gain for working people who have been left off agendas by successive Liberal and Conservative govts whose priorities are always geared toward big business, the rich and govt cronies.

Edited October 12, 2008 by Vancouver King

jdobbin · October 11, 2008

Results of the Segma poll:

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/081011/...politics_canada

A Segma poll for La Presse said the Conservatives had 34.6 percent public support, well ahead of the Liberals at 23 percent. The New Democrats had 20.5 percent.
Segma president Raynald Harvey said the Conservatives had bounced back from lows late last week after two televised leaders' debates, where Harper was pummeled by his rivals and had little chance to shine.

"The Conservatives seem to have stopped their hemorrhage ... they have lost some feathers. But the Liberals are not in a good position to take advantage of this," he said.

Jobu · October 12, 2008

You can argue with success all you want using your hopeful theories. Until another pollster proves it, I will base my opinions on proven winners - not biased losers.

With all due respect, Nanos' bias to the LPC is rather evident.

Jobu · October 12, 2008

Ummmm... the Conservative Party basically is a regional party representing in the Prairies.
Well, they just changed their name a couple of times and eliminated their conservative rivals.

And yet the CPC is likely to have seats in every region, including the North (Nunavut), after this election, with the LPC holding less than 5 seats west of Ontario.

Who's more regional again?

Jobu · October 12, 2008

I'm starting to think holding the Tories to a minority might be slipping in way in the last days.
It is going to be close. If Harper had no blown it completely in Quebec, I think he would be looking at a majority no question.

The Liberals probably have recovered enough but the issue of who is Official Opposition remains a question. For the sake of the nation, I hope it is not the Bloc.

Here here. Someone needs to put the Blocl out of their misery. I don't care who it is.

nothinarian · October 12, 2008

With all due respect, Nanos' bias to the LPC is rather evident.

Nanos called it bang on in 2006

Was that biased?

PoliticalCitizen · October 12, 2008

I don't know, having the Bloc for Official Opposition could be the best thing that happens if it highlights just how ridiculous and poorly served Canadians are by our FPTP system.

I totally agree with you.

PoliticalCitizen · October 12, 2008

And yet the CPC is likely to have seats in every region, including the North (Nunavut), after this election, with the LPC holding less than 5 seats west of Ontario.
Who's more regional again?

Believe it or not, the most national (and international) party are the Greens.

Their policies do not favor one region over the others. They do not cater to poorer or richer. Just to the ones who loves their land.

capricorn · October 12, 2008

Here here. Someone needs to put the Blocl out of their misery. I don't care who it is.

Never underestimate the fickleness of Quebec voters. I wouldn't be surprised if the Conservatives do better in Quebec than anticipated. Because of their Mediterranean temperament, French-Canadians get pissed off easy but in a crunch cooler heads and sanity prevail. (I am French-Canadian, so I know)

Jobu · October 12, 2008

Nanos called it bang on in 2006
Was that biased?

No, the way he presents his data, however, is completely biased. Just tune in to CPAC and see for yourself.

Jobu · October 12, 2008

Never underestimate the fickleness of Quebec voters. I wouldn't be surprised if the Conservatives do better in Quebec than anticipated. Because of their Mediterranean temperament, French-Canadians get pissed off easy but in a crunch cooler heads and sanity prevail. (I am French-Canadian, so I know)

I agree. The CPC did much better in 2006 than expected and I think it will happen again. If Quebecers are smart, they will elect MPs who can actually advance their interests.

nothinarian · October 12, 2008

No, the way he presents his data, however, is completely biased. Just tune in to CPAC and see for yourself.

All we can go by is strict objectivity of numbers and based on historical performance argument would be that all others are biased and he is the only unbiased source

In reality they all seem to haver biases - i.e Donolo of Strategic is former liberal advisor as is Bricker of Ipsos fame on the tory side

All we can go by is their numbers and Nanos comes across as the lesser of all evils on that front

Jobu · October 12, 2008

All we can go by is strict objectivity of numbers and based on historical performance argument would be that all others are biased and he is the only unbiased source
In reality they all seem to haver biases - i.e Donolo of Strategic is former liberal advisor as is Bricker of Ipsos fame on the tory side

All we can go by is their numbers and Nanos comes across as the lesser of all evils on that front

I agree. He was the best in 08, and 06 too I think.

Which is why I suggested he may be "Zogby'd" this tim around, and I gave my reasons.

We'll see in the end!

Vancouver King · October 12, 2008

Conservative support down 12% in Ontario Strategic Counsel poll taken Oct. 10th

National Standings

Cons 35% (down 4)

Libs 28 (up 4)

NDP 19

Grn 9

Bloc 9

Second poll conducted in last 2 days showing trend away from Tories. Hmmm.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...081011?s_name=e

Jobu · October 12, 2008

Conservative support down 12% in Ontario Strategic Counsel poll taken Oct. 10th
National Standings

Cons 35% (down 4)

Libs 28 (up 4)

NDP 19

Grn 9

Bloc 9

Second poll conducted in last 2 days showing trend away from Tories. Hmmm.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...081011?s_name=e

The down 4 and up 4 is from SC's poll from late September. It doesn't indicate any recent trend.