Canadian Political Polls

[Smallc]

this chicken is plucked and counted. Tory popularity is in free fall and Dion is up to the task of bringing this puppy home.

I'm as hopeful as you, but I don't want to jinx it. Over the campaign, Stephane Dion has become far more appealing to me. I can now say that I will vote Liberal, not that it matters in my riding.

[Vancouver King]

I'm as hopeful as you, but I don't want to jinx it. Over the campaign, Stephane Dion has become far more appealing to me. I can now say that I will vote Liberal, not that it matters in my riding.

Several things will happen in about an hour:

- Overnight Nanos figures will confirm the Tory slide.

- the fat lady will bellow her melody.

- paper shredders will be tested on parliament hill.

[Shakeyhands]

I'm as hopeful as you, but I don't want to jinx it. Over the campaign, Stephane Dion has become far more appealing to me. I can now say that I will vote Liberal, not that it matters in my riding.

Check this site out.. http://www.voteforenvironment.ca/

Put your postal code in and see who you should vote for...

[noahbody]

I'm as hopeful as you, but I don't want to jinx it. Over the campaign, Stephane Dion has become far more appealing to me. I can now say that I will vote Liberal, not that it matters in my riding.

You're hopeful for the greenshift? Why on earth would anyone vote for that? What exactly do you believe it will achieve other than remaking our tax system, which isn't broken in the first place? How much more will it cost to heat your home? Do you think energy companies will not pass costs onto the consumer and/or use it as an excuse to lay people off? How will it affect your property taxes?

My favourite Dion moment this campaign so far was his "Do not trust this man!" rant during the debate. He said it after Harper confronted Dion on the idea that increased costs would be offset dollar for dollar by tax cuts, when the plan itself states otherwise. Who was telling the truth and who was trying to hide it?

If you don't understand the spin, revenue neutral means $40 billion will be taken in, $16 billion will go towards tax cuts and the rest to government programs. Is it cost neutral? Add the $40 billion of tax increases will be passed onto consumers by energy companies and the answer is definitely "no."

So at the end of the day, most of us will have less money in our pockets, cost uncertainty and no certainty that C02 emissions will decrease at all. Voting for Dion is one thing. Voting for Dion and the greenshift is crazy.

[Smallc]

You're hopeful for the greenshift?

Do you think it would actually get passed in a minority situation?

And I live in Manitoba, so it would cost me no more to cost my home under the green shift.

[White Doors]

Do you think it would actually get passed in a minority situation?

And I live in Manitoba, so it would cost me no more to cost my home under the green shift.

well, nice to know you care about your fellow Canadians that aren't blessed with hydroelectric dams.

[Smallc]

well, nice to know you care about your fellow Canadians that aren't blessed with hydroelectric dams.

Its not really up to you to decided how I feel about other Canadians. I was asked a question, and I answered it. Simple as that. If you must know, I personally know no one who loves Canada as much as I do. I am a patriot. I don't necessarily like the green shift, but I don't believe that it will have the extreme negative impact that many on the Conservative right want people to believe. Many economists like it, the banks like it. If it will move Canada forward....

[Smallc]

Nanos:

33 CPC

29 LPC

20 NDP

11 BQ

7 GPC

[independent]

Its not really up to you to decided how I feel about other Canadians. I was asked a question, and I answered it. Simple as that. If you must know, I personally know no one who loves Canada as much as I do. I am a patriot. I don't necessarily like the green shift, but I don't believe that it will have the extreme negative impact that many on the Conservative right want people to believe. Many economists like it, the banks like it. If it will move Canada forward....

New flyer industries a bus manufacturer is doing a great business exporting low polluting buses to the states. Industries that role with it can stand to make a lot of money. Industries that fight it will be leaved behind. Protecting the environment is the in thing whether it is needed or not. Those that do not want to move with the tide will be leaved behind.

[Smallc]

Protecting the environment is the in thing whether it is needed or not.

I think that's part of the thing. Many countries, including the US and much of the EU, are beginning to say that they won't trade with countries that don't reduce their pollution (including carbon dioxide). We have to do something or we'll be left behind. I still really don't like the Green Shift, but so many seem to think that its good policy.

[Vancouver King]

Nanos:

33 CPC

29 LPC

20 NDP

11 BQ

7 GPC

On the surface this is about the same report as yesterday. Dig into the regional numbers and Tory support in Ontario is now at levels significantly below their 2006 showing. Quebec remains a CPC disaster.

Conservative support actually increased in Western Canada, however winning Alberta and/or rural ridings with increased margins does nothing to improve the party's reelection chances. Take out this "overkill" factor and the race nationally is virtually tied.

[Wild Bill]

On the surface this is about the same report as yesterday. Dig into the regional numbers and Tory support in Ontario is now at levels significantly below their 2006 showing. Quebec remains a CPC disaster.

Conservative support actually increased in Western Canada, however winning Alberta and/or rural ridings with increased margins does nothing to improve the party's reelection chances. Take out this "overkill" factor and the race nationally is virtually tied.

Tear at the CPC all you want. The numbers don't show a huge love for the other parties either!

Looks like Canadians are really saying " a pox on all their houses!"

Just because Harper is smelling a bit more hasn't made Stephane or Jack into any rose...

[Jobu]

I suspect an uptick for the CPC in the coming days. TSX up 225 points and the IMF report showing Canada has the strongest economy in the G7 for 2009.

It will be interesting to see how Dion and Layton try to spin this.

This couldn't be more welcome news for the CPC, particularly if the TSX can close the week on a high.

[Vancouver King]

Tear at the CPC all you want. The numbers don't show a huge love for the other parties either!

Looks like Canadians are really saying " a pox on all their houses!"

Just because Harper is smelling a bit more hasn't made Stephane or Jack into any rose...

When Harper promised us stable govt he never said the stable would smell this bad.

[jdobbin]

So at the end of the day, most of us will have less money in our pockets, cost uncertainty and no certainty that C02 emissions will decrease at all. Voting for Dion is one thing. Voting for Dion and the greenshift is crazy.

Voting Tory means cost uncertainty with the cap and trade. It hits Alberta even harder than Dion's plan by a long shot.

Voting for Tories means more costs. That's crazy!

[Jobu]

http://www.ekoselection.com/index.php/2008...october-8-2008/

Latest EKOS poll has lead up to 11 from 9 and NDP closing in on LPC, and perhaps more significantly the CPC having a heavy edge in voters who will actually vote:

CPC 35

LPC 24

NDP 20

Green 11

Bloc 10

[OTTAWA – October 8, 2008] – The Conservatives continue to maintain a significant lead nationally over all the opposition parties, according to the latest EKOS tracking poll, and have a significant lead with some of the most important groups of voters, but they are fighting a series of very different regional battles.

“Across the country, the Conservatives hold significant leads among many of the demographic groups most likely to vote, such as seniors, men and baby-boomers,” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “There is nothing in this picture that suggests that the Conservatives have been knocked off track from winning government again, by either the leaders’ debates or the international financial crisis.”

“We see no sign of a Tory collapse or a Liberal surge. It does seem that some voters have been drifting between parties in recent days, perhaps because none of them inspires much enthusiasm with the electorate,” he said. “There is some tentativeness and instability, and the gap with the Liberals was narrowing for a few days but the Tory lead, if anything is widening now, not shrinking.”

In British Columbia, the Conservatives seem to be regaining some of their momentum of earlier in the campaign, re-establishing a significant lead over their closest rival, the New Democrats.

In the Prairie provinces they are clearly ahead, though challenged in Manitoba and Saskatchewan by both the NDP and the Liberals.

In Ontario, meanwhile, the Conservatives are struggling to shake off a determined Liberal challenge and a significant NDP presence. However, they maintain a narrow lead.

In Quebec, Conservative support continues to slide and the Liberals are now emerging as principal federalist alternative to the Bloc Quebecois.

In the Atlantic provinces, meanwhile, there appears to be a three-way battle, including the Liberals and the New Democrats, though as always, relatively small case-numbers.

[jdobbin]

http://www.ekoselection.com/index.php/2008...october-8-2008/

Interesting numbers. I don't don't dispute the results.

There are two methods of conducting polls though that I am still not certain of when collecting data: automated phone calls, online collection.

Ekos uses automated phone calls.

Angus Reid uses online surveys.

It will be interesting to contrast the results at the end of the election.

Edited October 9, 2008 by jdobbin

[Jobu]

Interesting numbers. I don't don't dispute the results.

There are two methods of conducting polls though that I am still not certain of when collecting data: automated phone calls, online collection.

Ekos uses automated phone calls.

Angus Reid uses online surveys.

It will be interesting to contrast the results at the end of the election.

Indeed.

It's also interesting to me that Nanos does not give the respondents a list of parties. In my mind, while I know he was most accurate in 2006, this is silly. In the booth, I get a list of parties. I'm not sure why you wouldn't give a list here.

It's why I don't trust Nanos as much as the others, notwithstanding the 2006 results, not to mention his small sample sizes and 10-point Atlantics swings from night to night (I also noticed the Greens were up 3 in Ontario today per Nanos, which seems silly).

All of which is to say, I'm inclined to trust EKOS this time around. But that might just be wishful thinking on my part.

[jdobbin]

Strategic Counsel poll:

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...me=election2008

In Ontario:

The new numbers are down a full 10 points from the Tories' highest mark of 45 per cent in those same ridings in late September. The Liberals are closing quickly, a trend that could be an election game changer: (Brackets show percentage-point change from Oct. 1-4 poll):

* Conservative: 35 per cent (-5)

* Liberals: 31 per cent (+3)

* NDP: 24 per cent (+3)

* Bloc Quebecois: n/a

* Green Party: 10 per cent (-2)

In Quebec:

The Bloc Quebecois, which was floundering before the election call, has been given new life over the campaign :(Brackets show percentage-point change from Oct. 1-4 poll)

* Bloc Quebecois: 37 per cent (-3)

* Liberal: 24 per cent (+2)

* Conservative: 20 per cent (-1)

* NDP: 13 per cent (same)

* Green Party: 6 per cent (+2)

In B.C.:

Here are the parties' results in B.C. (Brackets show percentage-point change from Oct. 1-4 poll):

* Conservative: 32 per cent (-6)

* Liberal: 30 per cent (+3)

* NDP: 24 per cent (+2)

* Bloc: n/a

* Green Party: 14 per cent (+1)

[jdobbin]

All of which is to say, I'm inclined to trust EKOS this time around. But that might just be wishful thinking on my part.

I think I can say that I am not certain what the results are given Strategic Counsel's poll is just out.

I think all I can say is that I no longer believe the Tories will win a massive majority.

[Jobu]

Strategic Counsel poll:

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...me=election2008

In Ontario:

In Quebec:

In B.C.:

Keep in mind that these are polls only of battleground ridings (I think).

[Smallc]

Keep in mind that these are polls only of battleground ridings (I think).

Yes they are, but its still telling.

[Jobu]

Yes they are, but its still telling.

I agree, but this suggests more Tory pick-ups, and if you add in the ridings not in play, the true spread among the CPC and LPC is likely 10-12 points (or at least greater than 4). So I don't think this poll is much different than the EKOS poll.

[PoliticalCitizen]

CPC 35

LPC 24

NDP 20

Green 11

Bloc 10

Well it looks like the Conservatives will pull through but gain nothing as a result of this election.

[jdobbin]

Keep in mind that these are polls only of battleground ridings (I think).

They are. The ridings needed to win government for the Liberals or Tories.