Canadian Political Polls

[Jobu]

It means ezxactly what the pollster said it means - Harper down 4% and Dion up 4%.

Yeah, but the CPC is up about 15% from 2005.

[sharkman]

Conservative support down 12% in Ontario Strategic Counsel poll taken Oct. 10th

National Standings

Cons 35% (down 4)

Libs 28 (up 4)

NDP 19

Grn 9

Bloc 9

Second poll conducted in last 2 days showing trend away from Tories. Hmmm.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...081011?s_name=e

Better hold on to your hat, both Harris-Decima and Angus Reid pollsters have chimed in and the Tories are trending upwards with the Liberals trending downwards. And with Dion's now documented trouble with the english language in plain view for voters, the Liberal party will stay firmly in the group of opposition parties all vying for the non Tory vote.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

There is a Nanos poll that shows something different.

10% Bloc Quebecois

32% Conservative

8% Green Party

28% Liberal

22% NDP

The only poll that counts is the one on Tuesday.

[sharkman]

Yes, the Nanos poll was out earlier and quoted from on page 82 of this thread. But now 2 poll results in a row have much higher results for Harper and lower for Dion. No comment on that? And this is before Dion's English interview fumble.

[Jobu]

Nanos has lead up from 4 to 6:

With two days left in the campaign the latest CPAC Nanos tracking shows the Conservatives with a six point lead over the Liberals nationally (33% to 27%). Support for the NDP, after trending up for a few days has held steady at twenty two percent nationally. In battleground Ontario the Tories and Liberals remain in a tight race with only two points separating them in our latest tracking (Conservatives - 34% ; Liberals - 32%) with the NDP trending up to one in four (26%) in the province.

On the CPAC Nanos Leadership Index Stephen Harper has bounced back from the declines earlier this week and now holds a 30 point lead on Stephane Dion, with Jack Layton a further one point back (Harper - 87; Dion - 57; Layton - 56). On the best PM front, Harper (30%) is ten points ahead of Layton (20%) with Dion close behind at 17%).

With Thanksgiving upon us, today will be our final day in the field prior to the election with our last set of tracking numbers released Monday at 2 pm.

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election/CPAC...er-12-2008E.pdf

http://www.nikonthenumbers.com/topics/show/110

[capricorn]

I didn't see this poll on this thread.

The latest CP Harris-Decima public opinion survey released yesterday suggests the Tories had drifted back toward majority territory as the Liberal surge lost steam.

The poll had the Conservatives at 35 per cent, 10 points clear of Stephane Dion's Liberals -- a gap that's more than doubled in the last four days. The NDP had fallen back from their highs and were at 18 per cent.

That's in stark contrast to a survey released earlier this week by the same pollster that found the Liberals had passed the Tories in riding-rich Ontario, the nation's key battleground.

The Conservatives have been benefiting from growing support in Ontario and recovering confidence in Harper's leadership skills, said Harris-Decima president Bruce Anderson.

"Momentum decidedly belongs to the Conservatives," he said. "Ontario is where a lot of the volatility has been over the last few days and it's clear the Conservatives bottomed out there."

In Ontario, the Conservatives matched their national numbers at 35 per cent -- up sharply over a low of 26 per cent last week -- with the Liberals relatively flat at 32 per cent. The NDP, aggressively courting stray votes in Ontario, was at 22 per cent, the Greens at 11 per cent.

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois lead at 41 per cent, with the Tories at 23 per cent, the Liberals 21 per cent, the NDP eight per cent and the Greens at five.

http://lfpress.ca/newsstand/canadavotes/ne...057726-sun.html

Still 2 days to go. Can Dion turn it around? Maybe if he continues to call Harper a liar a dozen times in his stump speeches, it might get him, oh, a couple dozen more votes?

edit: oops, Bryan had already posted this poll.

Edited October 12, 2008 by capricorn

[independent]

http://predictor.hillandknowlton.ca/predic...2C1%3A0&r=0

Used harris-decimas latest results.

Edited October 13, 2008 by independent

[jdobbin]

Last Strategic Counsel poll:

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...me=election2008

The latest poll, conducted on Oct. 11 for CTV and the Globe and Mail, shows that the two leaders have seen their party's support drop slightly from the 2006 election results (difference in brackets):

* Conservative: 33 per cent (-2)

* Liberal: 28 per cent (-2)

* NDP: 18 per cent (none)

* Bloc Quebecois: 10 per cent (-1)

* Green Party: 11 per cent (+6)

[PoliticalCitizen]

Last Strategic Counsel poll:

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...me=election2008

And the support for Greens more than doubled

[independent]

Last Strategic Counsel poll:

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...me=election2008

46% of people still trying too decide who to vote for this holiday weekend. Information taken from link.

[Oleg Bach]

So is this the way polls work? A person hears the numbers and says to themselves - holy smoke all the people are voting liberal - I sure don't want to be cut from the herd because rugged individualism is very unpopular and I desperately need to be liked....next week the polls say everyone is Green - so would that make May the Prime Minister? Who owns these polling companies and are they honest? Just wondering.

[jdobbin]

So is this the way polls work? A person hears the numbers and says to themselves - holy smoke all the people are voting liberal - I sure don't want to be cut from the herd because rugged individualism is very unpopular and I desperately need to be liked....next week the polls say everyone is Green - so would that make May the Prime Minister? Who owns these polling companies and are they honest? Just wondering.

Do you even vote in elections? Just curious.

[Oleg Bach]

I say that I will not vote this time because I am rarely on the list. BUT - Yes if it is convenient - I will show my drivers licence and cast a ballot. I don't believe that it will do any good but I will vote. There is interest in my being for the outcome of elections...and I have been known to lobby a bit by being the pesky call in on talk radio...planting seeds is my specialty - I do have disappointment in the fact that once Harper was elected that he was taken aside and instructed by our real movers and shakers - but - I believe he may have learned from his mistakes as did his handlers - As the Iraq affair ended badly - so will the Afghan adventure....better to keep the conservatives in power and let them mature..I believe you will see things change once the Cheney effect has fully disolved - personally I am a moderate - I hope I have explained myself.

[jdobbin]

I say that I will not vote this time because I am rarely on the list. BUT - Yes if it is convenient - I will show my drivers licence and cast a ballot. I don't believe that it will do any good but I will vote. There is interest in my being for the outcome of elections...and I have been known to lobby a bit by being the pesky call in on talk radio...planting seeds is my specialty - I do have disappointment in the fact that once Harper was elected that he was taken aside and instructed by our real movers and shakers - but - I believe he may have learned from his mistakes as did his handlers - As the Iraq affair ended badly - so will the Afghan adventure....better to keep the conservatives in power and let them mature..I believe you will see things change once the Cheney effect has fully disolved - personally I am a moderate - I hope I have explained myself.

So what makes it inconvenient to vote: rain?

And who do do you think handles Harper? Is he not the boss?

[jbg]

I agree. He was the best in 08, and 06 too I think.

Which is why I suggested he may be "Zogby'd" this tim around, and I gave my reasons.

We'll see in the end!

We already know '08's results and how the pollsters did? At least in the States we haven't gotten those results published from Canada yet.

[Jobu]

We already know '08's results and how the pollsters did? At least in the States we haven't gotten those results published from Canada yet.

Huh?

Zogby nailed 2000, botched 2004.

[Oleg Bach]

So what makes it inconvenient to vote: rain?

And who do do you think handles Harper? Is he not the boss?

Not rain. Most of my life I have lived outside mainstream society and fucntioned primarily in the arts...most of the time I never appear on the voters list so I have to go through a thin line of bureacracy to get my right. It just takes a little extra effort...OK OK - I will vote.. As for who "handles" Harper...only a niave person actually believes that one singular man as a president or prime minister is in total control. I believe that those in control of our cash flow ultimately influence leaders. I am sure as with Bush and Cheney that there are small clusters of very powerful people who advise quietly - It has been this way since the game began...and that was a thousand years ago...those that "handle" our leaders will never be known..that is their security that they do not exist...It's like saying who handles Conrad Black - go ask him. Cos' even if I knew I would not tell you..

[Jobu]

Latest (last) EKOS poll:

Conservatives: 34 (-)

Liberals: 26 (-)

New Democrats: 18 (-1)

Greens: 11 (-)

Bloc Quebecois: 10 (-)

A couple of interesting snippets:

"Conservative supporters do, however, seem more determined than Liberals to go to the polls on Tuesday. And NDP supporters are growing less likely to turn out. Both of these could be significant for deciding the precise level of Liberal success on Tuesday."

"The percentage of undecided voters, while fairly small at 8%, has actually inched up in recent days. In Quebec, an astonishing number of respondents – nearly a quarter – say they are “likely” to change their vote intention before going to the polling station."

http://www.ekoselection.com/index.php/2008...ctober-13-2008/

[jdobbin]

Last Decima poll:

http://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/news/s...0f-ed4ceaf8dba1

A tracking poll by Harris/Decima-Canadian Press showed the Conservatives steady at 35 per cent, with the Liberals up one point at 26 per cent, followed by the NDP at 18 per cent, Bloc Québécois up one point to 10 per cent and the Green party slipping two points to nine per cent.

[Jobu]

Last Decima poll:

http://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/news/s...0f-ed4ceaf8dba1

H/D and EKOS are pretty much the exact same! I wonder what Nanos will show today.

[Jobu]

Last Nanos Poll:

Conservatives: 34.2 (+1.2)

Liberals: 26.7 (+0.7)

NDP: 21.4 (-0.6)

Greens: 8.2 (-0.8)

Bloc Quebecois: 9.5 (-0.5)

Undecided: 17 (-1)

Looking at the tracking over the weekend shows an uptick for the individual daily performance index for Stephen Harper on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Likewise, he has recovered some lost ground on the best Prime Minister measure. The research suggests a comparatively better election close for Harper, compared to Dion and Layton.

Looking at the big picture there are a number of narratives in this campaign.

First, the Conservatives were poised to win a majority mid campaign until the culture and crime issues revitalized BQ support. Harper’s stronger closing weekend and improvement in support in battleground Ontario has helped increase his margin over the Liberals and has secured a second mandate for the Conservatives. A review of the night-to-night individual results shows a good Thanksgiving Sunday for the Harper Conservatives.

Second, it is quite likely that the Liberals under Stephane Dion will post among the worst showings in Liberal Party history. The current low water mark is the 1984 Turner loss (28%) and the research points to a potential final Liberal outcome in that range. Of note, on the best Prime Minister measure, for only two days in the complete election did Stephane Dion register higher than Jack Layton. Although the Liberals did narrow that gap last week, the weekend performances of the leaders tipped the advantage back to the Conservatives.

Third, Jack Layton and the NDP, according to the research, had consistent levels of performance and ballot tracking and there will be an expected increase in their aggregate national support.

Fourth, Gilles Duceppe has averted a BQ meltdown by playing the culture card.

Fifth, Elizabeth May will likely preside over the best showing for the Green Party of Canada in terms of the aggregate number of Green votes. Getting into the leaders’ debate represented a breakthrough for the party but it is unknown what type of negative impact she had on Green Party support by telling Green voters to cast their ballot for the Liberals.

[Jobu]

Nanos also published the last three days individually. Yesterday it was CPC 37.1, LPC 26.7, NDP 20.3, Bloc 8.7 and Green 7.1.

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election/CPAC...er-13-2008E.pdf

[Bryan]

H/D and EKOS are pretty much the exact same! I wonder what Nanos will show today.

Nanos is showing increased CPC support.

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election/CPAC...er-13-2008E.pdf

Three day average:

Conservative 34.2%

Liberal 26.7%

NDP 21.4%

Bloc 9.5%

Green 8.2%

Last day (Sunday) only:

Conservative 37.1%

Liberal 26.7%

NDP 20.3%

Bloc 8.7%

Green 7.1%

Shows Liberal support steady, but Conservative support climbing towards the end at the expense of the parties that are even more to the left!!

edit: I was beat to it!

Edited October 13, 2008 by Bryan

[Vancouver King]

These are the Nanos final set of numbers for the election:

CPC - 34.2%

Libs - 26.7

NDP - 21.4

Bloc - 9.5

Green - 8.2

Above shows 2% gain by Harper over Libs compared to 2006 and considering the unusual splits everywhere, should yield an extra 12 to 20 seats for a stronger minority govt. this time.

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election/CPAC...er-13-2008E.pdf

[PoliticalCitizen]

These are the Nanos final set of numbers for the election:

CPC - 34.2%

Libs - 26.7

NDP - 21.4

Bloc - 9.5

Green - 8.2

Above shows 2% gain by Harper over Libs compared to 2006 and considering the unusual splits everywhere, should yield an extra 12 to 20 seats for a stronger minority govt. this time.

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election/CPAC...er-13-2008E.pdf

Well I guess tomorrow night we'll have the REAL numbers - no more guesswork