Canadian Political Polls

[jdobbin]

Latest Decima poll:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...y/politics/home

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima poll of at least 1,343 voters across Canada gave the Conservatives 38 per cent support across Canada, followed by the Liberals at 27 per cent.

The New Democrats had the support of 16 per cent of respondents, followed by the Green party at nine per cent and the Bloc Quebecois at eight per cent.

A regional breakdown of the numbers suggests the Liberals have gained support in Quebec at the expense of the Conservatives, who are running second to the Bloc Quebecois.

I have no idea what is happening in Quebec in regards to this poll.

[jdobbin]

Latest Ekos polls projects massive loss for the Liberals.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/080915/...poll_canada_col

Ekos projected the Conservatives would win 147 of the 308 seats in the House of Commons, shy of the 155 needed for a majority but above the 127 they have now.

The Liberals would drop to 71 seats from 95. Their previous worst electoral result was in 1984 when they were reduced to 40 seats. The separatist Bloc Quebecois would rise by one seat to 49, the left-leaning New Democrats would pick up 10 seats to win 40, and the Greens would have one, Ekos projected.

The Ekos data was based on an automated telephone survey from Friday through Sunday, putting the Conservatives at 35 percent of the vote, the Liberals at 25 percent, the New Democrats at 19 percent, the Greens at 11 percent and the Bloc at 9 percent.

Latest Nanos poll:

A smaller Nanos Research rolling poll released on Monday put the gap smaller than under Ekos. It had the Conservatives ahead 37 percent to 31 percent, with the New Democrats at 18 percent, the Greens at 9 and the Bloc at 6. A day earlier, Nanos had shown a 38-30 Conservative-Liberal split.

[jdobbin]

Latest polls predict Tory majority.

http://ca.reuters.com/article/domesticNews...245787220080916

Ekos's automated telephone rolling survey showed the Conservatives with 38 percent support, up from 35 the day before, with the Liberals down two points at 23 percent.

Ekos pollster Paul Adams said the data also showed "a dramatic tightening in the race for second spot, with the New Democrats now within striking distance of overtaking the Liberals."

If the Liberals lose Official Opposition status, I don't even think they will survive as a national party to the next election.

Here's what Nanos said:

A smaller Nanos Research rolling poll released on Tuesday gave the Conservatives a seven-point lead, one point more than it showed on Monday. It put the Conservatives ahead 38 percent to 31 percent, with the New Democrats at 17 percent, the Greens at 8 and the Bloc at 6.

Here's what Decima said:

A rolling Harris Decima poll also published on Tuesday showed the Conservatives' lead over the Liberals unchanged at 38 percent to 27 percent.

161 seats predicted and it isn't even two weeks. My prediction of 192 seats does not sound far off.

[kimmy]

Latest polls predict Tory majority.

http://ca.reuters.com/article/domesticNews...245787220080916

If the Liberals lose Official Opposition status, I don't even think they will survive as a national party to the next election.

A little overdramatic, don't you think? I realize you're very concerned, but I don't yet see a reason to believe this is becoming the Hindenburg sized disaster you're anticipating.

The "Liberal brand" (as people are fond of saying) is very resilient. It survived Adscam and Gomery, I'm sure it can survive Stephane Dion, who is not a bad person or a crook, just a poor communicator.

Barring a turnaround, I think the Liberals will spend another term in opposition, choose a new leader, and reassess where they stand nationally. I think the party has good connections, concerned people who will work to ensure it survives, organizers and loyalists who still know how to raise money and recruit candidates. Maybe some longtime Liberals are disenchanted at the moment, but I don't think it'll be permanent. I think the Liberals will survive.

-k

[jdobbin]

A little overdramatic, don't you think? I realize you're very concerned, but I don't yet see a reason to believe this is becoming the Hindenburg sized disaster you're anticipating.

The "Liberal brand" (as people are fond of saying) is very resilient. It survived Adscam and Gomery, I'm sure it can survive Stephane Dion, who is not a bad person or a crook, just a poor communicator.

Just looking at the trends, it looks pretty indicative of a massive loss for the Liberals? You disagree?

The party borrowed $2 million just to keep operations going in the past year. They have borrowed $19 million for this election and many of the party leadership candidates carry debt from the leadership campaign.

Personally, I can't see much preventing bankruptcy for the party and that isn't being dramatic so much as it is realistic.

Barring a turnaround, I think the Liberals will spend another term in opposition, choose a new leader, and reassess where they stand nationally. I think the party has good connections, concerned people who will work to ensure it survives, organizers and loyalists who still know how to raise money and recruit candidates. Maybe some longtime Liberals are disenchanted at the moment, but I don't think it'll be permanent. I think the Liberals will survive.

At the moment, the trend is looking possible that Official Opposition status could be lost.

The Liberal brand used to be strong in Saskatchewan and Manitoba at one time. It has been replaced by the NDP.

[Bryan]

How entertaining would it be to see an NDP opposition? I know I'd watch CPAC every day!

Hmmmm... CPC with perhaps one seat short of a majority, an NDP opposition, and the Liberals dead and gone? Damn that would be fun to watch!!!!

[jdobbin]

Hmmmm... CPC with perhaps one seat short of a majority, an NDP opposition, and the Liberals dead and gone? Damn that would be fun to watch!!!!

I think the Conservatives will have their majority. It will be interesting to see if Harper tries to entice some Liberal MPs into the party.

[jbg]

I think the Conservatives will have their majority. It will be interesting to see if Harper tries to entice some Liberal MPs into the party.

He has already. Emerson, for one.

[Wild Bill]

A little overdramatic, don't you think? I realize you're very concerned, but I don't yet see a reason to believe this is becoming the Hindenburg sized disaster you're anticipating.

The "Liberal brand" (as people are fond of saying) is very resilient. It survived Adscam and Gomery, I'm sure it can survive Stephane Dion, who is not a bad person or a crook, just a poor communicator.

Barring a turnaround, I think the Liberals will spend another term in opposition, choose a new leader, and reassess where they stand nationally. I think the party has good connections, concerned people who will work to ensure it survives, organizers and loyalists who still know how to raise money and recruit candidates. Maybe some longtime Liberals are disenchanted at the moment, but I don't think it'll be permanent. I think the Liberals will survive.

-k

I think you should pay close attention to jdobbin's reply to your post, Kimmy. Agreed, he seems a bit hysterical from shell shock but while you seem to coming from a "faith" perspective he's arguing from dollars and cents.

Faith may survive but it's a LOT tougher when you're broke! The financial situation for the Liberals is much more dire than folks seem to realize. I don't think their creditors will be willing to wait for them to stage any future rebirth. They want their money NOW and bankruptcy may be the Liberals only way out.

[Topaz]

I like to see a poll that does in by region like the Martime Provinces, Quebec, Ontario and then the west. My guess would be that the Martimes would be NDP and Lib, Quebec would be Cons, NDP and Libs, Ontario- NDP, Lib and Cons and the west would be Cons, NDP Lib. I also think the Green party may get enough to show in Parliament which I think be more entertaining watching Harper and May go at it!and the bloc won't be back.

[Wild Bill]

I like to see a poll that does in by region like the Martime Provinces, Quebec, Ontario and then the west. My guess would be that the Martimes would be NDP and Lib, Quebec would be Cons, NDP and Libs, Ontario- NDP, Lib and Cons and the west would be Cons, NDP Lib. I also think the Green party may get enough to show in Parliament which I think be more entertaining watching Harper and May go at it!and the bloc won't be back.

Maybe this one will be useful to you:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics

Your projections don't jive with this poll but it does give you a regional breakdown you might find interesting.

Edited September 17, 2008 by Wild Bill

[Motoro]

Latest polls predict Tory majority.

http://ca.reuters.com/article/domesticNews...245787220080916

If the Liberals lose Official Opposition status, I don't even think they will survive as a national party to the next election.

-snip-

161 seats predicted and it isn't even two weeks. My prediction of 192 seats does not sound far off.

jdobbin,

You keep basing your entire doomsday prediction on the current "trend", making the assumption that the trend will not change, or even level off. In the last two elections we've seen changes in momentum, so what makes you think it can't happen this time? You know that old saying about a week in politics...especially true during a campaign. There are a number of things happening, or just around the corner that could yet move the numbers:

-increasing financial market turmoil

-release of Afghan mission cost

-the leaders' debates

-the delayed/not delayed proceedings on the "in-and-out scheme" & Cadman

-Julie Couillard's book release

-misc...there is usually something (gaffes, candidate revelations, etc.)

This is not even taking into account Williams' ABC campaign or the 4-on-1 gang-up of attack ads that will ramp up as the election continues.

Indeed, we are already seeing a plateau in the Conservative numbers:

Wikipedia - Opinion polling in the Canadian federal election, 2008

Since the writ dropped on Sep.7, only 2 polls out of 21 put the Conservatives above 40%. All others have them hovering around 36-40%, with the most frequent number at 38%. Nanos, which got the last two elections right, has the gap at 7 or 8 pts over its last 6 samples. If there is an upward trend, it is barely there. Really, I'm seeing a stagnation, just shy of majority territory. Not good numbers for the Libs, but not a collapse to 42 seats as you suggest. Looking at the electoral map, even in an extreme case, I can't see the Libs getting less than 55 seats, nor the Conservatives more than 185 in this election. I don't see the NDP getting 55. No Stornoway for Layton.

I will agree that the Liberals are in trouble financially, but that doesn't mean they'll perform poorly come Oct.14. Anyway, even if the Liberals collapse into the financial abyss afterwards, another centrist party will be formed, because politics, just as nature, hates a vacuum. The party will just have a different name, but have most of the same players. This new party will have to emerge fairly quickly, because Harper and Layton will be moving to fill the space between them. Or maybe it'll be the Greens that grow into that space??

Disclaimer: I am not a Liberal voter.

-Motoro

[jdobbin]

I think you should pay close attention to jdobbin's reply to your post, Kimmy. Agreed, he seems a bit hysterical from shell shock but while you seem to coming from a "faith" perspective he's arguing from dollars and cents.

I think I have been fairly objective in looking at what things look like in term of the Liberals.

I haven't hysterically come to a conclusion. I've looked at what amounts to the perfect storm for Liberal fortunes.

Faith may survive but it's a LOT tougher when you're broke! The financial situation for the Liberals is much more dire than folks seem to realize. I don't think their creditors will be willing to wait for them to stage any future rebirth. They want their money NOW and bankruptcy may be the Liberals only way out.

I agree that even before the next session unless Harper calls it immediately, the Liberals will have to consider whether to declare bankruptcy.

However, it is more than just money that is hurting the Liberals. It is about organization and philosophy as well.

Things won't be solved with a quick leadership change as some think.

[jdobbin]

You keep basing your entire doomsday prediction on the current "trend", making the assumption that the trend will not change, or even level off. In the last two elections we've seen changes in momentum, so what makes you think it can't happen this time? You know that old saying about a week in politics...especially true during a campaign. There are a number of things happening, or just around the corner that could yet move the numbers:

I think I said in my first post on my prediction that the first week of the election would show whether Dion could out perform even the low expectations of him. He did get to that mark but it mattered not as the Liberals did not appear to have an interesting overall policy platform nor a compelling enough argument why people should vote against the other guys.

-increasing financial market turmoil

Which the Liberals have not benefited from because the turmoil has not swept across Canada. It has primarily hit one part of the manufacturing sector.

-release of Afghan mission cost

Which comes after the election by the looks of it. And what traction the Liberals hope to get is unknown since they supported the mission extension.

-the leaders' debates

The recent debates have not moved the polls significantly. You would have to go back to the 1980s to see a debate that helped either the Liberals or Tories. For example, the 1984 debate helped Mulroney crush Turner. The 1988 debate helped Turner dig himself out against Mulroney.

-the delayed/not delayed proceedings on the "in-and-out scheme" & Cadman

Out after the election.

-Julie Couillard's book release

Don't know if it will do damage to the Tories since it an event gone past.

-misc...there is usually something (gaffes, candidate revelations, etc.)

I think I mentioned barring the completely unexpected event such as a raid on Tory headquarters, the trend still looks like a majority.

This is not even taking into account Williams' ABC campaign or the 4-on-1 gang-up of attack ads that will ramp up as the election continues.

I haven't seen evidence that it is effective outside Newfoundland.

Indeed, we are already seeing a plateau in the Conservative numbers:

Since the writ dropped on Sep.7, only 2 polls out of 21 put the Conservatives above 40%. All others have them hovering around 36-40%, with the most frequent number at 38%. Nanos, which got the last two elections right, has the gap at 7 or 8 pts over its last 6 samples. If there is an upward trend, it is barely there. Really, I'm seeing a stagnation, just shy of majority territory. Not good numbers for the Libs, but not a collapse to 42 seats as you suggest. Looking at the electoral map, even in an extreme case, I can't see the Libs getting less than 55 seats, nor the Conservatives more than 185 in this election. I don't see the NDP getting 55. No Stornoway for Layton.

My prediction was for a Liberal Official Opposition but some polls are showing the NDP close.

I will agree that the Liberals are in trouble financially, but that doesn't mean they'll perform poorly come Oct.14. Anyway, even if the Liberals collapse into the financial abyss afterwards, another centrist party will be formed, because politics, just as nature, hates a vacuum. The party will just have a different name, but have most of the same players. This new party will have to emerge fairly quickly, because Harper and Layton will be moving to fill the space between them. Or maybe it'll be the Greens that grow into that space??

I don't know that a new party would be formed. Evidence has shown that the Liberals simply cease to exist or are reduced to a rump of a party.

The Tories are within striking distance of a majority but the trend still shows the Liberals are vulnerable from all sides.

Disclaimer: I am not a Liberal voter.

I am and I have seen this type of thing before on a provincial level.

[jdobbin]

Latest Decima poll:

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-09/...nt_10070862.htm

The Conservative Party is holding its lead over the Liberals and remain within distance of a majority government, according to a new poll released Wednesday ahead of the Oct. 14 election.

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey taken over the last four days indicates the Tories lead with 38 percent of voter support, unchanged from Tuesday's result, followed by the Liberals with 28 percent, up one percentage point.

The poll put the NDP at 15 percent, the Green party at 10 percent and the Bloc at eight percent.

[jdobbin]

Latest Segma poll for La Presse.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/080917/...litics_poll_col

Canada's ruling Conservatives have a huge lead over the opposition Liberals and are well on their way to winning a majority government in the Oct 14 election, according to a poll released on Wednesday.

The Segma survey for La Presse put the Conservatives on 42 percent support compared to just 23 percent for the Liberals. A poll by the same firm released on Sept 8 put the Conservatives ahead by 43 points to 25.

Edited September 17, 2008 by jdobbin

[Wild Bill]

I haven't hysterically come to a conclusion. I've looked at what amounts to the perfect storm for Liberal fortunes.

Things won't be solved with a quick leadership change as some think.

I did not mean in the slightest that your conclusions were a result of hysterical faulty reasoning. I was only teasing you about being hysterical for the downturn in Liberal fortunes, considering your often avowed support!

I find your analysis of the Liberal predicament to be quite logical. True, the election campaign is still early and unexpected variables may arise that could dramatically change expected outcomes.

Nonetheless, that doesn't change the fact that given the factors you know today your conclusions are well thought out and deserving of respect.

Lots of others are making much less informed predictions than yours!

[jdobbin]

I did not mean in the slightest that your conclusions were a result of hysterical faulty reasoning. I was only teasing you about being hysterical for the downturn in Liberal fortunes, considering your often avowed support!

Don't think that is hysterical either. Just a grim outcome for someone who doesn't identify with the NDP or Conservatives and doesn't know anything about the Greens since they have never won office in any capacity that I know of.

I find your analysis of the Liberal predicament to be quite logical. True, the election campaign is still early and unexpected variables may arise that could dramatically change expected outcomes.

Nonetheless, that doesn't change the fact that given the factors you know today your conclusions are well thought out and deserving of respect.

Lots of others are making much less informed predictions than yours!

Until the end of August, my prediction was for a minority Tory government. Timing is everything but leadership has been one of the major issues and the Liberals are just not making an impact.

Some analysts are saying the Tories are vulnerable to negative attacks. I am still not convinced that it will work. The thing is that all of the parties are using it and it probably makes people revert to entrenched positions which re-enforces the dynamic that led to a minority.

The trend still indicates to me that the Liberal vote is edging down. The question is: will other parties going negative bring the Tory poll strength come down as well?

[Smallc]

Don't think that is hysterical either. Just a grim outcome for someone who doesn't identify with the NDP or Conservatives and doesn't know anything about the Greens since they have never won office in any capacity that I know of.

They have been in government in places like Finland and Germany.

[jdobbin]

They have been in government in places like Finland and Germany.

In some coalition governments.

I have not seen enough of how they would do things on the municipal, provincial and federal levels to really know what their type of governance is like.

I'd like to see a few Greens at the municipal level but so far where I live I have only seen Nick Ternette and I'm afraid he is not who I want to see running things.

[PoliticalCitizen]

In some coalition governments.

I have not seen enough of how they would do things on the municipal, provincial and federal levels to really know what their type of governance is like.

I'd like to see a few Greens at the municipal level but so far where I live I have only seen Nick Ternette and I'm afraid he is not who I want to see running things.

With their popular support doubling since last election you may see some Greens in the office still

[bush_cheney2004]

With their popular support doubling since last election you may see some Greens in the office still

Cool...and led by an AMERICAN no less!

[jdobbin]

With their popular support doubling since last election you may see some Greens in the office still

Possibly. The NDP candidate dropping out in Wilson's might mean a Green win in B.C. but the NDP vote could just as easily settle with the Liberals.

[PoliticalCitizen]

Cool...and led by an AMERICAN no less!

BC, I wanted to ask you something - are there any good American political forums?

I'd like to register there and stir up some hell too

[bush_cheney2004]

BC, I wanted to ask you something - are there any good American political forums?

I'd like to register there and stir up some hell too

There are literally thousands of US political forums...like this one with a Russia thread:

http://www.politicalforum.com/