maplesyrup

Don't see how Harper can win because: 1 - Harper would have had us in Iraq, contrary to even what the majority of Americans now believe was the wrong decision. 2 - Harper doesn't believe in abortion rights for women, same-sex marriage, or gay rights, 3 - Harper wants to give tax breaks to the rich 4 - Harper believes in capital punishment 5 - Harper does not support Kyoto Accord 6 - Harper does not believe in bilingualism Harper just seems to be on the wrong side of too many issues that are dear to Canadians' hearts.

-from the same article

I think what might have happened is that Harper and the Conservatives have had a free ride for the first part of the campaign. The moment it looked like the possibility of a Conservative minority, and then Harper starting to bragg about a Conservative majority, has finally woken Canadians up, and they are starting to check him out. Canadians may be angry with the Liberals, but I am not sure they are that mad SES CPAC have been quite close to the other polling companies in their polling, and also tend to be trendsetters.

Don't worry - have a little faith in Canadians, eh?

Paul Wells says: "Turnaround?" Maybe! Maybe!

Stephen Harper should be on his knees kissing Belinda's feet, for the credibility she has brought to the Conservatives, with certain segments of Canadian society. Without her run for the leadership, and the resultant publicity, Harper and the Tories would be obtaining substantially less support in the polls 20%.

Harper crowd jeers Press Gallery What the .... was this? Did anyone else see it yesterday? Weird. Very weird. Maybe this is the reason for the drop in the polls for Harper.

Martin pounds home anti-Tory message in face of new bad-news poll Do I detect some kind of a shift in momentum?

Actually it is a 3 point drop for the Tories.

SES CPAC poll results: Canada Party/Jun 10/Jun 11/Change Cons: 37%, 34%, down 3% Libs: 32%, 33%, up 1% New Dem: 17%, 18%, up 1% Bloc: 10%, 11%, up 1% Grn: 5%, 5%, flatlined Undec: 22%, 24%, up 2% So interestingly, 3 parties went up, the Bloc, the Liberals, and the New Democrats, all by the same amount, and the Conservatives went down by a wider margin.

Canada Company Date----------CO LI ND BL GN OT UD SES CPAC 11/06/2004 34 33 18 11 05 ?? 24 EKOS 10/06/2004 34 30 19 ?? ?? ?? ?? SES CPAC 10/06/2004 37 32 17 10 05 ?? 22 Leger Marketing 09/06/2004 30 33 19 12 ?? ?? ?? Ipsos-Reid 09/06/2004 31 32 16 ?? ?? ?? ?? SES CPAC 09/06/2004 37 33 15 10 05 ?? 22 SES CPAC 08/06/2004 35 31 16 11 06 ?? 23 SES CPAC 07/06/2004 34 32 20 11 04 ?? 22 Ipsos-Reid 04/06/2004 31 32 17 11 06 ?? ?? SES CPAC 04/06/2004 34 37 17 09 03 ?? ?? SES CPAC 03/06/2004 32 35 19 09 04 ?? ?? SES CPAC 02/06/2004 29 37 19 11 05 ?? ?? Leger Marketing 02/06/2004 30 35 17 12 05 ?? ?? SES 01/06/2004 25 36 22 13 05 ?? ?? Ipsos-Reid 31/05/2004 30 34 16 ?? 06 ?? ?? SES 31/05/2004 26 36 20 13 05 ?? ?? SES 30/05/2004 31 34 19 12 03 ?? ?? EKOS 28/05/2004 30 38 18 11 ?? ?? ?? SES 28/05/2004 31 40 16 10 03 ?? ?? SES 27/05/2004 29 42 17 10 02 ?? ?? Environics 26/05/2004 29 38 21 11 ?? ?? ?? SES 26/05/2004 28 41 18 11 03 ?? ?? Compas 22/05/2004 31 39 17 11 ?? ?? ??

Hugh Winsor in today's Globe & Mail - "CPAC Viewers Get Their Ten Cents Worth" "Although CPAC has ramped up its regular programs and added several new approaches, the factor that put it on the media map has been its decision to run a daily tracking poll, produced by a relatively low-profile survey firm, SES Canada Research Inc……SES caught the Conservative surge and the Liberals' decline before other outlets. SES also produced an analysis indicating the Conservatives' reputation on social issues is hampering attempts to attract female voters." Daily Snapshot Based on last night's numbers, CPAC-SES Nightly Tracking shows that support for the Conservatives and Harper as PM has slipped: Conservatives 34% (down from 37% in the previous day's tracking poll), Liberals 33%, NDP 18%, BQ 11%, Green 5%. Although earlier in the week Harper came close to Martin as best PM, the Martin lead has widened: Martin 31%, Harper 22%, Layton 11%. Our nightly tracking indicates that when the campaign focuses on change, the Tory numbers move up and when the focus becomes the socially conservative views of some Tory candidates the Tory numbers go down. Going into the weekend before the debate we have a virtual dead heat. Between the new ads for the respective campaigns and the televised debates get ready for a very interesting week of nightly polling. Polling June 8 to June 10 (Random Telephone Survey of 600 Canadians, MoE ±4.1%, 19 times out of 20). Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Our tracking polls allow for a daily barometer on the activities of the respective campaigns. Decided Voters (Change from May 25th, 1st Nightly Tracking Poll Results) CP - 34% (+6) LIB - 33% (-8) NDP - 18 (0) BQ - 11% (0) GP - 5% (+2) *24% of Canadians were undecided (+3) Appetite for Change (Change from May 25th, 1st Nightly Tracking Poll Results) Time for Change - 56% (+4) Liberals doing a good job - 24% (-4) Agree with neither - 10% (-1) Unsure - 9% (-1) Best PM (Change from May 25th, 1st Nightly Tracking Poll Results) Martin - 31% (0) Harper - 22% (+5) Unsure -21% (-3) None - 12% (-4) Layton - 11% (+2) Duceppe - 3% (0) On the SES website (www.sesresearch.com), we post updated daily longitudinal tracking charts and details on the questions and the methodology each afternoon. Watch PrimeTime Politics at 8 pm EST (Monday to Friday) to get a detailed briefing of the numbers. For any media use of the polling data, we need to clearly identify the sponsor (CPAC). Please refer to the research as the CPAC-SES Nightly Tracking. Feel free to forward this e-mail. Cheers, Nik

Support for Tories and Harper Slides

Canada headed for electile dysfunction Now a little dose of reality. How refreshing!

The 'Dirty Secrets' of Pollsters

Makes sense to me as the Conservatives have been musing about a Conservative-Bloc Alliance. Strange that it was Duceppe who rejected the idea . I believe we will see a Liberal-Conservative alliance. Makes the most sense.

The vast majority of the media in Canada is controlled by business interests who support the Conservatives and the Liberals. 99% of the stuff you will see in the press will support these two parties. Absolutely there is serious bias in the media, and it is up to us Canadians to come up with ideas, and a concrete action plan, to control its abuses.

Harper was a no-show at their conference. Layton & Martin attended. If Harper keeps up his "bubble" performance he could blow it.

Mayors warn against Conservative victory Canadians are usually closest to their municipal politicians. I wonder what kind of impact these mayors will have.

I wonder how Belinda is going to enjoy the House of Commons?

Actually the ads seem fine. This is part of politics to run ads, isn't it? The Liberals are just emulating ads that Bush ran quite successfully in his election campaign.

Layton poised to beat Mills

Quebec Company Date----------BL LI CO ND GR OT UN Compas 12/06/2004 50 32 ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? CROP 12/06/2004 44 32 14 08 ?? ?? ?? EKOS 11/06/2004 54 22 ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? Leger Marketing 09/06/2004 46 31 13 08 ?? 02 00 SES CPAC 08/06/2004 43 30 15 10 03 ?? 28 Ipsos-Reid 04/06/2004 45 ?? ?? 28 ?? ?? ?? Leger Marketing 02/06/2004 46 33 09 09 02 01 ?? SES CPAC 01/06/2004 49 30 13 05 03 ?? 22 Ipsos-Reid 31/05/2004 44 29 ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? EKOS 28/05/2004 45 36 ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? Environics 26/05/2004 48 32 10 10 ?? ?? ??

Ontario Company Date-----------CO LI ND GR OT UN EKOS 11/06/2004 38 34 21 ?? ?? ?? Leger Marketing 09/06/2004 36 35 24 ?? 05 00 SES CPAC 08/06/2004 43 33 22 03 ?? 16 Ipsos-Reid 04/06/2004 35 32 23 ?? Leger Marketing 02/06/2004 37 39 18 05 SES CPAC 01/06/2004 32 39 25 03 ?? 20 Ipsos-Reid 31/05/2004 36 36 21 EKOS 28/05/2004 35 40 22 Environics 26/05/2004 29 46 22

EKOS poll results released June 11, 2004 Canada Party/May 25/Jun 11 Cons: 30%, 34%, up 4% Libs: 38%, 30%, down 8% New Dem: 18%, 19%, up 1%