maplesyrup

Les Québécois ne lâcheront pas le Bloc pour battre les conservateurs, croit Gilles Duceppe No kidding!

SES CPAC poll released today shows: Liberals; 35%, down 6% Conservatives: 32%, up 4% New Democrats: 19%, up 1% This shows a 10% change between the Conservatives and the Liberals, in the Conservatives favour, with the NDP gaining slightly. Finally, a real election race I remember Ed broadbent commenting on Martin when Ed launched his cmeback campaign saying: "Martin had never been tested".

Liberal attacks were ordered by top officials, sources say How sad to see what was once a great political party stoop to such low and desperate tactics as they slink into the political sunset.

The chickens are coming home to roost. Martin will now pay the price for his putsch against Chretien. I think one of the major things that is disturbing Canadians is when Martin was asked how much money CSL received from the Canadian government, and Canadians were initially told $137,000., when actually it was $162,000,000. Susan Riley, of the Ottawa Citizen, called Martin's leadership a Shakesperean tragegy in the making. I think she was correct

Canada Company Date-----------LI CO ND BL GN Ipsos-Reid 04/06/2004 32 31 17 11 ?? SES CPAC 04/06/2004 37 34 17 09 03 SES CPAC 03/06/2004 35 32 19 09 04 SES CPAC 02/06/2004 37 29 19 11 05 Leger Marketing 02/06/2004 35 30 17 12 5 SES 01/06/2004 36 25 22 13 5 Ipsos-Reid 31/05/2004 34 30 16 ?? 6 SES 31/05/2004 36 26 20 13 5 SES 30/05/2004 34 31 19 12 3 EKOS 28/05/2004 38 30 18 11 SES 28/05/2004 40 31 16 10 3 SES 27/05/2004 42 29 17 10 2 Environics 26/05/2004 38 29 21 11 SES 26/05/2004 41 28 18 11 3 Compas 22/05/2004 39 31 17 11

Characterizations of the Liberal campaign as desperate over the past two days have put the Conservatives into striking distance of the Liberals as of polling completed last night: Liberals 35%, Conservatives 32%, NDP 19%. The percentage of Canadians saying it is time for a change is also up to 58%, 6 points higher than the start of the campaign. Polling May 31 to June 2 (Random Telephone Survey of 600 Canadians, MoE ±4.1%, 19 times out of 20). Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Our tracking polls allow for a daily barometer on the activities of the respective campaigns. Decided Voters (Change from May 25th, 1st Nightly Tracking Poll Results) LIB - 35% (-6) CP - 32% (+4) NDP - 19 (+1) BQ - 9% (-2) GP - 4% (+1) *13% of Canadians were undecided (-8) Appetite for Change (Change from May 25th, 1st Nightly Tracking Poll Results) Time for Change - 58% (+6) Liberals doing a good job - 26% (-2) Agree with neither - 10% (-1) Unsure - 7% (-3) Best PM (Change from May 25th, 1st Nightly Tracking Poll Results) Martin - 30% (-1) Unsure -20% (-4) Harper - 22% (+5) Layton - 13% (+4) None - 11% (-5) Duceppe - 5% (+2) On the SES website (www.sesresearch.com), we post updated daily longitudinal tracking charts and details on the questions and the methodology each afternoon. Watch PrimeTime Politics at 8 pm EST (Monday to Friday) to get a detailed briefing of the numbers. For any media use of the polling data, we need to clearly identify the sponsor (CPAC). Please refer to the research as the CPAC-SES Nightly Tracking. Feel free to forward this e-mail. Cheers, Nik

Tory Rope-a-Dope Stings PM Good article on how well the Conservative strategy is working during this election campaign.

Apparently it was quite a nasty e-mail. And the party name is Conservative Party of Canada. Easy, big fellow.

Is another one of the Martin Liberals "Star' candidates in BC biting the dust? This time it is Shirley Chan over a campaign worker's e-mail sent out calling people retarded. She's done like dinner.

Quote of the day from the federal election campaign Wednesday. "I apologize for there being that small protest outside, but I have to tell you I have no control over where the Liberal party holds its cabinet meetings." - Conservative Leader Stephen Harper to the Toronto Board of Trade.

Lone Quebec Tory throws support behind Liberal How serious a blow is this to Conservative fortunes?

Homeless death toll 17 in Ottawa this year

NDP's Jack Layton touts Alberta's wind power These are the kind of progressive ideas Canadians are looking for from their national politicians.

Liberals' Ontario stronghold besieged Good Article.

Liberals could lose: PM

David Herle, the Martin Liberals Campaign Co-Chair, has been working for both the federal and Ontario Liberals. Herle was involved in assisting the McGuinty Liberals draft up their budget. Herle himself has now become a campaign issue. He may stay around, and totally destroy Martin's campaign, but effectively he's done like dinner.

SES CPAC are dead on (see their press release today), and completely in tune with the other polling that have come out during the election campaign. From analysing their polling data, SES CPAC are the first to spot trends. BTW those SES CPAC + or - are not the changes from the previous day. They are the changes from May 25, when they started polling, I believe.

There is something about dying with dignity, isn't there?

Canada Company Date-----------Li Co ND Bl Gn SES CPAC 03/06/2004 35 32 19 09 04 SES CPAC 02/06/2004 37 29 19 11 05 Leger Marketing 02/06/2004 35 30 17 12 5 SES 01/06/2004 36 25 22 13 5 Ipsos-Reid 31/05/2004 34 30 16 ?? 6 SES 31/05/2004 36 26 20 13 5 SES 30/05/2004 34 31 19 12 3 EKOS 28/05/2004 38 30 18 11 SES 28/05/2004 40 31 16 10 3 SES 27/05/2004 42 29 17 10 2 Environics 26/05/2004 38 29 21 11 SES 26/05/2004 41 28 18 11 3 Compas 22/05/2004 39 31 17 11

Third publicly released poll mirrors CPAC - SES Nightly Tracking. Sample (SES - 600, Leger - 3,107) MoE (SES 4.1, Leger 1.8) Liberals (SES 37, Leger 35) Conservatives (SES 29, Leger 30) NDP (SES 19, Leger 17) BQ (SES 11, Leger 12) Green (SES 5, Leger 5) CPAC-SES polling was the first to show the Liberal-Conservative gap narrowing (LP 34, CP 31) last Saturday. New Liberal campaign tactics seem to be working. In the current scenario, McGuinty taking shots at Martin is good for federal Liberal support. As of last night, the Liberals lead the Conservatives by eight points. Polling May 30 to June 1 (Random Telephone Survey of 600 Canadians, MoE ±4.1%, 19 times out of 20). Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Our tracking polls allow for a daily barometer on the activities of the respective campaigns. Decided Voters (Change from May 25th, 1st Nightly Tracking Poll Results) LIB - 37% (-4) CP - 29% (+1) NDP - 19 (+1) BQ - 11% (0) GP - 5% (+2) *14% of Canadians were undecided (-7) Appetite for Change (Change from May 25th, 1st Nightly Tracking Poll Results) Time for Change - 55% (+3) Liberals doing a good job - 29% (+1) Agree with neither - 8% (-3) Unsure - 8% (-2) Best PM (Change from May 25th, 1st Nightly Tracking Poll Results) Martin - 32% (+1) Unsure -22% (-2) Harper - 20% (+3) Layton - 12% (+3) None - 10% (-6) Duceppe - 4% (+1) On the SES website (www.sesresearch.com), we post updated daily longitudinal tracking charts and details on the questions and the methodology each afternoon. For any media use of the polling data, we need to clearly identify the sponsor (CPAC). Please refer to the research as the CPAC-SES Nightly Tracking. Feel free to forward this e-mail.

Leger Marketing regional poll for Quebec released June 2, 2004 Quebec Bloc: 46% Libs: 33% Cons: 8% New Dem: 9% Grn: 2% Oth: 1% Quebec Company Date----------LI CO ND BL GR OT Ipsos-Reid 04/06/2004 28 ?? ?? 45 ?? ?? Leger Marketing 02/06/2004 33 09 09 46 02 01 SES CPAC 01/06/2004 Ipsos-Reid 31/05/2004 29 ?? ?? 44 EKOS 28/05/2004 36 ?? ?? 45 Environics 26/05/2004 32 10 10 48

Leger Marketing regional poll for the Atlantic Region released June 2, 2004 Atlantic Region Libs: 41% Cons: 30% New Dem: 21% Grn: 6% Oth: 2%

Leger Marketing regional poll for Alberta released June 2, 2004 Alberta Cons: 54% Libs: 28% New Dem: 12% Grn: 4% Oth: 2% Alberta Company Date-------LI CO ND GR OT Leger Marketing 02/06/04 28 54 12 04 02 SES CPAC 01/06/04 Ipsos-Reid 31/05/04 27 49 14 EKOS 28/05/04 31 55

Leger Marketing regional poll for Manitoba and Saskatchewan released June 2, 2004. Manitoba & Saskatchewan Libs: 35% Cons: 34% New Dem: 26% Grn: 2% Oth: 2% Manitoba & Saskatchewan Company Date----------LI CO ND GR OT Ipsos-Reid 04/06/2004 38 45 13 Leger Marketing 02/06/2004 35 34 26 02 02 SES CPAC 01/06/04 41 35 23 01 Ipsos-Reid 31/05/2004 36 30 25 ?? EKOS 29/05/2004 36 38 23

I wonder if some Quebeckers, not necessarily the Bloc supporters, as well as voters in other provinces, when they see the trends, not to be left out of government, will switch to the Conservatives. The bandwagon effect.