maplesyrup

If these trends continue minority government may be a mute point. We may be getting a Conservative majority government.

British Columbia Company Date-------LI CO ND GR Leger Marketing 02/06/04 29 32 28 9 SES CPAC 01/06/04 34 29 29 8 Ipsos-Reid 31/05/04 34 39 14 EKOS 28/05/04 29 37 30 Environics 26/05/04 27 34 36

Leger Marketing regional polling for BC released June 2, 2004: British Columbia Cons: 32% Libs: 29% New Dem: 28% Grn: 9% Oth: 1%

Win-win all the way for Bloc

Harper's French fact

Layton warns voters of Tory Bloc alliance I think Peter MacKay got the ball rolling on this issue, by musing on the possibility.

Abortion controversy eclipses good poll news for Conservatives Is this the election of gaffes?

Summary of polling results for British Columbia British Columbia Company Date-------LI CO ND GR Leger Marketing 02/06/04 29 32 28 9 SES CPAC 01/06/04 34 29 29 8 Ipsos-Reid 31/05/04 34 39 14 EKOS 28/05/04 29 37 30 Environics 26/05/04 27 34 36

Leger Marketing polling results released June 2, 2004 Canada Libs: 35% Cons: 30% New Dem: 17% Bloc: 12% Grn: 5% Canada Company Date-----------Li Co ND Bl Gn SES CPAC 02/06/2004 37 29 19 11 05 Leger Marketing 02/06/2004 35 30 17 12 5 SES 01/06/2004 36 25 22 13 5 Ipsos-Reid 31/05/2004 34 30 16 ?? 6 SES 31/05/2004 36 26 20 13 5 SES 30/05/2004 34 31 19 12 3 EKOS 28/05/2004 38 30 18 11 SES 28/05/2004 40 31 16 10 3 SES 27/05/2004 42 29 17 10 2 Environics 26/05/2004 38 29 21 11 SES 26/05/2004 41 28 18 11 3 Compas 22/05/2004 39 31 17 11

SES CPAC poll released June 1, 2004 British Columbia Libs: 34% Cons: 29% New Dem: 29% Grn: 8%

Layton warns of Tories and Bloc deal Things are beginning to heat up. Less than two weeks left until the first debate.

SES CPAC regional polling results June 1, 2004 Manitoba & Saskatchewan Libs: 41% Cons: 35% New Dem: 23% Grn: 1%

Actually for SES if the margin of error is 4% the NDP could have 24%, and the Conservatives 22%. Having said that, I will just accept what the polls say without putting a Cons, or Lib, or New Dem spin on them.

Leger Marketing polling results released June 2, 2004 Ontario Libs: 39% Cons: 37% New Dem: 18% Ontario Company Date-------LI CO ND GR Leger Marketing 02/06-04 39 37 18 05 SES CPAC 01/06/04 39 32 25 Ipsos-Reid 31/05/04 36 36 21 EKOS 28/05/04 40 35 22 Environics 26/05/04 46 29 22

SES CPAC regional poll released June 1, 2004 Sample size: 1,000 Canadawide (identical to Ipsos-Reid) Ontario Libs: 39% Cons: 32% New Dem: 25% Grn: 3%

August1991.....thanks. The sample size is identical as the Ipsos-Reid poll that came out yesterday - 1,000 Canadians, Canadawide.

June 1, 2004 - UPDATE: Word has just been received that Paul Martin did indeed have a meeting with fomer IWA Canada president and current Liberal candidate Dave Haggard this morning. With the release of a new slate of television ads that feature Mr. Haggard so prominently, Mr. Haggard's resignation as a candidate would be a huge blow to the fortunes of the Liberal party in BC. If there is silence from Mr. Haggard over the next couple of days, it will indicate that Martin was successful in quelling his fears. http://www.tdhstrategies.com/home.html

Kliege.....sorry to bother you but am unable to access that SES link for the regional polling you posted. Could you post a highlighted link here so we can all just clink on it and it will bring us to the article. Thanks.

Speculation is rife as to why after a visit to Vancouver late last week, Paul Martin is back in town for only one scheduled event (as the Liberal itinerary states: 8:30am Prime Minister and Mrs. Martin visit the VON Family Respite Centre). Rumour is that one of Martin's high profile BC candidates (one that appears in a new slate of Liberal television ads) is ready to quit based on sobering polling numbers and backlash from traditional supporters, and the Prime Minister is in town for a face-to-face meeting to ensure that does not happen. More details to come. June 1, 2004

Kliege....can you post a URL link for those SES regional polls. Thanks.

When polls show the New Dem rising, I don't expect Libs or Cons supporters to be happy, and the same when polls show the Cons rising, the New Dems and the Liberals won't be happy. Kliege you look at polls through Conservative coloured glasses. The NDP has risen 4% nationally, showing them in a dead heat with the Cons for second place, and Jack Layton has risen 4% as best choice fror Prime Minister, in the most recent SES poll. Don't shoot the messenger.

Compare the survey dates for the most recent SES and Ipso-Reid polls.

At first I couldn't understand why the Liberals had decided, starting today, to run ads specifically targeting the NDP in BC. With the release of the latest SES polling results today, showing the growth in national support for both the NDP, up 4%, and the New Democrat Leader Jack Layton, up 4%, and also showing Conservatives and the NDP in a dead heat nationally, Cons 25%, New Dems 22%, within the margin of error, I now understand. SES are supposed to release regional polls sometime today.

I guess you didn't read this: Side Note - Canada's Top Pollsters Agree - Comparison of CPAC-SES Nightly Tracking to Ekos and Ipsos Numbers. The latest polling results for SES are for 600 people Margin of error: +/- 4.1%, 19 times out of 20 So, as a result, it shows: Conservatives and NDP in a dead heat for second place

Subject: Day 7 CPAC- SES Tracking - Positive Signs for NDP Coming Out of Weekend Side Note - Canada's Top Pollsters Agree - Comparison of CPAC-SES Nightly Tracking to Ekos and Ipsos Numbers. May 25 to 27 Sample (SES - 600, Ekos - 1,306) Margin of Accuracy (SES ±4.1, Ekos ±2.7) Liberals (SES 40, Ekos 38) Conservatives (SES 31, Ekos 30) May 27 to 29 Sample (SES - 600, Ipsos - 1,000) Margin of Accuracy (SES ±4.1, Ipsos ±3.1) Liberals (SES 34, Ipsos 34) Conservatives (SES 31, Ipsos 30) But with CPAC-SES you get nightly numbers the next day, throughout the campaign. As of last night, compared to the beginning of the campaign, NDP support is up 4 points and Layton as best candidate for Prime Minister, is also up 4 points. The aftermath of last week saw the Liberals and Conservatives in a virtual dead heat. Now, beyond the weekend, we see some movement in favour of the NDP. Polling May 29 to 31 (Random Telephone Survey of 600 Canadians, MoE ±4.1%, 19 times out of 20). Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Our tracking polls allow for a daily barometer on the activities of the respective campaigns. Decided Voters (Change from May 25th, 1st Nightly Tracking Poll Results) LIB - 36% (-5) CP - 25% (-3) NDP - 22% (+4) BQ - 13% (+2) GP - 5% (+2) *17% of Canadians were undecided (-4) Appetite for Change (Change from May 25th, 1st Nightly Tracking PollResults) Time for Change - 53% (+1) Liberals doing a good job - 28% (0) Agree with neither - 11% (0) Unsure - 8% (-2) Best PM (Change from May 25th, 1st Nightly Tracking Poll Results) Martin - 33% (+2) Unsure -22% (-2) Harper - 17% (0) Layton - 13% (+4) None - 10% (-6) Duceppe - 6% (+3) On the SES website (www.sesresearch.com), we post updated daily longitudinal tracking charts and details on the questions and the methodology each afternoon. For any media use of the polling data, we need to clearly identify the sponsor (CPAC). Please refer to the research as the CPAC-SES Nightly Tracking. Feel free to forward this e-mail. Cheers, Nik