maplesyrup

SES Latest Polling Results - Released June 1, 2004 Best Prime Minister Martin: 33%, up 2% Unsure: 22%, down 2% Harper: 17%, flatlined Layton: 13%, up 4% None: 10%, down 6% Duceppe: 6%, up 3%

Company Date--------Li Co ND Bl Gn SES 01/06/2004 36 25 22 13 5 Ipsos-Reid 31/05/2004 34 30 16 ? 6 SES 31/05/2004 36 26 20 13 5 SES 30/05/2004 34 31 19 12 3 EKOS 28/05/2004 38 30 18 11 SES 28/05/2004 40 31 16 10 3 SES 27/05/2004 42 29 17 10 2 Environics 26/05/2004 38 29 21 11 SES 26/05/2004 41 28 18 11 3 Compas 22/05/2004 39 31 17 11

SES poll released June 1, 2004 (Day 7) Canada Libs: 36%, down 5% Cons: 25%, down 3%, New Dem: 22%, up 4% Bloc: 13%, up 2% Grn: 5%, up 2%

Harper's defence platform a nice piece of politicking

Tide turning Harper's way

Ipsos-Reid: May 31, 2004 / May 22, 2004 MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN Libs: 36%, up 4% / 32% (down 6%) Cons: 30%, down 10% / 40% (up 7%) New Dem: 25%, up 1% / 24% (up 4%) Grn: ? Oth: ? Undecided & Not Voting: ?

Ipsos-Reid: May 31, 2004 / May 22, 2004 ALBERTA Cons: 49%, down 5% / 54% (up 4%) Libs: 27%, up 2% / 25% New Dem: 14%, down 1% / 15% Grn: ? Oth: ? Undecided & Not Voting: ?

Ipsos-Reid; May 31, 2004 / May 22, 2004 BRITISH COLUMBIA Cons: 39%, up 8% / 31% (flat) Libs: 34%, up 6% / 28% (down 5%) New Dem: 14%, down 6% / 20% Grn: ? Oth: ? Undecided & Not Voting: ?

Ipsos-Reid: May 31, 2004, May 22, 2004 ONTARIO Libs: 36%, down 6% / 42% (down 7%) Cons: 36%, up 8% / 28% (up 1%) New Dem: 21%, down 1% / 22% (up 5%) Grn: ? Oth: ? Undecided & Not voting: ?

Apathy as a political force

Martin can't be trusted to help cities, Layton says

Well Ipsos-Reid said tonight they are not sure that the Liberal bleeding has stopped.

I wonder what the Liberals are going to do now. The Liberals it seems made a serious tactical error at the beginning putting all their chips in the Martin basket. Now according to Ipsos-Reid tonight, we see that Martin's momentum has turned negative to the tune of 47% in the last few weeks. I get the impression the Liberals are like cornered rats. Watch out!

Ipsos-Reid: May 31, 2004 / May 22, 2004 ATLANTIC REGION Libs: 44%, down 6% / 50% (up 1%) New Dem: 25%, up 1% / 24% (up 5%) Cons: 25%, up 4% / 21% (down 8%) Grn: ? Oth: ? Undecided/Not voting ?

Canadian's opinion of Paul Martin has severely worsened in the last few weeks. I wonder why.

Ipsos-Reid: May 31, 2004 Quebec Bloc: 44%, down 6% Libs: 29%, up 1% New Dem: ? Cons: ?

Ipsos-Reid May 31, 2004 Atlantic Region Libs: 44% New Dem: 25% Cons: 25%

Ipsos-Reid May 31, 2004 Momentum Leader Improved/Worsened/Stayed the same Gilles Duceppe 12%/10%/55% Stephen Harper 32%/14%/42% Jack Layton 29%/14%/44% Paul Martin 11%/47%/36%

Company Date--------Li Co ND Bl Gn Ipsos-Reid 31/05/2004 34 30 16 ? 6 SES 31/05/2004 36 26 20 13 5 SES 30/05/2004 34 31 19 12 3 EKOS 28/05/2004 38 30 18 11 SES 28/05/2004 40 31 16 10 3 SES 27/05/2004 42 29 17 10 2 Environics 26/05/2004 38 29 21 11 SES 26/05/2004 41 28 18 11 3 Compas 22/05/2004 39 31 17 11 Ipsos-Reid 22/05/2004 35 26 18 12 5 Ipsos-Reid 20/05/2004 39 26 15 11 5 Ipsos-Reid 15/05/2004 40 24 15 11 5 Ipsos-Reid 08/05/2004 38 26 16 10 5 Compas 03/05/2004 39 27 20 12 EKOS 01/05/2004 41 28 16 Ipsos-Reid 30/04/2004 40 23 18 11 5 Environics 23/04/2004 39 29 19 11

Ipsos-Reid: May 31,2004, May 22, 2004 CANADA Libs: 34%, down 1%, 35% (down 4%) Cons: 30%, up 4%, 26% (flat) New Dem: 16%, down 2%, 18% (up 3%) Bloc: Grn: 6%, up 1%, 5% Oth: 2%, down 2%, 4% Undecide/Not Voting: 12%

Or, another way of looking at it, the CBC is not very comfortable with the current polling results. CBC is a huge rah, rah Liberal fan with the exception of Cons supporters like Rex Murphy.

I think if you look back, say at the Ipsos-Reid polling results just before the last federal election, they were almost dead on. Exit polling does not sound very healthy. What about time zones? We have media blackouts but with the communications today, using the 'net, wireless equipment, the people in western Canada can find out the results before they vote - this appears to potentially be a significant issue.

Look at the strength of the Bloc here: Libs 36% Cons 26% New Dem 20% Bloc 13% Grn 5% I don't think I have ever seen the Bloc polling figures so high. How may seats is this going to translate into, for them, in Quebec? -------------------------------------------- Someone who posts here stated he was contacted by a pollster awhile back. What do you mean by exit polls?

After a couple days of heavy opposition attacks on the Liberals late last week (Ontario Budget/ Homelessness), the Liberal numbers did dip for two days. By the weekend, the Liberals started to de-couple from the Ontario Liberal Budget and pushed back on the homeless issue. These voter shifts are indicative of a volatile environment. Under the right confluence of events, this election is up-for-grabs. Polling May 28 to 30 (Random Telephone Survey of 600 Canadians, MoE ±4.1%, 19 times out of 20). Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Our tracking polls allow for a daily barometer on the activities of the respective campaigns. Decided Voters (Change from May 25th, 1st Nightly Tracking Poll Results) LIB: 36% (-5) CP: 26% (-2) NDP: 20% (+2) BQ: 13% (+2) GP: 5% (+2) *19% of Canadians were undecided (-2) Appetite for Change (Change from May 25th, 1st Nightly Tracking Poll Results) Time for Change: 53% (+1) Liberals doing a good job: 28% (0) Agree with neither: 11% (0) Unsure: 9% (-1) Best PM (Change from May 25th, 1st Nightly Tracking Poll Results) Martin: 32% (+1) Unsure: 25% (+1) Harper: 16% (-1) Layton: 10% (+1) None: 12% (-4) Duceppe: 6% (+3)

Balanced budgets, fixed-date elections Sounds good to me.