madmax

I know. You told me all about him and as you are a sane individual (although I can't prove it) and I can have a coherent discussion that is both frank and respectful with you, I feel he should be replaced with someone of equal calibre and not a party hack or lapdog. Nudge Nudge.

No Argus. Infact ALL NATIONAL MEDIA, ALL PUNDITS said that this was a non issue and continued on that path for roughly 10 to 12 days until realizing that this is an issue and it is the public that is driving it. While the media were late on the scene, followed by the LPC and then the NDP, the CPC is just starting to wakeup after reading 4 polls released last week that said the CPC and Stephen Harper in Particular have lost a significant level of support for proroguing parliment. No media is going to turn its back on a developing story while its hot. Or did you want the media to say.. yeah its 4 polls, its a massive drop, but everything is ok and the Prime Minister is brilliant. What strategy, what game, what a tactician. Because that is what the media were saying in those first 10 to 12 days after proroguement. Now your media link is trying to reshape the story. Good luck, it will be ignored.

These retirements are non issues. Its better they come up now and give time for new people to step up in a forthcoming election. IIRC Inky Mark announced he was retiring. Anyone seen Blueblood, its time to step up to the plate

How about we Open Parliament and get to the bottom of this?

Aye. I would agree with you. This wasn't to be an "issue" and this "non issue" became an "issue" and has gone on for 16 straight days, and is very likely to pickup more steam, perhaps cool a little, then bubble and stew when the Olympics hits. After that, who knows? People don't have to like a leader. I don't think Harper has come off as warm or likeable. Same for Ignatieff, he is one step more removed from the public. So, between GAFFES and personality, its back to the battle of mistakes. With many variables, based on "current" circumstances it will be a battle of ridings and not Party or with leaders making a modest % difference in the outcome. Another minority and a shift in some marginal Mps on both sides means next parliment looks like a tossed salad again. Looking at the thread title it doesn't specify, "long term" or "Election" but does suggest "HURT". There is definitely alot of pain in the CPC camp for the next little while.

I don't believe there is a better way to describe blowing a 15 point lead that had a 177 seat projection and turn it into a 1.6% lead and a loss of 33 seats. Anyone in Politics would call this a MASSIVE DROP. I don't believe I was any less descriptive when Ignatieff turned polling numbers of 34% into 23%. A # of Reasons? Of course and I have read many. Sometimes 3 in one day. Harper is still looking for a reason that the public won't think is torokaka. Perhaps you can provide a list of reasons. I enjoy a good laugh. As it is, my Card Carrying Conservative friend neck veins popout when the subject of government not sitting until March is broached.

When Flannagan stabs you in the back, you know you have made a disasterous decision.

I believe a number of election prediction pundits are analyzing the data. The last I heard is that this drop could result the loss of 33 seats. Compare that two the 22 seat loss they were predicting for Ignatieff after his botched election call. Call it whatever you like, it don't look good nor should it.

At the beginning of the year, all the pundits and media said that proroguing was a non issue. In the polling thread, the 3rd poll released this week supports a massive drop in support for the Tories. This poll on MLW also reflects polls released this week. I think the pundits here were first out of gate

I sincerely thought he broke the cycle. I even removed a similar analysis from my Signature after 3 months of excellent behaviour and good government. I actually liked how the government was maneuvering between parties and making it work. I did believe that Ignatieff made the last blunder and looked unable to recover. Then this gift out of the blue I agree. But I think you have to look at it as a self inflicted wound, not a wound delivered by the Opposition. Because then the opposition would make the same mistake as Harper. On top of that Ignatieff has already made that mistake in Sept. The public is pretty clear. They don't want an election, they want government to get back to work. What would be the slogan? "Vote for us, we promise to show up for work"? This isn't about parties, its about government.

This is the 3rd Poll confirming a massive slide for the CPC. The gap between the CPC and LPC changed from 15.0 points to 1.6 Points. http://www.cbc.ca/politics/story/2010/01/13/ekos-conservatives-liberals-poll-prorogue-suspend.html CPC 30.9 LPC 29.3 NDP 15.3 GPC 11.9 BQ 10.2

Updating my speculation based upon these polling numbers. Its definitely falling on Prime Minister Harpers Shoulders. "While Harper closed 2009 with a better momentum score than Ignatieff, this is no longer the case. Now, Harper’s score is the worst of the three leaders at -35 (9% of Canadians report an improvement in their opinion of the Prime Minister over the past month, while 44% say their views have worsened)."

Apparently no good news to be found with the Harper Holiday. NEW ANGUS REID http://www.visioncritical.com/2010/01/after-prorogation-tory-lead-over-liberals-drops-to-six-points/ Con - 34% (-2 since Dec 9-10) Lib - 28% (-1) NDP - 19% (+3) BQ - 9% (-2) Grn - 8% (+2) "Momentum score for the Prime Minister drops, as a majority of Canadians expect a federal election to take place this year. Since the Prime Minister’s decision to prorogue Parliament, the governing Conservative Party has lost support across Canada, while the New Democratic Party (NDP) begins the year in a good position, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found."

LOL Harper pulled an Ignatieff. Much like Ignatieff miscalculated public opinion polls when in a statistical tie and announced he was forcing an election, Harper has miscalculated his near majority public opinion poll and actually pulled the plug on government. A 10% drop is massive. DOH!

Parliament shutdown leaves Tories, Liberals nearly tied: pollConservative support drops in wake of PM's decision to prorogue Parliament http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/750302--shutdown-leaves-tories-liberals-nearly-tied-poll CPC 31 Down 10% LPC 30 UP 2% NDP 18 Up 4% I see no BQ or Green Party #s.

In answer to the Thread title. LIKE A ROCK!!! See polling data thread. "What the new numbers mean, says Woolstencroft, is that the prorogation has hurt the Conservatives but not overly helped the Liberals or New Democrats — at least not yet."

The message is simple. http://thetyee.ca/Blogs/TheHook/Federal-Politics/2010/01/13/Layton-to-Harper-Recall-Parliament/ "I am calling on the Prime Minister to reconsider his decision to prorogue Parliament," NDP leader Jack Layton said on Wednesday. "I call on him to change the date of the recall of the prorogation to January 25," he said. "In exchange the New Democratic Party will agree to reinstate all of the bills that were sent back to square one to the place they were at prior to the prorogation, so that we can get on with the business at hand," Layton told a scrum of reporters outside the Vancouver Public Library.

Thanks, ditto. I can't answer the question whether or not its "Harper or Conservative". I would take a stab (not literally), at the former vs the latter. Can only concur with the vast majority of your post and the rest is speculation that we can only guess at.

Its too bad you derailed your own thread. I am not going to participate in this topic.

Correct. That could turn into LPC talking points. I don't think the LPC should start a two front attack. Read step one above. 1) The NDP should not trust Ignatieff with cooperation if last years proroguement is any indicator. I agree that the NDP will not be following the LPC tactic. Nor should they and I doubt they will be apoligists for the Harper Governments Olympic Holiday. The spectre is real if the optics perceive it as such. Thus it is better for both parties to make their cases independantly. Same for the BQ. Besides this isn't about the parties and their desire for some joint government. It is about the supression of democracy and suspension of parliament. Agreed

In order to make a story go away, the Conservatives have adopted a storyline that won't go away. They have moved the puck into their own endzone and people are paying attention. I wouldn't have mentioned this 24 hours ago, but it looks like there is a chance for the Liberals to pick up the puck. Once the opposition has the puck, it will be up to them to score. But the fact that Neither Harper, his ministers, nor former strategists can stay on message and their diversions and reasons are in multiples per day suggests that the ship is adrift. It is also apparent that Harper has let the Liberals back in the game while taking every joe public who voted for them and give them reason to ask a simple question. "WHY". After 2 weeks the Harper government is struggling to support the simplist message. All swing seats are back in play and the majority has been thrown away until Harper can move the puck back into the Neutral zone. But I see alot of checking happening and most of it coming from the general public. A governments worst enemy when angry and awoken. As for facebook groups. I have found a couple that support proroguement. 4 people on one. 313 people on the other. There is no balance on the Conservative side and this is a lopsided fight. Conservative spin doctors are crapping their pants and the spinners are pretty busy doing damage control and wordsmithery in the comments section. But it doesn't appear to be working. The silent majority is starting to take a good hard look at the Conservatives. Can Harper Change the Channel again?

double post deleted

I am always surprised at peoples motives for comment.

1) Add is well produced 2) Add targets Afghanstan inquiry 3) So What? And that to me is the problem. As a first salvo, it should wind up the LPC base. Of course the stupid thing about anything related to Torture in Afghanistan is the the LPC government didn't address the problem during their term of office. Thus Harpers/McKays incompetence is merely a reflection of status quo. 3a) Ironically, the CPC response is pathetic. Its almost as if this party is joining Ignatieff in the wilderness. Here is an update. The Canadian Forces in Afghanistan didn't prorogue parliment. That is the actions of the Conservative government and no one else. The fact that the Conservatives hide their problems with proroguement and use the Canadian Forces as a defence to mask their own incompetence and lack of will to sit in parliment is disgraceful. 4) I agree that the General public isn't in tune to the Afghanistan inquiry and the adds are unlikely to change opinion or engagement. 5) If you want to know what has people pissed, its that the government isn't sitting in the house, its that they are doing photo ops in their ridings and going to the Olympics. So many CPC MPs have blown the message track.

So when Opposition Leader Stephne Harper was complaining about prorogation he was really just "full of it". Who knew.