myata

Why would it? There's no incentive in the status quo to be smart. It worked for two centuries so should work for some more somehow. Or not, but the automatic annual rise is coming in any case. Straight out your pocket, obviously.

You don't need to buy anything, but you can think for yourself never occurred? A. There has to be an unknown animal chain, look it looks so pretty (in this paper) who cares that it hasn't been found. B. A secret lab in a totalitarian state with zero transparency that has been working with similar agents with multiple indirect indications pointing at a possibility of a leak incident. Plus new undisclosed evidence. Plus the established fact of an attempt to cover it up. Which one is more plausible here? Can't decide? Take it to a third grader. What is amazing and seriously worrying here is not that these conclusions are coming to light now but how long the natural origin thing was allowed to dominate. How did it happen, in the world of supposedly rigorous and transparent modern science? A mystery more astounding than the origin of Covid. Authority doesn't matter, only facts and reason, the evidence? Sure. Just watch it.

Simpler and to the point. What world would we be heading into if Putins, Xis big and smaller of every size and caliber are allowed to have their way with the neighbors, at will? How long would the little NATO umbrella last in that world? And we will have the famous "charter" only for victims of the aggression. This is at stake in Ukraine.

Nice summary. And it all looked all but identical or at least very close to Putin when he moved his finger on that fateful day in February. Except his armies were nothing like Guderian's. And Ukraine wasn't about to fold like France. But can't deny it, up to that moment it all looked terribly familiar...

This is about just as clueless as "I brought you peace, look the paper!" with bloodthirsty tyrant sharpening his sabers right behind the back. Except that would have been close to a century ago and some could have learned. But nah. There are two now and with those nukes too but they wouldn't think of doing us any harm, look the paper!

On top of these options, there's also reasonable conclusions based on known facts and principles of logic including Occam's razor. Do we need to invent unknown animal chains with zero evidence if and when known facts (including that new intelligence) point to a very realistic possibility that happened, not once and will happen again and again. Just amusing how all of these great scientific principles poured on the freshmen enthusiastically fly out the window when it whiffs of political expedience and just possibly, nice cash grants. Great job, Professor. Make Galileo with Newton proud.

We don't need corroborations beyond reasonable doubt here. This is not a Universal court of justice. A failure to show factual animal chain that produced virus with these characteristics in reality not some domain of probabilities combined with the known facts at the time of origin including now obvious coverup, make the lab version plausible, and in the absence of other physical possibilities, most likely. And that is enough already to make conclusions for policy, interactions, cooperation and so on.

Well, they managed something can't deny that. Walking in a street in the year two, taking in, observing it live.

Why do you like typing when obviously you can't think and not even interested to? Beats me. But OK to each their own fun.

And even more important point here: we just had another opportunity to observe how modern societies can be controlled by power interests, information, political, governments. It went way beyond scientific then rational arguments to ideology / religion style following and on to ideological labeling ("antivaxxers") and at times, witchhunt ("misogynists" etc) all the way to outrageous government overreach. It wasn't so far as we wanted to believe, right at arm's reach. So how likely could it be that someone powerful contributed to a totalitarian lab failure in the interests of pure science by contributing funding, promoting impact and interest, status and standing in the research community, and when the messup happened, aimed all their power at diverting the attention to other causes, holy vaccination quests, mandating and ordering, animal origin theory, suppressing of concerns, character assassination of opponents you name it? This is no conspiracy theory. I'm not saying that's what happened. Is it possible though? No question, we just saw that it's very well possible and right within the reach. Next, how likely it is, given the information available to us: how do we come up with a measure? And what has actually happened, in this reality: how do we know?

If the above information is verified and confirmed, on the balance of probabilities that's all the information needed for an informed conclusion, short of convincing factual evidence: an animal population carrying new strand of coronavirus with extremely high transmission in humans that existed before late fall of 2019, obviously. No number of articles with thousands of researchers juggling millions of random probabilities answers a simple question: what has actually transpired? Totalitarian lab f@kup that was working with similar agents? Any day.

because Central Committee says so. Got you. In China North.

What's "unequivocal"? Why travel so far? Are you perfectly unequivocal that SNC-L was all about pure love to Canadian employment and not something more tangible? How do you know that? What expert can promise you that knowledge? Or is it because the Greatest Leader Ever told you so, in China North?

Some of them may, but by this point in the trajectory they're out of options.

Right. Travel from Wuhan was never a problem. Just turn off your brain and enjoy the muzak.

That was about an issue directly related to public health and medical ethics standard. Nah why bother? Welcome to China (North)

Really, a host of researchers looking for a mysterious transmission chain that may or may not have existed, could not find traces of a slowly developing infection in a human community in this century? Again it's all about the balance of probabilities. If one piece of evidence exists that related research has been conducted at that facility, that one coincidence would outweigh all hypothetical calculations. Because it exists, happened and we know that will happen again, inevitably.

Under two conditions: 1) insider or any other relevant non-scientific data exists; and b) the mysterious animal chain never found with sufficient factual confidence we will know with some certainty eventually. I'll take the evidence for an incident at a totalitarian lab against it just happened randomly too bad every time. And if it doesn't exist or isnt' sufficiently convincing we will know too. In that case, sure.

Any one piece of insider evidence would tip the balance of likelihood toward an incident in a top secret government lab in a totalitarian state with zero accountability and transparency (rings distant bells btw?) versus random dance of probabilities in an unknown animal chain. Quite obviously we may not know the full details of it instantly or any time soon.

Canada PHA (actually would be interesting and educational to compile the full list of jurisdictions that did the same) took it one step further though. Again: What was the rationale and justification for a) recommendation and b) actively promoting "vaccinations" of very young children, under 12? As far as I recall, medical ethics code states: "no harm to the patient". That logically extends to not prescribing treatments that do more harm than good, to the patient. Are we past that naive past already in this brave new reality?

OK and here's an alternative scenario. If NATO support wouldn't waver and there are strong reasons for that, Russia's sad populace desire to die for the great (also patently mad) Ruler would wither out, as it happened already thrice (three times, in a course of a one century) and leave its regime with nothing else to do but to collapse. There's no way to tell for certain which one it'll be at this point, but in a couple of years at most, we should be able to see it. Mark the date.

I'm astounded by the folks here in the Western countries where truth is only a few keystrokes away mindlessly repeating Putin's propaganda like mental zombies. Every single psycho on this planet had been "provoked" by someone or something, this is how being a psycho works.

Upon a further thought, maybe speculations of animal origin, more or less grounded, short of convincing factual evidence have significance only in the theoretical perspective. This mutation more or less likely than that one sure, but it says nothing about what actually happened. It makes sense only if other possibilities have been ruled out that clearly is not the case. We already know that incidents in critical infrastructure can, have and will happen. With the combination of factors in this case even those in the public domain, it's not only possible but appears to be plausible. So there's at least one plausible cause that can be ruled out only with factual evidence, finding the animal source.

OK let's stand up and remember: a psycho broke into the house of an innocent victim; they burned, raped and killed. Then, dismembered. Psycho said they were "provoked" though the only thing they had to do was to keep to their own place. What "provocations"? What "Biden"? Is the act itself not the answer, what other arguments are needed to the evidence of inhumane, hellish crimes? Of course this is the psycho's, Russia's narrative but really, we have to stay sane here no? There are no arguments that can explain or justify the crimes and evil of this magnitude.

If the issue is discussed on the level of informed citizen rather than specialist/expert (no S) here's some obvious tensions with the "natural origin" theory: - in all previous instances, SARS, MERS, coronaviruses were transmitting slowly, adapting to new host immune system so individual quarantines worked. This as I understand is common for infections jumping hosts. Why Covid had such a high transmission ability right from the get go? - if the virus has been developing slowly for some time in a human population, why has not it been detected earlier? - if it happened in the animal population, two points: why it hasn't been detected earlier and found in an extensive search? and even with a "close" animal host, could transmission be so high, right from the outset? - finally, if the natural origin is true, why the obscurity and in the early days, actual coverup? I would be interested to see reasonable, meaningful answers to these in a clear, plain human language before quoting likelihoods and probabilities.