Pellaken

either the PC party will reject the merger or the PC party will vote 90% against harper for leader, but he'll win anyways. either way, you may get 10 or 20 seats in ontario, but east there your chances are little to none.

wonder what he got for that?

oh, I think he existed. 50%+1 of the people on earth follow religions that think Jesus was around (Islam and Christianity) Jesus Christ the man was indeed alive son of joseph

Canada is not socially liberal enough.

tobin steps down is replaced his government goes down to defeat harris setps down is replaced his government goes down to defeat bouchard steps down is replaced his government goes down to defeat heck, even glen clark steped down was replaced and his government was defeated I do not have much hope for Saskatchewan

possible candidates: BC: john reynolds chuck strahl keith martin AB: steven harper stockwell day preston manning dianne ablonczy peter lougheed don getty jim prentice jason kenny monte solberg jim dinner SK: Nobody MB: rick borostick brian pallister ON: mike harris tony clement jim flarahaty janet ecker belinda stronach ken dryden PQ: mario dumont brian mulrooney NB: Nobody NS: peter mackay scott brison PE: pat binns NL: loylla hearn

what are the options for conservative leader? who can do it? lets take a look now provincially: from BC: gordon campbell is the only BC politican with any kind of national profle. I think he's happy with things as-is. AB: Ralph Klien could do well... if he runs. He's endorssed Harris at least 3 times. There are roumers former finance minister Dinning, or Donner, or D, something wants to run. SK: negated, election. MB: all the PC party was able to do here was embarass itself. ON: a few guys here. Flarhity probably wants the provincial job. Clement may go federal, but he's a "loser" from this recent election, and thats not good for any politican. The rest of the ontario crew have a bad rep now and of course, Mike Harris PQ: There are two men here who could run for the job. Jean Charest and Mario Dumont Dumont could do well, and build a national base for the party in Quebec. Charest is what I like to call and Anti-Harris. more on that later. NB: Bernard Lord. the biggest Anti-Harris NS: John Hamm? dont think so PE: Pat Binns? may do well if he tries, but since he dosent speak french, he could not beat Harris NL: election so, we have 2 Anti-Harris' Charest, and Lord. now, federaly CA: Preston Manning Stockwell Day Steven Harper PC: Brian Mulrooney Joe Clark Peter MacKay we cannot have one of these 6. why? simple. it would mean the new party would garner NO votes from one of the 2 parties that marged with it. Out of these 6, Harper is the strongest contender. Thre are more. Brison is a little to left wing. Chandler may be "oK" policy wise, but he's an idiot. Prentice is an unknowen, and as far as I know, dosent speak french. If he does speak french, he may be another Anti-Harris. Ablonczy and Hill are 2 possible contenders. Keith Martin even. Tom Long may return to politics, but I think he'd support Harris. There are a few outsiders too. Ken Dryden's name has been floated around. Belina Stronach too. In the end it comes down to this. Harris wants the job, but he cannot win Quebec. Only a good french-speaking candidate can WIN this next election. They are: Jean Charest Bernard Lord possibly Jim Prentice and Steven Harper unfortunatly, each has a reason why they will not run against Harris Harper, in reality, equals Manning, and Manning equals for the east, what Mulrooney equals for the west. Would you (a western canadian) vote Brian back in? Prentice may be able to pull it off, but he'd need alot of support, and only if he speaks french. The two heavy weights are Bernard Lord and Jean Charest. Charest even has been tarnished by Mulrooney, and may not be the best choice. Lord though is the only one who can do it, but he's affraid. this next election will finish with one of 2 results: Prime Minister Paul Martin or Prime Minister Bernard Lord its up to the people of New Brunswick to decide. Unless they give him the "ok" to go, we are stuck with another 4 years of crappy government

unless someone else setps up to the plate the final round of voting will go thustly: Harper-40% Harris-60%

many in the NDP are socalist we need a mainstreem social party, progressive on the social issues, but something that's centrist on economics.

if the orchardites form a new party, and if people like Grafftey and Nystrom were to join that new party, then that could cause for interesting politcs

we are going back to politics in th 80's and 70's 2.5 parties 2 that do well and an NDP that takes 30-40 seats, and holds the BoP in minority governments

if Harper, Day, Manning. MacKay, Mulrooney, or Clark become leader of the new party, then the new party will fail. Someone who has not led a federal party is needed.

WE NEED A MERGER how's that??

first of all, I made a math error. it should be 30% not 40% (meaning the likely NDP support is only 25%) as for your poll, I dare you to show me a recent poll that has the NDP that insanley low in BC.

no the NDP (and all other parties togethor) would have 40% of the vote without a merger. I dont think its spectacular to assume the greens are at 5% in BC, and I dont think its amazing to think the NDP's at 35% there.

Here is the polling data C=the united right L=the Liberals N=NDP (Calculated Remaining Vote) right side of = is a united right left side of = is the total of CA and PC in the same poll BC C-45=34 L-40=36 N-15=40 * (5% of this is probably Green in reality) AB C-51=65 L-35=17 N-14=18 SKMB C-32=36 L-42=35 N-26=29 ON C-27=29 L-55=57 N-18=14 PQ C-26=7 L-62=51 O-12=42 (Other, probably mostly Bloc with some NDP) ATL C-32=30 L-45=48 N-23=22 Interesting things to note: the NDP would drop like a rock in BC more importantly a united right would CRUSH the Bloc. I think the NDP might make some gains in Quebec due to this, picking up left wing Bloc votes, if not left wing Bloc MP's! also note, there would be a 28 vote split between the Lib's and the Conservatives in Ontario, union or not. a united right would kill the NDP for this election, as left-wing liberals now have a reason to vote Liberal. In future elections IMHO, this would be great for the NDP.

the party wants to ban porn, and terminate the human rights bill. seems pretty right wing to me

my first responce when I heard what happened was "they are soldiers, and sometimes soldiers die. whay do you think soldiers do? go to war and pain pictures?"

if the talks fail, people will hold both parties responsible. plus, momentum will have been lost, and de-momentum will rule the day. The Alliance specifically is in deep doo-doo. Especially in the "soft" west, BC and Manitoba. In Saskatchewan, there were so many ridings the CA barly took, that even a 1% point difference nationally could have swayed 4 ridings. With the Liberal-Gerrymand.... er.... Non-Partisan re-drawing of the ridings in alberta, the Libs could take 4 seats from the edmonton area, or even 6, or more, just from a slight increase in pop vote. While The Alliance will take at least 20 seats from Alberta, and hence retain party status, they may take less then 20 seats in the rest of Canada. The PC Party on the other hand, is riding high in the polls. They may lose out in the west due to the argument over leadership, but they will win in places like Quebec, and the East, which has, on average, more MP's per capita then the rest of Canada. The PC's are also ahead of the Alliance in Ontario. Does that mean the PC's are going to sweep Ontario? Far from it. Also, the 2 parties, togethor, are at about 8% in the polls in Quebec, but if the 2 parties were to unite, the party would be at near 30% in the polls in Quebec. not enough to take any extra seats, but that alone will bump their national polling numbers up, and people like voting for parties with high polling numbers. Alone the Alliance can take about 35 seats, and the PC's about 15. The NDP will almost certainly take 40 seats, as the liberals move farther to the right. The 2 parties CAN unite AFTER the election, and end up with 50 seats... or they can unite NOW, and take 75-90 seats. up to them

if the talks fail, people will hold both parties responsible. plus, momentum will have been lost, and de-momentum will rule the day. The Alliance specifically is in deep doo-doo. Especially in the "soft" west, BC and Manitoba. In Saskatchewan, there were so many ridings the CA barly took, that even a 1% point difference nationally could have swayed 4 ridings. With the Liberal-Gerrymand.... er.... Non-Partisan re-drawing of the ridings in alberta, the Libs could take 4 seats from the edmonton area, or even 6, or more, just from a slight increase in pop vote. While The Alliance will take at least 20 seats from Alberta, and hence retain party status, they may take less then 20 seats in the rest of Canada. The PC Party on the other hand, is riding high in the polls. They may lose out in the west due to the argument over leadership, but they will win in places like Quebec, and the East, which has, on average, more MP's per capita then the rest of Canada. The PC's are also ahead of the Alliance in Ontario. Does that mean the PC's are going to sweep Ontario? Far from it. Also, the 2 parties, togethor, are at about 8% in the polls in Quebec, but if the 2 parties were to unite, the party would be at near 30% in the polls in Quebec. not enough to take any extra seats, but that alone will bump their national polling numbers up, and people like voting for parties with high polling numbers. Alone the Alliance can take about 35 seats, and the PC's about 15. The NDP will almost certainly take 40 seats, as the liberals move farther to the right. The 2 parties CAN unite AFTER the election, and end up with 50 seats... or they can unite NOW, and take 75-90 seats. up to them

I have an idea for a compromise that might work but how the hell am I to get it to the people that need it?

Springer its too bad you werent paying closer attention to my thread on leaders. I asked this same question. lemme take a look... Harris is probably almost a certainy. while eves only got 26 seats in ontario, that's 23 more seats then the PC's a CA have in ontario federally. Harper? I think he'll run MacKay? I think he may take the offer to be temp-leader, and to be sure of being on TV for a month, then risk losing the leadership, and getting nothing. Flarhety? I think he might. He lost Provincially, so I dont really know. Prentice is a good bet. Right Wing PC'ers and Left Wing CA'ers will both support him. Craig Chandler? Possibly. He'd do horribly though. But what about who wont run? Bernard Lord he's just not ready yet Gary Filmon he's busy in BC John Hamm would look bad to leave now Elwin Hermanson same Godron Campbell Same Here's my list: (Yes's and Maybe's) Dianne Ablonczy Grant Hill Brian Pallister David Orchard Jason Kenny Stockwell Day Steven Harper Peter MacKay ___ Flarhety Jim Prentice Craig Chandler Mike Harris Ralph Klien Pat Binns I think that there are some who dont have a real chance on this list. Logically, there are only a few contenders: >Ralph Klien - If he runs >Mike Harris >Jim Prentice - The Con's are not gonna win anyways. Martin is too strong. 5 years as leader of the opposition will put him in a great position to win next time >Steven Harper There are also others who have a good chance >Jason Kenny >Brian Pallister >Pat Binns (who would have the support of most current PC MP's) >___ Flarhety In the end, one of two things will happen. If Klien does not run: Harris will come out on top on the first ballot. The Question will be who is second. If Harper is 2nd, then Harris has it. If Prentice is 2nd, then he will edge Harris out. However, if Klien runs, he will take the leadership no matter who else runs. But from what I can tell, Klien may support Harris, which may make him edge Prentice out...

ah yes, merging threads. never got that one down splitting threads is fun tho! I did that 3 times. then I was removed as Mod... meh anyways, back on topic: the question is who will ask the first question in question period tomarrow?

how the hell did my title, and post, get into this thread?

2 calls, one to the PC Party of Canada, and the other to the Canadian Alliance... both said to "watch newsworld" for any news of a merger the PC's also confirmed talks are ongoing and said this: "we do not know any more then the public, but we are watching newsworld very closley, incase anything happens by the end of the day"