Pellaken

if she can get that last-week-swing, she's got it locked up. Arnold Swartzenegger, John Kerry in Iowa, the Liberal party of Quebec, all got last-week swings. Arnold had 1 scripted debate, and won (by a bigger margin then expected) If Stronach (or her advisors) know what they are doing (and it looks like they do) she may surprise.

Prince Edward Island Wilfred Arsenault Prince Edward Island MLA Michael Currie Prince Edward Island Minister of Development and Technology, MLA Georgetown - Baldwin's Road Mildred Dover Prince Edward Island Minister of Education Wes MacAleer Prince Edward Island MLA Elmer MacFadyen Prince Edward Island MLA / Minister of Community and Cultural Affairs David McKenna Prince Edward Island MLA Peter McQuaid Prince Edward Island Co-Chair Andy Mooney Prince Edward Island MLA / Deputy Speaker Gail Shea Prince Edward Island MLA / Minister of Transportation and Public Works and Minister Responsible for the Status of Women ---- That's quite a list.

since Mrs.Copps will be our new MP from Hamilton, I'd sugest that Mrs.Arar join us, rather then joining the Liberals and crossing the floor as will happen. Would she really want to join the party that sent her husband to Syria, or the one who got him back.

if he promises not to over-turn gay marriage, aborition, or any other logical issues, I might be tempted...

it'll be a while, I have other projects I'm doing, both for and not for school

I am moving the riding of Roberval from "Bloc will win, Libs may upset" to "Bloc will win no matter what" after finding out it's Micheal Gauthier's riding. hence, the Bloc's minimum is raised from 8 to 9

no, but with all the hot air coming from parliament you wouldent know better ... alright YOU come up with a better punchline then

we see the united right in modern light, but what about the past? has something similar ever happend before? yes Provincially in Quebec. for 35 years, the Conservative Party had been out of power. Suddenly, in 1935, a group of Liberals, pro-nationalist, breaks away, and finishes 2nd in the election. The two parties merged. The new name would be the Union Nationale. The Conservatives were recogonized as the larger partner. Maurice Duplisses, leader of the Conservatives (the larger partner in the merger) became leader of the Union Nationale. He was elected Preimier within a year. While, in that originial election, no Nationalist Liberals ran, in elections after they did. (The smaller partner's party lived after the merger because the leader for the larger partner became leader of the new party) however originally, the party (the former smaller party) had a huge impact, but after that election, they were wiped off the map so to recap 2 parties unite leader of larger party becames leader of new party party forms government some members of the former smaller party break away the government of this new party is defeated this new party returns to government (with the same leader) and the smaller party dies off this is history, but if you talk to political scientists trying to predict our 'future' I think you see some similarties. go figure.

I see a pattern from the liberals that leaves me totally befuttled step 1: kick ourselvs in the butt in such a way to help the NDP step 2: repeat step 1 step 3: repeat step 2 step 4: a throne speach to feign to the left step 5: repreat steps 1, 2, 3, then 1 again... why are the liberals leaving themselvs open to attack from the NDP? This is kinda like the head cheerleader asking out the top nerd... something's up.

Harper will lose support for this new party east of ontario Stronach will lose support for this new party west of ontario Clement may lose his seat. your choice. 20 seats here, 20 seats there, or a seatless leader

I have yet to do BC despite that, here are the numbers I have so far a note on how this was done. I went riding by riding, and picked who was going to win. but more importantly I picked (it will be close, and if they dont win, then ___ will win) so for example, in Lethbridge, I said the Tories would win, but the Libs will make a good show of it. Therefore, there is a maximum and minimum for each party along with my guess. If you want the individual ridings and who I said they'd go for, PM me. Ters: Lib 3 = 0-3 Con 0 = 0-1 NDP 0 = 0-1 BC not yet done AB Lib 6 = 3-9 Con 22 = 19-25 SK Lib 5 = 3-6 NDP 5 = 4-5 Con 4 = 3-7 MB Lib 6 = 4-8 NDP 4 = 4-5 Con 4 = 2-5 ON Lib 73 = 53-93 Con 18 = 7-30 NDP 15 = 5-24 PQ Lib 57 = 52-67 BQ 18 = 8-23 NB Lib 7 = 9-4 Con 2 = 1-5 NDP 1 = 0-1 NS Lib 6 = 3-8 Con 2 = 2-4 NDP 3 = 1-4 PE Lib 4 = 3-4 Con 0 = 0-1 NL Lib 5 = 3-6 Con 2 = 1-4 CANADA (without BC) Lib 172 = 130-213 Con 54 = 35-82 NDP 28 = 14-40 BQ 18 = 8-23 I will lessen the variance as the election draws closer.

if Stronach wins you have an interesting situation if Harper wins you have an interesting situation if Clement wins you have an interesting situation lemme explain if Clement wins, he could keep red tories (the ones who stuck with the party) in the party, as well as keep western finge neo-cons in the party as well. Clement would win the most seats out of any of these people. Stronach seems to have the machenery of the PC Party behind her. and I dont mean the 12.2% of the vote, 12 seat, PC Party of 2000. I am talking about the 1984 211 seat, 50% of the vote PC Party. She would capture more, in popular vote, then any one else. But, if she wins, the fringe element leaves the party. Some races in alberta, saskatchewan, and manitoba, and a heck of a lot of races in BC will be very close between the Grits and Tories. Stronach cannot win these seats. Harper would make the remaining red tories leave. Most of the remaining red tories are concentrated in Ontario and the east. As we've seen with Brison and Herron, eastern red tories are willing to work for the libs rather then support the new conservative party. Ontario red tories will likely stay home, while eastern red tories will vote Liberal. on closer examinaiton: the 2 opposing groups are the Red Tories, and the Social-Conservatives. While both agree on economic policy, they vary on social policy. 8% of the Alliance voted against merger with the PC Party. These were mostly Social-Conservatives IMHO. 10% of the PC Party voted agaisnt merger, mostly Red Tories. Some Red Tories are not in the party anymore. Keith Martin, Scott Brison, John Herron, Joe Clark. Some Social-Conservatives are not in the party either, Larry Spencer was kicked out of the new party. If the Red Tories, and Social-Conservatives voted for this new party, it would sweep Alberta totally. It would take all but 2 or 3 ridings in BC, all but a riding or two in Saskatchewan, and half of Manitoba This election, unlike the last 3, Bay Street now has a united alternative to vote for. Financial restrictions may make the new party harder to support though, but this will gain the party in Ontario. Remember, there are more red tories then social-conservatives in ontario. Quebec is another story. The only time the tories have done well here is when they appeal to nationalists, but with the Liberals, and NDP trying to do the same, and the Bloc (which was created to be a quebec nationalist party) fighting like mad, the best idea this election is for the tories to present themselvs as purly federalist. In the east, we have many red tories, but also social-conservatives. If the red tories do not vote for the new party, they will lose seats in BC, Manitoba, Ontario, and the east. if social conservatives do not vote for the new party, they will lose seats in BC, Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan BC is going to be critical this election, and the new party is hard-pressed to find the middle ground. If one group does leave the party, they have some choices. Red Tories can either try to revive the PC Party, or create some other force. They could also turn Liberal. Social Conservatives can join the CHP, or some existing force, or start one of their own, likely sepratist. Worst case scenario for canada? Stronach wins, does not bring red tories back, a large number of social-conservatives leave the party, and join the CHP. Larry Spencer becomes the CHP's house leader. Joe Clark is convinced to run again, and lead a new political party made up of Red Tories. This new party does not hurt the Liberals, but rather hurts the NDP. Result of the election? Paul Martin with more then 250 MP's in his caucus.

sorry, but all your numbers are way off man. I am doing a ribing-by-riding prediction, and will have numbers to you soon.

wow, SC did run in 88. whudda thunkit I dont suppose anyone know's their stance on the reform party? as for the PDA I'd been told about the Liberal aspect, but I dident know they joined the NDP sure explaines what happened to the left-wing of the BC Liberal party. if anyone has any questions, feel free to ask me. I know a fair bit

before I begin, I want to remind you that the explanaiton of this forum allows for discussion on "any aspect of canadian politics" this discusses the historical aspect, and begins with a quesiton: can someone explain to me who/how/why: did Social Credit run federal candidate in 1988? were they registered in 1988? When were they de-registered with eletcan? what was their logo? what ever happened to the WCC? Where did the Confederation of Regions come from? What happened to the united farmers in 1927 in Man? What happened in the 1982 election in alberta, in terms of the WCC and Social Credit who was the representive party of alberta? (were they right-wing, etc) what happened in 1935 in alberta? I thought the united farmers supported Social Credit, yet there are records of them running candidates what was the progressive democratic alliance in BC? what realationship did reform and social credit have in BC?

there's only a month and 15-20some days to go!! here are my thoughts so far the race is getting too little attention. these guys really need to kick it up a notch if they intend to get that post-leadershiprace-boost in the polls, which will be critical to the election. I think Clement's campaign has really fallen off. I wouldent doubt that he's the most popular #2 candidate, but he will not have enough #1's to win the race. I also think most of Clement's people will have put Harper as #2, and that therefore, Harper will win. Not only will Harper win the first ballot, likely 40-30-20, but he will win the 2nd, and final round. Saying that, a few things will happen. There are some right-wingers who are going to be upset with this new party. If Stronach wins, this will only make it worse. In Alberta, BC, Saskatchewan, and to a much lesser degree, the remaining english provinces, we will see the rise of an extremist right-wing party. Perhaps a return of the Confederation of Regions, perhaps the new "National Alternate Party" gaining some ground, or the more likely one, the Christian Heretage Party topping 1% or 2% in the national polls.

Belinda $tronach, ha$ one thing going for her. Thi$ i$ all, nothing more, nothing le$$ Stephen experince Harper, has one experince thing going for him. without this one experince thing, he's nowhere Tony notharper Clement has two notstronach things going for him. he may yet win.

God is God. there is "true God" no "religion" has it right, because no one can know the true intent or want of God. Jesus, Mohammed, Sidharta Guatma (budda) were all nice guys. they were "cool", they were "kind and compassionate" they were "good men" whatever. none of them wanted to destroy earth, they just wanted to warship God as they best saw fit. my belifs are simple. God does not have a series of intracate commandments or wishes. If you have a kind heart, you will go to 'heaven' and if you dont, then you will go to 'hell'. It dosent matter weather you go to church, or mosque every day, if you kill somoene and feel nothing, then chances are that you are going to hell. God, in my opinion, only wants one thing. That is for people to not cause pain to others. Hence, to cause pain to someone else in the name of God is the worst crime of all. Bin Laden, for example. The entirery of both states of Israel and Palistine seem to both think God wants the other dead, and both use the name of God to carry out their own political wants. God wants peace, and more importantly, Love. Think about it, could Love be anything BUT a force created by God himself? I beleive that God lives in another plane of existance. God is everywhere yet nowhere. God is love, God is everything we know to exist. One final thing, God does respect faith. Weather you are Catholic, Protestant, Muslim, Jewish, Confusionist, etc... if you have faith, and with that faith are kind and peaceful, then you have done well in the eyes of God.

the numbers for the new conservative party range from 17% to 25% I think part of the issue is how the question is asked.

PCers will turn Liberal in general but due to strategic voting "In general" will mean, for the most part, the ridings the new tory party wont win anyways. You will not see many 35%-25% ridings for the new tory party. There are some ridings, about 15-20 in ontario, where PC voters will vote for the new party in enough numbers to win. The NDP will gain. there is no longer the fear of the conservative party, and if they keep doing these numbers in the polls (between 25% and 15%) that would be great the "dream" situation for us is a Conservative party with between 25% and 30% of the vote. Why? simple. this is enough votes to stop the Liberals, but not enough to win, and hence, not enough to scare New Democrats. rather New Democrats will see this happening, and vote NDP for 2 reasons that are similar, yet different A- the tories will not do well against the liberals and B- the NDP might win official opposition. This is great for us. the only thing better for us would be for this merger to not have happened. Things will become clear as time drags on.

wrong the stronger the tories get, the more to the center they need to move the farther to the center they are, the more chance you'll risk voting NDP remember, the NDP did their 2 best electons while Brian Mulroney was Prime Minister

I understand where you guys are coming from, and I think some of you understand the point I am making. I just think its... its.... odd when the media decides to focus on this, and not that. Why Scott Peterson? Why Dru Sjodin? Why Elizabeth Smart? Why John Bennet Ramsay? etc... do you know how many other people these things will happen to who will never get the privlage of having an entire nation cry for them? when I die, I will do so alone in a hospital, with my few friends (I am not a social person) beside me. I will not have a nation bawling, or yelling an anger at an injustice. That is what angers me.

this is not a military issue at all. 7 deaths in afghanistan and you (some) want to withdraw? give me a break. 525 americans have died in Iraq (likely more by the time you read this) this (my point) is NOTHING to do with the military, it has to do with the media, and how they decided to focus on this one death. It's like soldiers are not susposed to die, when in reality, we pay them to do just that. (somewhat...)

my point is simple, and I will make it loud and clear why the hell does this guy get all the attention? why does his family get to go on TV and cry. what's so special about him? he secrafised for his country? well pleanty of other people do that every day of their lives working dead-end jobs and never-ending shifts, and when they die they barley get a mention in the media. no crying relatives, that is, of course, IF the death is even mentioned. It's sick, it really is.

and how many non-soldiers have died tragically in the past month?