Pellaken

its -40 in central and eastern canada... does that count? but seriously, I think think that too many rural areas will "turn" NDP. I think its more likely that all 32 toronto ridings will vote NDP then 1 riding in the "outer belt" (not including places like hamilton, oshawa, etc)

crap this will turn into a left-wing party, to suck votes from both the NDP and the Liberals what we need is one big alliance on the left. Red Tories, Greens, heck, we accept people of all colours, we can let in the rainbow alliance... we can become the "MultiColourParty" MCP

Prentice is going to surprise alot of people.

Dean and the "Dumbocrats" will do much better then Bush and the Rapeublicans. The people will be tired of their government using them, Bush will be lucky to hold on to Texas

as to the NDP in the west yes, it was a protest vote for a protest party yes, voting reform was a protest protest yes, voting ALLIANCE was also protest*2 the Tories however are not a protest party. Jack Layton is the Canadian Howard Dean. He will create a Protest Party of the NDP yet.

I want Harper for Leader too if the Liberals "womp" him, it means one thing. the Liberals wont lose. If the Liberals cannot lose, we will see the exact same thing happen, as happens when the Liberals cannot win. A very strong NDP. Unfortunatly, I think the tories are smarter then that. I heard MONTHS ago that the plan was to rally behind Prentice as the anti-harper.

I think Prentice will win. There are more seats in Quebec then there are in BC & Alberta. with the weighting system, Quebec votes are very important. Prentice is very popular in Quebec, among members. at least he was in the PC Leadership vote. When the votes roll in: Harper and Strahl will split the vote in the west. Harper will win out, but the votes Strahl will take are important. Clement and Stronach will split the vote in Ontario. I'm not yet sure which one will take more votes. Quebec, however, will vote for Prentice. I dont think anyone can pose a real threat to him there. Eastern Canada will go to MacKay. If he does not run, Prentice will gain even more votes, as the former PC membership is more fimilar with them then they are with other candidates for the leadership race.

note: who do you think WILL win, not who do you WANT to win.

so where are we now? Prentice is for sure Clement Strahl seem faily certain Stronach MacKay are still fence-sitting and Harper of course. any one I'm missing?

Ontario is Ontario. in the last election, we got what, 5% there? in this election, people are predicting 25% but I will go for 15% according to UBC's election forcaster, if the NDP doubles its vote (or more accuratley, if each other party halvs their vote) the NDP gets 5 times the seats they won in the previous election. You also have to remember, this forcaster does not account for Layton, Broadbent, Masse, or other strong individuals. you also contradict yourself: "Another striking thing I noticed was that where the CA/PCs were strong, the NDP were almost insignificant, usually below 5%." "The NDP are in no position in this country to do better than 20 total...and are facing the very real risk of being obliterated, should the vote polarize." Technically, if the vote polarizes, it will be either pro or anti Liberal, and hence, by your own findings, we should do well in the ridings you dont. Between 1993 and 1997 the NDP's vote sky-rocketed in the east. we may be looking at a similar situation here. in 1984, the NDP won 13 ridings in Ontario, at the time, the province had less seats then it does now. The NDP has won a riding in Quebec in a by-election, and once had a seat in Newfoundland We've had 2 seats in NB, and 6 in NS we've held 7 seats in Manitoba and 10 seats in Saskatchewan we've had an alberta seat, a seat in what is now Nunavut, and one the yukon. we've also held 19 BC seats. That totals 62 seats. We came close to winning Hillsborough/Charlottetown PEI, and held 2 different NL ridings (at different times) BC has gained 4 seats, we should be scaled up 2. That alone is 4 extra seats, bringing us to 66. There are 3 other BC ridings we've come close in, and the riding we won in alberta has been split into 2 peices along with the 13 ridings we won, there are 13 ridings (using modern day boundaries) we've historically come close in This brings us to 83, which seems to be a glass celing for the NDP. I doubt we will ever get above this unless we have a killer election. so, our max's by province, are: NL-2 PE-1 NS-6 NB-2 PQ-1 ON-26 MB-7 SK-10 AB-2 BC-22 TR-2 (territories)

I wish It really depends on a great number of variables. if no one catches fire the NDP will not finish 2nd. as for our seat count, I think getting more then 50 or so is unlikely. I've run many predictions for the tories with their current polling numbers, and they get from 50 to 60 seats every time. I do think if the tories do not pick up steem that it will help the NDP as more people will turn to us as an alternative. as for the Bloc, I'd put them at 18 seats max. I will have a virtual riding-by-riding prediction as the tory polling numbers solidify

I will have a complete prediction once the tories pick a new leader. I am predicting: Lib-45% NDP-20% (mostly gains in Quebec and Ontario) Con-20% BQ-5% Grn-5%

for those who dont know, I am a... somewhat important person in the NDP I think Canadians want change, and whoever can get some real momentum going may end up with 80 more seats then they currently have. I dont know if the tories can do it, but I do have faith the NDP can. We may have 83 ridings by the end of this (if my prediction holds true) lets keep our fingers crossed, eh?

I'm back on a lighter note: I want to know weather you guys think the tories have a real chance to win this go-round, or is the best they can hope for is a strong official opposition to a minority.

short term this is horrible long term, this is great! once the liberals are beat, left-wing liberals will realize what's going on, and come back to us

Springer, I'm sure you heard the phrase that polls are right "19 times out of 20" well there's 19 polls that disagree with you.

For "progressive", read "regressive", since "social progressives" stand for infanticide (abortion), institutionalised racism (affirmative action), disempowerment of women (more affirmative action), and the rescinding of freedom of speech (hate speech laws). regressive? first of all, your not alive untill you are born. you get a birth certificate, not a conception certificate. secondly, affirmative action is counter to the imbed racism in the system. here's a great example. if you have 5 buckets with water in them, and 5 people standing in front of you. If one of them is on fire, then I'd say its fair to throw all the water on him, even though it may not be very "equal" as for hate speach, I dont even have to defend that, its so bluntly obvious that its wrong.

I'm a social progressive. that's something I can never change --note, if this is posted more then once... too bad, it took this long to fix the last post. my internet's REALLY irking me right now--

Stoopid internet...TriplePost.

Stoopid internet...TriplePost.

I voted for Prentice. this merger will only be good to the NDP if the new party does well, and Harper cannot do well. its Prentice, or nobody.

an update to springer's poll, now that more then 5 people have voted Stephen Harper 275 votes (22 %) Jim Prentice 248 votes (20 %) Scott Brison 155 votes (12 %) Bernard Lord 122 votes (10 %) Ken Dryden 110 votes (9 %) Peter MacKay 92 votes (7 %) Tony Clement 34 votes (3 %) Jim Dinning 15 votes (1 %) Other 201 votes (16 %)

springer I'll be blunt and I've said this to quebecois this nation is centered in Ontairo if you dont like it, leave already! Harper IS the Alliance. the Alliance cannot win in the east THEREFORE Harper cannot win in the east. it wouldent make a difference if he had 20 billion dollars, spoke 90 languages, was as captivating as JFK, and looked like fabio. He's the leader of the Canadian Alliance, and that's enough to ensure that he will not win in Quebec or Ontario

Prentice is now Harper's main competition, but Harper's the #1 this time, as opposed to being #2 VS harris. Harper is knowen. he's liked in the west, and is "ok" in ontario. but he is not liked in Quebec or the east. Prentice is not knowen in Quebec or the east, and therefore has a better chance to win seats come election time. Also, as a former PC'er, It wouldent look so much like a takeover. Harper can win 65-70 seats in the west, and 20 seats in the rest of Canada Prentice can win 60 seats in the west, and 45-50 seats in the rest of Canada

"Many people in the east don't even know Harper" all we remember is that soon after getting his job, be insulted us. Harper is the most qualified person for the job who wants it. unfortunatly as the LEADER of the larger party in this merger, he's got too much baggage to pick up votes. Money? yes. votes? no.