westcoast99

The CPC will maintain all but 1 or 2 seats in BC. And those losses will likely go to the Liberals.

The sample sizes range from 800-2000. I don't know the regional breakdowns provincially, sorry.

I have no doubt they will likely double their popular vote, but picking up more than 2 seats doesn't seem realistic. If anything, increased NDP vote will only lead to a split on the left, giving the CPC more seats.

This is really quite wishful thinking. For example: The Conservatives in BC are last, not first, of the three main parties, according to the last poll: CPC 27% last Lib 33% first NDP 29% second It's not really wishful thinking at all. We got 50% in BC last time. Pre-election polls mean nothing! Also, BC is in a three way race now. Once the election comes, the Liberals will go down, and CPC will go up. Do you really think that we're going to lose seats where we got over 70% of the vote last time? The NDP may be at 30% in BC. 30% in every riding doesn't translate to a single seat, whereas the CPC is at 30% in BC, but at 50% + in the seats we won, and 10-20% in the seats we lose. Understand? We're still going to sweep BC.

The 15% is a rough number. Also, the last poll I saw showed the NDP at 12% in Atlantic Canada.

The Tories have some time to work for a government, although it's clear: the Conservatives must win the majority of the seats in Ontario for a majority government.

Ekos -- Feb 28-04 Lib: 42% CPC: 32% NDP: 15%

I agree with Pell that it's unlikely we'll see any coalitions formed.

The NDP is at 12% in the polls. The CPC is at 25%, without a leader or policies.

Con gains across the country seem likely.

Your dismissal of Ms. Stronach as a credible candidate appears sexist.

He was very impressive. At this point, we have a risk-free leadership race and I would be very happy to support Harper as leader, and Prime minister should he win.

I don't see there being any clear winner in Ontario in the early rounds.

You're correct, he has the vast majority of the CA establishment behind him. However, the Alliance is a western based organization, and the process favours a national candidate.

Her entrance into the race would be nothing but good news.