Vancouver King

...or how global warming and a PM in the pocket of big oil play out together in the coming election.

Should be quite interesting to see the measured effects, if any, on party popularity due to some recent events. Today we are told the country lost 55,000 jobs in July, the dollar has sunk to 93 cents and last week housing prices actually declined in Canada. Unlike the Cadman, Bernier, Mulroney and Elections Canada affairs - which largely command the attention of political junkies - these new events hit squarely on Main Street and will be noticed by voters like a kick in the wallet. Flaherty must be imploring the gods to spare the economy another quarter of contraction otherwise the "r" word is in play in the rapidly approaching election. It's hard to see today's economy, and it's near term outlook, as anything but a liability for Stephen Harper.

It took all of 10 seconds in the main article to find the major flaw. The provincial samples in no way represent their actual population weights within the country. Conservative B.C. gets 350 samples from a total of 1,050 - triple its actual number - and the West overall has 450 of the total. Hardly represenative and apparently designed to pump the CPC numbers. Polling should be left to the pros.

The last major national poll showed only one Quebec voter in six - thats 1 in 6 - intends to vote Conservative. Whats Yo Harper's plan to undo this damage?

If the forthcoming by-elections yield 2 or more Liberal seats a Fall 2008 general election is a safe wager as that result would tend to confirm recent favorable polling and amount to momentum. Dion's Green Shift will be sold as a tax on polluters - neatly puting the Conservatives as defenders of those same polluters. The opposition might never have a more favorable window to take the plunge.

The Canadian dollar will be $1.25 by Xmas. You read it here first.

Your Green friend has good cause to be concerned. Despite savaging by the PM and a campaign of focused msm commercials, the available evidence suggests, on balance, Dion's Green Shift has impressed more voters than it's alienated. In so far as the Green Party can be defined as a single-issue organization, it would appear the Liberal success allows them to drain some of it's soft, climate-related support. Whatever the damage to the Green Party save any pity of this type for the Conservatives: devoid of any meaningful green policy when climate change is THE penultimate issue of our times. It must be karma that their only clearly defined policy area - law & order - has now been neutered by a report showing crime down substantially.

"...in his quiet and courteous way." Is this the same courteous PM that referred to the opposition leader's green plan as a recipe for "screwing" the country?

The astonishing decline in support could also be fallout from the Bernier affair. Incompetence by a favorite son might not sit well with a proud province.

Would the last Tory in Quebec kindly turn out the lights? Quebec breakdown: Bloc - 37% Liberal - 25 Conservative - 17 NDP - 11 Green - 9

Jack Layton runs a parking lot. Once the next campaign heats up expect legions of small L liberals to cast ballots on a strategic basis for Dion's Libs - leaving the socialist lot half empty.

Here's another not so funny development in the eco wars that has political implications for those on the wrong side of the global warming issue. Will lining them up against the wall eventually be an option? "In testimony before the US Congress on Monday, James Hansen, a leading climatologist, called heads of major energy companies criminals who should be prosecuted for spreading false and misleading information about the threat posed by global arming. Hansen, Director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, testified before the House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming to mark the 20th anniversary of his initial appearence before Congress in 1988. "CEOs of fossil energy companies know what they are doing and are aware of the long-term consequences of continued business as usual. In my opinion, these CEOs should be tried for high crimes against humanity and nature." (this link doesn't seem to work:

Yet the second choice poll above shows NDP and Green voters clearly favor the Liberals as an alternative choice. This demonstrates an aversion to Conservative govt; ie. it's scary agenda. It must throw fear into Tory hearts to realize the Liberals can grow their support significantly through strategic voting. Sitting with 10-15% less support than at the last election and little prospect for expansion, Harper runs a govt in trouble.

Perhaps the feds should supply a list of potential claimants, then smart entrepreneurs could trace these people - for an appropriate fee of course - just as has been done for decades with unclaimed bank balances. It's a win/win situation: rightful parties get the bulk of money coming to them and amateur dick traceys earn interesting fees.

Hmmm.....according to Crop the Bloc is 1st at 31% and CPC 2nd at 28% - did the CPC gain another 4% overnight? Don't let that deter you, compared to the Nanos numbers Crop found 2 extra New Democrats for each one counted 5 days earlier. Guess it boils down to credibility...

Really, where is your source for above? The latest posted poll shows NDP support in Quebec in free fall - from 13% down to 5% - a staggering drop of 60% month over month. Liberal support was gauged at 22%, more than 4 times the NDP number. Of the 3 main parties only the Bloc benefited from this crash, now back to traditional levels at 40%. Hard to imagine Harper's action of promoting Bernier will have any result other than a hit to Conservative Quebec numbers.

No disputing the latest Nanos poll numbers as they pertain to Tory fortunes in Quebec. The Bloc has surged back to 40% with Conservatives now running neck and neck with the Liberals at about half that. This Bernier business, bearing in mind his appointment was a prominent sop to the province, should serve to place Harper and company comfortably in third place - just ahead of the NDP. Seems like only weeks ago that you and other august right wingers were savoring a forthcoming Quebec sweep. What happened?

I can only hope Emerson, in a moment of confidence, seeks another term in a Vancouver constituency. Do candidates still lose their deposits for embarrassing results, Michael? If so, score his attempted re-election as one for the treasury.

How to explain the govts dismal showing. The Elections Canada debacle is certainly a factor, however, peel away the myriad controversies and the single, glaring issue that remains is Harper's indifference to issues of great importance to Canadians: global warming, environmental degradation and the resulting hits to Canada's international reputation. With Harper in the pocket of big oil, his Environment ministry silent while oil sands development turns vast tracks of Alberta into wasteland and, incredibly, the PM scolds motorists who hope for relief at gas pumps. Fight an election over a carbon levy? Dion might never find a more favorable battlefield.

Harper a Nazi? At best that's an exaggeration in poor taste. That he now subscribes to the Red China/Zimbabwe model of govt elections and communications to the masses is much closer to the truth. And why not? We presently endure the spectacle of an "independent" govt agency like Stats Can telling us that prices have risen an insignificant 1.7% when every Canadian buying gasoline, food or a home knows it is laughable nonsense. Harper merely proposes to go the next step - adjust every disconcerting fact by controlling all govt info. Seems to work in Beijing. Ah yes, reality according to Chairman Harper - why worry, be happy.

What a difference a month makes. From a double digit lead to 3% - and that assumes Tory support has bottomed over the RCMP raid affair. Economic storm clouds on the horizon ensure additional pressure on Tory support, confirming the truism, "Tory times are tough times". Perhaps the biggest surprise in this poll is the NDP at 20%. If gas hits $2.25 and a loaf of bread goes to $4, look for this support level to increase as working voters juggle household budgets.

This latest poll was conducted April 10 - 13th well before the fallout from the RCMP raid on Conservative headquarters. I am no expert but suspect the raid will knock another 3% off the Tory numbers. Tonight CBC's At Issue panel made an interesting point on decreasing women's support for Tories. The party's belligerent, aggressive response to all controversial issues - particularly thumbing it's nose at Elections Canada - does not sit well with feminine sensibility. It must be tempting for Dion to pull the plug.

I think I speak for many Conservatives here when I state categorically that the subject tape has been doctored.

The wild disparity between current polls begs an explanation from the polling companies releasing these numbers. Separate polls conducted during the same period show an 8% difference in govt support. Which pollster has flawed methodology? Are the questions somehow loaded? Why don't pollsters conduct a poll on polling? Question one: Do you believe in the integrity of political polling? The probable 75% "no" response explains why the question will never be asked.

Politically, a declining dollar along with the arrival of tough times later this summer will do what the Cadman affair, the Mulroney affair and Naftagate failed to do - make a significant, perhaps fatal dent in Tory popularity.