Vancouver King

No mistaking the fat lady is warming her vocal chords. Perhaps voters on the left might consider the Liberal collapse as an oppourtunity to apprentice Layton as Leader of the Opposition. No strategic voting now needed, a sea change in the country's politics is now possible.

Do you refer to the same socialism now in practice stateside? You know, the pinko/commie brand where the govt takes over private enterprise and the public purse bails out bankers and speculators? Oh I forgot, only massive commercial losses are socialized, profits remain private.

Unfortunately, Politics 101 tells us the undecided breakdown exactly as the decided do. The outcome of this election will be decided in Quebec. If the CPC manages major gains there despite it's core policies running contrary to values held by most Quebec voters - and current polling says it is going to - it will constitute one of the greatest campaigning achievements I've ever witnessed.

Sorry, Dobbin, no sense in attempting a back pedal, you are already on record predicting anhiliation for the Liberals and the biggest majority for Harper in human history. The new Nanos numbers suggest both major parties are exactly where they were on election night 2006. Expect further Green/NDP support melting into Dion's column. You, of all people, should know that Canadian elections seldom end the way they start. If you quickly pull yourself together, regular readers will probably overlook your unreasonable projection as merely a premature ejac-election.

No I studiously ignored your question about Nanos' accuracy since you seem quite capable of doing your own research. Your prolific output in this site tells me you certainly have the time. Whether Nanos arrived at it's 2006 prediction by examining the entrails of birds or employing superior methodology, the fact is the firm accomplished near perfection in political polling. Since you claim to have some understanding of math, work out the probabilities - even the order of magnitude - of that 2006 accomplishment. Then you can post your apology for denigrating a once in a lifetime achievement.

How quickly you embrace mediocrity. Why average also-rans into some 'consensus' when one oracle towers over the rest? Opinions based on proven information carry much more weight than those based on failure. This Nanos poll has a greater message than the the 3-way race in Quebec, the firming NDP showing or the disappearing Tory vote in the Maritimes. The Liberal national number up 5% over 2006 confirms suspicions that the impending election call was based on a degree of CPC desperation and not the usual in-control Harper strategy. Our PM running scared - what an unusual image.

You recently asked what must the CPC internal polls show. The Nanos results above represent exactly what the Tory braintrust was also viewing when they made the decision to plunge into an election. Faced with unfavorable numbers and coupled with Harpers desperate explanation for calling the election, an observer could reasonably conclude that the CPC hierchy was fully convinced that even worse numbers awaited them if they delayed longer allowing the Opposition to make it's move or by honoring their own fixed election date. What else explains Harper's rush to the polls in the face of such unpopularity?

You want the Nanos numbers you got the Nanos numbers. To clear any confusion these are the folks who predicted all 5 major party totals to within one hundreth of one per cent of the actual outcomes in 2006. With other polling results all over the map it is comforting to have a snapshot of political preferences that can be counted on. Liberals - 35% Conservatives - 33% NDP - 17% Bloc - 8% Greens - 7% Welcome to reality, Wild Bill. http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls...T-SU08-T315.pdf

In this thread 3 weeks ago Decima had Tory Quebec support at 17%. Ipsos Reid above has it now at 30%. What explains an 80% increase in CPC support in less than a month? Harper pumped another billion into the province? Maxine Bernier got a new girlfriend? Where are the Nanos numbers when we need them.

When asked by the bankers what collateral he can summon he need only say, "I am the leader of the country's natural governing party", and a blank cheque will be quickly placed in front of him.

The article raises an interesting possibility: What if GG Michaelle Jean looked Harper straight in the eye and said, "Mr. Prime Minister, given that you passed a fixed election date which would seem to apply to the current circumstances and combined with your government's record of considerable legislation passed, I am left a loss to understand your need for a renewed mandate other than political expediency. It is, therefore, my decision to call on the Leader of the Opposition to form a govt that will take the nation to Oct., 2009."

Storm clouds on the horizon? A statistical tie with negative outlook? Go now and make up ground during the campaign? You can wager the internal polls are a sobering read.

Fired off a cheque today to the national NDP. I didn't have the heart to tell them if polls indicate the Tories are anywhere near majority territory come election day, I along with legions of other supporters will be abandoning ship by placing a strategic vote for the Liberals.

It is a given that all major published polling firms conduct interviews strictly on a basis that reflects the actual population profile of the province. Anything less would be unscientific. Do you have any proof that Ipsos-Reid or Nanos, among others, are deliberately misleading their clients and the public, or is this another example of blowing smoke?

There is a whiff of Tory blood in the air. Now reduced to a mugs game of how bad will it get, the Tory brain trust has made the decision to roll the dice sooner than later. Who can blame them? The 300 pound gorilla sitting in the corner of the PMO is the unfolding economic dislocation - a direct result of America's housing and credit collapse. There is a developing consensus that the worst is yet to come stateside - perhaps 3 million more homes in foreclosure and another major bank near insolvency - with huge and delayed implications for the Canadian economy. Trampling their own fixed election date law is eminently more attractive than braving the hustings in the middle of a 2009 recession of uncertain depth. The country will have a new govt by Christmas.

Adding another bi election, threatening to precipitate an election, pronouncing the Commons dysfunctional....anything now goes that will serve to shake up his current political prospects. Such a cruel fate, the man in absolute control of events now buffeted by ill winds on all sides; the economy, declining polls, Obama and the tragic realization that he is running out of time. Our PM doesn't wear desperation well.

I always suspected Jimmy Carter was in the pockets of peanut farmers...

This appointment sems in conflict with the law and order gang. Why are CPC supporters here strangely silent?

I wasn't aware of such a notion. Is this grouped in with the axiom, "Tory times are tough times?"

The results cannot be skewed if a representative cross-section of voters is interviewed. This includes interviews in areas that reflect the actual population makeup of the province. If voters are interviewed in numbers reflecting the actual population, how are the numbers skewed?

Not quite, more a circle of 1050 representative voters who just confirmed recent trends away from the governing party. Harper's Quebec strategy lies in shambles, Ontario now favors Dion by 10% and the minor parties on the left command virtually 3 of 10 voters - a probable wellspring of strategic votes in the unlikely event Harper manages to staunch the bleeding. Harper is no fool, he can read the numbers and trends like anyone else, a recession on his watch coupled with a shrinking calendar conspire to make him a desperate man.

I have never seen a poll where respondents have replied in the affirmative that they want an election. Not once. Never. I wouldn't be at all surprised to learn that such a poll does not exist.

...Or desperate bluster by a PM accustomed to absolute control but now facing the daunting prospect of defeat in the Commons.

Don't sweat it. The Liberals will pull the plug within weeks, once 2 of 3 Sept. bi election wins are confirmed and the House sits. Establish a working relationship with Obama? After Harper attempted to sabotage his presidential candidacy by leaking NAFTA-related communications? Obama is undoubtedly a new style politician, however, you can wager that bit of meddling by the PM's office will not go unrewarded. The "Yo Stephen" chumminess to America's most despised president - including mimicking contemptible American-style off-election attack ads and a new emphasis on militarism - are secondary to knock-out importance of a shared policy with Washington Republicans: that pumping a trillion tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere has no effect on climate and global warming. Add in the unfolding recession in Central Canada - all a result of American conservative policies - and a slam dunk for Dion seems inevitable.

And so it begins. The inexorable march back to office by the now-humbled but now-hungry Liberals plus - and could anyone have contemplated this six months ago - the tough process for Tories of replacing Stephen Harper who will have lost one too many elections, a victim of his own belligerence. Time has caught up to the Conservatives, it is doubtful there remains enough time to turn around the Ontario and Quebec numbers in the context of additional dismal economic news to come in those two regions. Let the post mortem begin and let the unofficial CPC leadership contest commence.