Vancouver King

SC's predicted double digit spread between the main parties was twice the actual outcome. Contrast that to the performance of other pollsters in Jan., 2006, such as Nanos which predicted the outcome for all 5 major parties TO WITHIN ONE-HUNDRETH of a percentage point. Better still, contrast their March, 2008 numbers to every other respected polling firm - all show a spread between Tories and Libs of less than half SC's results. I repeat, there is an agenda in play that has little to do with the objective measurement of public opinion.

The Strategic Counsel is the same group that forecast - 48 hours before the last election - that Harper was headed for a landslide of epic proportions. That CTV trumpets their nonsense on the evening news says loads about the networks new mission statement and less about journalistic objectivity.

Stephen Harper's political instincts are slipping. Two weeks before the Quadra vote the PM was in Vancouver and deliberately snubbed his own candidate - not a single photo op, not even a quick limo trip to the campaign office for free exposure on the evening news. The Tory media continues to question Dion's judgement over parachuting candidates yet here is a stark example of Harper's ineptitude - the elusive and cherished urban break through was sacrificed to the PM's petulence.

Christy Clarke, analyst on CTV's coverage last night, made an interesting point: With Findlay and Rae joining Ignatieff on the front benches, the party can promote the Liberal brand in a campaign as a team approach to govt. - a distinct contrast to the one man Tory show we have now.

......and let's not forget that constant measure of Tory futility: Canada's largest three cities remain a wasteland for Harper - still not a single seat in Toronto, Montreal or Vancouver.

CTV coverage made much of the very close results in Vancouver Quadra. Determined to explain this, I conducted my own unscientific exit poll between 7PM and 9PM. To my astonishment, 29% of respondents felt that since every house in the riding is now worth in excess of $1 million and average family incomes exceed $115,000; they took a leap of faith and calculated they were rich enough to vote Conservative.

There are other compelling reasons for the Opposition to hesitate before plunging into a Spring vote. You have frequently touched on one: the longer Dion has to apprentice the more professional will be his performance. Already his English shows improvement and his questioning in the House now has a more appropriate air of indignation. More time should show further improvement. The addition of several high profile MPs to the Liberal front bench can only be a positive factor for the Liberal Party as is a less obvious one: The impending economic downturn is beyond Harper's control and for a PM that micro manages every nuance of his government's policy and communications, establishing the agenda with a tight focus will give way - as it did with the Mulroney hearings - to reacting to events.

Dion is crazy if he pulls the plug over the budget when the simple passage of time will deliver Harper's head on a platter. Prop up the Tory minority at all costs and in six months - when the nations economy lies in shambles - let Harper explain to the electorate why Ottawa is then running budgetary deficits and that the tough times are all the fault of American conservatives.

Harper's sudden brinkmanship over confidence motions - Afghanistan or law & order - can best be understood as a Tory desire to go the polls sooner than later. The gravity of the unfolding economic debacle stateside and it's eventual political implications for a Canadian govt fighting an election in the middle of a nasty recession has not been lost on Harper.

Why bog the forum down with more of your personal attacks? Since you judge a 3-4% decline in Liberal numbers as a portent of coming electoral disaster on a biblical scale, what must you think of the latest Tory melt of 6%? Mulroney's indiscretions, global warming, execution of Canadians abroad and isotopes have conspired to whack your party with a decline which might in fact turn out to be a seismic shift towards the Official Opposition. Make an effort to compensate for the Tory's new second-party status with something other than additional vindictive drivel.

Under the current proposal the House would go to 330 and if McGuinty was granted his additional 10 seats that totals 340 MPs, no province loses seats and, at least temporarily, the fast growth regions have something approximating rep by pop. Why do we need 500 MPs?

Oh the optics: Suggested Liberal Party between elections ad: Background: flash Mulroney/Harper schmoozing at various times and events including the PM's official residence and voice over begins. "Brian Mulroney admits he accepted $300,000 in cold hard cash from Schreiber. Mr. Schreiber states this transfer of this cash involved installments of $100,000 given to Mr. Mulroney in shopping bags in rooms at various international hotels." "If these cash payments were not connected with bribery over an Airbus contract, why did the former Conservative PM accept bags full of cash instead of a normal cheque? What did the Tory PM do with $300,000 in paper cash? Take it to his bank? What was the bank's reaction? Did he instead hide it in his mattress and spend it on groceries? Why did he declare the cash as income only after the existence of these clandestine payments came to light?" The possibilities are endless. So the Tories think they have perfected the negative tv ad. Pass the Liberal hat and get some variation of the above into the marketplace asap.

And so it begins. Fresh on the heels of an upbeat national SES sounding, CROP records the inevitable melting of govt support in Quebec over that province's increased oppostion to war, jolted into sharp focus by death within the province's Van Doos. Remember this turning point, hindsight might declare this was when Tory hopes for a majority were laid to rest.

A heartening report card for Harper from the country's most dependable oracle. The measured 4 point jump is huge in a business where tiny fractions of increase are heralded as undeniable trends. A govt adrift? Not according to these latest SES numbers.

Both portfolios continue to be millstones around Harper's neck. Changing the messengers is no substitute for changing govt policy. The voters might view this govt as now lacking direction, the same electorate, however, is still fully aware that Conservatives remain on the wrong side of two huge issues: Afghanistan and climate change.

Yes, they're so poor that if an election were held today, they might win only a minority. The latest numbers make clear that another fatal incident, this time one involving Van Doos and body bags risks a Quebec media frenzy that will effectively shut down Conservative chances in the province. At 16%, the party has a steep uphill battle to hold it's current 10 seat rump - with a military disaster involving the province's fabled regiment, Harper can write the province off.

Survival dictates the mouse must keep a wary eye on the elephant, even if that elephant is way past it's prime - now courting catastrophe with, for example, a trillion of it's dollars held by a single Communist dictatorship. Like the US? My first political memories were of Atlanta, circa late Eisenhower 50's, when our family - transferred to an American military base - motored along highways thick with billboards announcing such messages as "all white-staffed gas station ahead" and included my RCAF father brought up on charges for drinking out of a "blacks only" fountain. What was to like? However, true to it's materialism, new Impalas could be had for $1,999US. Flash forward a half century to 2007. The same Republican mind set - they are not white therefore they are expendable - and the same materialism - secure oil/gasoline for every 3 car family stateside at any human cost, drives America to destroy a nation it was "liberating" while simultaneously thumbing it's nose at the almost certain reality that the planet is dying because of it's excesses. What's to like? More to the point, what's to like in a Canadian PM that emulates this life style, right down to the Deep South, good 'ol boy icon of NASCAR?

And the bottom line? Conservatives consolidate the Bubba vote. This has a 'construction workers for Ronald Reagan' flavor to it. And that's bad why? Does every party have to cater to the mass media and to university professors?I'm educated myself, but I have no problem with appeal to the masses. Bad? Why must every comment be weighed as pro or con to your party's cause?

"This website is the property of the Conservative Party of Canada and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without express written permission. Copyright © 2006 Authorized by the Registered Agent of the Conservative Party of Canada." Link hmmmm....that would appear to settle this little dust up.

It is unlikely the Greens will hold their 10%+ polling numbers in the next election. Between elections the party is a convenient parking lot for those anxious to demonstrate their environmental bona fides or register other protests against the major parties. Strategic voting will prevail over wasted votes once a campaign is underway. If it is true they currently draw from the NDP and Liberals any melt in their current percentage can be expected to return to these same two parties. A similar dynamic affects the NDP - but unlike the Greens will not approach one-half of polling numbers. In this latter case the beneficiary is largely the Liberal Party and this strategic voting by soft New Democrats will be most pronounced if the Tories near majority territory.

Fair enough. But when the Conservatives reach out to urban women again, the target voters will focus on that policy. Not on NASCAR. NASCAR solidifies the rural basis. Could come in handy in Saskatchewan among other places. And the bottom line? Conservatives consolidate the Bubba vote. This has a 'construction workers for Ronald Reagan' flavor to it.

There will be no election in Fall, 2007, and the reason is simple: Canada's new Afghan exit strategy has nothing to do with defeat of the Taliban or other military considerations, rather, Harper's govt, the military and the press -read CTV - were unable to mould public opinion around acceptance of this nation's role in the Afghanistan war. Harper's pointed emphasis on no renewal beyond 2009 without opposition blessing signals acceptance by Tories of a harsh reality: No parliamentary majority is possible while the party remains on the wrong side of this issue. Expect results from this new Liberal-like stance to show in 2008.

Half the posts on this site do exactly that. Dion must redouble his efforts to learn conversational English - Harper successfully took a crash program in French. Decency and integrity are not enough, only fluent bilingualism will qualify a contender. Btw, I forgot to mention another storm cloud on the horizon for Tories. The latest manifestation of Quebec's nationalist agenda will be a demand to open up medicare into a formal two tier system. This has the potential to be huge. Montreal, already home to numerous private clinics, is poised to lead the nation in for-profit medicine. I cannot see any upside for the federal govt on this issue. It must be galling for Tories on the heels of pumping extra billions into the province - probably at the cost of lost votes elsewhere - only to be rewarded with an impossible medicare issue. Early prediction: another point or two shaved off the Conservative total.

Trend downward? Statistical tie? All these selective comments ignore the Liberal's ongoing weakness. Haven't heard anything about why Dion can't take and hold a lead. Shouldn't the Liberals be in majority territory now given how badly the Conservative's are governing? I can only guess at the agony attendent with rolling that last sentence off your lips. In the competition for hearts and minds the party led by one barely able to communicate to 80% of the governed nonetheless holds stubbornly to it's 31% share of last election's results. In contrast, the govt, far from building momentum using the advantages of power, finds itself losing on the challenges of Afghanistan and the environment. Rightly or unfairly, Harper addressing a global warming meeting is perceived a little like a hooker attending a church social. The predictable Canadian value of we are all in this together is trumped by our knowledge that the speaker's first responsibility is towards big oil.

Same old, same old again. Back within the margin or error and a statistical tie. Agreed, it seems more of the same, that is, Tories slowly trending lower. The Bloc's recently predicted demise seems greatly exaggerated as it was the only party of the main four to increase support. Should be interesting to see if SES's newest numbers confirm this shift in Quebec.