Vancouver King

Why will this election be the exception to the rule that says undecided voters breakdown exactly as decided voters do?

So you believe the platform document represents a knockout punch?

An unrepentant neocon that took every opportunity to endear himself to Washington Republicans. Remember the 2006 election, when he finished every major speech with "God Bless Canada"? Now with American financial contagion infecting the globe, our PM wants nothing to do with the lame ducks and dinosaurs in the American capital. I guess the imperative of reelection trumps ideology. I've heard several analysts use the word decency to describe Dion but never heard it once regarding Harper. Our PM, on the other hand, is easily described as ruthless. Sure, anything is possible. I doubt his program speech today put brakes on opposition momentum. My reading of the tea leaves says Harper & Co. will soon be occupying the opposition benches.

Now it's my turn to admit I'm wrong. I predicted a Harper minority but I'm changing that right now to a Dion minority on the basis of these new Nanos numbers: CPC 34% Libs 31 NDP 18 Bloc 11 grn 6

The quest for majority govt is over. The expectation of Tories bettering their 2006 showing lies in shambles. The PM's adamant refusal to display public empathy toward nervous Canadians - even if it amounts to an empty hand holding gesture - reduces the campaign question to this: can what's left of CPC momentum allow it a photo finish over rejuvenated Liberals?

ok, ok....the widget said I should vote for whoever I please since the Tories are not a factor here - this is David Emerson's old riding where the CPC drew 13% of the vote in 2006. However the omniscient widget did confirm something I suspected; a current dead heat here between the NDP and Liberals. If current national trends continue this seat will be a gain for the NDP.

Today's latest Nanos poll: CPC - 34% Libs - 29 NDP - 21 Bloc - 11 Grn - 6 Only change is NDP nibbling away at Liberal support. CBC said today Layton's gang will flood the airwaves with $7 million worth of new anti-Harper ads in the final week. The Liberals can only dream of such fund raising prowess. http://www.nanosresearch.com/election/CPAC...ber-6-2008E.pdf

The fat lady, sensing an irreversible seismic shift taking place across the landscape, begins - for the second time - to warm her vocal chords. Interesting details from the new Harris-Decima numbers above: The NDP is tied, within the margin of error, with Conservatives in Ontario. The NDP now leads all other parties by 5% in Atlantic Canada. Conservatives in Quebec are stuck at sub-20% levels. B.C., where new trends are supposed to originate, remains solidly Conservative.

Dobbin, you seem driven to justify an early but inaccurate prediction of a decimated Liberal party. Don't sweat it, you have lots of company in this forum, Liberals as well as Tories. I mentioned to you a couple of weeks ago that national elections in this country seldom end the way they start and this campaign now appears to carry on that tradition. My own prediction of another Tory minority might yet prove too generous for the Conservatives. http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....st&p=334825 Absolutely, and his decision to take the plunge before the opposition made the decision for him was great politics. Controlling the agenda while pushing his rivals off balance. Avoiding less than flattering comparisons to a possible Obama presidency. But far and away more important than any other factor was this: If he waited until October, 2009, there was every reason to believe that America, and soon after Canada, would be mired in a very deep recession. No govt wants to fight a campaign with that as a backdrop. Some of us emphasized the severity of what is coming and the importance to the Tory brain trust of avoiding it by going early. A recent tip-off of the scale of carnage most certainly on it's way is the Bank of Canada's emergency pumping of an additional $12 billion into our banks, those same institutions that are supposedly the envy of the world. Bastions of liquidity don't need infusions of this magnitude. Middle class Canadians, used to ever higher real estate prices and a booming TSX, now have a glimmer of the economic specter on the horizon, a once in a century downturn that will demand all the policy imagination we can muster and compassion for it's economic victims. Harper has a week to convince voters he should be the man to preside over this soon-to-be-shattered economy.

Conservative lead now 4%. This is the wrong trend for the governing party. Nanos today: CPC 34% Libs 30% NDP 19 Bloc 10 Grn 7 http://www.nanosresearch.com/election/CPAC...ber-5-2008E.pdf

The softening Tory support over the past few days makes it increasingly unlikely they will achieve a majority and this, in turn, makes it 'safer' to follow ones first preference. That said, it is likely that 20% of the minor parties current support will end up with the main combatants - I suggest roughly 80% to Liberals.

That's an easy one, Stephen Harper will simply bribe sufficient new MPs to break the tie.

The loss of 3 seats in NL might be a harbinger of worse news to come for Tories the evening of Oct. 14. There is a huge reservoir of potential strategic votes nationally (40%+) all stacked to the left of Harper's forces. If they cascade it will be directly into the Liberal column.

Conservative support rachets down again. The fat lady has thundered back on the stage. "Harris-Decima president Bruce Anderson says the latest results suggest Tory hopes for a majority are dimmer than at anytime since the campaign began a month ago". Cons 34% Libs 24 NDP 20 Grn 13 Bloc 8 http://www.thestar.com/FederalElection/article/512116

Here is just released Canadian Press-Harris-Decima poll, the third consecutive sounding showing the Conservatives down to 35% support: "Conservative majority slipping away, poll indicates." Cons 35% Libs 22 NDP 20 GRN 13 Bloc 9 Support for the 3 minor parties - those who can't bring themselves to vote for Conservatives or Liberals - is astonishing, a combined 42% of decided voters.

I've heard two analysts on CBC say Dion is running for the prime ministers job and would resign if faced with anything less. This will unleash another leadership race within the party and it is a safe bet Liberals will opt for a proven product next time around - Ignatieff. Actually Nanos has had the Liberals at 26% since last month, todays new numbers show a 4% increase over last months figure, not 6%. The "Kumbya" vote is already morphing. The same poll shows a dead heat in Ontario, not conducive to sufficient extra CPC seats there to offset the stalemate in Quebec. The landscape has minority govt written all over it. This is all happening, of course, with barely 10 days left in the campaign. It is interesting to view the Ipsos poll also released today and posted above. In 2006, with only 3 days left to election day, Ipsos had the Liberals 4% down from their actual election total days later. If the same methodology (bias?) exists in its results today, add that same 4% and you essentially have confirmation of the newest Nanos numbers.

"stupidest ploy, "slinging mud", my oh my, sounds like direct hits are being taken by the Big Blue machine. Tories should hope todays drop in the polls reflects Harper's poor performance in the debates and not the first plagiarism scandal. If it's the latter this latest expose is going to really hurt.

I thought the Conservatives were supposed to be the smartest guys in the room. Oh wait, that would be the guys from Enron. Not to worry, we have a PM that apporpriates other peoples work as his own. Another speech plagiarized proving Harper is no where as quick on his feet as many here suggest. These well placed campaign exposures move the elusive majority further away and threaten to relegate the CPC to the Opposition benches.

I have said many times this election will be won or lost in Quebec. This latest poll shows Harper's party is now in 3rd place there. Ontario remains the only other region with seat numbers available to Conservatives to form a majority without gains in Quebec. This poll shows the CPC now down to an Ontario dead heat with Liberals. What will be the fallout if we have a near identical outcome to January, 2006?

That implies all pollsters are created equal. Until they are dethroned by another firm with greater accuracy I will base my opinions on information from proven winners. You called the election weeks ago as annihilation of Dion's Liberals. I'll make my prediction today: Another Tory minority with Dion resigning and Ignatieff taking over his leadership.

Elizabeth May hit the Harper target time after time after time. He had no responses to her thrashing. The PM's failed debate performances is backed up just released polls showing his party now behind it's finish in the 2006 election. Election analysis in 2 weeks will show Elizabeth May's debate skills contributed to another Tory minority - snatching a minority from a mid election majority will be Harpers political legacy.

I appreciate your anguish over such an accusation. My apology.

double post

It's official: Goodbye majority. Conservatives fall behind their 2006 election night showing. What a difference a plagarized speech and/or debate makes. CPC 35% Libs 30 NDP 18 Grn 10 Bloc 8 http://www.nanosresearch.com/election/CPAC-Nanos-October-2008E.pdf

So many conservatives getting personal over other leaders physical presence - Elizabeth May's "chompers", Dion's "head bobbing". In the interest of equality and fair play let me contribute this observation made possible by a giant plasma and 1080p resolution: Harper has broken out with a terrible case of facial warts. While he was losing all that recently gained weight he was adding a half dozen prominent warts which, frankly, don't flatter is smarmy smirk. Whats up with that? Just an equal opportunity observation.