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Everything posted by Yzermandius19
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The road to 2020
Yzermandius19 replied to GostHacked's topic in Federal Politics in the United States
And Obama still won because the Republicans ran a chump like Romney. Trump is still going to win too, and the Democrats running a chump like Biden, Warren, Sanders or Buttigieg will play into that. -
The road to 2020
Yzermandius19 replied to GostHacked's topic in Federal Politics in the United States
Trump has gained support since he was elected. All president's get an inauguration bump, it always fades. He hasn't lost support, he's gained it, his approval rating is much higher in swing states than it is nationally as well. Democrats will only barely win with historic turnout, even if they get it, if they lose one of five key swing states, they still lose, according to Moody's. They have to run the table in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Virginia or they lose. -
The road to 2020
Yzermandius19 replied to GostHacked's topic in Federal Politics in the United States
Never. He could shoot someone walking down fifth avenue and they still wouldn't abandon him. A joke sure, but there is actually a lot of truth in it. Those who think Trump supporters are going to abandon him are all Trump Haters engaging in wishful thinking, they want Trump supporters to abandon him, so they go looking for reasons they might do that, while ignoring all the reasons they definitely won't do that. -
America under President Trump
Yzermandius19 replied to betsy's topic in Federal Politics in the United States
Fox News are consistently some of the worse for Trump, and they overestimated Clinton in 2016, in case you didn't notice, which you clearly didn't. Only Rasmussen got it right, and they are usually pro-Republican bias but that didn't even show up in 2016. In 2016 the LA Times was only pro-Trump biased poll, the vast majority had strong pro-Clinton bias, and a few good one's were pretty close, like Rasmussen and The Economist/YouGov. The polls chronically underrated Trump against Democrats, especially early in the race. If you don't think the polls are biased in favor of Democrats, you really aren't paying any attention to polls. Polls have been underrating Republicans consistently, long before Trump, and that trend has been on steroids when it comes to Trump. The margin of error was consistently off, in Clinton's direction in 2016, and that is very likely the case in 2020. -
America under President Trump
Yzermandius19 replied to betsy's topic in Federal Politics in the United States
You already cited them. Your own RCP state by state polling links, do you read them? Guess not. Warren is behind Trump in every swing state, Bernie splits them with Trump, BIden has slight lead in most of them except North Carolina. No big leads, and this is the NYTimes, who hate Trump with a passion. -
America under President Trump
Yzermandius19 replied to betsy's topic in Federal Politics in the United States
Go look at the most recent polls in all the swing states on the RCP average, look for the results of the NYTimes/Sienna poll, which is at the top because they are newest state by state 2020 election polls, behold the numbers sucking for Democrats, especially when anti-Trump bias is factored in. Warren losing in every key swing state, Bernie splits them Trump like 50/50 with all Bernie's leads being within the margin of error, and Biden ahead slightly in everywhere except North Carolina. Go look at your own links, you posted them and you didn't even read the latest polls? -
America under President Trump
Yzermandius19 replied to betsy's topic in Federal Politics in the United States
The polls have proven to be historically biased against Trump, by about 3 points. So you have spot Trump at least a couple points, especially when the election is so far away and the actual result is too far away to keep them honest. Like I said, the New York TImes is very anti-Trump, and they show him at least close with all the top Democrats in all the key swing states or winning already, and those numbers are only going to go down the more time Trump has to focus fire on them, see Hillary Clinton. -
America under President Trump
Yzermandius19 replied to betsy's topic in Federal Politics in the United States
The Dems are already are taking the Rust Belt for granted, and show no signs whatsoever of changing course. Their numbers aren't good enough to win, they need to be higher at this point and the trend is downward. Once a nominee is picked Trump can focus fire on them and their numbers will continue to fall. Warren is already behind in every key swing state, Sanders splits the key swing states with Trump, and Biden is barely ahead in most of them. That's not good for Democrats, the NY Times isn't exactly a pro-Trump outlet. Not to mention impeachment isn't very popular in key swing states, so the more the Dems push it, the worse their numbers in the swing states will get. Kentucky isn't turning purple they just had the most unpopular governor in the nation and still nearly won. Your entire interpretation is wishful thinking. -
America under President Trump
Yzermandius19 replied to betsy's topic in Federal Politics in the United States
Not relevant to the point being made. -
Never made that argument. Anything other than school curriculum is not leaving it "up to chance", that is misrepresenting an argument with a stupid one to make yourself feel smarter by giving yourself an easy to clear hurdle. So like I said, strawman. Arguing with you is like talking to a wall covered in logical fallacies, good day. Anyone who knows how to argue in good faith and disagrees with me, go ahead, but clearly bcsapper isn't going to be that person.
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America under President Trump
Yzermandius19 replied to betsy's topic in Federal Politics in the United States
Those were the words printed in the 1991 promotional booklet, easily readable from the link provided. If you move the goalposts, or parade any more fallacies in this argument in bad faith, you will receive no further responses. -
Making fun of me by misstating my argument is not a rebuttal, it's a strawman. No one said leave it to chance, public schools are not the best place or the only place to become educated about sex. What's one to do? Not send their kids to bad schools and then think they are being well educated about sex because you did so.
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America under President Trump
Yzermandius19 replied to betsy's topic in Federal Politics in the United States
I gave you the link, do your own homework. Clearly you are arguing in bad faith with your idiotic strawmen, so don't expect me to do you any favors. You are lucky I even respond to your silliness at all. -
America under President Trump
Yzermandius19 replied to betsy's topic in Federal Politics in the United States
He claimed to be Kenyan back in 1991 in certain situations, never said he's still doing it. Y'all need to learn to read, and stop putting words in other people's mouths to make yourself feel smart. -
America under President Trump
Yzermandius19 replied to betsy's topic in Federal Politics in the United States
Whoop dee doo Basil. Kentucky ain't going blue, your point is irrelevant. -
Not what I said, but notice how you go right to a strawman with no other argument at all. Cognitive dissonance on full display. Obviously there are many other ways to get educated about sex than having the government provide it, and certainly the only way isn't by simply limiting your inquiries to anecdotal evidence of people you know. The only way for public schools to seem like they are doing a good job of providing sex education is to compare them to those who are even worse at it as if those are the only alternatives.
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America under President Trump
Yzermandius19 replied to betsy's topic in Federal Politics in the United States
Never said he wasn't born in Hawaii, I said he promoted himself as Kenyan when it suited his purposes. He's like Elizabeth Warren claiming to be part Indian. Fake Kenyan, Fake Indian, same-same. One was a fake nationality and the other was a fake ethnicity, that's the key difference. lol reading comprehension next time. -
America under President Trump
Yzermandius19 replied to betsy's topic in Federal Politics in the United States
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/promotional-booklet/ In a promotional booklet in 1991. He allowed himself to be promoted that way, then when he needed to be American to properly promote himself for political office, he promoted himself that way as well. Barry Soetoro is like Elizabeth Warren claiming to be an Indian, when it's advantageous to do so, notice she isn't doing that anymore, same-same. -
America under President Trump
Yzermandius19 replied to betsy's topic in Federal Politics in the United States
Kentucky isn't a swing state. Trump doesn't need Virginia either. -
Trump isn't screwing himself, he's screwing the Democrats, and the Democrats think they are screwing him, so they are falling over themselves to help Trump without even realizing it because they are blinded by Trump Derangement Syndrome into wishful thinking that Trump is done now, yet again. The Democrats are Charlie Brown, Trump is Lucy with the football, and they fall for it every time. The Democrats are so eager to kick the football that they will jump at any chance to try, even when it's an obvious trap, that's how desperate they are. Because the only chances they get to kick the football are obvious traps and they are so desperate to kick the football, they convince themselves it isn't a trap the few times they actually suspect that it might be. Orange Man Bad is a helluva drug.
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If parents don't want the state educating their kids about sex, there is nothing wrong with that. The statistics on all the things people think sex education helps to prevent have been getting worse, not better since sex ed was introduced in public schools, it's simply not effective, the theory doesn't work in practice. Early pregnancy is up, STD's are up, One Size Fits All, Public School Sex Ed curricula has not been helping. Turns out public schools aren't the best place to be educated about sex, and some parents pawning off their responsibility on the state to educate their kids about sex isn't helping, who knew? Public schools are in fact the worst way to do so. As usual the left and their clinging to public schools as the best solution for educating the kids about everything leads to a road to hell is paved with good intentions scenario.
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America under President Trump
Yzermandius19 replied to betsy's topic in Federal Politics in the United States
The fact that he attacked Ted Cruz on the birther thing to was also a stroke of genius, good luck pretending it was based on racial animus to attack Obama for it, when he attacks Ted Cruz for being a secret Canadian too. Great branding by Trump, he turned the birther thing into America First, while the media devolved into "the boy who cried reycist".