Zeitgeist

There’s merit in that worldview, but that world is gone. Harper’s world is gone too. At this point you place your bet on which horse will win for Canadians. Carney is the guy for a few months until the election, so we’ll get a chance to see how these horses perform and place our bets in the election.

Which is it, Dougie, giving into US control or Canadian sovereignty under any government elected by Canadians? You’re the one supporting globalist Carney. I’ve all the way along thought that economic union with the U.S. was the best option for both countries. I even thought that 51st state is worth considering if freely chosen by both countries. But those are options for democracies. The current US government is essentially a one-man succession of arbitrary dictates. Why would I want my country to fall in line with a Castro on the right when we’ve been trying to get out from Castro-Trudeau on the left? Canada has to cut its reliance on America, defend its sovereignty, and strengthen its free market democracy before entering into any serious negotiations on further integration with the U.S. It means strengthening our military and electing a Conservative government under Poilievre. It won’t be perfect, but if it restores and supplements what we had under Harper, I’ll take it.

Trump said in a press conference that he would use economic pressure to make Canada the 51st state. It was very clear. He doesn’t think there’s anything wrong with hurting families and populations in order to subjugate them to American control against the will of the people. His statements are undemocratic and promote oppression. You don’t need a political science degree to see the obvious. That Trump is willing to try this with America’s closest ally and biggest buyer of American goods illustrates what he’s about as a person and president. The world is watching. The U.S. under Trump is not trustworthy or supportive of a world that’s safe for democracy. Smaller countries are most at risk, because Trump’s foreign and domestic policy appears to be, More power to the powerful at the expense of those with less power. Russia is taking Trump at his word and seeing how far inside Ukraine they can push without the supposed “leader of the free world” caring. It appears that they can push very far without regard to the will of Ukrainians. Is that Trump’s vision for how the world should work? No thanks. Unfortunately Trump acts based on how he feels in the moment, and the people around him won’t question or keep him in check. The Congress and courts are not reeling him in enough, which raises questions about how well the U.S. government system works. I don’t respect warmongering and undermining democratically elected foreign governments. No doubt that was done to Ukraine and Biden contributed to that. Nevertheless, the answer isn’t to give green lights to undemocratic invasion. If Trump has an argument to make for why Canada becoming the 51st state is beneficial to Canadians and Americans, he should make it to the peoples of both countries and let the people decide through their respective governments. Disregarding trade agreements and threatening economic coercion won’t win Canadians over. If anything it will make them distrust the US. It also makes the possibility of brokering a better economic partnership for both countries harder. Why get further enmeshed with a partner who can renege on agreements and crush you without concern for your wellbeing? It sucks because Trump has disappointed many people who wanted to believe in him. He has essentially revived the Liberals in Canada because of their association with US opposition to Trump, damaging conservatism in the West at a time when countries like Canada desperately needed to pivot from radical left ideology.

I think some imports will go through and the U.S. will collect some revenue, but it won't be enough for major tax cuts. More importantly, business costs will rise and many products will rise in price. If the tariffs harm the economies of Canada and other allies, these populations won't soon forget and the boycott of U.S. goods will become severe. It won't even matter at that point how low the tariffs go or if they're removed. That could be the worst aspect of tariffs for America long term. Canada will adapt to any scenario. Our domestic market and alternative markets have much potential, especially if we stop buying/importing U.S. goods, because we'll replace many of them with our own goods. It's all stupid of course, because so many of our products and companies are publicly traded and part-U.S. part-Canadian owned, but consumers will become increasingly fixated on not buying American content. Yes the U.S. is a bigger fish, but what happens when the rest of the world begin to act like a school of piranhas? This isn't the 1800's. The supply chains are integrated due to the rapid delivery made possible by modern transportation and communication technology. Global trade has added tremendous variety and opportunity to everyone, despite imbalances and lower income labour markets, which see incomes rise over time. Just look at Japan. The bigger worry in all of this is that we create inefficiency and add costs by no longer taking advantage of the availability of resources when producing items. We end up trying to do things in-house at a much higher cost or not being able to build certain things because we can't access the resources locally. Only a stupid government would let one person make such important decisions. Economists and companies have made the calculus over decades about how to produce, distribute, and sell their products with the greatest efficiency and profit margins. Tariffs scew that calculus completely by creating barriers strictly along national lines. The truth is that economies are ecosystems that funtion regionally. The Great Lakes industrial cities are a perfect example of this. Cascadia on the West Coast is another example. The Maritimes-New England economy is another example. If Trump really wants Canada to be integrated with the U.S. with the least political fallout for his party or the American way of life, the answer is economic union and leaving each country with its federal and regional governments intact. Drop all tariffs and allow the free flow of people, goods, and services between the two countries. You retain your citizenship (and can only vote in your home country) unless you apply for and get the other country's citizenship. The central banks and currencies in each country can remain. If a third currency is desirable that can be used in either country, its value could be fixed at the mid-point between the values of both national currencies, but I think we could just accept each other's national currencies at their exchange values. All national programs with regard to healthcare, etc., can be retained for the respective citizens of each country. It may be true that Canadians pay less for their military, and they should contribute more, but it's also true that the U.S. gets our oil and natural gas at a discount. They refine and resell it. We definitely need to refine our own oil and sell it domestically. We should be paying less at the pumps than the Americans. I hope we see a very significant price drop in gas when the carbon tax is eliminated.

Ford was the only premier who demonstrated bravery and strength. Quebec, Alberta and Saskatchewan should’ve joined Ford. As usual Ontario is carrying the torch for Canada. We have to change our thinking from worrying about America shutting us out of their market to shutting down our dependence on the U.S. We might as well start realigning ourselves now. Yes it will hurt Canadians and Americans, but at least we won’t be susceptible to such coercion. Canada, Britain, and Europe can’t count on the U.S. to follow trade agreements. Even economic union with the U.S. is too risky in this context. Trump hasn’t won hearts and minds over to the idea of integration because of his 51st state by economic force rhetoric. He’s too belligerent and untrustworthy, so once again he will be squeezed out of authority, not just internationally but within the U.S. It’s too bad, because he has energy and smarts, but he’s too reckless and acts like a dictator.

Clearly the coterie of yes people around Trump won't question or reel him in, including Lutnick. All of them are willing to damage the U.S. and Western economies for the forseeable future in the uncertain hope that U.S. domestic industry will expand significantly as the cost of doing business rises and consumer markets decline due to tariffs. Given that there's no careful plan in this experiment or understanding that some companies and workers impacted may not recover from this sledgehammer, Canada has to stop engaging in this unpredictable mess. Let the Americans hike their tariffs and costs and spend the necessary decades and billions building the energy-intensive smelters and the power plants needed to power them. Americans and Canadians can't afford to wait that long, so Canada's best bet is to immediately seek other trade partners and supply its own domestic markets. Drop all U.S. investment plans and procurements with U.S. companies, including military, to the greatest extent possible. Seek to divert as much energy supply away from the U.S. as possible. Canada has the cards in the important ways on the supply side: oil, electricity, rare earth and precious minerals, steel and aluminum, potash, etc. Finding new markets will be hard but likely and we will endure a slump as our export economy adjusts. We'll have to bear the costs of military expansion as business revenue declines, but we can redirect spare industrial capacity to building infrastructure like high speed rail and pipelines (not to the U.S.). Waiting for the the U.S.'s next trade move puts Canada (and Americans) in the position of constant uncertainty. Let's instead strike agreements with more reliable partners and expand internal supply and trade. There's likely too much distrust for greater economic integration with the U.S.. Most Canadians oppose the idea of Canada becoming the 51st state, and our distrust will only grow as long as Trump talks about annexation of Greenland or taking back the Panama Canal. Soon it won't just be Canadians who aren't along for the ride with whatever POTUS feels like doing on any given day. We might as well cut our losses and ditch the sinking U.S. ship. Trump thinks we can't survive without America, but it increasingly looks like Canada will get dragged down with the U.S. as long as we remain dependent on the U.S. market.

You spew the nonsense of an unwashed 20 year old unemployed radical activist.

Bury your head in the sand seems to be what you’re saying. That’s what’s already been happening and it’s not working.

Well that’s the real conversation that has to happen. I’m not convinced yet that Trudeau was better at defending that Canada than the Americans calling attention to our unwillingness to defend and stand up for what makes Canada significant. Our Liberal government handcuffed the country with regulations, international obligations, inquiries and all form of shaming the country for its settler colonial past. We are reaping what our government has sown. Trump is doing what he can get away with by taking advantage of our current weakness and kicking the Democrats in the teeth by going after their proxy allies in the Liberal government of Canada. Carney will I’m sure bring his own flair to the party, but really the country has to smarten up fast. I simply don’t see that happening under the Liberal government. Although, Carney is a Davos darling. He’ll have his shot at fixing the mess.

Well if it doesn’t happen it won’t be because the technology doesn’t exist or we can’t afford it. It will be because of a failure to dream big, which would be indicative of a much bigger problem that illustrates the inability to walk and chew gum at the same time. In the great days of Canada’s Centennial we were building Expo 67 and subway lines, we had completed the St. Lawrence Seaway, planning was underway for the Confederation Bridge to PEI, TD Centre had been built in Toronto, and Montreal was bidding for the Olympics. John Lennon and Pierre Trudeau were hanging out and Canada was accepting draft dodgers from the Vietnam War. Canada can be and should be formidable in its aspirations. Otherwise why even bother doing the Canada thing?

We need Trump right now. He’s forcing the issues and making countries decide how to act. It’s a time of change. Canada can ride this wave because we’ve got the international backing against imperialist conquests. Canada shed imperialism after declaring herself “settler colonial.” Canada is protecting an idyllic vision of a progressive world order where the rules are clearly laid out and consistently enforced. Responsible government. It’s kind of boring but kind of how things should be. Other countries know it, which is why they look to Canada, but Canada has to drop its self-defeating woke narrative. Stop pretending to take the moral high ground when you won’t even pay for your own defence. Remember where you came from and live up to the dreams of the ancestral heroes.

I do think Freeland should play a role in trade negotiations with Trump just to watch the US negotiating team’s skin crawl. She should go in there demanding that the U.S. reinstate affirmative action and increase DEI spending and programs as an essential condition of any trade deal, oh and the removal of the 2nd Amendment just to keep Canadians “safe”. lol. Get your popcorn.

Yes we could and we should. Why treat China differently from Japan? Let the Chinese manufacturers in with Canadian content. Basically we create a joint Canada-China EV partnership.

We should get in on the action with Chinese EVs in that case by requiring a certain amount of Canadian-made content. Set up a couple of assembly plants in Ontario, hire several thousand Ontarians, get our parts industry involved. Replace the tariffs on Chinese EVs with CanCon requirements. Work that into the deal to remove the latest Chinese tariffs on our rapeseed, etc.

It’s any easy quick play, sure, that would give the Yanks pause, but you don’t want to undermine our existing strong auto sector. I wouldn’t assume that it will decline. I think Trump will desist before the whole supply chain collapses and auto prices climb 20% on both sides of the border. China likely would win in such circumstances. We would quickly get addicted to cheap Chinese EVs and the offshoring of our manufacturing could accelerate. However, everything is on the table.

Yes but that’s also the point: We are all connected. Russia was a longstanding ally before the Cold War. There’s still potential for better relations with China, but Harper played it smarter than Trudeau. Start skeptical and build trust over time. Magna had an SUV prototype 30 years ago. We have the companies and infrastructure ready to go.

Nice one. Yeah maybe we should. However, the harder but better play is to make our own EVs for domestic and export use. Hybrid and other gas vehicles too. Also, I don’t buy the idea that the Big Three aren’t also Canadian automakers. History shows that they are. Our home grown auto industry is fully integrated with the Big Three and those companies have been manufacturing and building components in Canada pretty much from their inception. That’s also why trying to parse out national content in the auto industry is so messy. There are good reasons why these components come from this area, usually related to local resource supply and centres of excellence.

Ford is doing that on energy.

Canada needs to dump the virtue bluster that depends on American largesse for its defence and prosperity. We need to understand the cost of true independence and pay it or we join the U.S.. We can’t have delusions of our own importance and grandeur. Again, there’s an opportunity here for economic union, but the best we can hope for right now is a restoration of Harperite Canada, because Canadians are furious and Trump keeps doubling down. Apparently people are bypassing cheap US goods in supermarkets right now that are suddenly in over-supply due to lack of sales. Canadians are defiant and willing to pay higher prices.

Well he’s forced Canada to get its priorities straight. I’m not giving up on Trump yet. Sadly, many people already have. Trump has to pivot and mend fences fast, however. The markets are responding to his rhetoric and approach with crushing blows.

Trump isn’t all wrong. A federal government needs to put its citizens first. In fact, creating win-win situations with other countries is almost always in the interests of the citizens because it builds trusts and opportunities. It becomes a problem when the costs of seeking to gain an advantage over another country or interest group damages the relationship such that the costs of reparation or abandoning the relationship completely are higher than the short-term advantage gained. That’s where Trump is missing the boat. Poilievre has to flesh out his vision and should probably use different language from Canada First. Devil is in the details. I trust Poilievre on resource development, lowering the cost of housing, reducing woke nonsense, and restoring Canadian pride over anything the Liberals have on offer now. Again, let’s see what the new Liberal leader does from now until the federal election. I already know where Poilievre stands.

I’m not into America First in the sense of zero-sum. I agree that Canada First could be construed that way. I think PP’s point is that the Canadian government needs to serve Canada’s interests primarily, but I agree that what’s good for Canada generally is good for the world. I think the question is whether the wishes of the citizens in a nation should take precedence over the interests of outside influences. Democracy means that they should. Otherwise we have lack of accountability and the purpose of a federal government is undermined.

Chretien had it right on Canada’s international relations. Multilateral but occasional opting out. However to be able to do that effectively requires more hard power and economic independence than we currently have.

What do you mean by internationalist? China-led developing countries? UN Human Rights policy with regard to Indigenous? International climate agreements and stakeholder capitalist ESG criteria? I think Canada should be very specific and transactional in international relations and agreements. Otherwise we risk working against the interests of Canadians. Yes to NATO; it depends to UN stuff and Davos stuff. Multilateralism except when it’s in our interests to go it alone. In almost all cases Canada should act in coordination with other countries, but there may be cultural or constitutional reasons for exemptions, such as allowing Indigenous to seal hunt, etc. Sovereignty requires exceptionalism in exceptional circumstances.

We should have liberalized trade, but if our biggest trading partner becomes belligerent and we don’t have the economic development and diversity to fall back on, or the military to defend our sovereignty, we’re back where we are now. Again, let’s see Carney in action and go from there.