Zeitgeist

But you can’t really separate the U.S. from the equation. I’ve been a proponent of beefing up our military, and not just to meet our NATO commitments but to guarantee our sovereignty. However, Canada doesn’t have as many enemies as the U.S. We haven’t installed dictators in Iraq and Central or South America or sold opium in Asia to buy arms, or launched invasions based on spurious claims of weapons of mass destruction. That’s not to say we shouldn’t support our allies. We do. Think of how we landed planes in 9/11 in Newfoundland and played an important role in Afghanistan, Bosnia, etc. Canada is in bed with the U.S. more than we like to admit. Nevertheless, the U.S. manipulates world affairs to ensure that it maintains the U.S. dollar as a the reserve currency and that resources are priced in it, an advantage we don’t have, partly because of our size and partly because we’re not part of the U.S. and haven’t played as many of those imperial games.

It’s true. I was kind of hoping for 51st state so Canada could walk away from the Indigenous welfare money pit, but it seems for now Canadians will continue to wear that millstone.

I want to call Trump’s bluff of 51st state. I want to hear how he would propose to implement the transition and how Canada’s social safety net and different federal departments would be integrated. Let’s hear an honest, considered proposal. I think Canadians would be interested in hearing the pitch as a positive option for Canadians rather than as an option chosen through pressure. Explain the value for Canadians. That’s the only way it could happen smoothly and successfully, if it’s freely chosen. My thinking is that this is an opportunity to look at all possibilities for both countries, including forms of economic union that retain the national sovereignty of both countries. What are the advantages and disadvantages of each for both countries. Let’s get creative and do something special. The only option that works is the one both countries want.

Trump wanted to cut a bilateral deal with Mexico first to freeze Canada out. Same thing happened with USMCA negotiations. Everyone knows that Canada’s border isn’t the issue. This is pure might is right Realpolitik. However, Canada isn’t going to behave as predictably as he thinks.

It doesn’t matter. US businesses will feel the pinch soon, and it won’t be good enough for most of them to hear, yeah but it’s even worse for Canada. Some solace to say, “The shit sandwich I’m making you eat isn’t as big as the shit sandwich I’m making someone else eat, so you should be happy.” How about not making anyone eat shit?

Withdrawal from trade with Canada would have far reaching consequences for the US that Trump is pretending don’t exist. We provide 23 rare resources that are important to US defence and industry. We’re a rare and significant supplier of uranium and medical isotopes. Also, the U.S. sells hundreds of billions of products to Canada. It’s not as simple as, Trump want cookie, Trump get cookie. Very soon there will be a lot of very worried people in the United States, not just Canada and Mexico. We are the number one export market for many US states. Now, there’s a case to be made that Trump is in a position to pressure Canada to some extent on trade, but his executive power is a lot more limited than he may be projecting right now. There are courts, Congress, the WTO, the USMCA dispute resolution panel, thousands of businesses and individuals impacted by higher costs and disruptions to supply chains. Trump isn’t Kim Jung Un, not yet anyway. If this policy causes too much trouble, it won’t take much to tip the American electorate, almost half of which already can’t stand him, against the Republicans who will suddenly find themselves distancing themselves from Trump to keep their seats in Congress/Senate. The smarter move is to begin earnest negotiations with positive proposals for a revised and improved agreement. I actually think there’s a strong case for greater integration with the U.S., but Trump’s current approach is making the U.S. appear less trustworthy and dependable. Canadians may soon want more independence despite the costs, simply because they don’t want to be sucker punched again. If in the worst case scenario Trump tries to cripple Canada and take the country through economic force, I think the long term costs both internationally and domestically would be high for the U.S. Very high.

Yes, which will be hard for Canada given the convenience of the U.S. market, which feels in many ways like a domestic market. Trump isn’t wrong to say that we depend on that market. The question for Canadians is whether their sovereign independence is worth the price of having that market shut by a self-interested US that chooses to make it costly for Canadians to sell into that market if we don’t simply join the U.S. Canada can choose independence and pay the added costs, and the U.S. will pay added costs and suffer too. Trump simply thinks it’s worth the risks because eventually he’ll wring concessions out of Canada. I don’t think he understands how it will play out in terms of negative impacts on the American international image. Canadians may be willing to pay the added costs of greater independence, but if they do realign Canada away from the U.S., that’s probably a worse situation for the U.S. too. It’s not how to win friends and influence people. It’s not how to create more opportunities for both countries through sensible economic ties.

He doesn’t care a damn about the northern border. He already said it’s artificial and should be erased. The tariffs are about gaining trade advantages and trying to replace internal revenue with external revenue, making other countries pay Americans more. That’s it. The fentanyl and illegal migrants from Canada aren’t real concerns, which is why the $1.3 billion we’re spending on helicopters and other border stuff didn’t change anything in these negotiations. He’s trying to put the squeeze on Canada to get more stuff for the US or simply to annex Canada. That’s it.

I would agree that most people right now are too oblivious, busy, caught up in feeding their urges, etc. Like I said with regard to US sentiment, attitudes change when people start feeling the pain: job losses, higher prices, media messaging, etc. That’s when people lose their shit and politicians are forced to take action. Again, maybe it won’t be a big deal in the U.S., but I have the feeling that if Canadians and Mexicans suffer because of this, you will see Boycotts and actions that Americans will feel. It’s just human nature. We may be the weaker party, but no one likes Goliath winning against David, especially when Goliath started the fight.

They are. Biden maintained Trump’s China tariffs.

The tariffs haven’t kicked in yet. Look, I’m the most pro-American person in my social circle and I’m invested in the U.S., but the Canadian nationalism and anti-American sentiment is palpable right now. We never boo the U.S. national anthem, but it’s happening in our sports stadiums right now, which tells you what average Canadians are feeling. Does it matter to America? Do we lose more financially than they do? Perhaps, but that doesn’t mean America can’t lose in this situation. It’s a gamble and the impacts haven’t hit yet.

Poilievre has tax cut plans. The question of whether or not the tariffs will provide the external revenue windfall that Trump thinks will come is not in any way settled, because there’s a likelihood that sales into the U.S. and U.S. exports drop, perhaps quite significantly. A drop in business activity means loss of business revenue. It’s funny that they think other countries will just keep buying US stuff and keep trying to sell into a market where it’s harder to sell goods rather than seek other markets.

What’s the point in destroying the biggest markets for your own exports? It’s not just about the impact of the tariffs and regulations; it’s about goodwill. The U.S. will lose its biggest export markets and drive up internal costs and still remain uncompetitive with China. Anyway, they can try the experiment.

So I have experience reading these kinds of reports. The trick is to read them backwards. The paper lays out American strengths and policies assuming that certain conditions are maintained, including the persistence of the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency. Of course that becomes harder to maintain as countries feel more and more taken advantage of. BRIC countries and alternative reserves are waiting to pounce. There’s this grand assumption that the world will accept American abuse for the privilege of selling into an American market that is no longer a good place to sell goods. It’s like saying I’m going to punch you in the face because I know you want to be my friend. The less other countries invest in America, the lower the U.S. dollar will have to become to attract investment. This tariff scheme depends on a strong U.S. dollar and the world propping up the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency. Actually you can gain entry to Canada by investing in businesses and hiring Canadians. It’s how BC was developed with Hong Kong money.

Right, and Canadians will remember these moves and respond accordingly.

There are entry requirements for moving to America to live, work, and operate businesses except as permitted under the various designations and sections of USMCA, including the provision to move goods between countries. All of these provisions are out the window if the trade agreement is scrapped. Each country has set conditions within these agreements. I mean sure, the U.S. administration could rip them up and invite businesses in, but those businesses would pretty much be abandoning their business prospects and sales outside America, certainly in Canada, with or without any regulations on account of the Boycotts.

But businesses can’t just move to other countries if there’s no trade agreement that allows it. It’s a foolish gambit to impose these tariffs and expect that everyone will just accept them without retaliation and carry on. There are about a million Canadians in America and about a million Americans in Canada. There are millions of dual citizens. Yeah everyone is going to just pretend everything is okay when the sales to Canada slow and the cost of products rises. Right because all producers will return to America and export their products to the markets that have become disgruntled with the U.S., especially after afflicting economic hardship on the neighbouring countries. It’s got a very Quixotic look indeed. But y’know, kick ass n all that…

Sure, but Trump’s great victory was only a difference in votes of 1.5% of the electorate. If Trump loses the middle, he’ll be resented by the Republican base eventually and Trumpism will join the scrap heap of other political waves. It’s all fun and games until the local factory that relies on certain resources that are hard and expensive to come by in the U.S. has to cut production and lay off workers, or when a once popular wine brand loses 15% of its sales because Canadians stop buying it, or suddenly there’s an exodus of snowbirds from the sunny south and home prices collapse. I haven’t even mentioned the highly overvalued U.S. stock markets that are ripe for major corrections. Trump is gambling with house money, Americans’ money. If this doesn’t go well soon, Trump will be in damage control with an angry electorate. I’m not sure he has as much time as he thinks. I’m also not sure he has a profound plan. A good leader surrounds himself with effective people and listens to them. A dictator mismanages because it’s impossible for one person to have hands on all the levers.

Right, so we can bypass America and trade directly with Mexico and China.

I don’t disagree that may be the plan. I just don’t know if it will work out the way he hopes It will. It’s gunboat diplomacy. People hate coercion. The results may backfire big time. I don’t think it’s a win for Canada to have to become more independent to fight this either. I also don’t think that this is the path to statehood that’s advisable because it’s undemocratic and reveals a mercantile empire mentality that countries rejected in the last century. You can get what you want through fear or winning hearts and minds. Those ruled by fear will flee the second they get a chance and they will proudly wear the badge of anti-oppression and liberation. Trump could’ve been seen as a great liberator. Instead, if he doesn’t watch it, he’ll go down as another oppressor, a Nebuchadnezzar or Hun. There’s nothing cool or alluring about it. It’s anti-American philosophically, but actually it could be the new America, and if so, the American brand tanks internationally, and rightly so. Trump is pushing it and soon he’ll realize that there are boundaries in the court of public opinion and even among the checks and balances of US government. Right now he’s being given time. Time and political capital are limited commodities.

Exactly. Let’s not forget that the U.S. has pissed off a lot of countries over the decades. There’s an argument to be made that Canada doesn’t need to spend money on the military because we shouldn’t be supporting America’s colonial wars. It’s all rhetoric to extract money from Canada. Our leaders should start by handing a piece of paper with their first offer in all trade negotiations being a zero with a line through it. It’s the Mr. Burns approach. That’s exactly what Trump is doing now, making up loads of BS about border security on the northern border and trade deficits as he gets our oil at fire sale prices. We just spent $1.3 billion on border stuff and it didn’t do anything to reduce tariffs.

Which makes me think the whole threat is a game to extract as much as he can out of a trade deal. We need to take a similarly ridiculous position of removing items from previous trade agreements, such as access to our resources. If we’re going to get screwed we might as well screw back. Energy and resources are our ace in the hole. Trump doesn’t need any of it? Cool and the Gang. We’ll ship to Germany, China, anybody but the U.S. Let’s start with refining our oil and shipping it to Ontario. Cut the price of fuel in half at the pumps. Make Canada affordable for Canadians.

Actually Canada has a full range of incredible liquor. I had some of the best gin I ever tasted at Toronto’s distillery district. Our whiskies and vodkas are top class. It will be fun to explore the range of Canadian options. My favourite drink is Dillon’s gin and orange-mint. Stellar and located in Niagara. If you get a chance to visit the distillery in Elora, it’s got a phenomenal lounge upstairs and some really unique drinks.

Well that’s exactly right. It’s citizens from the “colonized” countries who are colonizing Canada at an unprecedented rate. The upside of Multiculturalism is that it contains the special interests like Quebec ethno-nationalists and the Indigenous welfare activists. The downside is that the citizens coming in are overwhelming all of the original groups that started Canada. The better route than relying on mass immigration is to make it easier for Canadians to have kids and have family friendly policies.

Local microbreweries. Knowing who makes what is critical in this fight. I’ve suddenly realized I like Moosehead.