nittanylionstorm07

You're contradicting yourself.

A gold star! I think there will be one or two surprises at least in New Brunswick, the rest could easily be balanced out by Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Fair enough on that last point. Sask/Manitoba is similar to the Atlantic issue where provinces are lumped together. There is too much momentum, though, in Sask/Man for the NDP. Okay? I didn't start with 130. I started with each province and then added up the numbers. Basing it solely off polling is not good... you have to also include who is turning out to vote... and it's looking like a lot of youth vote. The FPTP system is indeed broken, and you all need some sort of instant runoff system. Appreciate the last paragraph. I think this is a new circumstance where the NDP will turn out higher than expected based off of the youth vote and traditional non-voters turning out.

It's a suburb of Louisville, KY

I look at how much she increased the Green's %age in Central Nova in 2008, then I look at SGI as a riding. They are way more environmentalist than Central Nova, not to mention the riding polls that have come out showing her ahead. I just think it is a good bet.

This is based off of looking at various regional polling statistics and considering that there have been many reports of high turnout especially with youth. One problem is that all of the pollsters combine these into "Atlantic Canada" and I'd rather break it down by province, so I've had to do my best guess. The NDP is leading well in the Maritimes, and they will perform as such.

Okay. Do you have projections to offer, or are you just trolling?

...a gold star. Starting a new thread to try to get all of the newest projections in one place, and older projections based off of older polls will likely be inaccurate. The only projections that will count will be final house of commons projections, though feel free to provide a province-territory breakdown. Seat Projections due before BC polls close With that said, here are mine: Provinces/Territories British Columbia CPC 14 NDP 18 LPC 3 GRN 1 Alberta CPC 26 NDP 2 LPC 0 Saskatchewan CPC 11 NDP 3 LPC 0 Manitoba CPC 7 NDP 7 LPC 0 Ontario CPC 57 NDP 22 LPC 27 Quebec CPC 3 NDP 60 LPC 1 BQ 11 New Brunswick CPC 4 NDP 5 LPC 1 Prince Edward Island CPC 0 NDP 2 LPC 2 Nova Scotia CPC 4 NDP 6 LPC 1 Newfoundland/Labrador CPC 1 NDP 4 LPC 2 Nunavut CPC 0 NDP 0 LPC 1 Northwest Territories CPC 0 NDP 1 LPC 0 Yukon CPC 0 NDP 0 LPC 1 TOTALS: Conservative Party of Canada 127 New Democratic Party 130 Liberal Party of Canada 39 Bloc Quebecois 11 Green Party of Canada 1

Why can't you believe that Elizabeth May has a chance in SGI?

Get out and vote today in one of the most exciting elections in Canadian history!!! Make a difference whether you are voting Conservative, Liberal, NDP, Green, Bloc, Rhinoceros, Independent, etc... today is the day you get to have your voice heard! I'm still supremely jealous that you all get to vote today... I'm still wishing we had a Parliamentary system!

Considering there are always more conservative supporters who will rate a higher "certainty" number, this is extremely wonky logic. Hardcore base conservatives for the most part base their decision on fear and see things in more black/white than shades of gray or color. They are basically "7" for CPC and "0" for everyone else.

Good lord. Don't you people ever get enough of yourselves?

He has an evening release tonight that is going to be released any minute now... that looks like the previous release. Predictable.

NDP is up across the board in latest numbers except BC where they dropped 7 pts. They are first in Atlantic, Quebec, and second everywhere else.

I think it's pretty clear Mulclair will be the next leader. This is an oversimplistic response. The Liberals have been the dominant left-centre party in Canada since Confederation. The reason the NDP hasn't been able to breakthrough is that the Liberals have always kept their hold onto that position until Martin/Dion/Iggy, sponsorship, etc. with their loss in trust. That allowed the NDP to break out of their traditional areas and into Quebec, where now people are tired of the Bloc and separatist movement. It's a perfect storm that has allowed the NDP to come up and cement themselves as the dominant left-wing party in Canada. The Liberals and Bloc are toast.

All I can find is that they predicted a Liberal government. With that said, opinion polling has made tremendous strides since then.

I agree. I think the major conflict in this election is trying to rectify where the Con increases are (how big are they in already strong Tory seats?) versus where the NDP may actually be challenging.

Why do you constantly lie and make up ****? http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110430-LeadershipE.pdf

Really? He should be proud of his low brow attacks in the debates and campaign? He should be proud of the fact that he led his party... the only party never to finish under second overall nationally... to the worst showing it has ever seen, including letting the NDP pass it? Yeah he should be proud alright. Just like Kim Campbell should be proud of her election performance in 1993.

I knew it was smaller, but didn't know the number. Bloc could be flirting with that, fortunately.

Tories: This poll is crazy, probably some liberal socialist concocted it. You're thinking of the minimum number of required seats for official party/federal funding statuses. They still sit.

Which makes it even all the more sad that he is the best leadership prospect for the Liberals.

You guys really need to quit reading Karl Rove's book on How to Effective Destroy a Country Through Inane Personal Attacks in Politics.

131

Jack Layton murders babies and eats them with hershey's syrup. Sound better?