Conservative Party Leadership

[maplesyrup]

Belinda Stronach is entering the leadership race. The formal announcement will be made next week.

[maplesyrup]

Chuck Strahl is frustrated with the process, the rules for the Conservative leadership race, which he reads about in the press, he hasn't been given access to the membership list, other candidates are using the party political donation number. That's too bad if he pulls out

[maplesyrup]

It isn't going to happen for Harper. The people with the deep pockets want a national party to run against the Liberals. I'm talking perception here.

'Conservatives will battle for leadership in `ground war'

Rules offer no frontrunner advantage

Every riding will carry the same clout'

by TONDA MACCHARLES

Toronto Star

http://www.torontostar.com/NASApp/cs/Conte...ol=968350116467

'-new way of picking the leader does not give Harper no big advantage, despite his strong support in the West.

-key to this race will be what one party source called "the ground war, not the air war."

-campaign fought in the trenches.

-details of the vote will be decided this weekend

1-every riding in the country carries the same clout when it comes to picking the leader. Every riding, big or small, will contribute 100 points toward the vote, which means a Quebec riding with 20 members will have as much say in the outcome as a riding in Alberta with 6,000 members.

-308 ridings — using new boundaries that will be in effect for the federal election —there are 30,800 points at stake.

f-irst candidate to win more than 50 per cent plus one of the total — 15,401 points — will be the victor.

even if Harper should win all 90 ridings, and 9,000 points, in the West, he'd still be well short of the winning threshold.

-other big voting blocks are in Ontario, with 103 ridings representing 10,300 points, and Quebec, with 75 ridings. -Atlantic Canada's 32 ridings are worth 3,200 points.

-Quebec, once again, is wide-open territory — ripe for a savvy on-the-ground organizer to sell memberships and sew up the necessary votes.

-Remember the foray by organizers for Alliance leadership contender Tom Long into Gaspé cemetery rosters to stack membership rolls in the 2000 race that saw Stockwell Day emerge the winner? There are rules against it.

-But one Quebec politico predicted yesterday that kind of political hustling may well win the province again: "I think the one that is going to have the money to buy some memberships and do the Tom Long thing without getting caught is going to win this leadership in Quebec."

2-it will be a preferential ballot.

-electors across the country will mark their ballots once, and rank in order of preference their choice of candidate to lead the party. A voter's second choice, therefore, could matter as much as the first, because if no clear winner emerges after the first count, the least popular candidate will drop off the ballot. The second choice of that candidate's supporters will then be counted, and a new tally announced.

-Harper's organizers are worried about the outcome of a second count, believing he may not be able to "grow" his support in a second round. "He needs to be the first choice of more than 50 per cent of the voters," said one supporter at the launch of Harper's campaign.

-if, as that supporter frets, people either love or hate Harper and have him at the top or bottom of the ballot, there's not much chance of his winning more support on the second round.

-Party organizers have not decided whether there'll be a third count of preferential ballots if no winner emerges after two counts. Prospective leaders of the new Conservative Party of Canada learned yesterday they'll have to ante up $100,000 before Jan. 30 to join the race.'

I think that last point, apparently shoved in at the last minute, is the reason Chuck Strahl will not be running. What a shame.

Tony Clement has just announced he is in at a press connference but will be making a more formal announcement later on. Sounds like Clement will be the SARS candidate, and Clement just said there is no way for the new Conservative party to be successful , that there is any perception of a takeover. Clement says quite categorically that the party needs a new leader, with the ability to unite and then elect. At his press conference the name Larry Spencer came up. Tony Clement self described as the holiday Inn guy. What you see is what you get. He did not too bad, the press are rough, no question about that, but Clement stood there and took questions fired at him for 45 minutes in both English and French..

To my friend Neil.F. below, I would presume that Jack Layton and the NDP would want the strongest Conservative leader possible to challenge the Paul Martin Liberals from the other side of the spectrum.

Realistically the Conservatives in 2004 are not running to forn the government.

Edited January 15, 2004 by maplesyrup

[Neal.F.]

Jack Layton must be delighted. It is certainly shaping up to be a good year for him.

Rest assured that if Stronach wins, there won't be a National party. The CA will walk out and reform will be reborn.

[Pellaken]

Jack Layton must be delighted. It is certainly shaping up to be a good year for him.

Broadbent

possibley Lewis

Dave Barett I hear

Shelia Copps

Stephen Harper

yeay

[Neal.F.]

Stephen Harper?

Pell, you been smoking some of that stuff Jacko wants legalized?

[maplesyrup]

I'm curious about Quebec. Does anyone know what is the position of the Quebec Conservative members generally on abortion and same-sex marriage?

And does anyone know what Stronach's position is, on these 2 important Conservative party issues?

My impression is that the main race it's going to be between Stronach and Harper, and that the Clement supporters will decide who is going to win, by their second choice, on the preferential ballot.

Edited January 15, 2004 by maplesyrup

[Pellaken]

Does anyone know what is the position of the Quebec Conservative members generally on abortion and same-sex marriage?

I dunno, you should ask them, I think both their e-mail addresses are online

[maplesyrup]

'A Stronach fan, Strahl pulls out of Tory contest'

By Ian Bailey

The Province

http://www.canada.com/vancouver/theprovinc...D4-036CB6E1AB3B

'Fraser Valley MP Chuck Strahl has all but endorsed auto-parts tycoon Belinda Stronach as the best leadership choice for the Conservative Party of Canada, days after calling off his own bid for the top job.'

This is a real blow to Harper, as Strahl has a certain amount of support, particularly in the West.

She's not a shoe in, and it's probably going to be a close race, but Stronach will win. Whatever happens it is going to be a fascinating journey. Good luck to your respective favourite candidate.

Finally some excitement in the conservative ranks.

[Michael Hardner]

Rest assured that if Stronach wins, there won't be a National party. The CA will walk out and reform will be reborn.

So it IS a takeover then ?

A re-formed Reform would make the 4th incarnation of the party since 2000. First there was Reform, then in 2000 it became the Canadian Alliance, which split into two factions, one called the Democratic Reform Caucus or something. Then they merged with the PCs to create the Conservatives.

Reform Party II would not be taken seriously by anyone but the true believers. I recommend you stick with the Conservatives if you want to have a chance to form the opposition.

[theWatcher]

The CA will walk out and reform will be reborn.

I suggest that in such a circumstance of the CA people leaving the new party they would shift their energies from the federal scene to the provincial parties. For many of us the CP party was the last kick at the federal cat, and after that the only choice left is to persue independence.

Barbera Straunach leading the conservatives is the preferred scenario for both Martin and Layton and is the recipe needed to give the NDP the official opposition.

Think about it, what choice does it give the electorate? How is a Straunach vote any different from a Martin vote?

Layton would have a field day with it, do you vote for Billionare #1 who leans slightly to the left, or Billionare #2 who leans, well, no one knows where, or do you vote for the socialist?

[Neal.F.]

'A Stronach fan, Strahl pulls out of Tory contest'

By Ian Bailey

The Province

http://www.canada.com/vancouver/theprovinc...D4-036CB6E1AB3B

'Fraser Valley MP Chuck Strahl has all but endorsed auto-parts tycoon Belinda Stronach as the best leadership choice for the Conservative Party of Canada, days after calling off his own bid for the top job.'

This is a real blow to Harper, as Strahl has a certain amount of support, particularly in the West.

She's not a shoe in, and it's probably going to be a close race, but Stronach will win. Whatever happens it is going to be a fascinating journey. Good luck to your respective favourite candidate.

Finally some excitement in the conservative ranks.

That is why Strahl will never be leader. He's burned too many bridges and made too many enemies among both Tories and Reformers.

Stick a fork in him. he's done.

and so is the CP, if they elect Stronach.

anybody seen Olivia Chow talking to interior decorators lately?

[maplesyrup]

Belinda Stronach has just made a great speech for Conservatives, touching on all the major issues, including gun control issues.

Her websire is www.belinda.ca , she has her own blog on it as well.

I believe she will win the Conservative party leadership race on the first ballot, and people like former Prime Minister Joe Clark will return to the fold.

Edited January 20, 2004 by maplesyrup

[Michael Hardner]

I believe she will win the Conservative party leadership race on the first ballot, and people like former Prime Minister Joe Clark will return to the fold.

Loud buzzer sound...

How many proponents of the "merger" (cough, cough) on these very boards have said "If so and so wins, we're quitting" or "We're re-forming Reform as ReReFrom" or whatever.

Harper has the leadership race in the bag. Only he can force centrist ideas down the throats of the true believers who have nowhere else to go.

First it'll be same-sex marriage, then immigration, bilingualism etc. etc.

It's a race to the centre for all 3 major parties.

[maplesyrup]

For those of you, who still don't think Belinda Stronach is going to win, chew on these excerpts from the following article (and by-the-way, This Hour has 22 Minutes people were there and she handled it fine, treating it like the joke it is supposed to be):

'Hometown girl starts uptown journey'

by TONDA MACCHARLES

Toronto Star

http://www.torontostar.com/NASApp/cs/Conte...ol=968350116467

'"She's a new fresh face. It's great for the party. People are tired of seeing those old faces, the same old political hacks," said party supporter Dave Prisco, 23, of North Bay. "Look at her signs, they're not your typical Tory blue."

Stronach's banners in fact bear no Tory blue or Canadian Alliance blue and green, but carry a logo distinguished by orange, light and dark blue, and light and dark green. A new look for the new party she claimed to represent yesterday.'

'Still, you didn't have to look far for confirmation Stronach and her handlers are dead serious about this bid.

In the room, though well out of camera range, were Mike Harris' former chief of staff, Guy Giorno, Toronto Tory organizers Jaime Watt, Kevin Gallagher. There were even bodyguards, one of whom accompanied Stronach as she began a trip west, along with Deb Hutton, a key Harris policy adviser, Ian Todd, formerly chief of staff to Preston Manning and Stockwell Day, and Stacey Gray, who worked for PC leader Joe Clark.

They plan to make sure Stronach sells as a "professional" alternative to the politicians out there, using all the tricks of the professionals.

"We're going to win this on the ground, go out and sell memberships," said campaign manager and Tory backroom veteran John Laschinger. "People think we can't do this in six weeks? Watch us."

"Stronach brings two key things to this," he said. "The ability to unite the party and not make it look like a takeover. ... And she can attract votes in Ontario."'

'Laschinger predicted the hard-core socially conservative Reform/Alliance members of the party will not resent the moderate social views of a twice-divorced mother of two, but will respect her for having the courage of her convictions to outline her stances clearly.

"The Canadian Alliance members out West have decided, `You know what, we're tired of being on the outside barking in. We want power, we want government.'"'

'But at the small Legion hall, those who do know her didn't doubt for a moment she'll succeed, and are thrilled at the prospect Aurora, once home to Lester B. Pearson, might some day cough up another prime minister.

Dozens of memberships were sold after she spoke.

Bob McGavin, chair of fundraising for the South Lake Regional Health Centre, a hospital for which Stronach is honorary fundraising co-chair for, said he came because Stronach represents the "change" needed in Canada's political system.'

[Cameron]

I'm going to throw my hat in Stronarch's ring...

She is young, a new face to politics and has a very good platform. Out of all the other cadidates I like her the best. Good ideas and a vision for the future that I share. If she does win, I think she could take this party to victory.

[dnsfurlan]

For those of you, who still don't think Belinda Stronach is going to win, chew on these excerpts

Well, chew on this,

Chantal Hebert on Belinda:

In a federal election campaign, Stronach would have lost seats for her party yesterday.

As this is still only the leadership contest, she handed rivals Stephen Harper and Tony Clement their best campaign day to date.

www.thestar.com/hebert

Craig Oliver on Belinda:

CTV's Craig Oliver believes Stronach proved she is not a politician for the national stage and is "out of her league".

Link to Article

So, you have two of the more prominent Ottawa correspondents trashing Belinda's performance yesterday.

Its amazing what some people will latch on to in their desire for political success.

We've been down this road before. Their names were Campbell and Day.

But some people never seem to learn.

[maplesyrup]

Cameron....I agree with you that Belinda is the the best candidate to lead the Conservatives, if they have aspirations to take power some day.

The Conservatives in Western Canada need to take their heads out of the sand.

----------------------------------

dnsfurlan.....the way Craig Oliver and Mike Duffy have been fawning over Paul Martin, it wouldn't surprise me to see them end up at the CBC (joke, the CBC part, that is!).

Chantel Hebert is from Quebec, I presume. Are there any other Federal political parties in Quebec except the Liberals and the Bloc from her point of view?

There is no such thing as an unbiased journalist, or person for that matter. I have my optics and you have yours.

For example, my point of view is to say comparing Stronach's campaign, with Day or Campbell is not on. For one thing, look at the power people in Conservative politics that are supporting her.

This race is strictly a matter of selling party memberships, and controlling the votes in each riding across the country.

Like most things in life, follow the money.

Edited January 21, 2004 by maplesyrup

[dnsfurlan]

So, the opinions you posted aren't unbiased? Give me a break.

And, yes, money matters here. Harper has a helluva lot of it too. Has raised it from actual members, by the way.

The Stronach candidacy, right now, is the epitomey of style and hope over any kind of substance.

And, by the way, a lot of important PCs supported Campbell too.

We've been down this road before. The conservative movment needs less hope and more competecy - plus a reality check, by the looks of it.

[dnsfurlan]

Cameron....I agree with you that Belinda is the the best candidate to lead the Conservatives, if they have aspirations to take power some day.

What exactly is this view based on? A person is thrown in front of a TV camera and all of a sudden they become the best candidate to become Prime Minister of a country?

Shouldn't candidates actually have to make the case for why they should be selected? So far, I don't see what Belinda has done in this regard.

[maplesyrup]

dnsfurlan......if you re-read my recent post you would see that I'm suggesting everything stated here is someone's opinion, including my own. I think I used the word optics in relation to myself - the glass that I'm looking through.

No one has a handle on the truth.

In relation to Belinda Stronach, how refreshing it was to see someone come out and say:

Same-sex marriage, or whatever is a right!

'Stronach: Same-sex unions are a right'

http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Canada/2004/01.../320034-cp.html

'Conservative leadership candidate Belinda Stronach formally kicked off her western campaign swing Wednesday by wading deeper into the potentially divisive issue of same-sex marriage.

Stronach told CJOB radio host Charles Adler that same-sex unions are a human right. "People should be treated equally under the law, whether you're a man, woman, whatever religion you may embrace or whatever culture you come from," said Stronach during her first public event since launching her campaign Tuesday in Aurora, Ont.

But she said she understands that many party members don't share her position and added she will listen to them and would ultimately leave the issue up to a free vote in Parliament.'

Until you realize that Trudeau's statement "the state has no business in the bedrooms of the nation" is where the vast majority of Canadians are, you won't be able to comprehend how fortunate the Conservatives are, to have Stronach as a candidate.

Contrast that statement to Martin's waffling on the issue.

Do you know what happens to people who sit on the fence? They often get splinters you know where.

Cheers.

[dnsfurlan]

So, your view that she is the best person to run the country is based on the fact that she believes gay marriage is a human right?

If Shania Twain came out and said the same thing would that mean she's the best person to run the country?

[maplesyrup]

Maybe, after all Bill Clinton played the saxaphone.

There is no way either Harper or MacKay should have run for the leadership. Think about it.

[dnsfurlan]

Contrast that statement to Martin's waffling on the issue.

Do you know what happens to people who sit on the fence? They often get splinters you know where.

She's been in public life for about two seconds. She hasn't had any time to waffle.

I think we need to slow down a bit here.

I'm still open to the idea of her winning. But I guess I just don't understand how people can come to the opinon that she is PM material based on what we have seen so far - which is just about absolutely nothing.

[dnsfurlan]

There is no way either Harper or MacKay should have run for the leadership. Think about it.

I have.

Mackay's drawbacks became pretty clear.

As for Harper, he's someone who has already been leader fo the Official Opposition and has performed competently, if not sensationally. Why throw that away because someone with a daily blog wants to be PM after having thought about it for a couple of days.