A Fall 2007 Federal Election?

[Michael Bluth]

If Harper thought so much of Mulroney, he probably would have stayed in the party back then. He didn't. I think he joined the Reform in part because of alienation of the west. Now, he is following the same path and I don't think he can satisfy both provinces.You didn't respond to my post earlier, that just about every Canadian PM, except maybe Borden, catered to Quebec, since in terms of votes Quebec seems to be Canada's "swing" province. The Brits' severance of Canada from direct rule, from what I understand, was partially motivated by the insistence, by the "responsible governments" of the day, to spend money on Quebec pork barrel infrastructure rather than contributing to the defense needs that Canadian traders with the Confederate States (the seceded US south) were inflaming.

Why would dobbin respond? You dared to question his all-knowing, always correct hatred for the Conservatives. Remember it isn't about debate or exchanging ideas for certain posters here. It's all about painting the Conservatives in the worst possible light.

[jdobbin]

You didn't respond to my post earlier, that just about every Canadian PM, except maybe Borden, catered to Quebec, since in terms of votes Quebec seems to be Canada's "swing" province. The Brits' severance of Canada from direct rule, from what I understand, was partially motivated by the insistence, by the "responsible governments" of the day, to spend money on Quebec pork barrel infrastructure rather than contributing to the defense needs that Canadian traders with the Confederate States (the seceded US south) were inflaming.

Borden didn't pork barrel for Quebec? Maybe you should read up on the Ross Rifle which Canadians troops used to throw to the ground in World War ! to look for any other available rifle.

Harper quit the PCs because of western alienation. The lasting legacy of Mulroney was the destruction of the PCs. Harper's strongest base remains in the west and he can ill afford to adopt a Quebec First policy.

[jdobbin]

I disagree. There are some ridings in BC where the greens did exceptionally well, and if she wanted to run in one of them, I think she would win, or at least come very close, even if there was a Liberal candidate. But she wants to run in Nova Scotia, believing that raising the party's profile there is more important.

The vote is still too spread out to put a candidate over the top. Even in B.C., the vote is not heavily enough concentrated in individual ridings.

The Greens could win if all major parties were rejected but that is a rare occurrence. Even Reform needed that sort of rejection before they could make gains. I don't see that type of rejection happening. Nor do I see a huge star candidate targeting a riding with a good Green organization in it.

[M.Dancer]

There are some ridings in BC where the greens did exceptionally well........

They didn't get 10% or more in a single BC riding. They didn't even challenge 3rd place once in any single riding.

[fellowtraveller]

Harper's strongest base remains in the west and he can ill afford to adopt a Quebec First policy.

Baloney.

Harpers base may be in the West, but he can still get away, more or less, with whatever it takes to get a majority govt. He is in absolutely no danger of losing his base- at this time.

I encourage everybody to vote for the Greens, since every vote for them comes from either the NDP or Liberals. It doesn't cost the Tories anything.

[M.Dancer]

Baloney.

Harpers base may be in the West, but he can still get away, more or less, with whatever it takes to get a majority govt. He is in absolutely no danger of losing his base- at this time.

I encourage everybody to vote for the Greens, since every vote for them comes from either the NDP or Liberals. It doesn't cost the Tories anything.

Harper has a good chance of taking 1/2 of ontario. He may get shut out of Toronto, but the 613, 705 and 519 could be his.

[old_bold&cold]

I feel that there is only a slim chance of a fall election, even if Harper were to manouver the throne speech towards that end game. There are just too many things for the opposition to lose and the CPC to win. Duceppe made a grave error when he decided to speak out about things that he would want to have in the throne speech or force an election. I am sure he would like to now take all that back. The CPC can make serious promises in the throne speech, where the bloc would look foolish not to support them. The same for the Liberals and NDP. So all this talk about demands is really just posturing for the voters sake. It comes as no surprise that the Government has the money to be able to make tax cuts a real issue, and who can be seen voting against such things. The throne speech can be worded to the CPC own strengths and then make sure that it does not have any of the things the others have asked for, but also give the voters the things they long for. If the opposition calls an election on those terms, it will be easy for Harper to get a majority government and all other parties would suffer. So does anyone think the opposition will pull the trigger on an election?

This whole last 2 months has been played well by Harper and yes the opposition and the media have been used to lay the ground work for this all to happen. I do not think this was all by chance. I am sure Dion, Duceppe and layton all feel like they have been hherded into a corral, that is not for their own good. Time will tell though, but it is something I can admire from watching, and it is not over yet.

[jdobbin]

Baloney.

Harpers base may be in the West, but he can still get away, more or less, with whatever it takes to get a majority govt. He is in absolutely no danger of losing his base- at this time.

I'm sure this is what Mulroney thought at one time. He probably thought he would never lose Alberta.

[Canuck E Stan]

I'm sure this is what Mulroney thought at one time. He probably thought he would never lose Alberta.

Big difference back then.

There was an alternative party for the right wing voters back then.

You're a dreamer if you think Alberta would ever vote in a party that's left-wing, especially one that has another leader from Quebec.

[sharkman]

Yah, well I'm sure Martin thought he could squeak through with a win last election as well. Different situations, Mulroney and Harper. But comparisons will be made, and one day Harper may deserve such heady comments. I don't know if he has the vision for a NAFTA or Free Trade, but time will tell.

[gc1765]

Big difference back then.

There was an alternative party for the right wing voters back then.

You're a dreamer if you think Alberta would ever vote in a party that's left-wing, especially one that has another leader from Quebec.

I'm sure Mulroney was thinking the same thing prior to 1987...

[jdobbin]

Big difference back then.

There was an alternative party for the right wing voters back then.

You're a dreamer if you think Alberta would ever vote in a party that's left-wing, especially one that has another leader from Quebec.

Actually, I was thinking they might vote for an actual party on the right that had western interests in mind.

[jdobbin]

Yah, well I'm sure Martin thought he could squeak through with a win last election as well. Different situations, Mulroney and Harper. But comparisons will be made, and one day Harper may deserve such heady comments. I don't know if he has the vision for a NAFTA or Free Trade, but time will tell.

Martin had majority support in the polls prior to the last election and led in personal support until the RCMP announced the income trust investigation in the middle of the campaign.

I don't know too many on the right wing who want to see the Conservatives to follow Mulroney down to two seats and eventual dissolution.

Edited September 28, 2007 by jdobbin

[kengs333]

They didn't get 10% or more in a single BC riding. They didn't even challenge 3rd place once in any single riding.

They received over 11% in the riding of British Columbia-Southern Interior, and 9.94% in Saanich-Gulf Island. The Green Party candidate in the Alberta riding of Wild Rose placed second over the NDP and Liberal candidates.

[kengs333]

The only chance that the Greens have of winning a seat is if and when we introduce PR at the federal level.

As it should be.

[jdobbin]

They received over 11% in the riding of British Columbia-Southern Interior, and 9.94% in Saanich-Gulf Island. The Green Party candidate in the Alberta riding of Wild Rose placed second over the NDP and Liberal candidates.

That 11% was good enough for 4th place in Southern Interior. Likewise, 9.94% in Saanich-Gulf Islands was also 4th place.

In Wild Rose, Thompson ran against token candidates and captured 72% of the vote. If the Greens expect a breakthrough in that riding, it will go against the traditons of that riding electing only right wing candidates.

[jdobbin]

As it should be.

Proportional representation was tried in Manitoba and turned out to be unfair to urban areas and was scrapped.

Many people often ignore the problems of proportional representation because they believe they will see their party elected. They don't realize that if often is unfair to certain regions.

Edited September 29, 2007 by jdobbin

[capricorn]

Proportional representation was tried in Manitoba and turned out to be unfair urban areas and was scrapped.

Many people often ignore the problems of proportional representation because they believe they will see their party elected. They don't realize that if often is unfair to certain regions.

With MMP, there will be 39 fewer ridings. In the reconstitution of ridings, constituencies will be larger in size. Many have said this will be detrimental to rural areas whose residents are already complaining of poor representation. Consequently, MMP will benefit the larger cities where population is concentrated. I see this as a valid concern raised by rural residents. I am not in a rural area, I reside in the city of Ottawa. (Although many outside this city consider it as a hick town. )

I don't think MMP will be voted in for 2 main reasons.

1. Too many voters don't understand what it is so will vote against it or leave the ballot blank.

2. Too many Ontarians don't like change and will vote status quo.

I voted in the advance poll today and voted against MMP. My main objection is the 39 unelected persons who would be appointed by the party directly. Unelected representatives without constituents to serve who are given voice/vote in the Legislature just doesn't seem democratic.

The same issues will come up with a federal PR electoral system.

Edited September 29, 2007 by capricorn

[jdobbin]

With MMP, there will be 39 fewer ridings. In the reconstitution of ridings, constituencies will be larger in size. Many have said this will be detrimental to rural areas whose residents are already complaining of poor representation. Consequently, MMP will benefit the larger cities where population is concentrated. I see this as a valid concern raised by rural residents. I am not in a rural area, I reside in the city of Ottawa. (Although many outside this city consider it as a hick town. )

I don't know the full proposal for Ontario but your interpretation about it being unfair to rural areas appears sound.

[kengs333]

I don't know the full proposal for Ontario but your interpretation about it being unfair to rural areas appears sound.

No, it's not sound, because people in rural areas would have the option of voting for a candidate and the party that they feel is most concerned about rural issues. Unbelievable how people misrepresent MMP. It's a system that works in other countries, it can work here--if only people would stop being so dense.

[kengs333]

That 11% was good enough for 4th place in Southern Interior. Likewise, 9.94% in Saanich-Gulf Islands was also 4th place.

In Wild Rose, Thompson ran against token candidates and captured 72% of the vote. If the Greens expect a breakthrough in that riding, it will go against the traditons of that riding electing only right wing candidates.

He stated that no candidate in BC received over 10% of the vote, I proved otherwise.

He stated that no candidate anywhere placed higher than fourth, I proved otherwise.

[jbg]

Borden didn't pork barrel for Quebec? Maybe you should read up on the Ross Rifle which Canadians troops used to throw to the ground in World War ! to look for any other available rifle.

I said "maybe Borden" since he did run a primariliy Anglophone coalition (really Canada's only coalition government) with Anglophone Liberals along with the governing Conservatives. Where's your response on the rest of my points?

Harper quit the PCs because of western alienation. The lasting legacy of Mulroney was the destruction of the PCs. Harper's strongest base remains in the west and he can ill afford to adopt a Quebec First policy.

Quebec will always get more than its share, the way your country is built. In our country, small states get more than their share of Federal spending. How much anti-terror aid do you think Wyoming really needs?

[jdobbin]

He stated that no candidate in BC received over 10% of the vote, I proved otherwise.

He stated that no candidate anywhere placed higher than fourth, I proved otherwise.

I never contended either. I do hold that the Green vote will have be a lot more heavily concentrated in certain ridings to be able to win a seat in the present system.

[capricorn]

No, it's not sound, because people in rural areas would have the option of voting for a candidate and the party that they feel is most concerned about rural issues. Unbelievable how people misrepresent MMP. It's a system that works in other countries, it can work here--if only people would stop being so dense.

You completely missed the point. Rural residents would be disadvantaged because their numbers are way too low to compete with the higher number of voters in cities. Under MMP any party/candidate advocating for rural priorities would be vastly outnumbered by the more numerous votes of folks in cities where rural issues are of no concern and would be drowned out.

It stands to reason the FPTP system benefits rural residents.

One, the size of the riding remains constant and is not enlarged. Representation is not diluted as it would be with a larger riding under MMP.

Two, the present system works in their favour in having a local candidate/party elected that is dedicated to advancing their interests.

Three, the odds that any of the 39 unelected representatives would be speaking up for rural residents is nil.

What is the use of having an option if that option guarantees it will not yield any benefit and is in fact detrimental?

[jdobbin]

I said "maybe Borden" since he did run a primariliy Anglophone coalition (really Canada's only coalition government) with Anglophone Liberals along with the governing Conservatives. Where's your response on the rest of my points?

Quebec will always get more than its share, the way your country is built. In our country, small states get more than their share of Federal spending. How much anti-terror aid do you think Wyoming really needs?

What is your response that a vote is not necessary to declare no confidence?

I can't think of a prime minister who hasn't had to do curry favour in Quebec to win enough seats to take power. The problem for Harper is that he once quit the PCs because of western alienation. He runs into problems when he tries to fix things like the "fiscal imbalance" and it appears to be good for Quebec, not so good for others.