A Fall 2007 Federal Election?

[gc1765]

Why would Dion agree to an election?

I don't think he wants an election, but on the other hand if he thinks the knives are coming out, he might want to take a shot at becoming prime minister while he still has the chance. It would be a gamble, but I don't know how much he has to lose.

[August1991]

Do you think Dion wants an election?

The opposition can only force an election if all three parties agree.

Why would Dion agree to an election?

We can agree that it's now up to Dion.

Dion has made it plain that he will follow three basic principles: economic growth, social justice and environmental protection. Dion has an unnamed fourth principle, the reason he got into politics in the first place, and that's Canadian unity. On this point, Dion is not as doctrinaire as Trudeau (Dion favoured Meech Lake) but he's just as stubborn.

I am reasonably certain that Harper will put a reference to limiting the federal spending power in the Throne Speech. This will not go far enough for Duceppe, but it will go too far Dion. This is not the kind of issue on which Dion will compromise.

Similarly, Dion has already said that he wants the amended version of C-30 to be put back on the order paper. This too, environmental protection, is not something about which Dion will compromise. If we take their words on C-30 at face value, it's already a given that the Liberals will vote against the government.

So, does Dion want an election? Maybe yes, maybe no. But that's not how he'll view it. Dion is principled and he won't vote for something that he thinks is wrong.

I can add that Dion has not had an easy time as leader (what leader of the opposition ever does) and I'm sure he wants to get into action. His interview in Macleans makes plain that he is impatient to reveal the Liberal platform. He sees an election as fishing or cutting bait. (I referred to it as quitte ou double above.)

Here's how Dion described Harper's approach to federalism and specifically the idea of restricting the federal power to spend:

It’s the game that he tried to play when he went in Quebec City [for a Dec. 19, 2005 speech]. "Canada is unfair, too centralized, it cannot stay this way, elect me." He’s elected. Deliver. He doesn’t know what to do. It is time to advocate the case for Canada. We have a good federation. A good country. We have ideas to improve it, but it is not true that to be elected you have to be so negative about your federation.

...

He just says, "It’s unfair, you’re right to think so, elect me and I’ll deliver." It looks good, but at the expense of the reputation of the federation in Quebec. I would say, if you have an idea to make the federation work better, let’s go. I’m a good partner for provinces. I will always respect their jurisdiction. I will respect federal jurisdiction as well. This game, to commit without knowing where you’re going to do, I’m not accepting that. I’m worried what the Prime Minister will do now that he’s trapped on this issue.

Macleans

In my mind, Harper will put something into the Throne Speech about this and Dion will have to vote against.

I don't think he wants an election, but on the other hand if he thinks the knives are coming out, he might want to take a shot at becoming prime minister while he still has the chance. It would be a gamble, but I don't know how much he has to lose.

I don't think that is a factor. I frankly think that Dion will be leader for at least another election after this one, if not a third. Edited September 23, 2007 by August1991

[gc1765]

Dion is principled and he won't vote for something that he thinks is wrong.

Interesting analysis. It will be interesting to see whether you are correct.

I don't think that is a factor.

I don't really think so either, but I just thought I'd throw it out there.

[Michael Bluth]

We can agree that it's now up to Dion.

So, does Dion want an election? Maybe yes, maybe no. But that's not how he'll view it. Dion is principled and he won't vote for something that he thinks is wrong.

I can add that Dion has not had an easy time as leader (what leader of the opposition ever does) and I'm sure he wants to get into action. His interview in Macleans makes plain that he is impatient to reveal the Liberal platform. He sees an election as fishing or cutting bait. (I referred to it as quitte ou double above.)

In my mind, Harper will put something into the Throne Speech about this and Dion will have to vote against.

I don't think that is a factor. I frankly think that Dion will be leader for at least another election after this one, if not a third.

An election this fall could be a good thing for Dion. It's as if he is turning his back on English Canada. This response to a question about his problems with English is telling (from the Maclean's article August posted - btw thanks for drawing my attention to that August).

how many Canadians have English as a second language? More and more. So I think they identify with me. Not only francophones, a lot of Canadians speak English with their own accent. But I will do my best to have a less strong French accent. It will never be as good as Stephen Harper; he will be better for Fox television. But I think I will please more of the people.

Let's examine the situation Dion is in. He's a Francophone whose party couldn't poll ten percent in the two heavily Francophone by-elections that were held last week. He admitted in the biggest news magazine in the country that Anglophones don't identify with him. His targeted voters are allophones.

wtf was with the Fox television jab? Is he so bereft of ideas he has to refer to a US television station apropos of nothing?

If that's the best that Dion has something tells me the Conservatives would welcome an election.

[gc1765]

He admitted in the biggest news magazine in the country that Anglophones don't identify with him.

Where did he say anglophones don't identify with him?

[Michael Bluth]

Where did he say anglophones don't identify with him?

He never did. His admission was quite easily inferred from the context of the article. Let me walk you through that.

Question: How much do you think you need to improve (your English)?

SD: The aim is to be able to be understood when people are in their car with the traffic, it’s noisy, and on the radio they have a clip of Stéphane Dion and they should be able to understand. But, this being said, how many Canadians have English as a second language?

The admission was that English speakers cannot understand him listening to the radio in the car.

Then he segued to a discussion how allophones identify with him.

Pretty heavily inferred that Dion was admitting anglos don't identify with him. If not, why would he bother to try and improve his English?

[gc1765]

He never did. His admission was quite easily inferred from the context of the article.

For someone who constantly criticizes jdobbin for misrepresenting the facts, you are being a bit of a hypocrite here.

Pretty heavily inferred that Dion was admitting anglos don't identify with him. If not, why would he bother to try and improve his English?

I don't know, why did Gretzky continue to try and improve at hockey. Would you say hockey players didn't identify with him?

[Michael Bluth]

For someone who constantly criticizes jdobbin for misrepresenting the facts, you are being a bit of a hypocrite here.

I don't know, why did Gretzky continue to try and improve at hockey. Would you say hockey players didn't identify with him?

What?

When I point out jdobbin's chronic misrepresentations I explain why the given statement is false.

Dion's English is self-admittedly bad. After admitting that he minimized the importance of speaking English while throwing in a jab about Fox News apropos of nothing. Do explain how I misrepresented this....

[gc1765]

When I point out jdobbin's chronic misrepresentations I explain why the given statement is false.

You claimed that Dion admitted he does not connect with anglophones. He did no such thing. You think he implied that.

After admitting that he minimized the importance of speaking English...

He minimized the importance of speaking English by saying he is working hard to improve his English?

[jdobbin]

That's an interesting (and intelligent IMV) take on the question. I think too that the Liberals would be foolish to go for an election now. (I think too the BQ would also be foolish to vote for one.)

Yet, Harper may choose to set a Throne Speech so that both the BQ and the PLC vote against the government and cause an election. (Layton wants an election now!)

If Harper chooses his issue well, he can provoke the BQ and PLC. But there's more. I think Duceppe really wants to debate the issue of sovereignty. He's tired of these tergiversations. He was going to run for leader of PQ, and then withdrew. Enough is enough. As to Dion, surely, he must be thinking about quitte ou double.

If we have an election, there's a good chance, given the polls, that we'll be back at a minority government. I think Dion can consider that to be a victory.

We'll see if Harper really wants to provoke an election. At 32% in the polls, he would have to be expecting a lot of growth to win a majority. The Tories have been higher in the polls than they are now and didn't pull the plug then. The Quebec elections haven't changed those overall numbers so far.

[sharkman]

We'll see if Harper really wants to provoke an election. At 32% in the polls, he would have to be expecting a lot of growth to win a majority. The Tories have been higher in the polls than they are now and didn't pull the plug then. The Quebec elections haven't changed those overall numbers so far.

You can keep clinging to your polling data, but the facts are the Liberals are floundering and Dion has become a lame duck. The by-elections in Quebec were very revealing. The knives are out for Dion with contenders for his job pulling strings in the background. The NDP are attracting disenchanted liberal voters as well. In this mornings paper (sunday) Duceppe is warning that he could trigger an election. Perfect.

[jdobbin]

You can keep clinging to your polling data, but the facts are the Liberals are floundering and Dion has become a lame duck. The by-elections in Quebec were very revealing. The knives are out for Dion with contenders for his job pulling strings in the background. The NDP are attracting disenchanted liberal voters as well. In this mornings paper (sunday) Duceppe is warning that he could trigger an election. Perfect.

And I keep asking where the growth is coming from. Do you have some insight into where Harper is to get his majority numbers? You think Harper is going to sweep in Quebec? Across Canada? Since you don't believe the polls, how are you making your evaluation of the situation? The by-elections only tell the tale of three ridings in Quebec.

The last poll released this week shows the Tories at 32%. Every pollster has said that it isn't enough for a majority. You seem to think that as soon as the writ is dropped, Harper will cruise to victory.

Edited September 23, 2007 by jdobbin

[Michael Bluth]

You can keep clinging to your polling data, but the facts are the Liberals are floundering and Dion has become a lame duck. The by-elections in Quebec were very revealing. The knives are out for Dion with contenders for his job pulling strings in the background. The NDP are attracting disenchanted liberal voters as well. In this mornings paper (sunday) Duceppe is warning that he could trigger an election. Perfect.

None of dobbin's polls have been taken since the by-election results.

Those are the key. A poll taken after that point will indeed be revealing.

There are a lot of articles about the troubles Dion is facing now. An honest poster wouldn't minimize the influence of the Quebec results and would recognize it is possible that something has changed.

[jbg]

I don't think he wants an election, but on the other hand if he thinks the knives are coming out, he might want to take a shot at becoming prime minister while he still has the chance. It would be a gamble, but I don't know how much he has to lose.

I'm not a Canadian so help me on this one. Isn't it a tradition that a leader gets one (or more, as did John Napier Turner) chances to lead his or her party through an election?

What he'd have to lose is that at this point, he'd be unlikely to win his "one shot".

Edited September 24, 2007 by jbg

[jdobbin]

I'm not a Canadian so help me on this one. Isn't it a tradition that a leader gets one (or more, as did John Napier Turner) chances to lead his or her party through an election?

What he'd have to lose is that at this point, he'd be unlikely to win his "one shot".

There is an automatic leadership review following an election. Turner survived a leadership challenge by Chretien in 1986 mainly because Chretien had nothing to offer the convention in Ottawa when he arrived.

By 1988, the Liberals were enjoying majority support in the polls but continued infighting partly eroded that support and Mulroney was able to win another majority.

There is no guarantee that Dion cannot be challenged by caucus and replaced if they feel he is a detriment to a general election. If there is no election in the fall and the Liberals lose by-elections in Ontario and B.C., all bets are off.

[jdobbin]

Dion, unlike his Opposition brethren, has said he will wait for the throne speech to make a decision on how to vote.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/070923/...s_throne_speech

Liberal Leader Stephane Dion says he won't decide whether to bring down the Tory government until he sees next month's throne speech.

Dion said he'll assess Prime Minister Stephen Harper's plans for the environment and Afghanistan before deciding how Liberals will vote.

"We'll see what's in the throne speech," Dion told reporters Sunday. "There's no question of rejecting the throne speech without seeing it."

The Liberals want the Tory government to make a firm commitment to withdrawing combat troops from Afghanistan in early 2009 and to reintroduce clean air legislation that failed to make it into law during the last session.

Without these elements and plans to combat poverty, "you can understand we will not be able to rise to support such a throne speech," Dion said.

Harper needs the votes of at least one opposition party to survive a confidence vote on the Oct. 16 speech.

We'll see if Harper wants to provoke an election. If the wrong issue is chosen by either side, it costs the election. Harper has to be as careful as Dion in that regard.

Edited September 24, 2007 by jdobbin

[jdobbin]

In terms of provoking things, Harper has to consider that if he wants to win 50 seats in Quebec, how much can he alienate other provinces like Saskatchewan, Manitoba and the Atlantic provinces.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/070923/...harper_spending

Stephen Harper's Conservatives made it to first base in Quebec during the 2006 election by promising to fix the so-called fiscal imbalance.

They got to second base in last week's Quebec byelections, largely on the strength of the prime minister's declaration that the Quebecois constitute a nation within a united Canada.

Next up to bat: The federal spending power. Harper is hoping a gesture to limit this long-standing source of federal-provincial friction will give him the muscle to hit a home run in the next election, capturing enough seats in Quebec to secure his coveted majority government.

But it could prove a risky gambit. If Harper goes far enough to satisfy Quebec, other provinces may well cry foul. And with an election possible as early as this fall, he certainly doesn't need another backlash like the howls of outrage that greeted his fiscal-imbalance fix in Nova Scotia, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador.

[maldon_road]

The Liberals do not want an election before 2008. They need a new calendar year to draw enough finances to meet the election spending maximum. They are also waiting to see if the Commissioner of Elections Canada refers the Conservatives election advertising spending to the Director of Public Prosecutions. Lastly, they know that each initiative Harper releases will either alienate his base or shorten the tent.

The worst thing to have at election time is a divisive record to run on.

As for the Conservatives, it will be interesting to see what they dish-out with the Speech from the Throne. I have my suspicions, but I sure as Hell hope there are no hints of Constitutional overtures - the country simply wouldn't survive it.

Dion is giving himself wiggle-room. He seems to be concentrtaing on Afghanistan rather than Kyoto and I'm sure whatever is in the Speech from the Throne he will be able to "live with". Harper may not be the most popular PM ever but there is no real dislike of him. If the Libs are stupid enough to force an election Harper will get back in.

[Michael Bluth]

Dion is giving himself wiggle-room. He seems to be concentrtaing on Afghanistan rather than Kyoto and I'm sure whatever is in the Speech from the Throne he will be able to "live with". Harper may not be the most popular PM ever but there is no real dislike of him. If the Libs are stupid enough to force an election Harper will get back in.

Very little chance for the Liberals to win an election is why we won't see one.

The interesting thing with the wiggle-room Dion has given himself, is that it will not require any change from the Conservatives.

They have said repeatedly that they will leave in February 2009 without the consent of Parliament to change the date. Re-iterating that alone will 'allow' Dion to accept the Speech from the Throne.

[jdobbin]

Conservatives prepare for election.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

The Conservatives have been told to ready themselves for a mid-October federal election, says a report.

Sources have confirmed to the Toronto Star that an election could be called three days after Prime Minister Stephen Harper delivers his minority government's throne speech on Oct. 16.

The newspaper reports that the Tories have already reserved two buses currently in use by Ontario Progressive Conservative Leader John Tory -- who is campaigning ahead of the Oct. 10 provincial election.

Two more Greyhound buses are also being prepared and "wrapped" with party logos and large photos of Harper, reports the Star.

In early September, Harper decided to delay the opening of the fall session of Parliament by a month.

The government has called the first confidence vote on the throne speech for Oct. 18, setting up the possibility of an election if the opposition parties vote against it.

CTV's Robert Fife, in New York for Harper's visit to the UN, said the prime minister would not comment Monday on the possibility of a fall election.

However, "behind the scenes that's all (Harper's) officials are talking about, they know that the government could very well fall," Fife said Tuesday.

On Sunday, Dion told reporters he will wait until after the throne speech to decide if he'll vote down the Conservative government.

Dion said he will need to hear Harper's response to four key issues before deciding how to vote. They include:

* Canada notifying NATO that it will end its combat mission in Afghanistan in 2009. The government must make clear the wording of the motion, and confirm how it will vote.

* A commitment to reintroducing Bill C-30 in the new parliamentary season, which is designed to protect the environment and fight the effects of climate change.

* Addressing the manufacturing challenges facing Canada's economy.

* Setting out a plan to combat poverty in Canada.

It sounds like the Tories will try to provoke a vote to bring them down.

[August1991]

Very little chance for the Liberals to win an election is why we won't see one.

The interesting thing with the wiggle-room Dion has given himself, is that it will not require any change from the Conservatives.

Bluth, you make it sound as if the decision is entirely in the hands of Dion.

I think Harper has set this up well. It looks like Dion wants an election when in fact it's Harper that wants it.

Anyway, I think that it's a foregone conclusion now. Dion wants the modified Clean Air Act back on the order paper and Harper has refused to do it. Neither will likely back down on this issue.

[jdobbin]

I think Harper has set this up well. It looks like Dion wants an election when in fact it's Harper that wants it.

Anyway, I think that it's a foregone conclusion now. Dion wants the modified Clean Air Act back on the order paper and Harper has refused to do it. Neither will likely back down on this issue.

It may be that Harper calls an election whatever the result are for the throne speech. He could go to the Governor-General and say that he has lot the confidence of Parliament despite the vote. His reasoning might be that the Opposition will re-introduce the Clean Air Act regardless of whether the government does so.

[maldon_road]

Conservatives prepare for election.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

It sounds like the Tories will try to provoke a vote to bring them down.

Or at least that is what they want the Oppos to think.

[jdobbin]

Or at least that is what they want the Oppos to think.

Harper may call an election based on confidence despite what the throne speech result is.

The interpretation on confidence and fixed election dates is wide enough to drive an election bus through it. While votes on money bills results in automatic election if lost, other matters of confidence don't seem bound by votes at all.

The Governor-General is not bound by the legislation either as she has a constitutional right to dissolve Parliament based on her first minister's recommendation.

[maldon_road]

Harper may call an election based on confidence despite what the throne speech result is.

The interpretation on confidence and fixed election dates is wide enough to drive an election bus through it. While votes on money bills results in automatic election if lost, other matters of confidence don't seem bound by votes at all.

The Governor-General is not bound by the legislation either as she has a constitutional right to dissolve Parliament based on her first minister's recommendation.

If you recall, last Spring, just before the summer adjournment, House business degenerated into bedlam with all sorts of maneuvers being used to shut down committee work. If that should happen in the new session Harper would have an argument to pull the plug.