A cabinet shuffle

[jdobbin]

I am very interested in learning more about Canada and its politics; subjects about which I know little.

If I want to listen to a petty dispute, I can listen to a typical employee squabble at a professional office or g to a Grade 5 recess. Or listen to my 11 and 10 year olds fight over the Nintendo.

I think you should probably try another thread.

[capricorn]

Here's the latest on the anticipated cabinet shuffle, expected in the about 10 days.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

[Michael Bluth]

Interesting story. Thanks for that.

Two questions come from that article.

Who takes over Indian Affairs if Prentice takes Defence and which portfolios are "less onerous" than Heritage?

[capricorn]

Interesting story. Thanks for that.

Two questions come from that article.

Who takes over Indian Affairs if Prentice takes Defence and which portfolios are "less onerous" than Heritage?

Less onerous? Gotta think about that one.

Perhaps Harper will bring in someone new for a vacant cabinet post. I like Diane Ablonczy. Any thougths?

[jbg]

Who takes over Indian Affairs if Prentice takes Defence and which portfolios are "less onerous" than Heritage?

I'd suggest Sheila Copps for Heritage.

[Michael Bluth]

Less onerous? Gotta think about that one.

Perhaps Harper will bring in someone new for a vacant cabinet post. I like Diane Ablonczy. Any thougths?

The only thing holding back Ablonczy is geography. A third cabinet minister from Calgary is a little much.

There are a number of talented MPs here in Alberta being held back because of a numbers game.

[ScottSA]

The only thing holding back Ablonczy is geography. A third cabinet minister from Calgary is a little much.

There are a number of talented MPs here in Alberta being held back because of a numbers game.

Ablonczy is a lightweight.

[capricorn]

Ablonczy is a lightweight.

But...has she really ever been tested beyond being an effective mouthpiece for spreading the Conservative platform? She's a woman and Harper could do with more female representation in cabinet. I think she is a good debater. I see an upside here.

I understand Michael's concern about western over-representation, I had thought of that too. Sometimes, you have to roll the dice and roll with the punches.

[capricorn]

There are a number of talented MPs here in Alberta being held back because of a numbers game.

Who would they be Michael? You're closer to the action than I am. Thanks.

Edited August 5, 2007 by capricorn

[Michael Bluth]

IMO

Leon Benoit - Vegriville - Minister of Agriculture or International Trade?

Rob Merrifield - Yellowhead - Minister of Health?

Laurie Hawn - Edmonton Centre - Minister of Defence? Foreign Affairs?

Rahim Jaffer - Edmonton Strathcona - young, telegenic, articulate lots of possible roles.

Of course there are a number of long time MPs who thought they deserved a cabinet shot, but quickly came to realize the ugly truth. Williams? Obhrai? Rajotte? Hanger?

Brian Jean sent Harper a DVD as to why he deserved to be in cabinet just after the election. Whatever...

[Topaz]

The problem with Harper's govt in my view is HARPER!! HE tells the ministers what to say, how to vote, chooses when to talk to the media, wouldn't lower the flag for the soldiers returning in caskets, he definitely comes across as a dictator and Canadians won't stand for that ever!! As far Harper himself goes, when he was in S. America and was checking out their military, he reminded me of De gaulle by the way he walked straight up, stomach and his face with his nose sticking out just like De gaulle. The burning question is how much mousse or hairspray does he use????

[jdobbin]

It sounds like the cabinet could get bigger if only one person is being dropped because of their retirement.

There are a lot of hungry mouths to feed on the benches and it gets harder to reel people in who have lost hope they will ever be more than an MP. In some cases, it becomes liberating and they act more diligently on issues important to them or their constituency even when it chafes against party policy. We have witnessed this in every government, provincial or federal and with every political party.

Party discipline only holds if there is a belief that the party win win office, win a majority and have a place of importance somewhere for the MP.

[Michael Bluth]

Another good post from Paul Wells. This one dead on the topic of cabinet shuffles.

1. Until the prime minister actually starts calling ministers to tell them to report to Rideau Hall, all rumours are meaningless.

There aren't a lot of choices more personal than the choice of whose advice you'll take on key files and whom you can trust to run departments while you aren't paying attention. And loose-lipped prime ministers cause a hell of a lot of trouble when they speculate randomly about who might go where. So they don't do it. Even Paul Martin didn't. So when some minister is "widely seen to be in trouble," he is widely seen to be in trouble by people who cannot know what the PM thinks on the subject.

That doesn't mean that, say, Gordon O'Connor won't move; it just means you and I don't know whether he will. And the ones pretending to know are the ones who knew all about that springtime federal election a few months ago.

2. Every minister who moves leaves a hole.

Speculation always centres on so-and-so who's "got to go." Speculation is always very weak on (a) where he'll go and ( who could reasonably go where he just was.

3. A cabinet isn't a baseball team.

By which I mean, its composition is not written in a rule book. There could be a new Interior Minister, or Science Minister, or Secretary of State for Latin America. Positions can vanish, as the Public Health Minister's position did when Harper replaced Martin. A prime minister who wants to change the direction of his government can begin his innovations with the structure of his cabinet, although one of the many surprises about Stephen Harper is that, in power, he doesn't seem to have much taste for innovation, apart from his intriguing Senate-reform game, which he keeps to himself.

4. So there's no point speculating.

Which is why I do it as rarely as I can.

[geoffrey]

IMO

Leon Benoit - Vegriville - Minister of Agriculture or International Trade?

Do we need a Premier and a Minister from Vegriville, population, what, 2000?

Rob Merrifield - Yellowhead - Minister of Health?

Laurie Hawn - Edmonton Centre - Minister of Defence? Foreign Affairs?

Good calls here.

Rahim Jaffer - Edmonton Strathcona - young, telegenic, articulate lots of possible roles.

All style, no substance. Meeting him didn't give me the impression of someone capable of setting policy for a department.

--

Obhrai may get in on the ethnic card, terrible to say, but it would look good.

Kenney should be in cabinet (beyond his silly role now).

[Canuck E Stan]

Ablonczy is a lightweight.

I think you're wrong there.

Diane has a teaching and law degree.Plus she has professional and business background which includes teaching elementary and junior high school.At one point she managed a grain farm operation and built a successful law practice.

While in opposition she was a health critic and spent a lot of time studying the European model for health care,plus she was also immigration and government accountability critic. She has a lot of respect from MP's.

She's definitely taking a major post in cabinet.

My guess is either Health or Immigration.

Edited August 7, 2007 by Canuck E Stan

[Michael Bluth]

Obhrai may get in on the ethnic card, terrible to say, but it would look good.

Obhrai?

Not in a million years. No chance at all. Talk about somebody incapable of setting policy for a department. Way too mired in the old country way of doing things. If Harper had to name six of the eight Calgary MPs to cabinet Obhrai still wouldn't get in. (He might sneak in past Anders, but not ahead of anybody else.)

Harper has proven he isn't willing to play the ethnic card. Oda's the only vizmin in Cabinet now. Her and Chong were the only two named in Feb '06.

My guess is that if it looks like we might really make it to Fall 2009, both Obhrai and Hangar might decide against running again.

Edited August 7, 2007 by Michael Bluth

[geoffrey]

Too bad, I enjoy Hangar's rants on the news. Hopefully he sticks around to do that.

He did a good one tonight about the crime rate not actually going down, just people have no faith to report crime in Calgary to the police anymore. Good on ol' Art.

Again, not leadership material, not in Ottawa anyways.

[tom cody]

Predictions on how the cabinet shuffle will go, note the absence of Carol Skelton who has announced she will not seek re-election and Bev Oda who has been inept as a cabinet minister

Agriculture: Gary Lunn

ACOA: Loyola Hearn

Canadian Heritage and the Status of Women: Helena Guergis

Citizenship and Immigration: Diane Finley

Economic Development for the Regions of Quebec- J.P. Blackburn

Environment: John Baird

Finance: Jim Flaherty

Fisheries and Oceans: Loyola Hearn

Foreign Affairs: Stockwell Day

Health: Josee Verner

Human Resources and Skills Development: Monte Solberg

Indian Affairs and Northern Development: Gerry Ritz

Intergovernmental Affairs: Rona Ambrose

International Cooperation: Jason Kenney

International Trade: Tony Clement

Justice: Bob Nicholson

Labour: J-P Blackburn

Government House Leader: Peter Van Loan

National Defence: Lawrence Cannon

National Revenue: Chuck Strahl

Natural Resources: Greg Thompson

Public Safety: Peter Mackay

Public Works: Michael Fortier

Transport: Jim Prentice

Treasury Board: Vic Toews

Veterans Affairs: Gordon O'connor

[M.Dancer]

Do you think Loyola is up to two cabinet posts?

[Leafless]

The problem with Harper's govt in my view is HARPER!! HE tells the ministers what to say, how to vote

Then what exactly is the point of a cabinet shuffle?

[Michael Bluth]

Am I reading this correctly? Jim Prentice is going to get shuffled out of DIAND into Transportation?

The only reason he's in a lower profile portfolio is he has a lot of experience in the area.

*If* he leaves DIAND it's to something higher profile and he officially becomes deputy PM.

[daniel]

Like I always had said, if Conservatives don't have budgets to cut and programs to slash, they really don't know what else to do.

[jbg]

Predictions on how the cabinet shuffle will go, note the absence of Carol Skelton who has announced she will not seek re-election and Bev Oda who has been inept as a cabinet minister

Where do you see Emerson? Lost in the shuffle?

[geoffrey]

Where do you see Emerson? Lost in the shuffle?

Nah. Emerson will stay put. He's too valuable to lose. The CPC don't have many real world business types, can't give up one of their strongest. He'll remain in his spot. Plus moving him looks bad.

Still haven't heard anything about Fortier.

There is a Montreal election that Fortier isn't contesting. A major broken promise and breech of accountability on Harper's end.

[B. Max]

Like I always had said, if Conservatives don't have budgets to cut and programs to slash, they really don't know what else to do.

Well they haven't been doing to good of a job at it. One party member on another board said he was contacted by the party, and they were looking for a donation. They started off by saying it's been a long time since you gave anything to the conservative party. He replied, it's been a long time since they did anything conservative.