Osama bin Laden is dead

[bush_cheney2004]

I am sure he would have picked up lots of English , working hand and glove with the US, Britian etc.,

It still wouldn't matter. Osama Bin Hidin' has become co-opted and discarded as yesterday's news by the very same pop culture he railed against. So sad for Osama....poor quality videos from the dead can't compete with Britney Spears sans underwear in the news cycle.

[kimmy]

That's what we told you several threads ago. Osama who?

While that may be the case at the moment, it was certainly not the case in November 2004, which is what we were discussing.

You're probably the only person on the planet who doesn't think the Bin Laden 2004 tape had an impact on the 2004 presidential election. I doubt you can even keep a straight face when you're typing that.

Osama bin forgotten?

Osama bin longa dead?

Hey if Osama is "addressing" America, why doesn't he speak English?!

The rich Saudi, can't speak English?

The CIA operative, covert boy, from Afghanistan to Kosovo.

That's quite non-credible isn't it?

I am sure he would have picked up lots of English , working hand and glove with the US, Britian etc.,

There's no evidence that the US ever worked directly with Bin Laden. US support for the anti-Soviet groups in Afghanistan was funnelled through Pakistan.

Nor is there any record of him ever having spoken English:

The FBI describes Osama bin Laden as tall and thin, between 6'4" and 6'6" (193–198 cm) in height and weighing about 165 pounds (75 kg). Interviewees of Lawrence Wright, on the other hand, describe him as quite slender, but not particularly tall.[25] He has an olive complexion, is left-handed, and usually walks with a cane. He wears a plain white turban and no longer dons the traditional Saudi male headdress, generally white.[26]

In terms of personality, bin Laden is described as a soft-spoken, mild mannered man;[27] and despite his rhetoric, he is said to be charming, polite, and respectful. According to Michael Scheuer, bin Laden claims to speak only Arabic, though others, such as Rhimaulah Yusufzai and Peter Bergen, believe he understands English.[28] However, in a 1998 interview, he had English questions translated for him into Arabic.[29]

...and no reason for him to, really.

-k

[bush_cheney2004]

You're probably the only person on the planet who doesn't think the Bin Laden 2004 tape had an impact on the 2004 presidential election. I doubt you can even keep a straight face when you're typing that.

And you're probably wrong. Some people on the planet neither knew or cared about the "2004 presidential election"....even in (gasp) Canada.

President Bush won fair and square in 2004, and nothing you pretend can change that.....Osama or no Osama.

[August1991]

The CIA go to painstaking effort to create this sophisticated fake... but forget to digitally turn his beard grey?

Why would he color his beard? Maybe they were hoping it would hide how old and feeble he is looking.

Would they create a fake video to try and convince internet conspiracy buffs? I doubt it. These people are clearly beyond convincing.

The generally blase response to the video does suggest that Osama's no longer the big deal he was a few years ago, though. People are like "yeah, whatever. Go back to your cave, old man."

-k

My thought too.

I figured that the CIA guys wouldn't have the sense to change the colour of his beard. But bin Laden's vanity would make him ask for a tube of Grecian Formula 19.

All of the conspiracy theories miss the point that Americans can't keep secrets. Everyone now knows who Deep Throat was and that secret only required the silence of two people. Americans blab. In fact, they blab too much.

If the CIA had created a bin Laden in the laboratory, someone would have blabbed by now. Anyway, based on my experience, I don't think the US government works this way at all - pinpoint execution of carefully coordinated plans is just not part of US bureaucracy. If I were looking for evil in US government bureaucracy, I'd look elsewhere.

Now then. Has anyone considered the possibility that bin Laden is dead but someone else (not the CIA) created this video? Who?

Edited September 9, 2007 by August1991

[Guest American Woman]

You're probably the only person on the planet who doesn't think the Bin Laden 2004 tape had an impact on the 2004 presidential election. I doubt you can even keep a straight face when you're typing that.

I don't think it did either, and I don't know anyone who even mentioned it in regards to who they voted for. In fact, I don't recall anyone even talking about. It really had little impact on people's lives, just as this one has had little, if any, impact. No one I know has even mentioned this tape, either.

I figured that the CIA guys wouldn't have the sense to change the colour of his beard. But bin Laden's vanity would make him ask for a tube of Grecian Formula 19.

I've read that some 'experts' think the beard is a fake; that bin Laden has perhaps shaved his beard to blend in and stay 'hidden', which makes sense. The beard looks fake to me.

[bush_cheney2004]

I don't think it did either, and I don't know anyone who even mentioned it in regards to who they voted for. In fact, I don't recall anyone even talking about. It really had little impact on people's lives, just as this one has had little, if any, impact. No one I know has even mentioned this tape, either.

Agreed...it really didn't have a significant impact at all, so bitter and devisive was the 2004 campaign without any consideration for Osama Who. My working theory is that some people try to rationalize the "astounding" American electorate's decision to re-elect President Bush by pointing to an Osama video, when the truth can easily be found in the very poor contender named John Kerry.

It's like saying that the CPC turfed the Grits because of an Osama video....ridiculous.

[jdobbin]

I've read that some 'experts' think the beard is a fake; that bin Laden has perhaps shaved his beard to blend in and stay 'hidden', which makes sense. The beard looks fake to me.

He couldn't work as a Walmart greeter in Arkansas if he had the beard so he shaved it off.

Most of the patrons of Walmart say he has kind eyes.

[kimmy]

I don't think it did either, and I don't know anyone who even mentioned it in regards to who they voted for. In fact, I don't recall anyone even talking about. It really had little impact on people's lives, just as this one has had little, if any, impact.

Neither yourself nor Dick have ever addressed the 6 point swing in Bush's favor from the last poll before the video to the first poll after the video.

(hmm. What was Bush's margin of victory, again?)

President Bush won fair and square in 2004, and nothing you pretend can change that.....Osama or no Osama.

I never claimed it wasn't "fair and square". Voters are entitled to consider the news of the day when the cast the ballot. Whether it be more threats from a camel-herder in a cave or the RCMP investigation of a morbidly obese finance minister.

But this repeated claim that Americans did not care about OBL by 2004 is pure revisionism.

-k

[bush_cheney2004]

But this repeated claim that Americans did not care about OBL by 2004 is pure revisionism.

President Bush prevailed in 2004 because of domestic and foreign policy issues, not the least of which was "family values" legislation in many so called "red" states. It was nearly a re-run of the 2000 election, when Osama was certainly not a factor.

Only swing voters were in play, and one cannot decide that only an Osama video won them over in the face of Kerry campaign disaster(s).

[kuzadd]

Osama bin dead for a good long while now: the jet setter , Rich saudi, well educated, covert boy, could in all likelihood speak English, regardless of what he "claims".

He is university educated, (engineering degree, I believe) affluent, and well traveled.

Oh and in the video he gestures , when he is actually moving, with his right hand.

odd for a lefty.

And what with OBL and the CIA both training the KLA in Kosovo,during the same timne frame, nevermind the Afghan adventures, nah, there was no direct contact between America and OBL , it was all "coincidence".

http://www.newhumanist.com/osama.html

In 1986, CIA chief William Casey had stepped up the war against the Soviet Union by taking three significant, but at that time highly secret, measures. He had persuaded the US Congress to provide the Mujaheddin with American-made Stinger anti-aircraft missiles to shoot down Soviet planes and provide US advisers to train the guerrillas.

That wikipedia, is so darn unreliable, and so heavily censored.

It's really become a non-credible resource.

Edited September 9, 2007 by kuzadd

[kuzadd]

It still wouldn't matter. Osama Bin Hidin' has become co-opted and discarded as yesterday's news by the very same pop culture he railed against. So sad for Osama....poor quality videos from the dead can't compete with Britney Spears sans underwear in the news cycle.

I would agree, but, that is because, IMO, most people realize OBL is dead, long dead.

It simply stretches credibility to think after ALL this time, he is still alive and free.

Besides he just isn't producing flashy enough videos!

In fact he is downright comatose in this last one, he ain't moving through entire chunks of it, his lips aren't moving , his head ain't moving.

I watched the entire 20 plus minutes of monotony.

[Guest American Woman]

Neither yourself nor Dick have ever addressed the 6 point swing in Bush's favor from the last poll before the video to the first poll after the video.

I'm assuming you're referring to the Newsweek Poll, since I don't know of any other poll with those results. Here is a link to an article about it. Excerpt:

"The Newsweek poll published yesterday, only three days before the presidential election, put Mr Bush on 50 per cent and Mr Kerry on 44 per cent. A similar poll conducted a week earlier gave the president 48 per cent to his Democratic challenger's 46 per cent."

So Bush went up 2 points in the Newsweek poll, which is 6 points in his favor, but 'taking a 6 point lead' makes it sound a little more dramatic than saying he went up two points. Btw, that poll had a 4 point margin of error, so that could very well explain the two point difference from the last poll. Also, I'm not sure what the history of that poll would show since there were ups and downs in all the polls throughout the pre-election weeks, but the article itself states:

"If the trend is confirmed by other polls, Mr Bush may have his greatest enemy to thank for helping him secure another four years in the White House..."

So that's if the trend is confirmed by other polls, which it was not. When asked about the poll results, this is what Michael Isikoff from Newsweek said:

"How much of a role do you think the video of Osama bin Laden is playing in the election polls?

Michael Isikoff: Its not clear the bin Laden video had any impact.

Why was the latest Newsweek poll so out of sync with other polls?

Michael Isikoff: A very good question, but as I mentioned before, there were a lot of polls that were off...." Link

So he's admitting that the Newsweek poll was out of sync with other polls as he says it's not clear that the bin Laden tape had any impact. The two candidates were neck to neck going into the election, so that would pretty much indicate that the tape didn't have any effect.

"So far neither candidate has managed to stake a lead, with Washington Post and Fox polls placing them dead even, even as national security fears leapt to the forefront with the 11th-hour appearance of Osama bin Laden on Friday." Link

So even after the bin Laden video, polls showed Bush and Kerry "dead even." There is nothing to indicate that Americans were affected by the bin Laden tape in 2004 or that it played into the election results in any way.

Edited September 9, 2007 by American Woman

[bush_cheney2004]

So even after the bin Laden video, polls showed Bush and Kerry "dead even." There is nothing to indicate that Americans were affected by the bin Laden tape in 2004 or that it played into the election results in any way.

Correct...the entire argument is specious and based on polls, the same kind of exit polls that told us Kerry was winning early on. Numerous issues impact the electorate, and many others choose not to vote at all. To focus on one low quality video event as the determining factor is mistaken.

[Guest American Woman]

Correct...the entire argument is specious and based on polls, the same kind of exit polls that told us Kerry was winning early on. Numerous issues impact the electorate, and many others choose not to vote at all. To focus on one low quality video event as the determining factor is mistaken.

It's not even based on "polls." It's based on only one poll, that even a Newsweek correspondent agrees was out of sync with other polls.

Edited September 9, 2007 by American Woman

[jbg]

Neither yourself nor Dick have ever addressed the 6 point swing in Bush's favor from the last poll before the video to the first poll after the video.

(hmm. What was Bush's margin of victory, again?)

The overall percentage vote swing is 100% irrelevant, since we vote state by state. To understand the impact, if any, in the video, for 2004, you'd need to know what the Ohio vote swing was. That's it.

[bush_cheney2004]

The overall percentage vote swing is 100% irrelevant, since we vote state by state. To understand the impact, if any, in the video, for 2004, you'd need to know what the Ohio vote swing was. That's it.

Not true....the election wasn't won with Ohio. This is a common error, reinforced by news media analysis. Many states contributed to President Bush's win.

Edited September 10, 2007 by bush_cheney2004

[jbg]

Not true....the election wasn't won with Ohio. This is a common error, reinforced by news media analysis. Many states contributed to President Bush's win.

True, but not many were within 6 points, and also big enough to matter.

[bush_cheney2004]

True, but not many were within 6 points, and also big enough to matter.

But some were....

Close states

Wisconsin, 0.38%

Iowa, 0.67%

New Mexico, 0.79%

New Hampshire, 1.37%

Ohio, 2.11%

Pennsylvania, 2.50%

Nevada, 2.59%

Michigan, 3.42%

Minnesota, 3.48%

Oregon, 4.16%

Colorado, 4.67%

But it's my fault...preferring numerical analysis and statistics over much hyped drama.

[jbg]

But some were....

Close states

But it's my fault...preferring numerical analysis and statistics over much hyped drama.

Most of the really close ones went to the Dems though.

[bush_cheney2004]

Most of the really close ones went to the Dems though.

All the better...Osama's video didn't mean anything after all, and certainly not a 6 point swing. It was just another American federal election...they happen like clockwork. Osama videos or no Osama videos.

[kimmy]

President Bush prevailed in 2004 because of domestic and foreign policy issues, not the least of which was "family values" legislation in many so called "red" states. It was nearly a re-run of the 2000 election, when Osama was certainly not a factor.

Only swing voters were in play, and one cannot decide that only an Osama video won them over in the face of Kerry campaign disaster(s).

Once again, the claim is not that OBL determined the outcome of the election.

The claim I made earlier is that it was his *intent* to influence the outcome of the election. (like, duh. Was the timing and subject matter some kind of random coincidence?)

And you reopened this by once again claiming that OBL was already old news by 2004. (suuure.)

Ohio had 20 electoral college votes and was decided by a margin of 2.11%. If those 20 electoral college votes had gone to Kerry, then Kerry would have won by 271 to 266.

It's not far fetched to think that 1 in 50 voters might have changed their mind following the video. The Newsweek poll shows 2 in 50 did so.

-k

[Guest American Woman]

It's not far fetched to think that 1 in 50 voters might have changed their mind following the video. The Newsweek poll shows 2 in 50 did so.

Did you even read what I posted about that poll? The Newsweek poll wasn't in sync with the other polls and it had a 4 point margin of error. That could have accounted for the two point rise for Bush in that poll. But repeating: that poll was not in sync with other polls, and I cited later polls that showed the two in a dead heat.

And while it might not be far fetched to think 1 in 50 voters changed their mind following the video, it's just that-- a thought that they might have. There is no proof to indicate that they did, and certainly everyone on the planet doesn't think the video had an impact on the outcome of the election, which was bascially your original claim.

The fact is, there really is nothing to indicate that the video made any difference, and as I already stated, the correspondent from Newsweek said the same thing. In fact, repeating again, the fact that the polls showed the two candidates neck to neck after the video was released would indicate that the video didn't have any impact on the election.

Edited September 10, 2007 by American Woman

[kuzadd]

goodness, someone else noticed the non-moving, comatose OBL

http://www.boomantribune.com/story/2007/9/9/61032/95401

Osama Bin Laden's widely publicized video address to the American people has a peculiarity that casts serious doubt on its authenticity: the video freezes at about 1 minute and 58 seconds, and motion only resumes again at 12:30. The video then freezes again at 14:02 remains frozen until the end. All references to current events, such as the 62nd anniversary of the U.S. atomic bombing of Japan, and Sarkozy and Brown being the leaders of France and the UK, respectively, occur when the video is frozen! The words spoken when the video is in motion contain no references to contemporary events and could have been (and likely were) made before the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

The audio track does appear to be in the voice of a single speaker. What I suspect was done is that an older, unreleased video was dubbed over for this release, with the video frozen when the audio track departed from that of the original video.

I noticed the exact same thing! I watched the video in it's entirety.

OBL, just froze, no movement, no gesturing, no lips moving.

anyone watch the whole thing??

[Guest American Woman]

anyone watch the whole thing??

I didn't watch any of it. What could it possibly say that hasn't already been said? Tomorrow is the 6 year anniversary of 9/11. It's all been said over and over. Whoever it is putting this video out, do they really think it could possibly make any difference?

[kuzadd]

I didn't watch any of it. What could it possibly say that hasn't already been said? Tomorrow is the 6 year anniversary of 9/11. It's all been said over and over. Whoever it is putting this video out, do they really think it could possibly make any difference?

Whoever is putting this video out, I can only speculate.

But, IMO, Binladen is dead, and has been for some time now.

But wonder who benefits from flogging the dead man, and his messages of fear etc., to the west.

Rumour has it, there is going to be another one this week, let's see?

Edited September 10, 2007 by kuzadd