Next Federal election predictions. When and why?

[Ricki Bobbi]

My prediction is April 9th.

The House sits again on January 29th. In five weeks Harper can introduce a new cabinet, new legislation on the environment (based on a deal agreed to with Jackie Layton) and an exit plan for the mission in Afghanistan.

The budget will be presented on February 26th. The howls of indignation by the opposition parties will last for a week and a half then Harper will visit Michaelle Jean on Sunday, March 11th to dissolve Parliament.

Look for the budget to re-institute the cuts to the lowest tax bracket, provide signigicant funding for the wait times guarantee and for addressing the fiscal imbalance.

This will be preceded by a significant Conservative pre-election advertising push. (They have waaaaay more money than they will be allowed to spend in the campaign period.)

This will allow Harper to take advantage of the Liberals new leader and campaign, before they have a chance to really get ready for the next campaign. (What's good for the goose is good for the gander).

This timing has the advantage of allowing for an election before the real fighting for the season starts in Afghanistan.

The final advantage to this timeline is it avoids how weak and ineffectual a PM can look while fighting daily for survival (*cough* *cough* Paul Martin c. 2005.)

[bk59]

That's a pretty detailed prediction.

It's interesting that you think Harper will go to the GG on his own. I figure that if he wants to have an election he might try to introduce something in the House and make it a confidence motion. Something that he knows the opposition parties will vote down. This way he can go to the electorate and claim that he needs a majority since the other parties don't want to work with his reasonable government.

Well, he'll probably say that whether he goes to the GG on his own or if there is a vote of non-confidence. So maybe that detail doesn't matter...

[Ricki Bobbi]

It's interesting that you think Harper will go to the GG on his own. I figure that if he wants to have an election he might try to introduce something in the House and make it a confidence motion. Something that he knows the opposition parties will vote down. This way he can go to the electorate and claim that he needs a majority since the other parties don't want to work with his reasonable government.

Well, he'll probably say that whether he goes to the GG on his own or if there is a vote of non-confidence. So maybe that detail doesn't matter...

I do agree with what you said. It won't really matter what leads to the actual election being called. The Liberals tried to make a deal of the timing for the 2006 election and got no traction with that.

Calling an election for the spring won't be much of an issue. Chretien called early elections twice and won majorities both times.

[gc1765]

The latest: Link

Harper seems to think that an election is coming and that the opposition will trigger it. It will be interesting to see who actually does trigger it.

[mikedavid00]

The latest: Link

Harper seems to think that an election is coming and that the opposition will trigger it. It will be interesting to see who actually does trigger it.

I finally got my quote:

"Mr. Harper also took a moment to address recent controversial remarks from British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who has said immigrants have a duty to integrate into British society. Mr. Harper said that the Canadian approach has led to the country being recognized as a model for the world.

“We haven't attempted historically to impose cultural norms on newcomers,” he said. “The irony is we don't have policies of enforced integration and the integration is better.”

Hehehe.. the good ol' Liberal "we're a model for the world" spin. He's either retarded, or he's trying his best not to jepordize votes. I think the latter.

[August1991]

From link above:

“The party will be ready for an election, let me assure you, when an election comes, and if it comes, it will be because the opposition forced it.”

He also said he doesn't want a vote until October, 2009, the date which is being proposed under new legislation, and that his party has had success in pushing through its agenda.

I wouldn't be surprised if there were no election in 2007. Dion's not ready and Harper knows that every day he's PM brings him closer to a majority.

The Liberal/NDP/Belinda/Toronto media meme is that Harper is a scary, Nazi, control-freak dictator who is not a team player. Yet Harper has managed a minority government. If Harper can manage another session or two, the Liberals and the others will have to find another meme.

None of this is lost on Canadian voters.

[jdobbin]

I wouldn't be surprised if there were no election in 2007. Dion's not ready and Harper knows that every day he's PM brings him closer to a majority.

The Liberal/NDP/Belinda/Toronto media meme is that Harper is a scary, Nazi, control-freak dictator who is not a team player. Yet Harper has managed a minority government. If Harper can manage another session or two, the Liberals and the others will have to find another meme.

None of this is lost on Canadian voters.

I fully expect the Liberals to launch an attack on the NDP as soon as January begins for supporting the Tory agenda. It will would Layton in Ontario certainly and not help him elsewhere. We have seen what happens to an NDP opposition that supports a minority government. They get burned.

The budget is what might bring down the government.

[August1991]

"If I were to lose this job now, there are still a lot of things I'd be wishing I had the time to complete," Mr. Harper told me. "I have fought four national campaigns in four years -- two leaderships and two elections -- and I have no desire to fight another campaign. I love what I'm doing and I want to do it some more, even if I have a minority."

Don Newman quotes Stephen Harper

The Tories aren't going to be defeated on the budget unless all three opposition parties really want to do it.

[Ricki Bobbi]

The Tories aren't going to be defeated on the budget unless all three opposition parties really want to do it.

The Conservatives are only defeated on the budget if they want to be.

It is pretty easy to make enough changes to a budget before hand to appease at least one party. Although it will still be touch and go if that party is the NDP....

[mikedavid00]

The Liberal/NDP/Belinda/Toronto media meme is that Harper is a scary, Nazi, control-freak dictator who is not a team player. Yet Harper has managed a minority government. If Harper can manage another session or two, the Liberals and the others will have to find another meme.

Yeah true. I think people will see through the smoke because nothing much has changed to the common voter except now families get a $100 a month and have 1% less tax. Nobody is against that.

Dion apposes both.

Either way, they just don't have inner city support yet. I do feel that they can pick up seats if you look at how close some of the ridings were last election.

I'll say again, the polls though are very troubling showing that Dion is in a position for a minority gov't. Of couse, I don't give credance to much to those polls.

[gc1765]

Yeah true. I think people will see through the smoke because nothing much has changed to the common voter except now families get a $100 a month and have 1% less tax. Nobody is against that.

Not true. I'm paying more tax, not less.

[Ricki Bobbi]

Not true. I'm paying more tax, not less.

Do explain...

[mikedavid00]

Yeah true. I think people will see through the smoke because nothing much has changed to the common voter except now families get a $100 a month and have 1% less tax. Nobody is against that.

Not true. I'm paying more tax, not less.

So the federal gov't have increased your taxes?

[jdobbin]

The Tories aren't going to be defeated on the budget unless all three opposition parties really want to do it.

If the Tories have a budget that leaves an opening for defeat, you can be sure that all three parties will defeat them.

[Charles Anthony]

If the Tories have a budget that leaves an opening for defeat, you can be sure that all three parties will defeat them.

What does "leaves an opening for defeat" mean? Any budget can be defeated.

[Ricki Bobbi]

If the Tories have a budget that leaves an opening for defeat, you can be sure that all three parties will defeat them.

What does "leaves an opening for defeat" mean? Any budget can be defeated.

I'll reply with the equally vague I'm sure the Conservatives won't leave an opening for defeat, unless they want to.

[hiti]

If the Tories have a budget that leaves an opening for defeat, you can be sure that all three parties will defeat them.

What does "leaves an opening for defeat" mean? Any budget can be defeated.

I'll reply with the equally vague I'm sure the Conservatives won't leave an opening for defeat, unless they want to.

Budgets are always open to debate and spend their time in committee as well. There is no choice to exclude debate or propagandize with "no opening for debate."

[fellowtraveller]

I don't agree with the notion that every day in government as PM brings Harper closer to a majority.

He is quite limited to what he can accomplish with a minority, and the very last image he wants to present to the electorate is as an ineffectual PM. That is the day that draws ever closer, it is inevitable.

I think that overall he is doing just fine, and needs to find an exit/election strategy of his own choosing, and in his control for timing.

I think the timing will be influenced by the level of desperation of the NDP and the Bloc. Both are steadily and slowly losing ground, and the Bloc has even more to lose if Harper presents fiscal imbalance help in the next budget.

The schedule in the OP sounds about right, forcing an election in April or May.

[madmax]

I think the timing will be influenced by the level of desperation of the NDP and the Bloc. Both are steadily and slowly losing ground, and the Bloc has even more to lose if Harper presents fiscal imbalance help in the next budget.

I think your first two sentences have merit. The calling of an election will not be influenced by the "desperation" of the NDP. It doesn't make any sense to me. Before I comment, perhaps you can elaborate. As for the Bloc. You might be right, although, they appear to be just as worried about Resurgent Liberal Support.

[Ricki Bobbi]

I'll reply with the equally vague I'm sure the Conservatives won't leave an opening for defeat, unless they want to.

Budgets are always open to debate and spend their time in committee as well. There is no choice to exclude debate or propagandize with "no opening for debate."

Read what you are replying to. Opening for DEFEAT! DEFEAT!

[Jean_Poutine]

My prediction is April 9th.

April 1st would be better.

[rat-a-tat-tat]

Whether the election happens in the Spring, Summer or Fall, the results will be the same. And everyone with a heart will feel sorry for Citoyen Dion, just as they did for Kim Campbell back in '93.

I can't wait!

[jdobbin]

Whether the election happens in the Spring, Summer or Fall, the results will be the same. And everyone with a heart will feel sorry for Citoyen Dion, just as they did for Kim Campbell back in '93.

I can't wait!

Welcome to the forum. And where will Conservatives make gains?

[rat-a-tat-tat]

Welcome to the forum. And where will Conservatives make gains?

Thank you!

The same place the Liberals did back in '93 is what I'm guessing.

Btw, I forgot.....what were the polsters saying back then? Did the smart ones have the Conservatives down to 2 seats? 5? 10? 20?.............50?........................70?

[jdobbin]

The same place the Liberals did back in '93 is what I'm guessing.

Btw, I forgot.....what were the polsters saying back than? Did the smart ones have the Conservatives down to 2 seats? 5? 10? 20?.............50?........................70?

I don't think anyone predicted how well Reform and the Bloq would do. The Liberals don't have the challenge from the NDP that the Conservatives did from Reform.

Kim Campbell had a boost in the polls after her leadership. There were so many top Tories who didn't run in the 1993 election. It just didn't seem that there was enough behind her. Meanwhile Reform was hammering the Tories from the right and the Bloq were hammering the Tories from Quebec.

I don't see the same dynamic in this election coming. I think it would require a stronger NDP to pose a real problem for the Liberals.