Canadian Political Polls

[jbg]

Yeah right-wing for Quebec (dude it's hard being a true blue Tory here)...

Is that true in the 10-riding area near Quebec City, sort of balloon shaped, that the CPC holds?

Yeah that is where most of their seats are.

What I was asking is if it's " hard being a true blue Tory" in the 10-riding area near Quebec City, sort of balloon shaped, that the CPC holds?

[tml12]

Yeah right-wing for Quebec (dude it's hard being a true blue Tory here)...

Is that true in the 10-riding area near Quebec City, sort of balloon shaped, that the CPC holds?

Yeah that is where most of their seats are.

What I was asking is if it's " hard being a true blue Tory" in the 10-riding area near Quebec City, sort of balloon shaped, that the CPC holds?

I don't know...the last time I was up there was in 1995 and it was hard to be anything that wasn't separatist at that time. Friends of mine has told me that the climate up there has changed...if their hearts have warmed to people they do not consider their own then I would find this a positive example of climate change.

[jdobbin]

I think I mentioned that the poll in the week immediately after the Superbowl would reveal how Canadians felt about the Conservative negative ads.

Looks like it was money ill-spent.

Here is the CTV Decima poll:

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...07?hub=Politics

About 59 per cent said the ads were unfair in describing Dion. Only 22 per cent felt the ads were fair.

[leonardcohen]

I think I mentioned that the poll in the week immediately after the Superbowl would reveal how Canadians felt about the Conservative negative ads.

Looks like it was money ill-spent.

Here is the CTV Decima poll:

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...07?hub=Politics

About 59 per cent said the ads were unfair in describing Dion. Only 22 per cent felt the ads were fair.

Gee,I wonder if there were any polls when the Liberals used their scary ads against the Conservatives,just asking? I'm thinking it's a matter of timing, we're not in an election now,and we have a low tolerance for ads at the best of times.

[jdobbin]

Gee,I wonder if there were any polls when the Liberals used their scary ads against the Conservatives,just asking? I'm thinking it's a matter of timing, we're not in an election now,and we have a low tolerance for ads at the best of times.

Yes, there were polls done in the last election in relation to the ads and the reaction to them was harsh. It didn't work very well for the Liberals at all.

[jdobbin]

Tories take lead in poll.

http://ca.today.reuters.com/news/newsArtic...DA-POLL-COL.XML

Tories are ahead in Ontario while Liberals are now tied with Bloq in Quebec.

[August1991]

A recent poll suggests the Conservatives have a slight lead over the Liberals.

The Leger Marketing survey gives the Tories 38 per cent support, the Liberals 31 per cent, the NDP 14 per cent and the Bloc Quebecois eight per cent.

In Quebec, the Liberals (32 per cent) and the Bloc (31) are in a battle and are followed by the Conservatives at 24 per cent.

In Ontario, the Conservatives are at 40 per cent, compared with the Liberals' 35 per cent.

The poll of 1,500 Canadians was conducted Jan. 30-Feb. 4, a period shortly after the Conservatives unveiled ads critical of Liberal Leader Stephane Dion.

Toronto Star

I might have to revise my prediction that there will be no Spring 2007 election. With numbers like this, it must be awfully tempting for Harper to go for his majority. This might explain Harper's bolshie behaviour recently. I bet Dion's personal numbers are not great.

If the Tories break 40 in a poll or two, forget Harper, the Tory caucus will be clamping at the bit.

[jdobbin]

I might have to revise my prediction that there will be no Spring 2007 election. With numbers like this, it must be awfully tempting for Harper to go for his majority. This might explain Harper's bolshie behaviour recently. I bet Dion's personal numbers are not great.

If the Tories break 40 in a poll or two, forget Harper, the Tory caucus will be clamping at the bit.

The big news from this poll is the drop of the Liberals in Ontario while they rise in Quebec.

The people who kept saying no election until 2008 are probably kidding themselves. I don't think Harper wants to go into a summer like he did this past summer where all hell can break loose like it did on foreign affairs. Afghanistan could be huge in several short weeks. He can't control what happens in Afghanistan. He does have some control over what happens in Canada.

[Topaz]

Harpo may be up in the polls but so are the unemployment and there are many more unemployment victims coming in the auto sector. I feel the Cons are showing their inexperience in government and so when asked a question is the same-old answer! The Libs are rebuilding their party and from what I've seen all that was connected to the "scam" are history and with Turner, Rae, Kennedy, and Trudeau, new blood is going to make them back on top. Harpo has peeved off too many of his voters and if the Liberals get back their support, the Libs will be back in the PMO.

[jdobbin]

Harpo may be up in the polls but so are the unemployment and there are many more unemployment victims coming in the auto sector. I feel the Cons are showing their inexperience in government and so when asked a question is the same-old answer! The Libs are rebuilding their party and from what I've seen all that was connected to the "scam" are history and with Turner, Rae, Kennedy, and Trudeau, new blood is going to make them back on top. Harpo has peeved off too many of his voters and if the Liberals get back their support, the Libs will be back in the PMO.

There are some structural problems in certain sectors, I think.

However, today's employment numbers took almost everyone by surprise.

http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2007/02/09/job-numbers.html

The one are of concern: weak GDP growth and poor productivity numbers.

Some in the Liberal team are telling Dion to diversify his criticism from just the environment. It is sound advice. The election campaign won't solely be fought on the environment.

[Kiraly]

I think I mentioned that the poll in the week immediately after the Superbowl would reveal how Canadians felt about the Conservative negative ads.

Looks like it was money ill-spent.

Considering the latest numbers, maybe not so ill.

[Kiraly]

Harpo may be up in the polls but so are the unemployment and there are many more unemployment victims coming in the auto sector. I feel the Cons are showing their inexperience in government and so when asked a question is the same-old answer! The Libs are rebuilding their party and from what I've seen all that was connected to the "scam" are history and with Turner, Rae, Kennedy, and Trudeau, new blood is going to make them back on top. Harpo has peeved off too many of his voters and if the Liberals get back their support, the Libs will be back in the PMO.

Now this is qute a rosy outlook...

...if not realistic.

[jdobbin]

Considering the latest numbers, maybe not so ill.

One poll has already said that people didn't like the ads. How do you know that Harper's numbers might not have gone higher without the ads?

[Catchme]

How about if we look at the most accurate polling company' s current just released poll, As SES has consistently been the most accurate, in the last 2 elections and the lead up to them. Here is SES's poll numbers released today.

SES National Breakdown

CPC – 33% (-1)

Liberal – 33% (+1)

NDP – 17% (+1)

BQ – 10%(-3)

Green Party – 7% (+2)

http://www.sesresearch.com/main.asp,

Link to a pdf of poll and povincial breakdowns on right hand side down a bit.

The Liberals and the CPC are in a dead heat. With the CPC losing 1 point from the last SES. Apparently the attack ads are not working.

[fellowtraveller]

From Jdobbins link:

However, the National Post newspaper had a front-page article on Friday suggesting that if Parliament passes a backbencher's bill legally requiring the government to adhere to the Kyoto Protocol on climate change, Harper might choose to call an election over it.

I think he will too, and I reckon Dion and Layton have overplayed their hand on this file.

The Liberals simply cannot succesfully cannot run on their environmental record, and Dion himself is vulnerable on it personally. Budget, tabling of an environmental bill, lose a confidence vote, election. The Tories will bodyslam Dion and the Libs relentlessly on their lack of performance on Kyoto, and people will pay attention if and only if the Tories have a replacement strategy - which they will by election time.

I had predicted no spring election too, but I may be wrong on that.

The Libs are rebuilding their party and from what I've seen all that was connected to the "scam" are history and with Turner, Rae, Kennedy, and Trudeau, new blood is going to make them back on top.

I don't agree, and predict that the Tory campaign is going to highlight Mr Dions longtime presence in Chretien and Martins Cabinets throughtout Adscam, from start to finish the only constant left is - Dion. This is another area where Dion and the Liberals are jointly and personally vulnerable. I also have the intuition that the Tories have an election -ready Adscam bombshell or two tucked in their armoury.

The campaign will get ugly early and stay that way. In the end, the Liberals are going to wish they had stuck with a campaign veteran like Rae, rather than the baggage-laden 'safe' guy- Dion.

[geoffrey]

The devil is in the details CatchMe, this poll actually looks good for the CPC.. here's why:

- Up 8% in Quebec

- Even in Ontario, with the Liberals dropping 6% in Ontario to tie the CPC (looks like another incapable of English speaking PM is not in the cards for Ontarians).

The CPC lost big in the Atlantic, which doesn't matter, they only have a handful of seats there anyways and those are Tory strongholds... They also lost 7% in the West... telling with their ideas to attack Alberta wealth. We'll have to wait to see how hard Harper comes down on Alberta before that number is clear. But if every riding lost 10% in Alberta from the CPC, only 3 seats would go Liberal, so I don't think it's panic mode yet. In BC, the Conservatives may lose a few around Vancouver.

But it's essientially huge gains in Ontario, with the Liberals plummeting... we'll see a few pickups in the 905, maybe in SW Ontario too.

Up 8% in Quebec? That's a dangerous number. I'd be careful Mr. Duceppe, your going to be out of a job soon.

I think I'm going to build my election seat predictor model.... put all that financial modelling education to use one day.

[Kiraly]

Considering the latest numbers, maybe not so ill.

One poll has already said that people didn't like the ads. How do you know that Harper's numbers might not have gone higher without the ads?

I think most people will always say that they do not like negative ads and that advertisements generally do not affect them. Yet millions are spent on sending these messages to the masses.

I don't think anyone can know for sure how the advertisements really affected how those that viewed them perceive Dion and if their feelings towards the Conservatives have changed as a result.

[August1991]

Harpo may be up in the polls but so are the unemployment and there are many more unemployment victims coming in the auto sector.

Red-hot job market raises eyebrows

....

The Canadian economy added 88,900 jobs in January and for the second month in a row the labour market far exceeded forecasts.

G & M

There's another one that I have been wrong on. I thought we were in for a recession of sorts by now but the US and Canadian economies keep chugging along. Lower oil prices (and lower dollars in both countries) seem to have helped.

[geoffrey]

The jobs concept is actually quite puzzling to economists and industry people right now. Every other indictator shows trouble head, but jobs just keep getting added. Jobs are generally a lagging indictator, but not this much.

[Catchme]

The devil is in the details CatchMe, this poll actually looks good for the CPC.. here's why:

- Up 8% in Quebec

- Even in Ontario, with the Liberals dropping 6% in Ontario to tie the CPC (looks like another incapable of English speaking PM is not in the cards for Ontarians).

The CPC lost big in the Atlantic, which doesn't matter, they only have a handful of seats there anyways and those are Tory strongholds... They also lost 7% in the West... telling with their ideas to attack Alberta wealth. We'll have to wait to see how hard Harper comes down on Alberta before that number is clear. But if every riding lost 10% in Alberta from the CPC, only 3 seats would go Liberal, so I don't think it's panic mode yet. In BC, the Conservatives may lose a few around Vancouver.

But it's essientially huge gains in Ontario, with the Liberals plummeting... we'll see a few pickups in the 905, maybe in SW Ontario too.

Up 8% in Quebec? That's a dangerous number. I'd be careful Mr. Duceppe, your going to be out of a job soon.

No, actually it does not look good, and here is why:

PQ we went over this riding by riding earlier in this thread, and what drops mean or gains mean. There are only 10 seats in PQ that are eligible to the CPC. There is no way they can get more without a 15%+ gain in polls. The ridings they have, yes, are in contest with the Bloq. Not the Liberals and not the NDP. There were 3 riding in the last set of polls, not SES, out, that showed the Bloq could take over if the CPC continued to fall in those ridings. The %'s were close enough where change could occur and there could be a 3 seat loss by the CPC.

Now, it is fair to assume that the as the CPC has gained 8%, it is only in those 10 ridings, and perhaps only in 7 of those ridings, or they could have gained ground again in those 3 where %'s took the Bloq within striking distance. Either the %'s would only be applicable in those 10 ridings, or in the 3 ridings where there was bleeding, and not outside of them, as the CPC are no where near close enough to garner more seats in other PQ ridings. Plus the Liberals have gone up % points in PQ, thereby lessening the CPC's 8% gains by 2%. It appears 2% of the NDP went to the Greens in PQ and as such play no role.

Therefore there is no net seat gains possible for the CPC in PQ.

Then in Atlantic Canada the CPC have dropped 12% points, that is serious, and puts several ridings in contention and up for grabs with several potential losses for the CPC if that % holds.

The CPC stayed the same in ON, there were NO gains, I do not know where you got that from even. So there are no seat gains possible there with no change in the polls. The fact they can make no gains says much. Again the seats are theirs to lose. Harper's throwing away Turner's riding because of his control issues has severely damaged the CPC in ON. A one seat loss is 1 too many.

So, what is left is the west, and the CPC have dropped 7% points with the Liberals garnering 5% and the NDP garnering 2%. The CPC cannot gain any more seats in AB. They can only lose there. The same can be said for BC. A 7% decrease in BC will lose the CPC seats to both the Liberals and the NDP. You have noted this yourself.

As you can see, this poll's regional breakdown suggests that the CPC would lose several seats if an election were held today. They would no longer have a functional minority. At this point, it is no longer is PQ and Ontario who are determining the federal government, it is the Atlantic and the West. They will be the ones where the battle will be fought for who sits in the PMO.

[geoffrey]

The CPC stayed the same in ON, there were NO gains, I do not know where you got that from even. So there are no seat gains possible there with no change in the polls. The fact they can make no gains says much. Again the seats are theirs to lose. Harper's throwing away Turner's riding because of his control issues has severely damaged the CPC in ON. A one seat loss is 1 too many.

Umm... the Liberals dropped 6%... a vote split between the Liberals and the NDP gives the Tories many seats... in the 905 and in BC (though the BC numbers aren't as favourable).

The Tories could retain the same number of votes and have the Liberals drop below that.

Here are some ridings you should look at if you wish to see what comes into play with a 6% Liberal drop:

- Ottawa South

- Newmarket Aurora would technically come into play, but Belinda is a safe bet, the women love her

- Etobicoke - Lakeshore, but then again, Iggy is a safe bet, how I'd love to see that arrogant guy get knocked off though

- Mississauga—Erindale would nearly certainly go CPC, unless the ethnics really rally behind another Muslim, but I think the rally factor was maxed out last election.

- Mississauga—Streetsville... ok, it's Kahn's riding. Weird hey. He barely won as a Liberal... with some of that Liberal support moving with him (let's be honest, some of them voted for him, not the party, it's an ethnic riding), he should win as a Conservative if the Liberals have dropped this 6%.

- Welland (though it's more likely to see this go NDP)

- Brant will certainly go CPC

- Guelph

- Huron Bruce will be another almost certainty

- Kitchner Centre comes into play

- London West (CPC in London??? Ohhhh my) would be a certainty if a good candidate was there.

- London North Centre... with the Green's support reduced to normal levels, it's in play, not a great chance, but if they can sell to the 40-60k income earners with income splitting (if indeed they do that)... it could happen.

- Kenora is a safe win

- Thunder Bay - Rainy River could go to any of the three, depending on their candidate choice. Expect to see a relatively big name from all parties here...

So I identified 7 possible wins with ~6% Liberal drop... and another 7 into play ridings with the Liberals losing that support.

So yes CatchMe, basic logic would tell you that you can lose a seat when your support plummets. I personally think that drop in support in concentrated in the non-Toronto areas. As in, maybe 10% loss in non-Toronto and a 5% gain in the GTA regions for the Liberals. The CPC is selling well to middle-class suburban families. They aren't scary anymore, they are cutting their taxes and keeping their kids safe. It's a good selling point.

A non-English PM is also ugly for non-Torontonians. Liberal supporters in Toronto don't speak English anyways so it doesn't really matter to them.

[BayLee]

Well actually...

Todays SES POLL NUMBERS completed last night.

National

Conservative Party – 33% (-1)

Liberal – 33% (+1)

NDP – 17% (+1)

BQ – 10%(-3)

Green Party – 7% (+2)

Quebec (N=234, MoE ±6.5, 19 times out of 20)

BQ – 39% (-11)

Liberal – 27% (+2)

Conservative Party – 20% (+8)

NDP – 8% (-2)

Green Party – 6% (+2)

Ontario (N=262, MoE ±6.1, 19 times out of 20)

Liberal – 38% (-6)

Conservative – 36% (no change)

NDP – 19% (+3)

Green Party – 8% (+3)

Isnt it amazing that in spite of the supposed LIBERAL corruption and adscam and the fact they were leaderless for so long that Harper still cant get more support than the LIBS.

Says a lot about this man Harper who is one scary person

[Canadian Blue]

Isnt it amazing that in spite of the supposed LIBERAL corruption and adscam and the fact they were leaderless for so long that Harper still cant get more support than the LIBS.

Says a lot about this man Harper who is one scary person

I thought the poll shows he's not so scary, especially if he's PM and most voter's aren't really wanting a quick election.

[jdobbin]

I thought the poll shows he's not so scary, especially if he's PM and most voter's aren't really wanting a quick election.

I think what the polls show is that neither party is pulling ahead. There is some indication that the Bloq is losing ground and that the NDP needs to be aware they could lose supporters to the Liberals if they are seen a propping up the Tories or watering down their policies

[BayLee]

The polls show that despite so called LIBERAL corruption Harper still cant get more support than the Liberals.