Canadian Political Polls

[geoffrey]

latest polls from Feb 15-18

Looks like an an election in six weeks. Harper doesn't want to go longer than that because his support could crumble if there are a lot of casualties in Afghanistan as he himself suggested this past weekend.

The CPC is going to try to use the Kyoto rhetoric versus real plans as a wedge in this one. The free trade of our time? An election faught on the environment can both be a huge winner and a huge loser for the Conservatives.

Much bigger issue than Afghanistan... though I'm sure the NDP and Liberals will start demanding an exit strategy (something the Liberals didn't have when they sent the troops there). They love mirroring American leftists.

[Catchme]

Basically, this last poll was nothing more than a push poll, broadly worded questions, I. e. "who is most decisive", whose results really do not mean a thing. I certainly hope the CPC go forward with an election thinking this poll gives them a lead.

For example the question:

which party leader had the clearest vision of where he wants to take the country, Harper showed a significant lead over his rivals (percentage-point change from a Dec. 3-4 poll in brackets):

Stephen Harper: 50 per cent (+ 18)

Stephane Dion: 22 per cent (- 16 from when Paul Martin was leader)

Jack Layton: 20 per cent (+ 1)

Gilles Duceppe: 8 per cent (- 4)

Not only is it a push poll question, it means little, as I too think Harper may have the clearest vision on where he wants to take the country, and would have responded yes. Why? Because it is quite clear that he wants to take this country into theo-con territory and completely erode our infrastruture, why ignoring the environment.

The same goes for this question:

More than half of respondents also felt that Harper is the most decisive of the party leaders.

Harper: 53 per cent

Dion: 19 per cent

Layton: 20 per cent

Duceppe: 8 per cent

It again is a push poll question designed for band wagon purposes. Of course, Harper would appear more decisive, he after all is the one currently making the decisions. And again, it is not necessarily a postive supportive answer that the pollsters were getting.

This potential negative response is supported by these results:

Here are the results when voters were asked who was the most charismatic (percentage-point change from a Dec. 3-4 poll in brackets):

Harper: 35 per cent (+ 18)

Dion: 20 per cent (- 9 from when Martin was leader)

Layton: 36 per cent (- 2)

Duceppe: 10 per cent (- 4)

Layton though suposedly down 2% is still considered the most charasmatic leader by Canadians. This down 2% is probably because of the unacceptable 5% margin of error in Ontario with only 379 people being polled.

Then there is this question and responses, also not good for the CPC, and further indicate the answers received from the clearest vision and decisive questions may NOT be actual positive responses for the CPC:

The best prime minister

Liberals: 23 per cent

Conservatives: 20 per cent

NDP: 21 per cent

Bloc Quebecois: 6 per cent

Other/don't know/refused: 31 per cent

Both Layton and Dion lead over Harper when consideration is given for the Best Prime Minister material.

The margin of error in this poll is 5% in Ontario. They only polled 379 people. A huge glaring significance and wonders what the motivation for this was? But really one does not have to wonder too far, it being a push poll geared toward trying to promote a false perception for a bandwagon effect. Particularily when the real meat of the poll has been down played both here and by the CTV. and Global was even worse in it's propaganda.

Then there is this:

when asked how respondents would vote today, the Liberals showed a significant drop since Dion first won his party's leadership race (percentage-point change from a Dec. 3 poll in brackets):

Liberals: 29 per cent (- 8)

Conservatives: 34 per cent (+ 3)

NDP: 14 per cent (none)

Bloc Quebecois: 11 per cent (none)

Green Party: 12 per cent (+ 5)

They did not show a significant drop, when one considers the Ontario margin of error, it would actually show, if the margin of error was considered, that it would still be a neck in neck race, for a minority government, which is what the other recent polls have shown.

What garbage and clap trap this poll was. Nothing more than propaganada to try and get a bandwagon effect.

[Canadian Blue]

The best prime minister

Liberals: 23 per cent

Conservatives: 20 per cent

NDP: 21 per cent

Bloc Quebecois: 6 per cent

Other/don't know/refused: 31 per cent

Both Layton and Dion lead over Harper when consideration is given for the Best Prime Minister material.

Catchme, what exactly are you reading? Because from what I got that's about the environment, not who is considered the best PM. But it doesn't really surprise me that you would have that interpetation.

But the poll hints that Canadians do not consider his plan much more effective than that offered by the Conservatives:

Liberals: 23 per cent

Conservatives: 20 per cent

NDP: 21 per cent

Bloc Quebecois: 6 per cent

Other/don't know/refused: 31 per cent

What garbage and clap trap this poll was. Nothing more than propaganada to try and get a bandwagon effect.

Is that your answer to any poll that doesn't reflect your political views on the issues.

Either way, I think the real winner according to the poll is the Green party, as they have pushed up 5% getting ahead of the Bloc. The Liberal's aren't going anywhere, and even many in the Liberal party have shown concern about the leader not being able to define himself.

Plus some of the comment's he made, like how Quebec voters are going to be "mixed up". They just sound somewhat odd.

Hopefully Gerard Kennedy for Liberal Leader in 2008.

[Catchme]

The poll was conducted by the Allen Gregg from the Strategic Council, the same polling firm whom Harper just paid 76k to conduct the focus groups on how to sell Canadians war.

The questions though not really a push poll, were scripted to elicite a particular response and future outcome. As I noted, the opposition party leaders cannot really be judged upon their decisiveness, as they are not in the decision making process. In particular Dion cannot be judged by much, as he was just elected to leader and has not even passed, what would be a normal probationary period in the working world yet. Furthermore, in some questions the other section people outnumbered the % of those who did. That is a huge empty unknown.

And I already explained my perceptions surrounding the clearest vision, and why that also was a scripited/loaded question geared for a particular result in the electorate's minds. Stats and polls can be, and often are, used for a band wagon effect. And IMV, this one is saying, or trying to say: "hey this many people feel, so and so, in this case Harper is got a clear vision for Canada and is decisive....so he can't be that bad. When indeed the decisive question cannot not even really ask that type of question from those polled. It is apples and oranges, because the others have NO history of making decisions while in power.

Those are the disagreements I have with the poll, the polling firm and its results, plus the outrageous margin of error in Ontario. It has absolutely nothing to do with diasagreeing with it, because of political views.

As I said, when you truly look at it, it is actually bad for the CPC, those numbers are a few points lower than what they went into the last election with, and lower than what they got a weak minority from.

Selling Harper's charisma is apparently not working either, as Jack is considered the most charasmatic, so I should be cheering, if I was responding in a partisan manner, and was disagreeing simply because I did not like the results.

It makes no matter, if it was regarding the environment, or not. First of all, the environment is the top most issue on Canadian minds, and that is telling in itself isn't it? Secondly, most people only hear/read the points of the question asked, and not the entire thing. Either way the results speak for themselves in that regard. And again, if I was critiquing the poll, and its results, from a partisan perspective, I would be whoo hooing.

In fact, one could say those who are touting this as a good thing for the CPC,are definitely the ones being partisan, because in reality, it shows nothing different than the other recent polls. The Liberals and the CPC are neck in neck, and the CPC are still polling lower than what they won their minority with.

Moreover, the numbers he has for the Greens are NOT supported by the recent ON by-election results. The truth about Green Party supporters, was exhibited in the 3 ON by-elections, just a couple of weeks back. Just after SES released the last poll on ON provincial party politics, that showed the ON Green Party at 11%, they actually went on to get an average of 3% in the 3 by-elections, including 3% for Frank Dejong, their "star" candidate.

[geoffrey]

Alberta was the culprit. Less than 10% of people in Northern Alberta filled out their questionnaires before enumerators had to be shipped there from the East because it was impossible to find anyone to do the job for the amount of pay StatCan could afford. Somehow the thousands of unemployed in Alberta didn't jump at the $10/hr pay. Any idea why?

The 3.4% that are unemployed are simply between jobs. Natural rate of unemployment. People in the East don't jump at $24 an hour admin jobs in Alberta either, so maybe you should address your questions to the much more extreme example.

But if you wanted to force the unemployed of Alberta, and the rest of Canada for that matter, to do the census free of charge (they'd still get their EI benefits) then I'm all in.

[jdobbin]

The CPC is going to try to use the Kyoto rhetoric versus real plans as a wedge in this one. The free trade of our time? An election faught on the environment can both be a huge winner and a huge loser for the Conservatives.

Much bigger issue than Afghanistan... though I'm sure the NDP and Liberals will start demanding an exit strategy (something the Liberals didn't have when they sent the troops there). They love mirroring American leftists.

I haven't seen anything about the Liberals even talking about leaving in recent months other than they probably won't support another extension this year.

Harper is dismissing talk about an election but it is hard to believe he won't consider it.

Afghanistan *will* be an issue if casualties mount. It is why Harper has being trying to prepare Canadians so it won't be a surprise.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/070220/...harper_election

[jdobbin]

Latest Decima poll has Tories in slim lead.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...0213?hub=Canada

But the margin of error is greater on the Ontario numbers because of the smaller sample size.

The Bloc Quebecois held a huge lead in Quebec at 42 per cent, compared with 21 per cent for the Liberals and 17 per cent for the Tories.

I think we'll be seeing less of Dion in the House of Commons and more on the campaign trail. The election is on.

[madmax]

Much bigger issue than Afghanistan... though I'm sure the NDP and Liberals will start demanding an exit strategy (something the Liberals didn't have when they sent the troops there). They love mirroring American leftists.

Gordon O’Connor, asked the Liberal government the following .

What are the goals and objectives of this mission and how do they meet Canada's foreign policy objectives?

What is the realistic mandate of the mission and how is it being enforced?

What are the criteria to measure progress?

What is the definition of success?

And what is the clear exit strategy for this mission?

What's that last question again?

[Canadian Blue]

I have just found this poll which should be of interest.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/...em/itemID/14712

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The Conservative party has extended its lead in Canada’s federal political scene, according to a poll by Leger Marketing. 38 per cent of respondents would vote for the governing Tories in the next election to the House of Commons.

The Liberal party is second with 31 per cent, followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 14 per cent, the Bloc Québécois with eight per cent, and the Green party with seven per cent. Support for the Tories increased by three points since January, while backing for the Grits fell by one point.

Canadians renewed the House of Commons in January 2006. The Conservative party—led by Stephen Harper—received 36.3 per cent of the vote, and secured 124 seats in the 308-member lower house. Harper leads a minority administration after more than 12 years of government by the Liberal party. In December 2006, former environment minister Stéphane Dion became the new leader of the Liberals.

On Feb. 9, Harper responded to the statements of a Chinese official who warned Canada not to criticize the Asian country’s human rights record because it could harm bilateral relations, saying, "I would point out to any Chinese official that just as a matter of fact, China had a huge trade surplus with this country, so it would be in the interest of the Chinese government to make sure any dealings on trade are fair and above board."

In relation to the case of a Canadian citizen jailed in China for no clear reasons, Harper added: "There are those in the opposition who will say, ‘You know, China is an important country, so we shouldn’t really protest these things (...) so maybe someday we’ll be able to sell more goods there.’ I think that’s irresponsible."

The Conservatives are the top party in every region except Quebec, and hold a five-point edge over the Liberals in Ontario—a province that elects 106 members to the 308-seat House of Commons.

Conservative -38%

Liberal- -31%

New Democrat-14%

Bloc -8%

Green -7%

[jdobbin]

I have just found this poll which should be of interest.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/...em/itemID/14712

This poll was posted in this thread. There has been a few other polls since including the one today that have both parties still at neck and neck.

[Canadian Blue]

My mistake, I didn't notice it on this thread.

[jdobbin]

Provincial Liberals hold slim lead over PQ in Quebec.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/070222/...quebec_poll_col

The doesn't sound like majority territory for the Liberals.

[geoffrey]

Overall polling numbers are meaningless in Quebec, where regional divisions are so intense it distorts any popular vote type support.

[Spike22]

Once again it comes down to the budget to determine the fate of another possible election. This country is so messed up right now. The block should have never have been allowed to exist IMHO as it represents only the Quebec issues not anything nationally (name another democratic country that would have allowed a seperatist state party within their federal political system - how about the Alabama Legency party?). This has thrown federal politics into dissaray as often they seem to wield the balance of power. The polls always show the liberals & conservatives within a few percentage points of each other (33-35%) the NDP's alway hover around the high teens to low 20 percent range and the BQ are potentially/often the deciding voting members. What a country!!!!!!!!!!

[hiti]

This is hilarious and right on the money. LOL

Quote: But this week pollsters were doing only what the Harper team could have dreamed -- reversing the usual order of things. Headlines that could just as well have read, "Tories Go Nowhere Under Harper Leadership," instead gave the direct opposite impression, one of Tory surge.

Two polls appeared. One had the Conservatives at 34 per cent, the other at 32. Thirteen months ago, they started at 36 per cent. Had you asked the PM back then if he would be happy with such numbers today, he would surely have fixed you with his studied scowl.

But instead of his party's low polls, what was highlighted were his leadership scores as pitted against those of a relatively unknown Liberal leader barely out of the starting gate. And surprise, surprise, Mr. Harper far outshone Mr. Dion -- something at this point in time a bellhop could do. -end quote

http://tinyurl.com/2a7xsp

[Canuck E Stan]

Two polls appeared. One had the Conservatives at 34 per cent, the other at 32. Thirteen months ago, they started at 36 per cent. Had you asked the PM back then if he would be happy with such numbers today, he would surely have fixed you with his studied scowl.

http://tinyurl.com/2a7xsp

Looks like 13 months ago.....is back.

Poll -February 23, 2007 -Tories Top Grits

The survey, conducted by Ipsos-Reid for CanWest News Service and Global National, says the Conservatives have the support of 36% of the population, compared to 34% for the Liberals.

The survey said the NDP held at 13%, the Bloc held at 9% and the Green party grew to 8%, up three points from the January poll.

In Quebec, the Bloc had 38% support, compared with 25% for the Liberals, and 21% for the Conservatives.

In Ontario, the Liberals were ahead of the Conservatives by 41% to 38%, but the margin shrank to three points from six points in January.

Looks like the momentun is building for the Tories.

[geoffrey]

The Tories don't need anymore supporters as long as the bleed continues in the Liberal rank.

I think there is more movement then the polls show.

Alberta Tory support has dropped... Ontario Liberal support has plummetted. Alberta won't cost the CPC's anything because they win by super majorities in nearly all the seats. Ontario will cost the Liberals if they vote split with the NDP.

How long until a Unite the Left? How long until the right wing Liberals realise what they are now supporting under Dion and either throw a little happy coup or jump ship?

Dion is tilting the ol' Liberal boat right towards NDP land.

[Canuck E Stan]

Dion is tilting the ol' Liberal boat right towards NDP land.

With Iggy being the head spokesman for the Libs more and more(and some Libs resent it) Mr.Dion is looking more and more like a lame duck Lib leader... mistake.

[Remiel]

You know, if I were the chief Liberal strategist, I don't think I would be wasting too much time trying to repel the Conservative attack on Dion right now, I'd be saving my ammunition for for an explosive barrage in the event of an actual election.

So, either the Liberals are failing, or they are really just biding there time. You never know.

[jdobbin]

Looks like the momentun is building for the Tories.

If an election were called today, it is hard to say where it would go in terms of support. Hardly a sure thing.

[Catchme]

Oh my, the surge is on, both in Iraq and here in Canada.

Well, actually not in either place. Both are stalled because of sane public opinion.

the two parties in a statistical tie, said pollster Darrell Bricker.

Truthfully, Harper and his government are going no where, with the Canadian public. And MORE importantly, not even in Alberta. Now how telling is that?

The PQ attack ads have apparently NOT worked.

So, the CPC fortunes are falling in AB, they can't get anywhere in PQ, they are set to lose seats in BC, and Atlantic Canada, and the Liberals are still leading the CPC in Ontario, despite the not so brilliant attack ads.

And how funny is that, the CPC are supposed to have gone up 3 in ON, while Liberals are down 3, and 3.1 is the margin of error?

No doubt the 3.1 % margin of error, plays into the 2 point lead over the Liberals, and the Green jump as well.

The Greens only got 3% of the vote in recent by elections, so it is doubtful they have jumped anywhere, and now that May has called Canadians stupid, that 3% may just be going to dim further.

[Saturn]

...now that May has called Canadians stupid...

When did that happen? Any sources on this? Thx.

[geoffrey]

Truthfully, Harper and his government are going no where, with the Canadian public. And MORE importantly, not even in Alberta. Now how telling is that?

Where exactly can Harper go in Alberta? Win the seats by even greater super majorities?

[Saturn]

Truthfully, Harper and his government are going no where, with the Canadian public. And MORE importantly, not even in Alberta. Now how telling is that?

Where exactly can Harper go in Alberta? Win the seats by even greater super majorities?

Nowhere really. You are going to let him transfer all of Alberta to Quebec before you consider taking a seat or two away from him.

[jdobbin]

Latest Ipsos Reid poll.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/070224/...poll_canada_col

The Ipsos-Reid poll, published in the National Post newspaper on Saturday, put support for the Conservatives at 36 percent, compared with 34 percent for the opposition Liberals.

That more or less reverses the positions in a previous Ipsos-Reid poll in January, which put the Conservatives at 33 percent and the Liberals at 37 percent.

Not really close for a majority despite what some here think. It still isn't beyond the realm that someone will pull the plug though. I really don't think that Harper is looking forward to spring in Afghanistan.