Canadian Political Polls

[blueblood]

I don't think the conservatives want a quick election, and plus they won't introduce policies simply to get them voted out or else they will be viewed negatively by the public.

It looks like the Green Party could win a few seats, but once again, everything can change within a few weeks.

They can do it subtely. For example seriously cutting the corporate tax rate to placate the income trust issue.

This will have the anti-business crowd of the far left clammoring for blood and forcing Dion's hand for him.

It would be a good political strategy AND a wise economic move.

See?

Christ, I should be a strategist.

10% corporate tax rate and a muzzle on the unions. A good economy is good for all.

[White Doors]

Might be too steep of a drop for one budget but they could start the ball rolling for sure!

[blueblood]

Might be too steep of a drop for one budget but they could start the ball rolling for sure!

It would sure help out Atlantic Canada that's for sure.

[jdobbin]

It was an on line poll? Where is the evidence of this?

I followed the link and it said the Angus Reid Strategies poll was conducted by a random sampling online of 3000 people.

I know that the pollsters are using online polling more and more but it still isn't as popular with companies as telephone polling. Nor is it as accurate. This is why they take three times the sample. I still feel dubious about the numbers till I've seen a rolling poll done by telephone.

[jdobbin]

No evidence. A hunch that he better they are doing in the polls, the more rique the budget will be to 'dare' the liberals to take them down. A good way would be to decrease taxes and maybe lower funding to one dept to give them something to howl about.

Either way, exciting times afoot!

I was just reading that it looks like income splitting for everyone is probably off the table. It is just too expensive. I imagine the Finance department has told the minister that any country that has done this has tried to scale back the program as it is a monster to budget for.

[jdobbin]

I don't think the conservatives want a quick election, and plus they won't introduce policies simply to get them voted out or else they will be viewed negatively by the public.

It looks like the Green Party could win a few seats, but once again, everything can change within a few weeks.

I think the Conservatives might want an election if they feel Afghanistan will hurt them. You should read how the Spanish and South Koreans have reacted to having their soldiers killed. It doesn't give me a lot of faith that NATO and other allies will be there to take over for us on the frontline anytime soon.

An election now could mean two years or more years depending on a majority or minority where the Tories could weather the possible downward turn at the polls as a result of the war. If they even wait till May, we could be seeing more Canadians coming home as casualties. The Conservatives could see the lead they have evaporate. Moreover, the Van Doos from Quebec are now taking over in Kandahar and casualties there could hurt Quebec Tories in the extreme.

[Catchme]

It was an on line poll? Where is the evidence of this?

I followed the link and it said the Angus Reid Strategies poll was conducted by a random sampling online of 3000 people.

I know that the pollsters are using online polling more and more but it still isn't as popular with companies as telephone polling. Nor is it as accurate. This is why they take three times the sample. I still feel dubious about the numbers till I've seen a rolling poll done by telephone.

Yes, while I was waiting I found this out, and see that you can register at angus reid forums to do their polls, so if people of one persuasion know what they are voting on, all they have to do is get people of like mind to register and vote, skews results beautifully.

[Canadian Blue]

Their results are abit similar to Decimas though...

[White Doors]

No evidence. A hunch that he better they are doing in the polls, the more rique the budget will be to 'dare' the liberals to take them down. A good way would be to decrease taxes and maybe lower funding to one dept to give them something to howl about.

Either way, exciting times afoot!

I was just reading that it looks like income splitting for everyone is probably off the table. It is just too expensive. I imagine the Finance department has told the minister that any country that has done this has tried to scale back the program as it is a monster to budget for.

Even though families are good for society in that this is the way that they produce the next generation of productive workers... I think more can be donefor our productivity through decreasing the marginal rates of income taxes for now. Income splittin gis getting too far ahead of where we have to go. Some day that will be THE most legitimate tax cut, but it is not now.

[White Doors]

Might be too steep of a drop for one budget but they could start the ball rolling for sure!

It would sure help out Atlantic Canada that's for sure.

Hey! I agree! ANY tax cut for the maritimes can ONLY be beneficial for the economy. Wean the east coast off of hand outs and encourage inovation. Can't lose.

[White Doors]

I think the Conservatives might want an election if they feel Afghanistan will hurt them. You should read how the Spanish and South Koreans have reacted to having their soldiers killed. It doesn't give me a lot of faith that NATO and other allies will be there to take over for us on the frontline anytime soon.

Then again, Canadians are NOT south koreans or Spanish are they? After you look through the short term agony of 'death polls' Canadiand 'buck up' if they believe. Canadians have a hard earned reputation of being ferocious warriors.. Both combatants and civilians. We just need to believe. If we cannot believe in Afghanistan - what conflict CAN we really BELIEVE in?

[jdobbin]

Even though families are good for society in that this is the way that they produce the next generation of productive workers... I think more can be donefor our productivity through decreasing the marginal rates of income taxes for now. Income splittin gis getting too far ahead of where we have to go. Some day that will be THE most legitimate tax cut, but it is not now.

I think the fairest income taxes are for individuals. Why penalize single taxpayers which many people start off as and often end up as?

[jdobbin]

Their results are abit similar to Decimas though...

The online poll has the Greens ways down from the NDP and the Conservatives at majority territory. Not that similar.

[jdobbin]

Then again, Canadians are NOT south koreans or Spanish are they? After you look through the short term agony of 'death polls' Canadiand 'buck up' if they believe. Canadians have a hard earned reputation of being ferocious warriors.. Both combatants and civilians. We just need to believe. If we cannot believe in Afghanistan - what conflict CAN we really BELIEVE in?

Support for the mission has always been rather split. It always goes down with casualties.

If you think it will go up with casualties this time, you might be mistaken.

[White Doors]

Then again, Canadians are NOT south koreans or Spanish are they? After you look through the short term agony of 'death polls' Canadiand 'buck up' if they believe. Canadians have a hard earned reputation of being ferocious warriors.. Both combatants and civilians. We just need to believe. If we cannot believe in Afghanistan - what conflict CAN we really BELIEVE in?

Support for the mission has always been rather split. It always goes down with casualties.

If you think it will go up with casualties this time, you might be mistaken.

Actually, that is false. Support FOR the mission went UP last spring whne we were getting the most casualties. Too bad your bias cannot recognize that - as it is the truth.

[madmax]

We just need to believe. If we cannot believe in Afghanistan - what conflict CAN we really BELIEVE in

What do you want to believe in Afghanistan? The mission, or the aid, or the governments move towards Islamic Fundamentalism? Sorry, I don't need to "believe" in anything. We need to know what we are doing over there, and how can that be accomplished. It is 6 years later, and there hasn't been any significant progress, and now that the Karzai government has little to show for its duration and there is a movement both internally towards greater fundamentalism, more freedom for warlords, and then externally, people are once again providing shelter for a resurgent Taliban. Afghan soldiers aren't trustworthy and neither back the government or our troops. Pakistan and the US helped create Islamic Fundamentalism in Afghanistan, and the US has to use its leverage to have Pakistan take a more active role in uprooting the insurgents vs providing them aid, food, and weapons to kill Canadians with. This is as messy as it gets, and Afghanistan isn't the simplistic good vs evil.

What I do believe, is that the 200 million the government just added to the 100million for this year, is a step in the right direction. And I believe that Canada is the good guys. After that, it is clear as mud.

[madmax]

The online poll has the Greens ways down from the NDP and the Conservatives at majority territory. Not that similar.

There are so many polls, coming out I am getting confused. Is the online poll the one that has the Conservatives near 40% and the Greens at 8%?

[White Doors]

Even though families are good for society in that this is the way that they produce the next generation of productive workers... I think more can be donefor our productivity through decreasing the marginal rates of income taxes for now. Income splittin gis getting too far ahead of where we have to go. Some day that will be THE most legitimate tax cut, but it is not now.

I think the fairest income taxes are for individuals. Why penalize single taxpayers which many people start off as and often end up as?

As do I. But you CANNOT argue that a couple that HAS children is not more valuable to our society as those that do not. YOU can't because it is true.

And our taxation, faulty as it may be, DOES attempt to recognize this - for that exact reason.

[White Doors]

What do you want to believe in Afghanistan? The mission, or the aid, or the governments move towards Islamic Fundamentalism? Sorry, I don't need to "believe" in anything. We need to know what we are doing over there, and how can that be accomplished. It is 6 years later, and there hasn't been any significant progress, and now that the Karzai government has little to show for its duration and there is a movement both internally towards greater fundamentalism, more freedom for warlords, and then externally, people are once again providing shelter for a resurgent Taliban. Afghan soldiers aren't trustworthy and neither back the government or our troops. Pakistan and the US helped create Islamic Fundamentalism in Afghanistan, and the US has to use its leverage to have Pakistan take a more active role in uprooting the insurgents vs providing them aid, food, and weapons to kill Canadians with. This is as messy as it gets, and Afghanistan isn't the simplistic good vs evil.

But your assumptions are FALSE according to Afhani's AND the CDN soldiers THERE. Some of which post here. If you choose, you can believe poser and her ideological bent.

Other than that we are continuing our tradition and will continue to do so.

Why? Because it is the RIGHT thing to do.

[madmax]

Actually, that is false. Support FOR the mission went UP last spring whne we were getting the most casualties. Too bad your bias cannot recognize that - as it is the truth.

There were casualties in the spring months, I have no idea that support went up, if so that is perhaps because of some speeches by the Prime Minister. However as these casualties increased throughout the year and particularly the months of August and September support for the mission plummetted.

[madmax]

But your assumptions are FALSE according to Afhani's AND the CDN soldiers THERE. Some of which post here.

My concerns with the Loyalty of the Afghan army are real. My concerns have been verified as TRUE.

Army Guy

I would be extremily surprised if they went to this, for lots of reasons. Not all the afgans on the government side are loyal to the government....and money does alot of talking over here if you know what i mean...

To lead or provide security for any convoy you need to know the route, the convoy compostion, ie wpns, manpower, veh type....all this info is closely gaurded for good reason, and released to only those that need to know, and not until the last possiable moment. ( these precautions are taken with Canadian soldiers) Now throw into the mix uncertainity of the loyality of your escort or for that matter giving them advance warning so they could block off routes etc etc ...Not a very good idea...

You can't do any better than this?

If you choose, you can believe poser and her ideological bent.

You have provided no Argument for your position. And if this is the best you can do, you are completely unarmed. You wanna quote my Afghan quotes, and discuss it in the Afghan thread. I am ready.

[jbg]

For some reason I have a feeling the Liberal's are starting to regret picking Stephane Dion over the other leadership contenders. Harper's successful because he seems to be much more moderate then many voters believed he would be. As well the Green's are picking up more support, and it appears that they are tied with the NDP.

Harper's command of Canadian is a bit better than Dion's as well.

[August1991]

I don't think the conservatives want a quick election, and plus they won't introduce policies simply to get them voted out or else they will be viewed negatively by the public.

All things considered, my opinion too. Every day in power brings Harper and the Conservatives one day closer to a majority. (Why? Having an honest but realistic government takes some getting used to. Canadians have gotten to know Harper better, and they're getting to know now the Conservative cabinet and caucus.)

----

But since this thread is about polls, let's keep it focussed:

It was an on line poll? Where is the evidence of this?

I followed the link and it said the Angus Reid Strategies poll was conducted by a random sampling online of 3000 people.

I know that the pollsters are using online polling more and more but it still isn't as popular with companies as telephone polling. Nor is it as accurate. This is why they take three times the sample. I still feel dubious about the numbers till I've seen a rolling poll done by telephone.

Dobbin, is a telephone (that far too many don't answer now) any better than a computer screen?

My quibble is that the claim of a sample of 3000 is misleading. To get a non-random, representative sample, Angus Reid obtained responses from 3000 people. That's not the same as a random sample of 3000 people.

Random sampling in Canada is now impossible. Anyone who claims to do it is lying.

[jdobbin]

Actually, that is false. Support FOR the mission went UP last spring whne we were getting the most casualties. Too bad your bias cannot recognize that - as it is the truth.

Citation for that? Because what actually happened was it was in steady decline until the fall when Karzai came and spoke. It has stabilized over the winter but the last Decima poll a few weeks ago had it at 50-50.

[jdobbin]

As do I. But you CANNOT argue that a couple that HAS children is not more valuable to our society as those that do not. YOU can't because it is true.

And our taxation, faulty as it may be, DOES attempt to recognize this - for that exact reason.

I'd rather not have a tax system that was patently unfair to individuals.