Canadian Political Polls

[madmax]

I still don't want an election. I think it is in the best interests of the country and the Conservative party to govern for at least another year.

[jdobbin]

What are the sample sizes?

Which polls?

If you could point out what you are referring it would make it a lot easier to judge what you are saying fairly.

The information on the rolling poll is here.

http://www.decima.com/en/pdf/news_releases/070309E.pdf

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...y/National/home

The results for women, urban, and over-50 voters are based on larger three-week samples.

The sample sizes listed are only a few hundred for Ontario and Quebec if the national poll sample is 1000. It isn't accurate enough to find out where support might be concentrated.

[geoffrey]

Another is that magical 40% mark for winning a majority probably won't be the threshold if the Greens stay a strong as they are and their support is national rather than regionally centered.

Chretien only needed 36.4%.

[jdobbin]

Another is that magical 40% mark for winning a majority probably won't be the threshold if the Greens stay a strong as they are and their support is national rather than regionally centered.

Chretien only needed 36.4%.

Quite true. And that was because the conservative vote was split.

The reason the pollsters have been saying over 40% for the Tories is needed is because of Quebec and because conservative votes are heavily concentrated in areas they already have seats in.

[geoffrey]

The reason the pollsters have been saying over 40% for the Tories is needed is because of Quebec and because conservative votes are heavily concentrated in areas they already have seats in.

Less so IMO. CPC support has slipped a bit in Alberta... and if it's stable throughout the country, one would be reasonable to assume someone else is supporting the party too.

That support in Alberta, while lower now, will increase election day. I was even thinking of voting Liberal (prior to Dion's election, that sealed the deal against it... I went out and voted Morton 10 minutes later, it would have been Dinning if Kennedy or Iggy won). But on election day, as an Albertan I'd struggle to bring the pencil up to whoever my no-name candidate was for the Liberals. They just really have no interest in our province, no understanding. Look at the anti-Alberta mouthpeice Mark Holland. He gets votes for the LPC in Ontario by flapping his jaw about how terrible Alberta is.

It's the Liberal way. Anyone in Alberta polling to vote Liberal today that hasn't before isn't going to vote Liberal.

What is Dion selling us that we can't get from Harper? And at what price?

This election for me is likely to be a spoiled ballot election the more and more I think this one over. I want to see some fresh blood in the CPC leadership before I recommit to that machine. Harper is gone if it's another minority.

It's not like my vote counts for much anyways, I'm in Harper's riding, he's going to win even if he was caught with that dragon in his backyard the day before the election.

[jbg]

They just really have no interest in our province, no understanding. Look at the anti-Alberta mouthpeice Mark Holland. He gets votes for the LPC in Ontario by flapping his jaw about how terrible Alberta is.

It's the Liberal way. Anyone in Alberta polling to vote Liberal today that hasn't before isn't going to vote Liberal.

As Big Sugar (link) put it (in a song they won't even play in Ontario):

]I am a workin' man

But I ain't worked for a while

Like some old tin can

From the bottom of the pile

I have lost my way

But I hear a tale

About a heaven in Alberta

Where they've got all hell for a basement

My words are like a rope

That's wrapped around my throat

Wash my mouth with soap

For words unfit to quote

I have lost my way

But I hear a tale

About a heaven in Alberta

Where they've got all hell for a basement

I have lost my way

But I hear a tale

About a heaven in Alberta

Where they've got all hell for a basement

And now I'm free to go

But time cannot remove

The only life I know

Now only time will prove

Yes only time will prove

I have lost my way

But I hear a tale

About a heaven in Alberta

Where they've got all hell for a basement

Yeah I lost my way

But I hear a tale

About a heaven in Alberta

Where they've got all hell for a basement

[jdobbin]

It's the Liberal way. Anyone in Alberta polling to vote Liberal today that hasn't before isn't going to vote Liberal.

What is Dion selling us that we can't get from Harper? And at what price?

This election for me is likely to be a spoiled ballot election the more and more I think this one over. I want to see some fresh blood in the CPC leadership before I recommit to that machine. Harper is gone if it's another minority.

It's not like my vote counts for much anyways, I'm in Harper's riding, he's going to win even if he was caught with that dragon in his backyard the day before the election.

I'm not sure what policies the Liberals will have in this next election. At the moment, Dion is in much the same position as Harper was before the last election. No one was sure who he really was and were afraid.

One thing you are right about is that the Liberals will have to get the right people in place and the right ideas. I think one of the main reasons why Chretien was voted for by business people was because of Paul Martin.

Dion is going to have to make sure that he has an SOB in finance to reel in spending.

[Argus]

Tories should delay performing cartwheels. A 35-29 margin bears an uncanny resemblance to the results of the last election - 36-30. Additionally, this latest sounding says Consevatives have lost fully one-third of their Quebec support. Goodbye Quebec City seats.

Not at all. Liberal support is concentrated in and around Montreal. That this support is rising even further is essentially meaningless to the Tories. Their support is among more conservative Quebecers to the east around Quebec city.

Dion's squishy lefty campaign against the military, against national security, against new laws on crime all play well among ethnics and the trendy types in TO and Montreal, not so much in the rest of Canada or even, necessarily, among conservative Quebecers. If Harper holds onto the west and makes further inroads in Ontario - which appears to be happening, he will at the very least hang onto his government, probably with a larger minority and more maneuvering room.

[jdobbin]

Not at all. Liberal support is concentrated in and around Montreal. That this support is rising even further is essentially meaningless to the Tories. Their support is among more conservative Quebecers to the east around Quebec city.

Unless you are privy to private polls that have a larger sample, I don't think you know where Tory support is concentrated.

[Argus]

Not at all. Liberal support is concentrated in and around Montreal. That this support is rising even further is essentially meaningless to the Tories. Their support is among more conservative Quebecers to the east around Quebec city.

Unless you are privy to private polls that have a larger sample, I don't think you know where Tory support is concentrated.

You mean whether it is concentrated elsewhere than where they won seats? It stands to reason that if their support came from more conservative areas, and Dion has embarked on moving the Liberals to the left that Tory support would probably not erode too much.

[jdobbin]

You mean whether it is concentrated elsewhere than where they won seats? It stands to reason that if their support came from more conservative areas, and Dion has embarked on moving the Liberals to the left that Tory support would probably not erode too much.

No one knows where there support is concentrated at the moment. There has always been a base of support for the Tories in the province that has been eroded because of the BQ nationalist vote. However, the BQ support is now falling while the Liberal support has risen. Tory support is flat and more downward post election. It really is a toss up what is happening in the province until a large poll is taken after the provincial election.

[Michael Bluth]

All of these numbers are based on the the Angus Reid polll released on Wednesday.

By region the Conservatives look like they could pick up a couple seats in the Québec city region because of Bloc support leaking to the Liberals.

Ontario is the huge area for growth for the Conservatives. A gain of 15 to 20 seats in the province would be likely if these numbers hold. i.e. their strength plus vote splitting between the NDP and the Greens.

BC is a tough nut to crack. The Liberals are definitely poised to lose at least three of their nine seats out there. Any losses would probably break two to one for the NDP.

Dion could be flirting with losing official opposition status. Wow, the Liberals as a third party in the house. Canada's natural governing party my arse...

National: n= 1,059

CPC 38%

LPC 28%

NDP 15%

BQ 10%

Green 8%

Quebec

BQ 37%

CPC 25%

LPC 24%

Ontario

CPC 41%

LPC 36%

NDP 15%

Green 7%

BC

CPC 37%

LPC 19%

NDP 32%

Green 12%

[jdobbin]

All of these numbers are based on the the Angus Reid polll released on Wednesday.

By region the Conservatives look like they could pick up a couple seats in the Québec city region because of Bloc support leaking to the Liberals.

Angus Reid polls have been questioned now a couple of times for their accuracy.

As I mentioned before, based on the sample on Ontario and Quebec, it is difficult to see where support is concentrated beyond traditional territory the parties have held previously.

Based on the last poll though, Tory support is down 2, Liberal support up 2.

[Michael Bluth]

Angus Reid polls have been questioned now a couple of times for their accuracy.

As I mentioned before, based on the sample on Ontario and Quebec, it is difficult to see where support is concentrated beyond traditional territory the parties have held previously.

Based on the last poll though, Tory support is down 2, Liberal support up 2.

Questioned by you? But you do point out the numbers in the poll that support your position? So you question those parts of the poll you don't agree with but use the parts you do agree with. Hmmm, very interesting...

The Conservatives are in majority territory even with their two point drop.

Again, look at the regional breakdowns. The Liberals aren't going anywhere. Definitely look to see an election called by the end of April.

[jdobbin]

Questioned by you? But you do point out the numbers in the poll that support your position? So you question those parts of the poll you don't agree with but use the parts you do agree with. Hmmm, very interesting...

The Conservatives are in majority territory even with their two point drop.

Again, look at the regional breakdowns. The Liberals aren't going anywhere. Definitely look to see an election called by the end of April.

Questioned by Decima. It is in this thread. They questioned the accuracy of the online polling methods used by Reid.

Most pollsters still use phone calls for their polling.

I personally pay more heed to SES, Leger, Ipsos, Decima and others based on methodology.

[Michael Bluth]

Questioned by Decima. It is in this thread. They questioned the accuracy of the online polling methods used by Reid.

Most pollsters still use phone calls for their polling.

I personally pay more heed to SES, Leger, Ipsos, Decima and others based on methodology.

SES is by far the best.

Of course Decima is going to attack Reid. They are business competitors.

The Internet methodology is interesting.

If you compare the last Angus Reid and Decima polls they are very similar.

Angus Reid has the Conservatives three points higher and the Liberals one point lower. The NDP the same. The Decima numbers for the Bloc are historic lows which don't really make much sense.

Either way, the Conservatives are trending up. They are close to majority territory, even reading the Decima polls.

[geoffrey]

Dion is going to have to make sure that he has an SOB in finance to reel in spending.

Who's that? They all left and went Conservative. There aren't any SOB business attractive liberals in the house currently. They're going to have to go out and handpick one.

Somehow I just don't feel it's Dion style. Academics make poor leaders, Dion is terrible, Harper has his unique difficulties in other ways (ie, he an ass). Why would someone quit their high paying job to likely sit in opposition?

Dion's got to deliver the numbers before you see another Paul Martin come out of the woodwork.

[jdobbin]

Either way, the Conservatives are trending up. They are close to majority territory, even reading the Decima polls.

According to Decima, they are exactly where they were following the election: in minority territory.

[jdobbin]

Who's that? They all left and went Conservative. There aren't any SOB business attractive liberals in the house currently. They're going to have to go out and handpick one.

Somehow I just don't feel it's Dion style. Academics make poor leaders, Dion is terrible, Harper has his unique difficulties in other ways (ie, he an ass). Why would someone quit their high paying job to likely sit in opposition?

Dion's got to deliver the numbers before you see another Paul Martin come out of the woodwork.

Hard to say who he will pick. I think for this reason, he took Goodale out of Finance and put McCallum in. He wanted no one entrenched in the position and expecting to be the Finance minister if an election was called.

I think if Dion were smart, he would pick Ignatieff. The responsibility of the job would keep the man well involved and I think he could be a proper SOB, don't you?

[jdobbin]

Liberals in Lead in Quebec.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/070310/...quebec_poll_col

A CROP poll for Montreal's La Presse newspaper put support for the Liberals at 33 percent, with the Parti Quebecois trailing at 29 percent.

The Action Democratique du Quebec continued its surprising rise in popularity, polling 26 percent.

Minority territory for the Liberals?

I wonder how Charest thinks about national Conservatives helping ADQ?

[Michael Bluth]

According to Decima, they are exactly where they were following the election: in minority territory.

According to Angus Reid the Conservatives level of national support is .46% below the level the Liberals won a majority with in 1997. Remember that the the level of support the Conservatives need to win a majority goes down with the Greens doing much more strongly in the polls.

The Conservatives have held their support, while some Bloc, Liberal and NDP support has all gone to the Greens.

With a fifth party potentially in the House the Conservatives might be able to win a majority with

[jdobbin]

According to Angus Reid the Conservatives level of national support is .46% below the level the Liberals won a majority with in 1997. Remember that the the level of support the Conservatives need to win a majority goes down with the Greens doing much more strongly in the polls.

The Conservatives have held their support, while some Bloc, Liberal and NDP support has all gone to the Greens.

With a fifth party potentially in the House the Conservatives might be able to win a majority with

Some of the pollsters have said that 40% is where the Tories need to be because of where their vote is concentrated.

They've also said (Decima) that the Green vote is soft and spread out. The highest concentration of Green vote is in Alberta.

[Michael Bluth]

Some of the pollsters have said that 40% is where the Tories need to be because of where their vote is concentrated.

They've also said (Decima) that the Green vote is soft and spread out. The highest concentration of Green vote is in Alberta.

40% is an easy rule of thumb but it isn't a hard and fast rule. Look at the 1997 election results. Votes split on one side of the spectrum. The majornparty on the other side wins a majority with more than a full point less than 40% of the vote.

The Green vote being spread out is good for the Conservatives. It means they steal votes from the Liberals and NDP in a lot of different areas.

The highest concentration of Green vote is in Alberta for a reason. If you count the Green as a major party the Greens have, by far, the second most socially conservative leader & policies of all five major parties. Too bad for them they won't be competitive in any ridings here in Alberta. Maybe, just maybe Edmonton Strathcona, but doubtful...

[jdobbin]

40% is an easy rule of thumb but it isn't a hard and fast rule. Look at the 1997 election results. Votes split on one side of the spectrum. The majornparty on the other side wins a majority with more than a full point less than 40% of the vote.

The Green vote being spread out is good for the Conservatives. It means they steal votes from the Liberals and NDP in a lot of different areas.

The highest concentration of Green vote is in Alberta for a reason. If you count the Green as a major party the Greens have, by far, the second most socially conservative leader & policies of all five major parties. Too bad for them they won't be competitive in any ridings here in Alberta. Maybe, just maybe Edmonton Strathcona, but doubtful...

Alberta will remain a one party state for as long as I'm alive. I don't see that changing.

It should be mentioned that Greens support has come not just at the cost of the Liberals and NDP but of the Conservatives as well.

[Michael Bluth]

Alberta will remain a one party state for as long as I'm alive. I don't see that changing.

It should be mentioned that Greens support has come not just at the cost of the Liberals and NDP but of the Conservatives as well.

Where?