Canadian Political Polls

[jdobbin]

The polls where the CPC are in 40% areas are probably closer to the truth then those saying 36%. I would guess that in all honesty the real numbers would be closer to 47% in most areas, but like I said I do not put any faith in polls. If any election was called today it would be a slaughter to Dion and the liberals. That is why I do not think that an election will be called at all, no matter what is in the speech from the throne.

If it is 47%, the Tories could win the largest majority in Canadian history. That is your prediction?

[jdobbin]

gc175,

Because a) The Strategic council poll is consistantly friendly to the Liberals as the Ipos Reid is to Tories, so the actual truth is somewhere between the two, meaning gains for the Tories. The Tories now have a well respected election machine that would increase its popularity if an election were called. c) There has been a paradigm shift in Canada which has seen support for the Tories among movers and shakers grow. As well, even in the media, a strong minority cover them with objectivity, and some favourable, which all translate into gains during an election. d) The Liberals are weak and are back stabbing each other, what better time for an election from the Tories perspective.

I've heard this sort of dumping on the pollsters before. However, I've never read anything that backs what you say about Ipsos and Strategic Counsel.

[sharkman]

I've heard this sort of dumping on the pollsters before. However, I've never read anything that backs what you say about Ipsos and Strategic Counsel.

So aside from that you agree with everything I've said? BTW, that is not dumping by any stretch. But if not bias, what do you attribute the several point difference to?

[Canuck E Stan]

Just thinking back to the time of Kim Campbell's election.

Does anybody know what the polls said just before election day? Percentage for the Liberals,the Conservatives?

I can't seem to find those figures.Thanks

[Canuck E Stan]

repeated post

Edited October 16, 2007 by Canuck E Stan

[jdobbin]

So aside from that you agree with everything I've said? BTW, that is not dumping by any stretch. But if not bias, what do you attribute the several point difference to?

I agree there is a difference but the math of polling doesn't change. I have no idea why the numbers are different since the questions asked seem identical. I don't attribute it to bias though.

Political polling plays such a small part of the bottom line of these pollsters and if these companies were thought to massage the numbers, they'd go out of business since no one could rely on them.

[Canuck E Stan]

Just thinking back to the time of Kim Campbell's election.

Does anybody know what the polls said just before election day? Percentage for the Liberals,the Conservatives?

I can't seem to find those figures.Thanks

finally found it.

For those interested:

Polls During the 1993 Campaign

Seems back then,the PC's and the Liberals played the same game in the poll as they are now,almost evenly split.

In a matter of 5 weeks the PC's lost 19 points in the polls, the Reform party gained 9 points, while the Liberals only gained 5 points from the almost even split when the election was called.

Without the Reform party being in the picture, would the PC's have won?

[gc1765]

gc175,

Because a) The Strategic council poll is consistantly friendly to the Liberals as the Ipos Reid is to Tories, so the actual truth is somewhere between the two, meaning gains for the Tories.

Interesting, considering that prior to the 2006 federal election, the Strategic counsel overestimated the Conservative vote and underestimated the Liberal vote...and at one point gave the Conservatives an 18 point lead! Not to mention that it is run by a former Conservative...

As for the rest of your post, these things have been happening for the past year and a half, and yet that still hasn't changed anything according to the polls.

[jdobbin]

Seems back then,the PC's and the Liberals played the same game in the poll as they are now,almost evenly split.

In a matter of 5 weeks the PC's lost 19 points in the polls, the Reform party gained 9 points, while the Liberals only gained 5 points from the almost even split when the election was called.

Without the Reform party being in the picture, would the PC's have won?

The election of Kim Campbell was a fairly large boost in the polls for the Tories considering they were suffering towards the last months. Mulroney had poll numbers that were extremely low and had pulled the Tories down considerably as well. Despite the efforts of Campbell, the party was poorly organized in part because of the mass retirements prior to the election.

It wasn't just the Liberals that defeated the Tories. It was the two split off parties of the PCs, namely the Bloc and the Reformers, that gave the party a clobbering.

[jdobbin]

Latest Ipsos poll.

http://ca.today.reuters.com/news/newsArtic...OLITICS-COL.XML

The federal Conservatives might have enough support to win a majority government, according to a poll released on Saturday, but the vast majority of Canadians do not want an election now.

The poll by Ipsos-Reid showed support for the Conservatives holding steady at 40 percent, the minimum level needed to have a chance of winning a majority of seats in Parliament.

Support for the opposition Liberals slipped to 27 percent from 28 percent.

The poll was conducted from October 16-18, including the period after the Conservatives promised a platform of measures that included tax cuts and a tough anti-crime bill in a policy document known as the Throne Speech.

The Conservatives have only a minority of seats in Parliament and defeat of their platform would have led to a new election. But Liberal leader Stephane Dion said he would not bring the government down over the issue.

"It appears that Stephane Dion was correct when he declared that Canadians do not want an election at this time," Ipsos-Reid said of its poll, conducted for Global TV and CanWest newspapers.

Sixty-eight percent of Canadians said an election should not be held before the spring because the government still had work to do, the survey of 1,000 voters showed.

I suspected that if a confidence motion had brought the government down that there would indeed have been a backlash against the Liberals for making it happen.

All parties will have to be careful now. If the government or the any party brings down the government over an issue that seems controversial, there could be a price to pay.

Edited October 20, 2007 by jdobbin

[Canuck E Stan]

Latest Ipsos poll.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...18?hub=Politics

JD,

Doesn't appear to be the right link.

[jdobbin]

JD,

Doesn't appear to be the right link.

Thanks. Changed it to this:

http://ca.today.reuters.com/news/newsArtic...OLITICS-COL.XML

Also Unimarketing in Quebec released this poll:

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/assets/pdf/CP10431020.PDF

It is a PDF file though.

It lists the Tories at 36%, the Liberals at 25% and the NDP at 19 with the BQ at 10%.

I have never heard of Unimarketing before but it seems a thorough poll.

Edited October 21, 2007 by jdobbin

[jdobbin]

http://www.thestar.com/News/article/268855

Pollsters analyze how the Tories are appealing to women.

When Angus Reid asked 1,018 respondents online to say whether they were satisfied with key themes in the speech, men were far more likely than women respondents to say they were. A full 50 per cent of men liked what the speech had to say on Arctic sovereignty, while only 26 per cent of women did. On crime legislation, 46 per cent of men were satisfied, but only 29 per cent of women; on Afghanistan, 37 per cent of men, 22 per cent of women.

The poll, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday last week, is considered accurate within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

[betsy]

The latest poll was given yesterday at MDuffy Live.

The question of the poll: Will you be comfortable with a Conservative majority?

60% said yes.

[old_bold&cold]

The latest poll was given yesterday at MDuffy Live.

The question of the poll: Will you be comfortable with a Conservative majority?

60% said yes.

I can see that, and I would say that given another couple months, that number will be much higher. There will not be any way that the Liberals can use the scarey Harper lable without it backfiring. But as the Liberal party is all about shooting themselves in the foot lately, I am not so sure they will not try this tactic again.

Canadians can see without all the political manouvoring, that Harper is getting things past in parliament, and he can only do that with majority support, so he is the one that will get the credit. They do not see this as forcing and bullying, as they know he can not do this without getting support from some where, to warrant a majority position for things to pass. He has shown that not only can he make a minority work. He can do this woithout there being a new scandle every day. He governs with dignity, and yes, he does command control of his people, just like any good commander should, as he is ultimately responsible for all their collective actions. Something that the Liberals never managed to do and that is where we learned how to point fingers in the first place.

Soon that 40% will climb towards this 60% figure, as more and more people take closer looks at what is happening lately.

[betsy]

I can see that, and I would say that given another couple months, that number will be much higher.

A couple of Political Analysts that were guests at Duffy said that the Liberal's problem in Quebec is more likely to have a "mirror" effect in Ontario. They say that the next poll might indicate a number much higher than that since they (the analysts) are starting to see signs of Liberal decline in Ontario and the Maritimes.

[jdobbin]

Latest Ipsos poll.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/071029/...canada_poll_col

Canada's ruling Conservatives have slipped slightly in public support but are still well ahead of the opposition Liberals, according to a new poll.

The Ipsos-Reid survey put the Conservatives on 39 percent, down one point from a poll done by the same firm a week before. The Liberals were steady at 27 percent while support for the left-leaning New Democrats rose three points to 17 percent.

The poll was issued on Saturday but Ipsos-Reid did not send out advisories to the media until Monday.

The Conservatives won power in January 2006 with 36 percent of the vote, but have only a minority of seats in Parliament.

Under Canada's first-past-the-post electoral system, a party needs to win around 40 percent of the vote to stand a chance of taking a majority of the 308 seats in the House of Commons. The Conservatives currently have 126 seats.

[jbg]

I suspect that the CPC would get a majority if people were forced to choose, in actual polling, between the one-man wrecking crew of Dion and Harper.

[jdobbin]

I suspect that the CPC would get a majority if people were forced to choose, in actual polling, between the one-man wrecking crew of Dion and Harper.

If Harper really thinks so, there is nothing stopping him from going to the GG tomorrow. Certainly the legislation on fixed election dates is open to interpretation. All he has to say is that he has lost confidence because the NDP won't let the Finance minister makes his finance update.

[tom cody]

More and more I think that Harper will get a majority government in the next federal election and more I like the idea of that. The Liberals are falling apart at the seams while the governing Conservatives are getting the job when it comes to key government policies. Harper, aside from the Atlantic Accord broken promise, has done a great job in government and on election day he'll have my support.

[capricorn]

... on election day he'll have my support.

Tom, you don't have to answer if you don't wish to. Have you always been a Conservative Party supporter?

[jbg]

If Harper really thinks so, there is nothing stopping him from going to the GG tomorrow.

Since the fixed date bill was a CPC suggestion and campaign promise that would be political suicide.

Certainly the legislation on fixed election dates is open to interpretation. All he has to say is that he has lost confidence because the NDP won't let the Finance minister makes his finance update.

And how can the NDP stop him from doing that?

[jbg]

....because the NDP won't let the Finance minister makes his finance update.

Authority?

[jdobbin]

Since the fixed date bill was a CPC suggestion and campaign promise that would be political suicide.

And how can the NDP stop him from doing that?

The government can claim confidence even without a vote.

As for the NDP, they are preventing the consensus needed for the Tories to make the announcement tomorrow in the House.

http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2007/10/29/f...ystatement.html

Flaherty had wanted to present the economic statement in the House of Commons. But changing the House schedule on one day's notice requires the unanimous consent of all parties, and the NDP has refused, calling the late-notice announcement a political stunt.

"If I can't do it in the House of Commons because of the NDP, then I'll do it somewhere else," Flaherty told reporters.

CBC-TV's senior parliamentary editor, Don Newman, noted that the last time an economic update was delivered in the House of Commons — rather than before the House of Commons finance committee — was Oct. 18, 2000. That economic statement included large tax cuts.

Days later, the governing Liberals called a general election.

[jdobbin]

Authority?

See above. Last time this happened, an election was called immediately after.