Liberal Leadership Race

[jdobbin]

I've been saying Harper could never beat Dryden since before the last election. Apparently the electoral public agrees with me: http://www.gandalfgroup.ca/downloads/Liber...lics_Choice.pdf

Now the Liberal Party just needs to get onside.

Do you think if Bennett takes her support to Rae, she can put Rae ahead? The numbers of this poll seem to indicate that if she can, Rae goes ahead in the polls.

[gc1765]

I'm surprised that Dryden has such high support. You don't hear much about him in the media. All we hear about is ignatieff, who apparently isn't even doing that well (good riddance).

[jdobbin]

I'm surprised that Dryden has such high support. You don't hear much about him in the media. All we hear about is ignatieff, who apparently isn't even doing that well (good riddance).

I'm pretty sure that another poll had them running neck and neck. The "don't know" column is still pretty high. I don't know who I am supporting yet. The only ones that I have dismissed have been the candidates who have already dropped out plus one or two others who I see as old guard.

[jbg]

I've been saying Harper could never beat Dryden since before the last election. Apparently the electoral public agrees with me: http://www.gandalfgroup.ca/downloads/Liber...lics_Choice.pdf

Now the Liberal Party just needs to get onside.

That would be icing.

[Rovik]

My take on how the other parties would like to see how the Liberal leadership concludes:

- Conservatives would love to see Bob Rae win and would hate to see Michael Ignatieff win.

- NDP are the reverse. Thye would love to see Ignatieff win and would hate to see Rae win.

- Bloc would love to see any non-Quebec born contender win (though i'm not sure about Dryden) and would hate to see Stephane Dion win.

[August1991]

I'm surprised that Dryden has such high support. You don't hear much about him in the media. All we hear about is ignatieff, who apparently isn't even doing that well (good riddance).

The sample was 1000 drawn from the general population with breakdowns according to whether the person supported the Liberals or not.

Dryden did well because of name recognition. That's all.

It will be the Liberal delegates who will select the next leader and this poll is only relevant in that it may influence their choice. I'm sure they will discount Dryden's good numbers. (In addition, the Liberals are not going to choose a leader who "speaks" French the way Dryden does.)

Instead, the delegates will focus on two points Paul Wells noticed too: Dion is doing well in Quebec, and Rae is doing well in Ontario. I'd add a third point that Rae's negatives are very high. There are many people who will simply not vote for the guy.

I have always felt that this would be a three-way race between Rae, Ignatieff and Dion. Increasingly, I think the Liberals will not choose Ignatieff. He is too right wing for them, and the Liberals are just not ready to move yet - and Ignatieff's not the guy to make them.

That leaves Dion and Rae. If Dion can show that he can win in Quebec (and I have no doubt he can), then it will be hard for Liberals not to choose him. The Liberals are the party of Ontario/Quebec.

As to Rae, I noted in a different thread my comments about an interview I heard on The Current. He is articulate and passionate. He would be a formidable opponent for Harper who can be bland and dispassionate.

[Ricki Bobbi]

I have always felt that this would be a three-way race between Rae, Ignatieff and Dion. Increasingly, I think the Liberals will not choose Ignatieff. He is too right wing for them, and the Liberals are just not ready to move yet - and Ignatieff's not the guy to make them.

That leaves Dion and Rae. If Dion can show that he can win in Quebec (and I have no doubt he can), then it will be hard for Liberals not to choose him. The Liberals are the party of Ontario/Quebec.

As to Rae, I noted in a different thread my comments about an interview I heard on The Current. He is articulate and passionate. He would be a formidable opponent for Harper who can be bland and dispassionate.

Was Martin really that far left?

I'm wondering if Ignatieff would move the party to the right or just prevent it from moving left?

Dion is only slightly ahead of Rae and Ignatieff in Quebec. How could he show he could win Quebec between now and December 3rd?

[gc1765]

I'm surprised that Dryden has such high support. You don't hear much about him in the media. All we hear about is ignatieff, who apparently isn't even doing that well (good riddance).

The sample was 1000 drawn from the general population with breakdowns according to whether the person supported the Liberals or not.

Dryden did well because of name recognition. That's all.

It will be the Liberal delegates who will select the next leader and this poll is only relevant in that it may influence their choice. I'm sure they will discount Dryden's good numbers. (In addition, the Liberals are not going to choose a leader who "speaks" French the way Dryden does.)

Instead, the delegates will focus on two points Paul Wells noticed too: Dion is doing well in Quebec, and Rae is doing well in Ontario. I'd add a third point that Rae's negatives are very high. There are many people who will simply not vote for the guy.

I have always felt that this would be a three-way race between Rae, Ignatieff and Dion. Increasingly, I think the Liberals will not choose Ignatieff. He is too right wing for them, and the Liberals are just not ready to move yet - and Ignatieff's not the guy to make them.

That leaves Dion and Rae. If Dion can show that he can win in Quebec (and I have no doubt he can), then it will be hard for Liberals not to choose him. The Liberals are the party of Ontario/Quebec.

As to Rae, I noted in a different thread my comments about an interview I heard on The Current. He is articulate and passionate. He would be a formidable opponent for Harper who can be bland and dispassionate.

Good post, I agree. I do have a question though. You are from Quebec, how well-liked is Rae in Quebec? I've heard that a lot of quebecers like him. Apparently he speaks french fluently, how important is that to someone from quebec? I'm surprised Rae is doing well in Ontario, I thought that his tenure as premier turned a lot of people off of him, but I guess there are people who either think he did a good job, or else they are willing to forgive him.

[Argus]

Well, at least Ignatieff is proving himself a Liberal. Pandering to immigrants by promising to virtually double immigration, and throwing wide the doors to family reunification prove he cares more about himself than Canada.

Those coming in under that category are the least educated and skilled and least likely to speak English or French. All the recent studies show immigrants doing worse economically than ever before, and family class immigrants are leading the way. So what Ignatieff is promising to do is increase poverty in Canada, increase the drain on social services and welfare, and cause more social upheaval, all in the name of what exactly?

"The Liberal Party is in the business of nation building!" he says.

Again, that's a typical liberal thing to say. It's sort of feel-good, but doesn't actually mean anything. Does Canada need to be built? I thought were were already a nation. And if we need to be rebuilt should it be by an ivory tower academic who stepped onto a university campus at eighteen and never left? An American university campus at that?

[geoffrey]

I'm wondering if Ignatieff would move the party to the right or just prevent it from moving left?

Ignatieff isn't a right-winger at all. His support of foreign intervention mirrors that of Pearson, with a bit more aggressive tone. Past that, every view of his is very socialist, very tax and spend. It seems from his speeches and platforms, he wants to be Trudeau II.

[August1991]

The last debate before delegate selection took place tonight.

In Liberal-World, Ignatieff is right wing:

When Iraq was raised, Ignatieff acknowledged that his support for the Kurds and Shia in Iraq is longstanding, since spending time with them in Iraq in 1992, when Saddam Hussein was in power.

Rae, the former NDP premier of Ontario, insisted that the record shows Ignatieff's stated support of U.S. intervention wasn't just to protect the Kurds and the Shia, but because of Bush's argument that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction, which turned out to be untrue.

Then:

Rae stressed that he sees Canada's main role to be that of a peacekeeper and a country that helps find resolution to conflicts.

"We are not part of an empire," Rae said. "We are a country that believes profoundly in peace and the resolution of conflict. That's Canada's mission for the world."

CTV

Apparently, in Liberal-World, Rae won the debate. Although Jason Cherniak is upset that his man Dion didn't get credit for the knock-out punch to Ignatieff.

[gc1765]

I don't know, they both hit at him pretty hard. Dion criticized ignatieff at least as much as rae did.

[August1991]

I don't know, they both hit at him pretty hard. Dion criticized ignatieff at least as much as rae did.

I just watched the exchange by download and Rae delivered the knock out punch to Ignatieff after Ignatieff explained why he supported the invasion in Iraq:

"Mr. Bush made the wrong decision," Rae insisted. "I haven't heard you say Mr. Bush made the wrong decision."

Rae finally wrested a stand from the rookie MP with the question: "The issue is do you stand with George Bush on the intervention in Iraq or not? That's the issue."

Ignatieff's reply was weak:

"George Bush has made every mistake in Iraq and then some," Ignatieff replied. "I don't stand with George Bush. I stand with the independence and freedom of the Kurdish and Shia people and believe that one day they will push this country out of the ditch."

Apart from the issue of Iraq itself, the subtext here is that Ignatieff is too American or too foreign to be Liberal leader. Rae's question implicitly referred to Ignatieff's loyalty.

On a related note, I was irritated by Ignatieff's constant remarks about his travels abroad and first hand experience. Such personal confidences should be used sparingly.

Also, I was surprised at Dion's poor English. He is eloquent in French. It must be frustrating for him.

[gc1765]

I just watched the exchange by download and Rae delivered the knock out punch to Ignatieff after Ignatieff explained why he supported the invasion in Iraq:

Rae probably does get credit for the "knock out" punch, but I believe it was Dion who iniated the attacks against ignatieff, if I remember correctly.

Ignatieff's reply was weak:

"George Bush has made every mistake in Iraq and then some," Ignatieff replied. "I don't stand with George Bush. I stand with the independence and freedom of the Kurdish and Shia people and believe that one day they will push this country out of the ditch."

True, he fumbled quite a bit on his response. It must be hard when both of the candidates you are debating are against you.

Also, I was surprised at Dion's poor English. He is eloquent in French. It must be frustrating for him.

Me too. At the beginning of the debate, he asked if he could answer in french (and was denied). But I was also surprised that the english-speaking candidates didn't speak french very well. In fact, some of them reverted to english when they were supposed to be answering in french. Dion is understandable in english, but I don't think he gets his point across as smoothly as he would like.

[jdobbin]

Hedy Fry has announced she is dropping out and throwing her support to Rae.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/25092006/2/nati...rship-race.html

I don't know that she really brings anything to Rae's campaign but momentum.

I don't think we will see a signficant movement of support except when Dryden or Kennedy make a move. The two of them have signficant Manitoba and Ontario support.

[Argus]

Hedy Fry has announced she is dropping out and throwing her support to Rae.

Hedy Fry had no support. In the poll the Star is touting today, 3000 Liberals were asked to choose their first, second, and third choice.

Not a single respondent chose Fry.

"There were over 3,000 opportunities for people to pick her (as first, second or third choice)," said Graves.

"She literally got zero. I have never seen that in over 20 years of polling."

Fry is a joke, a shrill, politically correct harpy who is only in parliament because of the idiocy of the policial system. She's someone you wouldn't loan your lawn mower to, for Gods sakes.

And Rae brings a lot of baggage with him, especially in Ontario. Mushy Liberals might be able to tolerate him, but if he becomes Liberal leader it will energize the conservatives in that province, and drive a lot of "Harris Conservatives" down to the polls to keep him out.

[jdobbin]

And Rae brings a lot of baggage with him, especially in Ontario. Mushy Liberals might be able to tolerate him, but if he becomes Liberal leader it will energize the conservatives in that province, and drive a lot of "Harris Conservatives" down to the polls to keep him out.

I don't really know much about Rae as a Liberal.

Certainly he has a record in Ontario that will challenge him.

Many of the heavy hitters in Manitoba are behind Dryden or Kennedy. I don't know if either of those two can continue much longer either but they may hold out to have a signficant impact on the convention.

[gc1765]

Hedy Fry has announced she is dropping out and throwing her support to Rae.

It's about time. She never had any chance.

[August1991]

But I was also surprised that the english-speaking candidates didn't speak french very well. In fact, some of them reverted to english when they were supposed to be answering in french. Dion is understandable in english, but I don't think he gets his point across as smoothly as he would like.

Only Rae and Ignatieff can speak French with any degree of facility (about as good as Dion in English). Dryden's French is abominable to non-existent.

For this fact alone, only Rae, Dion and Ignatieff can become Liberal leader. It's interesting that the three all had politically well-connected fathers who long ago urged them to learn the other official language. Rae's and Ignatieff's fathers were senior civil servants in Ottawa. Dion's father was a well known federalist political science professor at Laval University. He was a contemporary of Levesque and Trudeau.

[kimmy]

Hedy Fry has announced she is dropping out and throwing her support to Rae.

It's about time. She never had any chance.

I don't know... I hear she's huge in Prince George....

-k

[Remiel]

The notion that anyone in this province actually liked Harris is completely repulsive to me. The guy had a phony smile to compete with the best of them, or rather, the worst of them. I couldn't believe they voted in the guy for a second term of punishment. I think the election before his second term was actually when I first got into politics, I think.

I stated before that I thought that making Rae leader of the Liberals would just be dumb. I've sinced softened my opinion a bit to being merely unwise. I suppose there is an outside posibility that he could pull it off, but I have my doubts.

[August1991]

This is the weekend where the Liberals have their delegate selection meetings. I guess Kennedy is desperate but he's right. Concerning the controversy about members signed up by Volpe and Ignatieff:

Rival leadership hopeful Gerard Kennedy said the irregularities demonstrate that the party itself needs to be reformed, with tighter membership eligibility rules, tough sanctions against those who break the rules, and checks on the leader's power.

"I think there's a sense that people can do things with impunity because they're going to elect a leader who has all the power in the world and there's no such thing as consequence for anything," Kennedy said in an interview.

"You basically have a presidential system without any checks and balances . . . I believe that's unhealthy."

CP